The Last Spot

Since the Cubs are determined to carry twelve pitchers, five outfield spots are taken, as are five infielders with the presumed retention of Jeff Baker, so with the addition of the two catchers, we are left with only one roster spot to be contested by four players: Sam Fuld, Chad Tracy, Kevin Millar, and Micah Hoffpauir. None of these guys has exactly been knocking the cover off the ball in spring training.

As I noted yesterday, the addition of Colvin pretty much knocks Fuld out. He is not an offensive force off the bench, Colvin is a solid defensive replacement if they need one, and they have five outfielders, four of whom can actually catch the ball and four of whom can actually throw the ball, although unfortunately they are not the same four guys. Fuld has options left, so my best guess is that he is out of the running.

So, I think, is Hoffpauir. I've always thought he had some potential, but it is clear that he had a couple of dreadful months last year when he was very streaky and inconsistent. He can only play first base or the corner outfield positions, which essentially means he is only useful at 1B if Lee needs a day off. Plus he has an option year remaining, so sending him down doesn't mean he is a lost cause for the team.

That leaves Millar or Tracy. You have got to think it is Tracy, not from anything he has shown in camp, but he is a left-handed bat and he can play 1B or 3B reasonably well. Plus he is young enough that he might be able to regain his earlier form as a hitter, in which case he would be a formidable addition to the team even in a bench role. Millar, on the other hand, struggled badly last year and has the look of an old-timer whose bat has slowed up significantly. He may be a great guy in the clubhouse, but he looks over-matched against major league pitchers. He can play 1B adequately and 3B and LF badly. Finally, the last thing the Cubs need is another right-handed bat.

So, for what it is worth, my money is on Tracy. Whichever of the two loses out will probably end up with the Rangers, especially if that guy is Millar.

Blanco, Colvin

Some people have argued that the Cubs, knowing Castro is the future shortstop, should have moved Theriot to 2B this year and played Blanco until Castro was ready. You can certainly make a case for this plan, but it was always a non-starter for the Cubs because they will rarely if ever carry a guy who is really good at one aspect of the game if that aspect is defense. They will also consistently overvalue even mediocre hitting even when those players play defensive positions like 2B or SS or CF.

Which is why, I guess, Jeff Baker will make the team and probably platoon with Mike Fontenot at 2B even though he has shown virtually nothing in spring training to justify the move, is weak defensively, and is likely to be superfluous once Castro arrives on the scene. It is not a big deal, and certainly the departure of Blanco is not a major event, but it is still probably not a wise choice. You wonder if the Cubs couldn't have dumped Baker on the Rangers now, as they are looking for a utility guy who can play the corner positions as well.

I'm glad to see that Tyler Colvin has done so well in spring training and has really played himself into a roster spot. Finally some of these draft choices are starting to pay off. Hopefully, at least. Of course, it does expose another serious weakness in the Cubs management style, in that good teams know when they have a good thing coming along and plan accordingly. The Cubs have, instead, made another unnecessary free agent acquisition in Marlon Byrd. Now Byrd is not a bad player, but, as I have pointed out in earlier posts, he is not a really good one either, which Colvin has the potential to become.

In a just world, Colvin would be the everyday CF, or at worst a platoon player with Byrd. Unfortunately, Byrd doesn't hit lefties very well, so there is a bit of a logjam developing. To make a difference, Colvin is going to need to get between 300 and 400 at-bats, largely at the expense of Soriano and Byrd, which means the team is spending upwards of $20 million to keep a kid with lots of promise on the bench. In any case, the outfield now seems pretty well set with Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Nady, and Colvin. They could decide to retain Fuld at the major league level, but because he is primarily a defensive player, they probably will not.

The Bullpen

There are a lot of stories lately about the Cubs' bullpen issues, especially since Guzman's injury. This is a terrible blow, no doubt. Guzman has always held out so much promise, and last year he seemed to come into his own.

I pretty much take the view that the bullpen, and pitching in general, is the least of their worries. In one of my earlier posts, I bemoaned the presence of Carlos Silva on the roster, but I have to admit that so far, with the exception of his first start, this guy seems to have turned it around. If he continues to progress, he really simplifies some of the Cubs' pitching issues. It now seems likely that Silva and Marshall will begin the season in the starting rotation, with one of them dropping into long relief when and if Lilly comes off the DL.

So, as far as the bullpen is concerned, then, there is probably just one slot open, and the question is, do you fill it with one of the remaining free agent relievers or trade for a journeyman right-hander, or do you just stand pat?

Marmol is set as the closer, and Grabow and Caridad as the principal setup men. Berg also seems assured of a spot. Gorzelanny seems to be pitching himself out of a spot in the rotation, but he will be OK as a reliever. Samardzja has also been unimpressive. I've never thought this guy is ready for the majors and nothing I have seen changes that opinion. It is widely thought the losers in the race for the fourth and fifth starters would go to the bullpen, but the Cubs need to realize that Samardzja's future, if he has a future, is as a starter and that he needs at least a whole year in the minors to learn how to pitch and to develop off-speed pitches. I can see him opening the season at the major league level, especially if Gray is still hurt, but as soon as either Gray or Lilly is ready, he needs to be sent down.

Gray also is a bit of a wild card here. When the Cubs acquired him from Oakland in the Fox deal, you would have to have considered him a lock on making the team and really contending for one of the major setup roles. A fluke groin injury has kept him on the shelf through most of spring training, but if he recuperates sufficiently, he definitely makes the roster.

