Last Night at Wrigley Field

My wife and I went out to the ballpark last night.  Saw a good game marred by the absolute conviction there was no conceivable way to imagine the Cubs would score a run.  Samardzija pitched a good game for a change.

They did manage to squeak in a run in the eighth to tie the score at 1 thanks to some alert base running by Bogusevic and a clutch pinch single by Murphy who actually just hit a routine grounder that got through mostly because Alvarez, the Pirates third baseman, was jumping around so much trying to hold Bogusevic on third base that he vacated the position to which Murphy hit the ball.

Anyway, it was nice to see the Cubs make a game of it, but once again Kevin Gregg rode to the rescue to blow a tie game.  The picture above shows some Pirates fans celebrating the Marte homer in the ninth inning that gave them the win and a slot in the playoffs.

The Cubs had a shot to tie in the bottom of the inning, but Schierholtz was called out on a close play at the plate.  Kind of ironic to win in that fashion for the Pirates as they botched up the play on a routine single twice to open the door.  Schierholtz ran pretty hesitantly on the play and did not turn third well.  Also, the cutoff throw was not as wild by as much as the Cubs may have thought.

The experience at Wrigley is still generally pleasant if you can get over the quality of baseball the team plays.  I haven't been out as often as in the past, but I do catch more than a few games a season.  One annoying thing I have noticed just this year.  Each and every time we have gone to our seats, usually in Terrace Reserved Box, we have found someone squatting there.  It's a little disconcerting to start the experience having to evict someone from the seats you have paid for, especially as the occupiers often act put out about it.

Trainwreck

I suppose all lousy teams face similar issues when it finally dawns on the players and management that they are going nowhere and the light at the end of the tunnel is likely an oncoming train.  So it comes as no surprise that the Cubs are experiencing some late season melodrama.  Actually, given how disappointing the season has been in terms of the already low expectations the team entertained, it is rather a shock that such diversions did not occur sooner.

So, in rather quick succession, you have Edwin Jackson and Dale Sveum blowing up in the dugout after Sveum pinch hit for Jackson after only four innings.  Bear in mind that Jackson was pitching his usual half-assed game, building up his pitch count, in trouble every inning, unable even to throw to first base successfully on a routine play.  One is tempted to suggest maybe having a look in the mirror rather than continue this weird self-absorption is the answer for this guy.

Has Jackson had a bad year in an otherwise stellar career?  No, he has had a bad year in a pretty mediocre career.  Jackson has bullpen stuff, high-end bullpen stuff, but not a bullpen mentality, so it is difficult to see how he fits in other than as a fourth or fifth starter on a mediocre team.  Jackson still does not know how to pitch and he has been in the big leagues for a long time.  God knows why Epstein signed this guy, but, at least as an experiment in whether the Sveum team can effect a turnaround, put him in the "no" column.  (More about the Sveum evaluation later).

The second melodrama, somewhat milder, occurred when Samardzija blew up at infield coach David Bell for moving Anthony Rizzo off the line while he was pitching to Aoki in the Brewers series.  Aoki promptly pulled a triple down the right field line.  Of course, the ace Samardzija was somewhat befuddled by the notion of pitching to your defense, preferring to blame someone else for a mistake pitch.

On the subject of Samardzija, for all the milestones, 200+ innings, 200+ strikeouts, Samardzija is still not a real pitcher.  He has great stuff and no brains.  As far as being a Sveum/Epstein project, an honest observer would conclude he is at best a work in progress and at worst a modest flop.

Which brings us to the third fiasco, Kevin Gregg.  Gregg celebrated his achieving his fiftieth game finished, a big bonus milestone, by allowing four runs in the ninth inning to the Atlanta Braves yesterday.  He explained later that he was somehow distracted by the team deciding to use Pedro Strop once or twice in save situations, something the team has yet to do.

Where do they get these guys?  The Cubs rescued Gregg from the scrapheap when the Orioles cut him loose this spring.  Unaccountably, Gregg had a significant resurgence, at least before the All-Star break.  Since the break, he has rather come down to earth, but, on the whole his season has been a positive one that should have landed him a decent deal in the off-season, more than likely with another team.

Even though Epstein did not release him, which he should have done in my opinion, he has pretty much burned his bridges with the Cubs.  Good riddance.  Gregg gained an outlandish reputation as a setup guy with the Angels, but has never delivered since he moved on, especially in the closer role.  This whole business of feeling slighted by the Cubs honesty is a bit much.  He's 33 years old and the Cubs are looking for youth in the bullpen or another cheap rehab.

