At the risk of reviving the old chestnut Abbott and Costello routine, the Cubs quest for a second baseman and the stockpiling of questionable material to that end is pretty amusing. Having bid farewell to Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist this off-season and Daniel Murphy last, none of whom exactly lit the world on fire, rumors have it the Cubs are interested in a pair of disappointing former stars, Jason Kipnis and Scooter Gennett. Already on the roster are David Bote, epic flop Daniel Descalso, Nico Hoerner, Robel Garcia, and Ian Happ. Enough already.
I suppose I Don't Know's on third should the Cubs trade Kris Bryant, which, incidentally, is one of the dumbest rumors perpetrated by the sportswriting profession in modern times. It seems to be based on the notion the Cubs need to get under the salary limit right now, among other things. Actually, the salary total at the end of the season determines any luxury tax penalty, so they could easily add salary if they wanted to do so and just dump it at the trade deadline if they are out of contention. I mean, they could still trade Bryant, but it means giving up on the season, which the Red Sox have done in trying to peddle Betts, but why on earth would they want to do that in a pretty competitive division they should be favored to win.
Saturday, February 8, 2020
Friday, December 13, 2019
Bryant
For some reason everyone seems obsessed with trading away All-Star players in their prime with multiple years of team control. Hot stove madness? Okay, maybe if you are out of contention at the trade deadline, but, for now, the Cubs have to be in win now mode and remain that way through 2021 when several of their stars become eligible for free agency.
Realistically, for a team that needs to figure out how to avoid falling apart in September, even considering parting with any of the core players is foolishness. Taking Kris Bryant as an example, he was one of the best players in MLB in his first two seasons, then suffered some nagging injuries in 2018 and 2019 that coincided with the team's late season failures. So how does trading him away solve that issue? Thankfully, the market for Bryant has to be among win now teams who are unlikely to trade off key elements of their roster for a player likely to command an enormous multi-year contract in two years. Fortunately for the Cubs, they are discovering this fact right now.
Similarly, the idea of trading Contreras borders on absurdity. Nobody trades the best offensive catcher in the league for prospects. Rebuilding teams make that move, not contenders.
If the Cubs weren't owned by a bunch of right wing billionaires who don't like to pay taxes, they would bite the bullet and get some of the free agent talent that is sitting around and is actually quite affordable. I'm thinking here of the Japanese center-fielder Akiyama as well as the likely ex-Dodger Ryu, who is a solid #2 starter when healthy.
The Cubs could easily re-sign Strop and pick up some free agent talent to fill out the bullpen without breaking the bank.
They have already freed up $20 MM by letting Hamels go, a move I kind of question. They also lose Zobrist's $12.5MM plus a smattering of money from dumping a couple of journeyman relievers.
If the Cubs really need to dump salary, they might try trading the disappointing Heyward ($20MM for who knows how long) and Lester if they want to be ruthless about it. Lester is nowhere near the pitcher he once was and at $27MM clearly an albatross.
Before panicking, they should consider that right now they are likely a 90 win team. Not many teams can survive injuries to Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, and Bryant in September, as well as the loss of a front line starter in Hamels through the second half and come out on top.
Realistically, for a team that needs to figure out how to avoid falling apart in September, even considering parting with any of the core players is foolishness. Taking Kris Bryant as an example, he was one of the best players in MLB in his first two seasons, then suffered some nagging injuries in 2018 and 2019 that coincided with the team's late season failures. So how does trading him away solve that issue? Thankfully, the market for Bryant has to be among win now teams who are unlikely to trade off key elements of their roster for a player likely to command an enormous multi-year contract in two years. Fortunately for the Cubs, they are discovering this fact right now.
Similarly, the idea of trading Contreras borders on absurdity. Nobody trades the best offensive catcher in the league for prospects. Rebuilding teams make that move, not contenders.
If the Cubs weren't owned by a bunch of right wing billionaires who don't like to pay taxes, they would bite the bullet and get some of the free agent talent that is sitting around and is actually quite affordable. I'm thinking here of the Japanese center-fielder Akiyama as well as the likely ex-Dodger Ryu, who is a solid #2 starter when healthy.
The Cubs could easily re-sign Strop and pick up some free agent talent to fill out the bullpen without breaking the bank.
They have already freed up $20 MM by letting Hamels go, a move I kind of question. They also lose Zobrist's $12.5MM plus a smattering of money from dumping a couple of journeyman relievers.
If the Cubs really need to dump salary, they might try trading the disappointing Heyward ($20MM for who knows how long) and Lester if they want to be ruthless about it. Lester is nowhere near the pitcher he once was and at $27MM clearly an albatross.
Before panicking, they should consider that right now they are likely a 90 win team. Not many teams can survive injuries to Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, and Bryant in September, as well as the loss of a front line starter in Hamels through the second half and come out on top.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
What do the Cubs Want at Trade Deadline?
A good question. Also their approach at this point seems both tentative and inscrutable. I mean to say, other than a fascination with having a third catcher who provides a veteran presence and reminds one of David Ross, what does Maldonado bring to the table, especially when you have to give up a not inconsiderable player in Montgomery. Montgomery was admittedly having an awful year, but he had been injured early in the season and was coming off a season in which he filled in quite capably for Yu Darvish. The Cubs have a history under Epstein and Hoyer of paying bid for a player they want, but, come on, Maldonado is not Chapman or Quintana.
Actually, most of the moves the Cubs have made this year have been pretty marginal. They started out with a need to stabilize the rotation, which they accomplished rather painlessly by picking up Hamels option. After that, they looked for infield help given having to survive Russell's suspension. Enter Descalso, a major flop who is likely completely washed up. Exit Zobrist. Exit Russell. Enter belatedly Robel Garcia who shows some promise but strikes out all the time unless he hits a home run. (Just as an aside, the Cubs optioned Ian Happ to AAA purgatory for striking out about a third of the time. Garcia has struck out 44% of the time and has been promoted to leadoff man. Go figure).
Now the Cubs seem to be shopping for a reserve infielder on the trade market even though they have a surfeit of them. Personally, I would forget about second base unless they can get Merrifield from KC for next to nothing which is not going to happen.
The Cubs also think they need a right-handed hitting platoon outfielder as a rental. Castellanos of Detroit fits the bill and I suppose he's OK, but the guy is a butcher in the field. If you think Schwarber is weak defensively, you have not seen anything yet.
Which brings up the only need the Cubs must fill, the bullpen. Early in the off-season, the Cubs announced a desire to strengthen their bullpen given the injury to their would-be closer Morrow. Also that they were broke. Enter a cavalcade of rehab cases and washed up veterans. Only Ryan has proved even marginally useful, the rest have been pretty awful or hurt. Maybe Wick has some talent. Strop and Edwards have regressed, Strop probably because of injury, Edwards because he has become something of a head case.
