The Garza Trade

There are mixed reviews of the Garza trade and I have to admit it is pretty hard to assess a trade of prospects for what amounts to a single veteran. Short term it improves the Cubs. Long term is problematic and impossible to assess now for obvious reasons, though at first glance it looks as if the Cubs overpaid. Garza is certainly a pretty good pitcher who projects to be the #2 starter behind Zambrano. He's no Cliff Lee, though, even though he is still young enough to see his best years ahead of him.

The Cubs gave up a lot, however, in Lee and Archer. I'm not so much bothered by the others. Fuld is a good defensive outfielder, but he is the sort of player who never gets much of a chance in the Cubs scheme of things, a little like Andres Torres who ended up playing CF for the Giants in the World Series. But realistically, he, just as Torres, would have spent his career playing in AAA. Chirinos has potential, but he is blocked by both Soto and Castillo, so you had to suppose he was trade-bait after his breakout minor league season last year. The same goes for Guyer who projects as a fourth outfielder despite his AA numbers.

But Lee looked like the real deal even though he is at least a year and possibly two years away, and Archer also has looked like a potentially dominant pitcher. The Cubs evidently do not value any of these players so highly as Tampa does, or the Cubs don't recognize their real situation as well as Tampa. The Rays have lost quite of few of their star players, they still have a solid starting staff, and they know they are not going to be able to challenge the Red Sox or the Yankees this year no matter what they do. If any one of the prospects the Cubs have traded delivers a year or two down the road when the Rays are in a position to contend again - and it is likely one or more will - they have got the better of the deal.

The Cubs, on the other hand, have made a deal that makes sense from only two points-of-view, one of which, the first, makes sense only to people as seriously deluded as the Cubs brass who think Marlon Byrd is a marque player and that fans are actually going to hop on a plane to Arizona to see the highest paid reserve outfielder tune up for another season.

First off, this is a deal you make when you think you can win now, and I don't mean contend now against deeply flawed and mediocre teams in a weak division. I mean actually win, as in getting beyond the first round of the playoffs and at least winning the NL championship or having a shot at it. This is the deal that puts you over the top. Now I think the Cubs will contend for the Central Division title and could easily win it and I thought that even before this trade, but I don't think anybody seriously thinks this is a good team, not a really good team anyway.

Of course, the second viewpoint, and probably the real operating factor here, is that it makes sense for a GM in survival mode, and we all know how Hendry feels about survival. You go through an off-season when you essentially offer contracts to mopes like Hill and Baker, sign a first basemen who batted under .200, and pick up Kerry Wood at a bargain rate almost as an act of God while your division rivals and the arch-rival White Sox go crazy with changes. You get to act like you knew all along that all the team needed was a first basemen, a veteran reliever, and a veteran starter.

OK, mission accomplished. The Cubs are a lock on winning a few more games than they lose. If they win 85 in their division, they have a good shot, and the trade moves them into that range. Worst case scenario, you just miss, but you're safe for another year. So much for the big plans of nurturing your own talent and building that winning tradition from within.

Huh?

Here's another strange proposal from Ricketts and the Cubs brass, courtesy of Fred Mitchell and David Kaplan of the Chicago Tribune.

We hear the Cubs are quietly working to amend their proposal to renovate Wrigley Field. In simple terms, the team would match its previous tax payments to the city — $16 million in 2009 — while keeping any tax revenue above the base for park renovations and perhaps construction of the long-planned triangle building. Once the team has what it plans built, the Cubs argue the additional business will increase taxes collected.

Now the last time I checked the real world taxes were something the government, any government, assessed against income or receipts or the value of property and it was not something that is generally negotiated just because it is no longer your property, seeing as it is a claim asserted by the government against your property or assets. As I understand this proposal, Ricketts is suggesting that he will simply appropriate anything he owes the city in excess of $16 million and use it for whatever he wants.

An interesting concept. Following this reasoning, I could simply tell the Assessor's office that I really need to build a new deck for my condo, so I'll just skip that second installment on my property taxes this year and call things even.

Cubs Out on Webb

MLB Trade Rumors reports that the Cubs and Nationals are apparently out on the Brandon Webb sweepstakes, leaving the Rangers and a mystery NL Central team that is not the Reds or the Brewers. Cubs fans shouldn't lose much sleep over this development.

Webb was a terrific pitcher before he his shoulder injury and he has a big upside should he completely recover, but he has pitched all of four innings in the last two seasons and by most reports was throwing only in the mid-eighties when he worked out last fall. Also, pitchers don't seem to come back from serious shoulder problems as well as they do from elbows. The Cubs should know this from their experience with Mark Prior.

It is generally thought the Cubs need another veteran starter this year and really I have no problem with Matt Garza if he is really available and the cost is not too high, but you can also argue they don't actually need one given the depth of their prospects who include Archer, Coleman, and Carpenter who are close to being ready as well as Cashner.

Contrary to the opinions of many who should know better, including probably Jim Hendry, young pitchers can have instant success and often make a big impact right away. In addition, the Cubs have Gorzelanny, an adequate fifth starter they ought to trade, and Silva, who is a big question mark and might be better off in long relief, especially if some of these kids can make a mark.

Cubs Sign Kerry Wood

And cheap too. Some people are wondering why he gave such a hometown discount to the Cubs, and, honestly, I'm not so sure either. But even though people were talking about a two-year $12 million deal with the Yankees or another money bags team, I'm not at all certain that was ever in the cards. Wood is 33 and he gets hurt a lot, though he has not had arm or shoulder problems since 2007. Apparently the White Sox offer was more than double the Cubs for the same one-year term, but Wood has always said he could never switch teams in the city. From his own point-of-view, Wood lives in Chicago and his kids go to school here, so he probably just feels more comfortable here.