Standards on the north side are so low, though, that this kind of pea-brained thinking is the norm.  No more so than in relation to the beleaguered manager Dale Sveum.

Another off-hand remark by Theo and the gang set off a mini-controversy respecting Sveum's future.  If you take Epstein at his word, though, that he will evaluate Sveum and the coaches not on wins and losses but on player development, you more or less have to conclude they should be gone and that the Cubs should jump at the chance of hiring a Joe Girardi or a Ron Gardenhire in the unlikely scenario that such a prospect develops.

Certainly almost everything Sveum says makes little or no sense.  Castro's numbers, for instance, are virtually identically bad batting leadoff.  The third base platoon is not a pleasant surprise.  These guys have hit a lot of home runs at the expense of playing good baseball.  (Valbuena's OBP is around the league average,  Ransom's and Murphy's significantly below average, as are their batting averages).

I could go on and on, but the terrible truth here is that the only players to show significant improvement this year are Travis Wood and Welington Castillo.  The "cornerstone" players, Rizzo and Castro, have gotten worse.

I've never really understood the decision to hire Sveum, nor the decisions with respect to the coaches.  Usually, organizations will pack these spots with people from the GMs past.  The Cubs, for example, became the Phillies West in the 80s.  Is this the Brewers South or something?  Not a grand baseball tradition.

In this case, though, the Cubs have no real personality.  You get a vague impression they would like to have one.  Sveum's remarks about Travis Wood's progress, how he has learned to pitch to a game plan, for instance, give one the feeling that management has something in mind.  Possibly these statements are more meaningful in relation to the players who are not mentioned, the Samardzijas and Jacksons who evidently do not pitch to a game plan.

Still, if you are judging Sveum by any reasonable standard of player development, he has failed pretty badly and so should be gone.  What's more, in the last few weeks, he has pretty clearly lost control of the team and in a fairly public way.

Batting First, the Shortsop, Starlin Castro

I don't know why I take such delight in these strange, actually incomprehensible, evaluations of players that are occasionally given by Cubs leadership, in particular, Dale Sveum.  But here's another set of deep thoughts from Dale, this time in connection with batting Starlin Castro leadoff.

"That was probably as good as he swung the bat all year long in a 10-day, two-week period," Sveum said. "He actually hit into some bad luck, too. I thought he had one or two more home runs if the wind wasn't blowing in. Lined a couple balls in some big situations right at people.  He's not the prototypical on-base guy or anything like that, but right now, if we get him going in a spot that he's obviously flourished in before, it's a way to maybe get him going," Sveum said. "Like I've said before, nobody has a crystal ball for why people hit better in certain spots. Realistically, you just have an at-bat, it doesn't matter. But some people do hit better in different spots. That's the way it is."

Here's a dose of reality.  Castro moved into the leadoff spot on August 21 and has played 18 consecutive games in that position in the batting order.  He is 18 for 78 with 5 walks.  That's a .230 average and an OBP around .277.  Before moving to the leadoff spot, Castro was hitting .240 with an OBP of .275.  For the season, Castro is batting .239 with an OBP of .278.  Castro has 25 walks and 115 strikeouts to date in 2013.

Perhaps I am missing something, but by my reckoning, Castro is actually doing worse as a leadoff hitter or at best pretty much the same.  If the idea here is to stop trying to teach Castro how to bat at a major league level and just let him swing at everything in the hopes he will straighten out, then, OK, I get that even though in terms of developing his talent, it makes no sense.  But lets stop kidding people.  Right now Castro is a mediocre player who is prone to make errors on routine plays in the field and who is pretty much an automatic out.

Sobering Thoughts

Here are a couple of quotes from the aftermath of the Cubs 4-3 victory over the Phillies.

From Starlin Castro:

"These first five months, I don't put them in my mind any more," Castro said. "I was thinking too much about too many things. I was thinking about hitting, thinking about defense, thinking about everything. This last month, I put in my mind to finish strong.

"Be me," Castro said. "That's what I want to be. Be me. If I strike out against a bad pitch, so what? Take [care of] it in the next at-bat. That's the feeling I need. In the beginning, if I miss in the first at-bat, I'm gone. That [shouldn't happen]. If you miss the first at-bat, you have three left. Keep positive every at-bat.

"I want to be an aggressive hitter," Castro said. "If I strike out on a bad pitch, so what? [The pitcher] has to throw a strike, no matter what. I can strike out, but the next at-bat, do an adjustment."