So that is the bullpen right there, and it isn't a bad one as bullpens go. The Cubs always insist on carrying twelve pitchers when eleven is sufficient for most needs. They generally have one guy they only use when the game is hopelessly out of reach, so it is just a wasted roster spot, but there is no convincing Piniella and Hendry of this, so they will have to fill one more spot. I cannot see trading anybody of any conceivable use to get there, and the remaining free agents are either too expensive, hurt, or not very good, so it looks like another rookie for this spot. Russell has been the most impressive candidate so far.

Juan Yassir Serrano

I don't know. Is this the Cubs' answer to the Chapman signing by the Reds? I shouldn't think so. In fact, if one is to judge by this link, written about a year ago by a guy who knows a thing or two about the Cuban leagues, they have probably got taken to the cleaners.

Not exactly a top drawer prospect who seems to have been misrepresented by his agent. He seems to have played for a good team in Cuba, but he was hardly ever used. Last season he pitched all of 21 innings, 20 strikeouts, 13 walks, 24 hits.

I know he is just an A ball prospect, but these aren't very encouraging numbers. I wonder how seriously the Cubs scouted him.

Pitchers and Catchers Report

Well, they're finally in Arizona, at least the pitchers and catchers and some early bird position players. Lots of news coming in, much of it invented, some good, some not so good.

Theriot has lost his arbitration, but he still gets a good raise. His future is at 2B if Castro lives up to anywhere near the minor league hype. Unfortunately, owing to Jim Hendry's penchant for collecting second basemen, there is rather a logjam there, so someone will have to go. More about this in a subsequent post.

I thought I would use this post to assess the Cubs pitching and to more or less try to predict what the opening day roster will look like.

Pitching really is the Cubs' strength and last year it carried the team at least to a second place finish in the division, especially when you consider they hardly ever scored runs. Even with the loss of Harden to free agency, they are in good shape, as his contribution was not very significant.

Long term, the rotation will be Zambrano, Dempster, Wells, Lilly, and one of a group of four contenders for the fifth slot, viz., Marshall, Gorzelanny, Silva, and Samardzja. With Lilly out for the first month or so, two of these guys are likely to get some starts. Unless there are some surprises, my money would have to be on Gorzelanny and Marshall, with one of them moving to the bullpen when Lilly returns. Just as an aside, Lilly suffered an apparently minor setback the first time he attempted to throw, so there is no guarantee he will return on the accelerated schedule that has been laid out for him. Still, I'm not unhappy with these two lefties having a chance to fill in and I think they will acquit themselves pretty well.

As I've noted before, Samardzja has good stuff, but he needs to develop his off-speed pitches and he needs to learn how to pitch. The Cubs have a lot invested in him, but so far they have managed this investment poorly. He's clearly not been ready to pitch in the major leagues, and bouncing him up and down and from starter to reliever just erodes his confidence and needlessly uses up his options. If anybody is likely to benefit from Gred Maddux's tutelage, it is Samardzja, and that means he starts out in the minors and stays there until he is ready to move into the rotation full-time.

Silva is another proposition altogether. He is making big money, but he has not been an effective pitcher since 2007. In a fair world, he would not make the team. Unless by some inexplicable reversal of fortune he turns it all around in spring training, the Cubs will face one of three alternatives with this guy. First off, just release him, something the Cubs are unlikely to do because it means eating a big contract. Second, find some way to showcase him and hope to trade him away. This probably means virtually forfeiting several games and eating a big hunk of salary anyway. Third, make up some sort of injury and keep him on injured reserve, which is essentially what the Mariners did last year. None of these are very palatable alternatives, but, frankly, this is another albatross on the Cubs' roster who takes up a spot that could be occupied by a productive player.

I'll talk about the bullpen in my next post.

Carlos Zambrano

I notice that lazy sod Zambrano has reported to spring training two weeks early and apparently in the best shape of his career. What a downer this must be for all the Zambrano critics who want to trade him for a couple of washed-up relievers and some Class A infield prospects.

Seriously, I have never been able to understand the animus some fans and sportswriters have developed toward Big Z. Granted he has some issues controlling his emotions, but jeez, judging by the invective directed his way by these selfsame soothsayers, so do they. And besides, I've seen this guy pitch a lot of games, and when he is on, he has some serious stuff.

I do think that Carlos is best served by throwing to a solid defensive catcher who calls a good game. It always seemed to me he had more command in the games that Blanco caught from '05 through '08, and also when he threw to Hill last year. I rather hope the Cubs management tries this more in the future. Soto especially had a really bad defensive season last year, and I recall sitting behind home plate for one Zambrano start and observing that he hardly ever caught any of Z's pitches cleanly. This has got to affect both the umpire's judgment of balls and strikes and also the kind of game you are going to call.

Kevin Millar?

OK, Jim, you've got me guessing there. I mean, sure, it's just a minor league deal, but I'm pretty stumped here. The guy is 39 years old and hasn't had a really good year since 2004. He bats right-handed and the only conceivable position he could play is 1B, where you already have a good right-handed player.

So, I've got to admit this is a real puzzler. To which you must add that before signing Xavier Nady, a good player who has the potential to return to form and contribute a lot, the Cubs offered a similar deal to Jermaine Dye, a player with no upside who cannot play any position well anymore. Thankfully, Dye turned it down.

You really have to question what the thinking is behind some of these moves, or whether there is any thought at all. I always thought spring training was a time when you let your regulars play into shape and had a good look at younger players who might surprise you and make the team or at least show you something for the future, not where you cluttered up the field with the walking wounded and an assortment of has-beens.