Enter Kimbrel, who is defensible acquisition, though he has been rushed into duty with mixed results. Enter also Holland who is another rehab project though he may be able to get guys out if you pick his spots. Enter also Phelps, who is actually pretty good and may be the best cheap pickup of the bunch.
I don't think the Cubs really know what they want at this stage or what they are prepared to give up, so I rather think a blockbuster deal is off the table. Maybe that is for the best. To illustrate the point, they are apparently shopping Maldonado. After all, despite losing at least ten games owing to their bullpen, they are just a game out of first in the division, one which pits three evenly matched rivals in what is likely to be a dogfight.
Which kind of brings me to tonight's game and their road woes in general and an admonition not to panic. With the exception of the Dodgers, all these contenders both in the Central and the East are pretty evenly matched. Even against the Dodgers, who are running away with their division, the Cubs have played pretty evenly in tough, close games.
One cannot say just how much home field matters in these contests, which is pretty much borne out by the results so far. Tuesday's loss to the Cards is a good example. It might have gone either way. Wainwright and Darvish both pitched well. The Cubs lost on a home run. Schwarber failed to come through with the bases loaded and two outs. The Cubs ran into a stupid, strike 'em out, throw him out double play in the sixth, which preceded a Rizzo double and walks to Baez and Caratini that set up the Schwarber at-bat. Might just as easily have gone the other way.
Actually, most of the moves the Cubs have made this year have been pretty marginal. They started out with a need to stabilize the rotation, which they accomplished rather painlessly by picking up Hamels option. After that, they looked for infield help given having to survive Russell's suspension. Enter Descalso, a major flop who is likely completely washed up. Exit Zobrist. Exit Russell. Enter belatedly Robel Garcia who shows some promise but strikes out all the time unless he hits a home run. (Just as an aside, the Cubs optioned Ian Happ to AAA purgatory for striking out about a third of the time. Garcia has struck out 44% of the time and has been promoted to leadoff man. Go figure).
Now the Cubs seem to be shopping for a reserve infielder on the trade market even though they have a surfeit of them. Personally, I would forget about second base unless they can get Merrifield from KC for next to nothing which is not going to happen.
The Cubs also think they need a right-handed hitting platoon outfielder as a rental. Castellanos of Detroit fits the bill and I suppose he's OK, but the guy is a butcher in the field. If you think Schwarber is weak defensively, you have not seen anything yet.
Which brings up the only need the Cubs must fill, the bullpen. Early in the off-season, the Cubs announced a desire to strengthen their bullpen given the injury to their would-be closer Morrow. Also that they were broke. Enter a cavalcade of rehab cases and washed up veterans. Only Ryan has proved even marginally useful, the rest have been pretty awful or hurt. Maybe Wick has some talent. Strop and Edwards have regressed, Strop probably because of injury, Edwards because he has become something of a head case.
Enter Kimbrel, who is defensible acquisition, though he has been rushed into duty with mixed results. Enter also Holland who is another rehab project though he may be able to get guys out if you pick his spots. Enter also Phelps, who is actually pretty good and may be the best cheap pickup of the bunch.
I don't think the Cubs really know what they want at this stage or what they are prepared to give up, so I rather think a blockbuster deal is off the table. Maybe that is for the best. To illustrate the point, they are apparently shopping Maldonado. After all, despite losing at least ten games owing to their bullpen, they are just a game out of first in the division, one which pits three evenly matched rivals in what is likely to be a dogfight.
Which kind of brings me to tonight's game and their road woes in general and an admonition not to panic. With the exception of the Dodgers, all these contenders both in the Central and the East are pretty evenly matched. Even against the Dodgers, who are running away with their division, the Cubs have played pretty evenly in tough, close games.
One cannot say just how much home field matters in these contests, which is pretty much borne out by the results so far. Tuesday's loss to the Cards is a good example. It might have gone either way. Wainwright and Darvish both pitched well. The Cubs lost on a home run. Schwarber failed to come through with the bases loaded and two outs. The Cubs ran into a stupid, strike 'em out, throw him out double play in the sixth, which preceded a Rizzo double and walks to Baez and Caratini that set up the Schwarber at-bat. Might just as easily have gone the other way.
Friday, July 26, 2019
Strop, Maddon, Loss
The Cubs continue to under-perform on the road. Friday nights loss continued the trend, the third game blown by the bullpen in this stretch and the second blown by Pedro Strop. There seems to be something wrong with Strop either physically or mentally or both. In any case, he is a disaster this season as compared to his prior years of creditable service. So, incidentally, is Carl Edwards and was the recently traded Mike Montgomery. These guys were lynch pins of the Cubs bullpen in former years and highlight the big gap Epstein and Hoyer and Maddon need to fill to bring this team into and through the playoffs.
Notwithstanding the aformentioned failures, I have to question Maddon's decisions in almost all these defeats. I've always thought Maddon was a terrific clubhouse manager and a questionable and sometimes downright awful field manager. Tonight's game is a great example. Hendricks is pitching a two-hit shutout through five innings. Bote hits a two-run homer to give them a lead. Maddon pinch hits for Hendricks, the next batter, using Schwarber against a lefty. Schwarber predictably strikes out. Hendricks pitch count was getting up there, but you could tell even in the dugout he wanted to give them another inning and might easily have done so.
So this leaves four innings for the beleaguered bullpen to fill. Ryan comes in and gets two outs sandwiched around a walk. Why not let Ryan finish the inning? Instead Cishek comes in and makes heavy weather of things before eventually getting the third out. How much worse might it have been to let Ryan finish the inning?
So Cishek gets two outs in the seventh sandwiched around a walk. Kintzler replaces Cishek and gives up a single to Yelich to bring the score to 2-1 before getting the final out. The following inning, Kintzler begins an inning, like Cishek before after working out of a jam, by getting into trouble. He leaves with two men on and is replaced by Strop who blows the game by giving up a bases loaded single to give the Brewers the lead.
Now it is hard to predict guys who will be off or just plain bad, but continually putting pitchers who are struggling like Edwards Sunday and Strop Monday and Friday into game situations is just dumb. Also you have to wonder why taking out Hendricks early was smart and whether removing a pitcher who needed only a single out to escape a non-threatening situation was smart and whether sticking with pitchers who escaped trouble in stressful partial innings was smart.
I happen not to think so, but Maddon does it all the time and it does cost the Cubs victories. I reckon the Cubs bullpen has lost at least ten winnable games this year, maybe more. It is going to take more than Derek Holland to remedy this problem.
Notwithstanding the aformentioned failures, I have to question Maddon's decisions in almost all these defeats. I've always thought Maddon was a terrific clubhouse manager and a questionable and sometimes downright awful field manager. Tonight's game is a great example. Hendricks is pitching a two-hit shutout through five innings. Bote hits a two-run homer to give them a lead. Maddon pinch hits for Hendricks, the next batter, using Schwarber against a lefty. Schwarber predictably strikes out. Hendricks pitch count was getting up there, but you could tell even in the dugout he wanted to give them another inning and might easily have done so.