I think this is a good signing providing the Cubs use him much the way Girardi did at the tail end of last season in New York. He still throws very hard and strikes guys out, but I don't think that he has the stamina to close anymore except on a spot basis and maybe he realizes that as well. The Sox job likely involved the closer role.

The addition of Wood gives the Cubs three solid pitchers at the back end of the game in Wood, Marshall, and Marmol. It also frees up Cashner to compete for a starting spot, something he was being groomed for before all the panicky Piniella/Rothschild moves last year. It leaves three more bullpen spots to fill, but the Cubs have plenty of choices there, both among veterans and youngsters. The rest of the bullpen almost seems to boil down to who you do not want there, and, of course, you would not have a Cubs roster were there not an abundance of candidates, led by my personal favorite John Grabow.

In some ways, I would suppose that because the Cubs have so many questionable starters and youngsters vying for the fourth and fifth starter roles, this signing might, somewhat ironically, rather lessen the Cubs desire to add a veteran starter like Brandon Webb. Webb sure was a good pitcher before his injuries, but even though he is a relatively low risk addition from a salary perspective, he represents rather a higher risk with respect to who else is competing for the remaining spots and what the Cubs may likely do with the guys who do not make the rotation. I guess what I mean here is what are you going to do with Webb if he just stinks, but is not still hurt, at least not badly enough to go on the DL. He just takes up a roster spot, much like Silva and Gorzelanny and Grabow and Samardzija, who genuinely stinks and is out of options and has a no-trade clause to boot. Guys like this can lose a lot of games early on, so it is clear decisions need to be made by Mr. Hendry.

Cubs Sign Carlos Pena

The Cubs have signed Carlos Pena to a one-year $10 million deal. I've commented before at some length on Pena's abilities and his career to date. I still don't like this deal. For one thing, it is obviously a stop-gap deal, but for the type of player you get and the amount you've invested, you get a message the Cubs think they can contend now. So it is really a mixed message at best. This guy will strike out, take the occasional walk, hit home runs, field his position, and otherwise do pretty much nothing else. The other question I have is where he will bat. Presumably third, between Castro and Ramirez, but with all those strikeouts, he looks like as much of a rally killer as Lee was last season.

Actually, it seems the Cubs and Hendry were all over the place today if one is to believe MLB Trade Rumors, which at one point or another had them trading for Chris Davis of the Rangers, signing Adam LaRoche, talking to the Dodgers about James Loney (probably the best alternative after Gonzalez went to Boston unless you wanted to take a chance on Colvin at 1B).

MLB Trade Rumors also had the Cubs shopping Tom Gorzelanny for unnamed talent. That's not a bad idea, but now that Pena is in the fold, you've got to wonder who they can get to fill their needs. Gorzelanny is not going to bring big talent unless additional prospects are on the table. Darrin O'Day and someone else from Texas? Who knows what these guys are up to now? Most of the best talent for 7th and 8th inning relievers, Wood and Crain, for example, are free agents anyway.

Well, lets hope for the best for next season or at least something interesting to watch on the field, all the while expecting the worst.

Cubs Miss the Boat on Gonzalez

The Red Sox have pulled off what looks like a great deal to land Adrian Gonzalez for four rather low level minor league prospects. Gonzalez is one of two franchise players believed to be available this off-season, the other being the free agent Cliff Lee.

The Padres GM worked in the Red Sox system, so you have to believe he knows their prospects, but on paper, you also have to think the Cubs might have matched or bettered this offer. So you have to figure the Cubs just cheaped out on the deal, which, of course, was only worth doing if you were committed to renegotiating the Gonzalez contract and offering in the neighborhood of $20 million per year and at least four years.

It is hard to believe a team that has a virtual license to print money and has the totally worthless Alfonso Soriano drawing down $18 million for the next four seasons couldn't pull the trigger on a real asset like Gonzalez. I rather suppose this gives us a clue to the future, at least as long as Jim Hendry is around.

The Cubs are supposedly still in on the Cliff Lee hunt, but given their failure to land Gonzalez, don't hold your breath on this one. I suppose the best you can hope for on the pitching front is Brandon Webb, who was a really good starting pitcher, and so has a great upside, but who is also damaged goods. That and Carlos Pena? Well, I've already said I'd pass on that one.

Either that or they actually think that the last six weeks of last year were real and they can pretty much stand pat. That's the worst case scenario, given the fact their offense in particular was really bad even during that stretch and they really won a third of those games based on Zambrano pitching a near shutout nearly every start.

Cubs Tender Contracts to Everyone

I was rather surprised to see the Cubs tender contracts to all the arbitration-eligible players on the roster. It was rather expected they would retain Marmol, Marshall, Soto, and Gorzelanny, but holding on to Koyie Hill and Jeff Baker makes very little sense. Hill is a decent enough backup catcher, but he worthless offensively and the Cubs have both Wellington Castillo and Robinson Chirinos making their way through the system, either one of whom would be an adequate backup.

Baker, in particular, indicates a substantial misjudgment on the Cubs part. He is a mediocre backup infielder with limited range and he just absolutely, positively, cannot hit right-handed pitching. Although he hit .350 against left-handers, he batted .106 against righties, collecting just 7 hits all season in roughly half the number of ABs. This is just ridiculous, and what it means is that he is worthless even as a platoon player because he is an automatic out should he have to face a right-handed pitcher, meaning the Cubs would have to remove him from the game whenever there was a pitching change.

I expect this means the Cubs infield, with the exception of first base, is set, as I would assume Darwin Barney would be the other reserve infielder, especially given the fact that he is the only other player who could be used at shortstop to rest Castro. They would have been better off looking for a left-handed bat as the other sub. Not an especially encouraging move on Hendry's part, is it?