So this leaves four innings for the beleaguered bullpen to fill. Ryan comes in and gets two outs sandwiched around a walk. Why not let Ryan finish the inning? Instead Cishek comes in and makes heavy weather of things before eventually getting the third out. How much worse might it have been to let Ryan finish the inning?
So Cishek gets two outs in the seventh sandwiched around a walk. Kintzler replaces Cishek and gives up a single to Yelich to bring the score to 2-1 before getting the final out. The following inning, Kintzler begins an inning, like Cishek before after working out of a jam, by getting into trouble. He leaves with two men on and is replaced by Strop who blows the game by giving up a bases loaded single to give the Brewers the lead.
Now it is hard to predict guys who will be off or just plain bad, but continually putting pitchers who are struggling like Edwards Sunday and Strop Monday and Friday into game situations is just dumb. Also you have to wonder why taking out Hendricks early was smart and whether removing a pitcher who needed only a single out to escape a non-threatening situation was smart and whether sticking with pitchers who escaped trouble in stressful partial innings was smart.
I happen not to think so, but Maddon does it all the time and it does cost the Cubs victories. I reckon the Cubs bullpen has lost at least ten winnable games this year, maybe more. It is going to take more than Derek Holland to remedy this problem.
Thursday, April 4, 2019
Another Meltdown
Were it not for the by and large complete bullpen collapses in three of their first five games, the Cubs would be 4-1. The only unwinnable game was Monday night. Obviously this can’t go on. The Cubs are counting on these guys righting the ship. The whole of the offseason strategy was not to go for a big name like Kimbrel or Britton or Miller and to make minor patches in the hopes the existing core would return to form.
Make no mistake, the Cubs folded in September not just because they stopped hitting, but because their relief pitching fell apart in the aftermath of injuries to Morrow and Strop. Theoretically the remaining staff just ran out of gas or failed to perform when forced into unexpected roles down the stretch. Frankly, I bought this line too.
Now, I’m not so sure. Thus far, the only reliever whose performance so far supports this argument is Kintzler. Maybe what we are seeing is what they are, which is mediocre journeymen who are on again/off again players and nothing more. I hope not. If so, we are likely to be disappointed once again.
The key issue with the Cubs pitching is their failure to develop homegrown talent throughout the Epstein era, really streching back to end end of the Tribune regime. This cannot be fixed on the fly. Right now, aside from Cedeno and Barnette who are hurt, the only help on the farm would be Mills and Maples.
Make no mistake, the Cubs folded in September not just because they stopped hitting, but because their relief pitching fell apart in the aftermath of injuries to Morrow and Strop. Theoretically the remaining staff just ran out of gas or failed to perform when forced into unexpected roles down the stretch. Frankly, I bought this line too.
Now, I’m not so sure. Thus far, the only reliever whose performance so far supports this argument is Kintzler. Maybe what we are seeing is what they are, which is mediocre journeymen who are on again/off again players and nothing more. I hope not. If so, we are likely to be disappointed once again.
The key issue with the Cubs pitching is their failure to develop homegrown talent throughout the Epstein era, really streching back to end end of the Tribune regime. This cannot be fixed on the fly. Right now, aside from Cedeno and Barnette who are hurt, the only help on the farm would be Mills and Maples.
Sunday, March 31, 2019
An Ugly Beginning
Everyone knew the Cubs bullpen would be an issue at least until their closer returned, but the performance in Texas was really pretty awful. To score 29 runs and wind up losing two of three games to one of the worst teams in baseball has got to be of some concern. Of course, Darvish's dreadful performance and Hamels mediocre start had something to do with it, but both those guys left with a lead.
What I find of rather more concern than just two days of crappy games, though, is the apparent lack of defined roles in the game plan and the lack of confidence being demonstrated by Maddon in his staff. Looking back on Saturday's game, for example, I know that the Cubs had some concerns mapping out the rotation with two off-days breaking up the first five games. So the decision to bring in Quintana in the fourth inning makes some sense, especially as it pushes his first start into the Milwaukee series and Quintana owns the Brewers. Quintana pitched pretty well under the circumstances. He gave them four innings, left with the lead, and was unlucky to have been tagged for the two runs the Rangers scored in the 7th.
Still, the logical long men are Chatwood and Montgomery, so right there it looks like nobody believes in them in that spot. Actually, with the exception of bringing on Quintana early on Saturday, the rest of Maddon's bullpen usage was pretty much by the book. Of course, with the exception of Cishek and Kintzler, nobody seems to have read the same book.
I frankly don't understand why Maddon is determined to employ Edwards as his 8th inning guy despite his performance in high leverage spots like that over the past two years. Edwards has great stuff, but he seems lost these days. Cishek is the guy to use in those spots. Edwards also seems to have changed his delivery from the windup to some sort of hesitation move that the umpires announced on Sunday was illegal, so it seems it is back to the drawing board for Edwards anyway.
After watching them pitch this weekend, I don't really know about Darvish and Chatwood rounding back to form that quickly. Hamels I have no doubt will bounce back. I'm also pretty sure the remainder of the bullpen will be adequate for now except for Edwards, who, as I have noted, seems to have lost confidence.
I mean, if you average 10 runs a game, how good does your bullpen need to be. Not that great, I suppose, but better than they showed in Texas.
What I find of rather more concern than just two days of crappy games, though, is the apparent lack of defined roles in the game plan and the lack of confidence being demonstrated by Maddon in his staff. Looking back on Saturday's game, for example, I know that the Cubs had some concerns mapping out the rotation with two off-days breaking up the first five games. So the decision to bring in Quintana in the fourth inning makes some sense, especially as it pushes his first start into the Milwaukee series and Quintana owns the Brewers. Quintana pitched pretty well under the circumstances. He gave them four innings, left with the lead, and was unlucky to have been tagged for the two runs the Rangers scored in the 7th.
Still, the logical long men are Chatwood and Montgomery, so right there it looks like nobody believes in them in that spot. Actually, with the exception of bringing on Quintana early on Saturday, the rest of Maddon's bullpen usage was pretty much by the book. Of course, with the exception of Cishek and Kintzler, nobody seems to have read the same book.
I frankly don't understand why Maddon is determined to employ Edwards as his 8th inning guy despite his performance in high leverage spots like that over the past two years. Edwards has great stuff, but he seems lost these days. Cishek is the guy to use in those spots. Edwards also seems to have changed his delivery from the windup to some sort of hesitation move that the umpires announced on Sunday was illegal, so it seems it is back to the drawing board for Edwards anyway.
After watching them pitch this weekend, I don't really know about Darvish and Chatwood rounding back to form that quickly. Hamels I have no doubt will bounce back. I'm also pretty sure the remainder of the bullpen will be adequate for now except for Edwards, who, as I have noted, seems to have lost confidence.
I mean, if you average 10 runs a game, how good does your bullpen need to be. Not that great, I suppose, but better than they showed in Texas.
Sunday, March 24, 2019
Latest Moves
I was surprised to see that the Cubs optioned Ian Happ to AAA. Happ has had a bad spring and continues to strike out too often. On the other hand, he does get on base. One supposes this is a temporary measure along the lines of the Schwarber demotion earlier in his career.
People are speculating about the Cubs searching the waiver wire for a center-fielder, presumably a left-handed hitter. Kind of strange from my viewpoint. The team can field an all left-handed or all right-handed outfield with the players who remain in that Heyward can play a more than adequate center field to spell Almora. Anybody available who has been cut is likely a worse alternative than Happ. Also, Zagunis had had a terrific spring and should make the roster even if Happ were to stick. Personally, I'd like to see them dump Heyward. The Giants are apparently looking for outfield help.
Finally, the Cubs have finally given up on Duensing. Picking up Collins on a major league deal is kind of odd given the number of other options they have, but anyone is better than Duensing at this point. Now, if they finish the job and dump Kintzler as well...
People are speculating about the Cubs searching the waiver wire for a center-fielder, presumably a left-handed hitter. Kind of strange from my viewpoint. The team can field an all left-handed or all right-handed outfield with the players who remain in that Heyward can play a more than adequate center field to spell Almora. Anybody available who has been cut is likely a worse alternative than Happ. Also, Zagunis had had a terrific spring and should make the roster even if Happ were to stick. Personally, I'd like to see them dump Heyward. The Giants are apparently looking for outfield help.
Finally, the Cubs have finally given up on Duensing. Picking up Collins on a major league deal is kind of odd given the number of other options they have, but anyone is better than Duensing at this point. Now, if they finish the job and dump Kintzler as well...
Monday, February 11, 2019
Pitchers and Catchers Report
It has been a relatively dull off-season for the Cubs as well as for the headline free agents. I was not surprised by the Cubs not making any really significant moves this winter. They evidently believe they have the players they need to succeed. You cannot blame them for this. The team won 95 games despite losing its closer mid-season and its replacement closer for most of September, despite a key injury to Kris Bryant, despite the suspension of their starting shortstop, and despite losing two of their five starting pitchers for most of the year. The only surprise might be they did not go out and get stronger bullpen pieces, especially left-handers. However, some of the under the radar pickups are fairly intriguing.
The big surprise of the off-season has been the lack of market movement for Harper and Machado. There is a lot of discontent on the players side about this, even suggestions of complicity among the owners to depress their market value. Although I always support the workers point-of-view, I have my doubts this situation is not just he result of serious analysis on the part of the league's front offices.
What I mean here is that, realistically, is one guy worth a ten year commitment of something like a fourth of your payroll. Most of the big contract position players have been long-term flops. Did Albert Pujols or Robinson Cano bring home championships to their respective franchises? Don't all these guys turn into dead weights as they age? Granted, Harper and Machado are hitting the free agent market in their mid-twenties, but ten years is a big gamble on any one player.
You can argue that Machado brought the Dodgers to the World Series, but in his years with the Orioles, his role was not transformative. This is even more the case with Harper who was not able to carry the Nationals beyond the first round despite having a pretty solid team behind him.
I rather think teams are going to shoot for shorter-term contracts for this type of player, maybe even one to three year deals at really exorbitant numbers with opt-outs thrown in as incentives. Of course, the Cubs got the worst of both worlds in Heyward who has turned out to stink most of the time and is pulling down $20MM a season. Should he turn it around and play back to his earlier form, he will opt out; should he continue to disappoint, the Cubs are stuck.
The big surprise of the off-season has been the lack of market movement for Harper and Machado. There is a lot of discontent on the players side about this, even suggestions of complicity among the owners to depress their market value. Although I always support the workers point-of-view, I have my doubts this situation is not just he result of serious analysis on the part of the league's front offices.
What I mean here is that, realistically, is one guy worth a ten year commitment of something like a fourth of your payroll. Most of the big contract position players have been long-term flops. Did Albert Pujols or Robinson Cano bring home championships to their respective franchises? Don't all these guys turn into dead weights as they age? Granted, Harper and Machado are hitting the free agent market in their mid-twenties, but ten years is a big gamble on any one player.
You can argue that Machado brought the Dodgers to the World Series, but in his years with the Orioles, his role was not transformative. This is even more the case with Harper who was not able to carry the Nationals beyond the first round despite having a pretty solid team behind him.
I rather think teams are going to shoot for shorter-term contracts for this type of player, maybe even one to three year deals at really exorbitant numbers with opt-outs thrown in as incentives. Of course, the Cubs got the worst of both worlds in Heyward who has turned out to stink most of the time and is pulling down $20MM a season. Should he turn it around and play back to his earlier form, he will opt out; should he continue to disappoint, the Cubs are stuck.
Sunday, December 23, 2018
Left Behind?
So far not much action from the Cubs this winter, much to the consternation of many fans who expected big moves toward Harper or Machado or both. I've got to say that I am not of that number for reasons already explained in earlier posts.
I'm pretty certain the Cubs thinking goes along these lines, viz., we were good enough to win 95 games last year despite injuries to Darvish, Chatwood's complete meltdown, Morrow's and Bryant's injuries, Contreras's second half slump and Russell's suspension. Just assuming Bryant is back, Contreras gets some regular time off and Darvish is able to join the rotation, the team is in pretty good shape. Two out of three of these things happening wins five more games for sure.
Balanced against this is the fact the Cardinals and Reds have made big moves in the off-season. Probably not enough for the Reds to make a run, but the Cards are going to be serious contenders. Oddly enough, the Brewers have not made much of a splash. Personally, I always thought the Brewers were not as good a team as they proved last season and that they will likely regress.
Epstein and Hoyer have said they need to shed salary in order to make a big play. I take them at their word. The question is who gets shed to break some logjams. They have fourteen pitchers on the 40-man roster who are virtual locks to make the team including Morrow who will open the season on the DL. It doesn't include any prospects. It does include at least three pieces of deadwood, viz., Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler. My guess is they will retain Chatwood largely because nobody wants him and they need to rebuild some of his value. Also, he gives them some insurance against injury to any of the starters and he might come back. So Duensing and Kintzler are sure to be marketed. I would expect for low-level minor leaguers. Still, that doesn't save you much.
Most of the rest of the roster is set in stone right now with the exception of Russell who is suspended and not counted on the 40-man tally. The Cubs might decide to move players like Schwarber or Almora or Happ or Bote, but the real question is what they need and what they get in return that is better than their current holdings. I expect the answer to that is negative. Plus it doesn't save much money.
The one guy who would save substantial cash is Heyward. Heyward is ultimately completely expendable despite his relative youth and defensive prowess. The problem is his contract, which, aside from overpaying him, is full of loopholes and opt-outs so that any team taking him on is likely to be saddled with him for a long time if he flops or lose him almost immediately if he succeeds. The Cubs would need to subsidize any deal or take a similarly bad contract or virtually nothing in return.
Personally, I think the Cubs need a dominant left-handed reliever more than a Harper or Machado who will burden them with a ten year commitment that will entirely skew their salary structure and limit their flexibility for a long time to come. I was disappointed they were unable to reel in Miller, though, in the long run, he might be a big risk especially in a three-year deal. I'd like to see them make a run at Britton.
I'm pretty certain the Cubs thinking goes along these lines, viz., we were good enough to win 95 games last year despite injuries to Darvish, Chatwood's complete meltdown, Morrow's and Bryant's injuries, Contreras's second half slump and Russell's suspension. Just assuming Bryant is back, Contreras gets some regular time off and Darvish is able to join the rotation, the team is in pretty good shape. Two out of three of these things happening wins five more games for sure.
Balanced against this is the fact the Cardinals and Reds have made big moves in the off-season. Probably not enough for the Reds to make a run, but the Cards are going to be serious contenders. Oddly enough, the Brewers have not made much of a splash. Personally, I always thought the Brewers were not as good a team as they proved last season and that they will likely regress.
Epstein and Hoyer have said they need to shed salary in order to make a big play. I take them at their word. The question is who gets shed to break some logjams. They have fourteen pitchers on the 40-man roster who are virtual locks to make the team including Morrow who will open the season on the DL. It doesn't include any prospects. It does include at least three pieces of deadwood, viz., Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler. My guess is they will retain Chatwood largely because nobody wants him and they need to rebuild some of his value. Also, he gives them some insurance against injury to any of the starters and he might come back. So Duensing and Kintzler are sure to be marketed. I would expect for low-level minor leaguers. Still, that doesn't save you much.
Most of the rest of the roster is set in stone right now with the exception of Russell who is suspended and not counted on the 40-man tally. The Cubs might decide to move players like Schwarber or Almora or Happ or Bote, but the real question is what they need and what they get in return that is better than their current holdings. I expect the answer to that is negative. Plus it doesn't save much money.
The one guy who would save substantial cash is Heyward. Heyward is ultimately completely expendable despite his relative youth and defensive prowess. The problem is his contract, which, aside from overpaying him, is full of loopholes and opt-outs so that any team taking him on is likely to be saddled with him for a long time if he flops or lose him almost immediately if he succeeds. The Cubs would need to subsidize any deal or take a similarly bad contract or virtually nothing in return.
Personally, I think the Cubs need a dominant left-handed reliever more than a Harper or Machado who will burden them with a ten year commitment that will entirely skew their salary structure and limit their flexibility for a long time to come. I was disappointed they were unable to reel in Miller, though, in the long run, he might be a big risk especially in a three-year deal. I'd like to see them make a run at Britton.
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Not Much Activity
I still hold to the opinion the Cubs are going to stand pat through this off-season without any blockbuster moves.
So far, the team has not made a major roster move. They tendered pretty much everyone who was expected to be retained. One surprise was trading LaStella, but, again, LaStella was basically a pinch-hitter who occasionally played second or third base.
The Cubs did tender Addison Russell. It now appears they are more or less committed to his rehabilitation. This is pretty much confirmed by the various manipulations in picking up Torreyes, dumping him, then picking up Descalso. They are obviously looking for a utility infielder who can back up at shortstop until Russell comes off suspension. I suppose Descalso is as good an option as any. One guy I thought they might go after is Marwin Gonzalez, who is a kind of poor man's Ben Zobrist and has a history as a Cubs farmhand. I expect there it would involve too much of a commitment or too much money.
The last piece to fall is likely to be the acquisition of a solid left-handed reliever. I thought that might be Andrew Miller. Maybe it still is him.
All through the off-season, there have been rumblings about payroll and having to dump salary in order to make a big move or even a series of smaller moves that increase payroll. My own suspicion is the salary dump is Heyward and they just cannot get takers. Think about it. The Cubs have got virtually nothing in the way of consistent production from Heyward other than his defense and they are paying him big bucks. I'd sure like to see him traded. It opens up a lot of possibilities.
So far, the team has not made a major roster move. They tendered pretty much everyone who was expected to be retained. One surprise was trading LaStella, but, again, LaStella was basically a pinch-hitter who occasionally played second or third base.
The Cubs did tender Addison Russell. It now appears they are more or less committed to his rehabilitation. This is pretty much confirmed by the various manipulations in picking up Torreyes, dumping him, then picking up Descalso. They are obviously looking for a utility infielder who can back up at shortstop until Russell comes off suspension. I suppose Descalso is as good an option as any. One guy I thought they might go after is Marwin Gonzalez, who is a kind of poor man's Ben Zobrist and has a history as a Cubs farmhand. I expect there it would involve too much of a commitment or too much money.
The last piece to fall is likely to be the acquisition of a solid left-handed reliever. I thought that might be Andrew Miller. Maybe it still is him.
All through the off-season, there have been rumblings about payroll and having to dump salary in order to make a big move or even a series of smaller moves that increase payroll. My own suspicion is the salary dump is Heyward and they just cannot get takers. Think about it. The Cubs have got virtually nothing in the way of consistent production from Heyward other than his defense and they are paying him big bucks. I'd sure like to see him traded. It opens up a lot of possibilities.
Monday, November 5, 2018
Post Season Developments
The Cubs more or less did the expected with their free agents. Notably, they exercised their options on Strop and Hamels. They declined their option on Kintzler, though, by some sort of odd contract arrangement, he got to stay on anyway by exercising his player option at half-price. I rather think the Cubs will decide to eat a sizable portion of that money just to get rid of him in a trade.
In the Hamels deal, they decided to unload Smyly to the Rangers. In a way, this was a clever trick on the Cubs part, as they managed to recover most of the cash they would have obtained from the Rangers had they bought out Hamels contract. Smyly was never going to fit into an already crowded rotation had the Cubs held on. He will help Texas if he is fully recovered.
Among other developments, it is reported the Cubs are not inclined to extend Joe Maddon in the off-season, though they have not closed the door on a renewal at the close of the 2019 season. You wonder whether Epstein's comments about evaluating performance as opposed to promise applied as well to Maddon. Maddon has been quite successful in his stint with the Cubs, losing twice in the NLCS and winning a championship. 2018, though, was a letdown, however, of major proportions. Personally, I am OK with Maddon, though his in-game management and bullpen decisions have cost the team wins and his relentless self-promotion is wearing a bit thin.
Another sphinx-like Epstein statement is also taking shape with respect to Addison Russell as it now appears they are having second thoughts about just dumping the guy if they ever had first thoughts on the matter. The Cubs, and most major league franchises, have never had a lot of qualms about employing bad actors and off the field jerks in general. With respect to the Cubs in the Epstein era, witness Chapman and Murphy, as well as their hushing up whatever bad things Castro was up to while with the team,
I've always liked Russell as a player, though it seems he has turned out to be a jerk off the field. Look for the Cubs to offer him a contract laden with rehabilitation incentives and promises on his part to reform.
In the Hamels deal, they decided to unload Smyly to the Rangers. In a way, this was a clever trick on the Cubs part, as they managed to recover most of the cash they would have obtained from the Rangers had they bought out Hamels contract. Smyly was never going to fit into an already crowded rotation had the Cubs held on. He will help Texas if he is fully recovered.
Among other developments, it is reported the Cubs are not inclined to extend Joe Maddon in the off-season, though they have not closed the door on a renewal at the close of the 2019 season. You wonder whether Epstein's comments about evaluating performance as opposed to promise applied as well to Maddon. Maddon has been quite successful in his stint with the Cubs, losing twice in the NLCS and winning a championship. 2018, though, was a letdown, however, of major proportions. Personally, I am OK with Maddon, though his in-game management and bullpen decisions have cost the team wins and his relentless self-promotion is wearing a bit thin.
Another sphinx-like Epstein statement is also taking shape with respect to Addison Russell as it now appears they are having second thoughts about just dumping the guy if they ever had first thoughts on the matter. The Cubs, and most major league franchises, have never had a lot of qualms about employing bad actors and off the field jerks in general. With respect to the Cubs in the Epstein era, witness Chapman and Murphy, as well as their hushing up whatever bad things Castro was up to while with the team,
I've always liked Russell as a player, though it seems he has turned out to be a jerk off the field. Look for the Cubs to offer him a contract laden with rehabilitation incentives and promises on his part to reform.
Monday, October 29, 2018
Free Agents and Options
The Cubs should be pretty busy this week evaluating their current free agents and players with options. They have until Friday to make decisions. Most of them are rather obvious.
As to the team options, those eligible are Hamels, Strop, and Kintzler. The Cubs should jump at getting Hamels even though he will cost $20MM. Similarly, Strop is an obvious choice as well even at $6.5MM. Kintzler was a total bust and a rather obvious thumbs down at $10MM.
Free agents might be a little trickier, but I guess fairly predictable as well. The pitchers are Chavez, De La Rosa, Wilson, and Garcia. Look for the Cubs to try to retain Chavez for sure and probably De La Rosa. Look for them to pass on Wilson and more than likely Garcia.
Position players are Murphy and Bobby Wilson, a journeyman catcher who cannot hit at all and actually never got into a game for the Cubs. Wilson is likely gone.
There have been rumblings about the Cubs taking a shot at keeping Murphy. I kind of doubt it and I also think it is a bad move. The Cubs expected Murphy to be a game-changer offensively when they picked him up in the midst of a general batting slump. However, after a brief stretch of success when he first arrived, he did not provide the kind of kick-start they needed. He achieved a 0.2 WAR and pretty ordinary stats down the stretch. Moreover, he was and is a defensive liability.
There's a lot of uncertainty about Russell's future with the team and whether the Cubs are willing to invest in some sort of rehabilitation project, but there are plenty of infield options on the current roster to carry the team through Russell's suspension period and beyond if necessary, viz., Zobrist, Bote, and LaStella. I rather believe that Murphy's future is as a DH or maybe a stopgap first baseman someplace.
Much as the sportswriters want to whip up enthusiasm on the Machado front, I cannot see the Cubs showing other than a perfunctory interest. If the Cubs go for anyone as a priority in free agency, it will be an impact left-handed reliever.
Congratulations to the Red Sox, far and away the best team in 2018 and worthy champions.
As to the team options, those eligible are Hamels, Strop, and Kintzler. The Cubs should jump at getting Hamels even though he will cost $20MM. Similarly, Strop is an obvious choice as well even at $6.5MM. Kintzler was a total bust and a rather obvious thumbs down at $10MM.
Free agents might be a little trickier, but I guess fairly predictable as well. The pitchers are Chavez, De La Rosa, Wilson, and Garcia. Look for the Cubs to try to retain Chavez for sure and probably De La Rosa. Look for them to pass on Wilson and more than likely Garcia.
Position players are Murphy and Bobby Wilson, a journeyman catcher who cannot hit at all and actually never got into a game for the Cubs. Wilson is likely gone.
There have been rumblings about the Cubs taking a shot at keeping Murphy. I kind of doubt it and I also think it is a bad move. The Cubs expected Murphy to be a game-changer offensively when they picked him up in the midst of a general batting slump. However, after a brief stretch of success when he first arrived, he did not provide the kind of kick-start they needed. He achieved a 0.2 WAR and pretty ordinary stats down the stretch. Moreover, he was and is a defensive liability.
There's a lot of uncertainty about Russell's future with the team and whether the Cubs are willing to invest in some sort of rehabilitation project, but there are plenty of infield options on the current roster to carry the team through Russell's suspension period and beyond if necessary, viz., Zobrist, Bote, and LaStella. I rather believe that Murphy's future is as a DH or maybe a stopgap first baseman someplace.
Much as the sportswriters want to whip up enthusiasm on the Machado front, I cannot see the Cubs showing other than a perfunctory interest. If the Cubs go for anyone as a priority in free agency, it will be an impact left-handed reliever.
Congratulations to the Red Sox, far and away the best team in 2018 and worthy champions.
Monday, October 22, 2018
Cubs Speculation
Now the Cubs season has ended, mad speculation begins on what the team will do in the off-season to improve. Bear in mind, the Cubs, woeful as their second half turned out, especially in September, won 95 games. Mediocre as their performance was in the second half, they were still 40-30 after the break.
Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado. I'm not so sure. For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop. Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them. Machado is a much better third baseman. The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base. This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant. So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do. Witness his performance so far in the playoffs. OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.
Harper may be a different story. Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot. I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short. First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him. Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.
The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown. The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs. Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four. They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.
The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season. They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so. Wilson is gone for sure. Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents. They ought to sign Chavez. Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.
I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop.
As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.
Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado. I'm not so sure. For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop. Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them. Machado is a much better third baseman. The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base. This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant. So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do. Witness his performance so far in the playoffs. OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.
Harper may be a different story. Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot. I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short. First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him. Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.
The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown. The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs. Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four. They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.
The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season. They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so. Wilson is gone for sure. Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents. They ought to sign Chavez. Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.
I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop.
As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
NLCS
I was happy to see the Brewers eliminated by the Dodgers. I confess to a particular disdain for the Milwaukee club, but, honestly, I don't see how they were able to win 96 games with that roster. I mean, besides Cain and Yelich and Aquilar, they have a bunch of aging veterans, most of whom they picked up at the trade deadline and several platoon players. Worst of all, they have no starting pitchers worth the name. In the entire series, a seven game series, their starters pitched something like 20 innings.
Of course, they have a great bullpen, and I suppose you have to credit Counsel full marks for getting as far as he did with this team. However, Counsel did come a cropper in the NLCS, doing his best to channel his inner Joe Maddon on steroids in the process. You can only go so far when you routinely go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning. Sooner or later, they are going to run out of gas.
I expect Boston to make short work of LA in the World Series. I really thought the ALCS would go longer, as Houston is a quality team, but the fact that the Red Sox eliminated them in five games, three on the road, speaks volumes about their approach and talent.
Of course, they have a great bullpen, and I suppose you have to credit Counsel full marks for getting as far as he did with this team. However, Counsel did come a cropper in the NLCS, doing his best to channel his inner Joe Maddon on steroids in the process. You can only go so far when you routinely go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning. Sooner or later, they are going to run out of gas.
I expect Boston to make short work of LA in the World Series. I really thought the ALCS would go longer, as Houston is a quality team, but the fact that the Red Sox eliminated them in five games, three on the road, speaks volumes about their approach and talent.
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Playoffs
Geez. Watching the Dodgers is like watching the Cubs. Thirty strikeouts in two games. Two runs in 22 innings. At least they won. I've been rooting for them to beat the Brewers anyway, mostly because I cannot stand the Brewers and also because one can never root for a red state team in the playoffs.
For those fans who yearn for the Cubs to pursue Machado in free agency, it may pay to watch him closely during the post-season. Machado is a good hitter to be sure. So far he reminds me a lot of Baez, which, of course is good and bad. The real deal is that he seems to be a head case. He has so far tried to maim Brewers middle infielders on two occasions as well as going out of his way to kick the Brewers first baseman in he ankle on a close play at first base. Also, on the winning hit moments ago, it looked like he paused for a bit before running hard to home plate. He made it, but you have to wonder. Two outs, solid hit, you're on second base. You run like crazy, don't you?
As to the AL series, I like the Red Sox. both because of the red state/blue state formula, but also because I rather think they are the best team right now. The Astros are good, though. Either one is likely to be the champion.
For those fans who yearn for the Cubs to pursue Machado in free agency, it may pay to watch him closely during the post-season. Machado is a good hitter to be sure. So far he reminds me a lot of Baez, which, of course is good and bad. The real deal is that he seems to be a head case. He has so far tried to maim Brewers middle infielders on two occasions as well as going out of his way to kick the Brewers first baseman in he ankle on a close play at first base. Also, on the winning hit moments ago, it looked like he paused for a bit before running hard to home plate. He made it, but you have to wonder. Two outs, solid hit, you're on second base. You run like crazy, don't you?
As to the AL series, I like the Red Sox. both because of the red state/blue state formula, but also because I rather think they are the best team right now. The Astros are good, though. Either one is likely to be the champion.
Friday, October 12, 2018
Chili Davis Out
One cannot blame the Cubs for dismissing Davis based on the team's performance. They really had only a few streaks where they were clicking on all cylinders. Maybe not his fault, but it was pretty brutal watching the team play, especially in September. Bryant's injury and missing Russell and Heyward and Zobrist for longish stretches undoubtedly had a lot to do with it, but still, they were a mess.
The Chicago Tribune gives a list of potential replacements. I'd prefer Magadan myself.
The Chicago Tribune gives a list of potential replacements. I'd prefer Magadan myself.
Friday, October 5, 2018
A Disappointing End
Actually, disgusting is a better description. The final two games were pretty depressing. Once again, no offense. The pitching was terrific over 13 innings; the hitting non-existent.
I cannot carp too much about Maddon's game management in this one. One might question leaving Hendricks in when he got in trouble with two outs in the 13th, but you have to figure he can retire a .170 hitter. Similarly, removing Lester for a pinch hitter to begin the 7th was a questionable move.
I did not have the same opinion, however, on his use of the bench. Batting Heyward with the bases loaded was, although defensible, an awkward move. Pinch running for Rizzo with Gore was also defensible. It's hard to take out your best player, but it was obvious that Maddon had no confidence in scoring that run unless he did something unusual. In the end, they tied the score. What puzzled me, though was leaving Gore in the game. I mean, Caratini was available to play first base.
Gore batted twice in the ensuing innings. It is plain that Gore is not a real baseball player, just a pinch runner. He seemed to be thinking about bunting both times, but he clearly cannot bunt. A guy with that kind of speed ought to learn how to bunt. The last at-bat in the 13th was a joke. Couldn't he at least have pretended to be grazed by that inside pitch instead of just standing around looking bewildered before running down to first base?
Maddon does a lot of magical thinking in his game management. This was a really bizarre move and I am kind of surprised there has not been more criticism.
More tomorrow about personnel and the future.
I cannot carp too much about Maddon's game management in this one. One might question leaving Hendricks in when he got in trouble with two outs in the 13th, but you have to figure he can retire a .170 hitter. Similarly, removing Lester for a pinch hitter to begin the 7th was a questionable move.
I did not have the same opinion, however, on his use of the bench. Batting Heyward with the bases loaded was, although defensible, an awkward move. Pinch running for Rizzo with Gore was also defensible. It's hard to take out your best player, but it was obvious that Maddon had no confidence in scoring that run unless he did something unusual. In the end, they tied the score. What puzzled me, though was leaving Gore in the game. I mean, Caratini was available to play first base.
Gore batted twice in the ensuing innings. It is plain that Gore is not a real baseball player, just a pinch runner. He seemed to be thinking about bunting both times, but he clearly cannot bunt. A guy with that kind of speed ought to learn how to bunt. The last at-bat in the 13th was a joke. Couldn't he at least have pretended to be grazed by that inside pitch instead of just standing around looking bewildered before running down to first base?
Maddon does a lot of magical thinking in his game management. This was a really bizarre move and I am kind of surprised there has not been more criticism.
More tomorrow about personnel and the future.
Monday, October 1, 2018
Tense Loss
Some observations on the tiebreaker loss.
The Cubs are just so inconsistent on offense. On Monday, they were in full swing mode. Granted Chacin was throwing strikes, but there are other ways to raise the pitch count, like spoiling pitches and fouling balls off. When the Cubs are in swing mode they never score unless they hit a home run. Should they survive the Wild Card Game vs. Colorado, they are not going to advance unless they straighten out their heads.
I probably would not have removed Quintana with such a low pitch count even though there were some hard hits. Pitching to Yelich with a runner at third was dumb and cost them a run. Removing Quintana unnecesssriky worked out well because Chavez was able to go two scoreless innings, but, still, Maddon has a tendency to pull his pitchers too early and given the almost complete meltdown of the relief corps since the Strop injury, this is a luxury he cannot afford.
Maddon was out-managed throughout the game by Counsel. Granted the Brewers have a superior bullpen, using the combination of Wilson and Cishek in the eighth inning was a big blunder. These two, along with Edwards and Kintzler, have been largely ineffective all through September. They ought to be better, but they are not. If you wanted a lefty to start that inning, the better options were Rosario or De La Rosa or Garcia. Why you would want a lefty in that spot is a bit of a puzzle. Presumably to keep Shaw on the bench.
Bottom line, the Cubs hitting approach is just completely messed up right now, but Maddon has to stop the micro-managing or at least do a better job of it. I like their chances against the Rockies tonight. Lester is a big game pitcher. Freeland is pitching on short rest. Should they survive, they have every chance to beat the Brewers who are bound to cool off sometime. The Cubs have superior starting pitchers, though that is balanced out by the Brewers bullpen strength. Position for position the Cubs are a superior team with the exception of Cain and Yelich. Of course, they have not played like that for a month.
The Cubs are just so inconsistent on offense. On Monday, they were in full swing mode. Granted Chacin was throwing strikes, but there are other ways to raise the pitch count, like spoiling pitches and fouling balls off. When the Cubs are in swing mode they never score unless they hit a home run. Should they survive the Wild Card Game vs. Colorado, they are not going to advance unless they straighten out their heads.
I probably would not have removed Quintana with such a low pitch count even though there were some hard hits. Pitching to Yelich with a runner at third was dumb and cost them a run. Removing Quintana unnecesssriky worked out well because Chavez was able to go two scoreless innings, but, still, Maddon has a tendency to pull his pitchers too early and given the almost complete meltdown of the relief corps since the Strop injury, this is a luxury he cannot afford.
Maddon was out-managed throughout the game by Counsel. Granted the Brewers have a superior bullpen, using the combination of Wilson and Cishek in the eighth inning was a big blunder. These two, along with Edwards and Kintzler, have been largely ineffective all through September. They ought to be better, but they are not. If you wanted a lefty to start that inning, the better options were Rosario or De La Rosa or Garcia. Why you would want a lefty in that spot is a bit of a puzzle. Presumably to keep Shaw on the bench.
Bottom line, the Cubs hitting approach is just completely messed up right now, but Maddon has to stop the micro-managing or at least do a better job of it. I like their chances against the Rockies tonight. Lester is a big game pitcher. Freeland is pitching on short rest. Should they survive, they have every chance to beat the Brewers who are bound to cool off sometime. The Cubs have superior starting pitchers, though that is balanced out by the Brewers bullpen strength. Position for position the Cubs are a superior team with the exception of Cain and Yelich. Of course, they have not played like that for a month.
Sunday, September 30, 2018
Tied
Not the last out of the regular season, though, as they must face the Brewers Monday afternoon to determine who is the division winner and who must play in the Wild Card game. Colorado and Los Angeles must play a similar tiebreaker later in the afternoon. I feel pretty good about the Cubs chances. Quintana will get the start for the Cubs against probably Chacin for the Brewers. I saw a game earlier this month with the same matchup. Quintana for some reason dominates the Brewers, as he did that night.
Go Cubs!
Thursday, September 13, 2018
Brain Cramps
I have to say that Joe Maddon has done a remarkable job keeping his team on track despite notable injuries to a number of key players in the course of the season. Over the year, he has lost two of his starters, Darvish and Chatwood, the one to injury, the other to incompetence. He has also lost his closer Morrow for most of the season. Plus significant DL stints for Rizzo, Bryant, Zobrist, Russell, and Heyward.
That having been said, his performance as a game manager leaves a lot to be desired. I recollect Theo Epstein having said they never really considered game management skills in selecting the manager. In this respect, he was being unusually frank.
Not since Game 7 of the 2016 World Series have I seen a worse managed game and there were some honest excuses for that performance. The worst of all decisions was allowing Pedro Strop to hit with the bases loaded and one out in a one run game. I know he wanted to keep Strop in the game to pitch the bottom of the 10th. But Strop has never pitched three innings in his life. So with this decision, you might have told Strop to just stand there and take a strikeout. After all, Rizzo was on deck. Or you might have had him bunt. Worst case scenario, Strop hits into a double play. Even worse, he gets hurt. Bingo. Incidentally, the guy who is warming up who is obviously such a risk that his appearance is worth all this drama, Rosario, breezes through bottom of the inning to gain the save.
That was the most egregious blunder, but not the only one. Top of the fifth, Mongomery is breezing along with a 2-1 lead. He gives up a single. Captain Hook emerges from the dugout, takes him out after 62 pitches, and promptly watches the lead disappear. Six more relievers follow, all but Edwards holding the Nationals in check.
Next questionable decision: hitting Contreras for Caratini with the bases loaded. Caratini is the hottest hitter in the lineup over the past week next to Bryant. Contreras strikes out.
Next odd decision: Zobrist bats for Bote with the bases loaded, an odd choice in itself, strikes out. Zobrist does not remain in the game. He is replaced by Gore, who, I think, has one hit in his whole career. Sure enough, Gore comes up later in the top of the ninth with a man on base, bunts into a double play. You would think that a guy whose only asset is speed would have figured out how to bunt, wouldn't you? Perhaps that explains why he has only one hit.
Anyway, they survived what I thought was an absolute must win game. Back to Chicago now to face the Reds.
That having been said, his performance as a game manager leaves a lot to be desired. I recollect Theo Epstein having said they never really considered game management skills in selecting the manager. In this respect, he was being unusually frank.
Not since Game 7 of the 2016 World Series have I seen a worse managed game and there were some honest excuses for that performance. The worst of all decisions was allowing Pedro Strop to hit with the bases loaded and one out in a one run game. I know he wanted to keep Strop in the game to pitch the bottom of the 10th. But Strop has never pitched three innings in his life. So with this decision, you might have told Strop to just stand there and take a strikeout. After all, Rizzo was on deck. Or you might have had him bunt. Worst case scenario, Strop hits into a double play. Even worse, he gets hurt. Bingo. Incidentally, the guy who is warming up who is obviously such a risk that his appearance is worth all this drama, Rosario, breezes through bottom of the inning to gain the save.
That was the most egregious blunder, but not the only one. Top of the fifth, Mongomery is breezing along with a 2-1 lead. He gives up a single. Captain Hook emerges from the dugout, takes him out after 62 pitches, and promptly watches the lead disappear. Six more relievers follow, all but Edwards holding the Nationals in check.
Next questionable decision: hitting Contreras for Caratini with the bases loaded. Caratini is the hottest hitter in the lineup over the past week next to Bryant. Contreras strikes out.
Next odd decision: Zobrist bats for Bote with the bases loaded, an odd choice in itself, strikes out. Zobrist does not remain in the game. He is replaced by Gore, who, I think, has one hit in his whole career. Sure enough, Gore comes up later in the top of the ninth with a man on base, bunts into a double play. You would think that a guy whose only asset is speed would have figured out how to bunt, wouldn't you? Perhaps that explains why he has only one hit.
Anyway, they survived what I thought was an absolute must win game. Back to Chicago now to face the Reds.
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