Actually, for the record, pitchers rarely if ever need to throw a strike to get Starlin out.  Also, if he is determined to avoid thinking at all, why are the Cubs paying him $5MM this year escalating to $11MM in the final year of his eight-year deal?  Eight years of dumb is hard to take.

From Dale Sveum:

"He's been swinging the bat with a lot more authority lately," Cubs manager Dale Sveum said, "and to see him put that kind of swing on that ball to center field with the wind blowing in, that was nice, especially a game-winner.
It's nice the ball is coming off his bat like it did a couple years ago and last year," Sveum said.

Maybe I'm being hypersensitive, but doesn't it strike you these two are channeling Alfonso Soriano and Mike Quade here?

OK, it's nice to see Castro get a hit every now and then, but he has a .281 OBP so far with 112 K's, so just shut up and play baseball already.  Even when he hit for average, he had no business batting leadoff.  At least Soriano had power and base-stealing speed when he insisted on hitting first.  Castro has neither.

This "I just got to be me attitude" seems to be pervasive among the Cubs players.  Sveum seems to encourage it, perhaps inadvertently with all his talk about recognizing pitches and hitting your pitch hard and so on.  I rather think what the players hear is "blah, blah, blah, wait for your pitch, blah, blah, blah, hit a home run, blah, blah, blah."

Home runs are nice and the Cubs hit a lot of home runs, but they do not score a lot of runs and they lose a lot of ballgames as a result.  Too bad, some of these guys have a little bit of talent that could be developed.

It won't be so long as the Cubs current system is in place.  That's the sad part of watching this team being molded.  Try as I might, I see progress only from Welington Castillo among the young position players.

Based on the quotes I referenced above, I'd say it is time to bid farewell to both Castro and Sveum.

Rock Bottom

How on Earth can you lose a game when you score six runs in the first inning before you even make a single out?  I'll answer that with another question.  Why on Earth is Earnest Jackson pitching into the seventh inning when he has blown a six run lead?

I think the answer to the second question is pretty simple.  Dale Sveum allows his starters to throw at least 100 pitches if they are ahead or tied, whatever the quality of the pitches they are throwing.  Sveum never deviates from the game plan, no matter what.  It is like having an automaton in the dugout.

The answer to the first question is a little more complicated, but it has a lot to do with expectations and knowing how to win, or, in this case, not giving a damn whether you win or lose.  Surely fans have noticed that whenever the Cubs jump out to an early lead, they just seem to quit.  Short, quick at-bats, etc.  In their minds, the game is over.  The same syndrome is manifested in another observation, namely, how much better their at-bats seem to be late in the game, taking pitches, making tough outs, executing basic baseball strategies, etc.

In short, in these situations, some if not all of the players are paying attention.  Something they do not do most of the time.  So, some of this has to do with the players' ability and makeup for sure, but a lot has to do with the environment and the coaching.

I don't know the answer here, but one thing I do know is there is a big difference between being competitive and expecting to be competitive and expecting to lose all the time.  In the latter case, how you mess up doesn't much matter because no matter what you do, you will still lose.

So this so-called plan the Cubs have is theoretically fine, but in practice, without the presence of a serious manager and coaching staff and genuine expectations, the result is what you see on the field now.  The Cubs major league team is built and is being managed as a AAA affiliate.  There are a few legitimate prospects who are being "developed" and a number of placeholders who are being kept aboard to fill perceived holes in the roster.  Right now, the guys the team has invested in, Castro and Rizzo in particular, are still playing as if they were in AAA.

Going back to last night's game illustrates my point in another way.  Why was Jackson still in the game?  This is how you manage when you are in the minor leagues, when the goal is to get in your work and expose players to game situations and so on.  The big problem is what do you do when the prospects don't develop and meet expectations, major league expectations.

Here's another example of Sveum-think and Cub-think that I saw recently.  Sveum was waxing on about how great Donnie Murphy has been since they called him up from Iowa, eight home runs in seventeen games, blah, blah, blah.  Where would the team be without him?  I'll tell you where the team would be.  They are 5-12 in that stretch.  They would be 4-13.  Big deal.  It is this kind of thinking that shows you how far away the Cubs really are from being a major league team.

Same Old Stuff

I haven't written on the blog lately, mainly because there is not much to say.  Although the Cubs broke out with 11 runs yesterday, it should be noted that 10 of them were the result of home runs.  Home runs alone are not an offense.  Also, one game means very little.  Of more significance is the fact they were shut out five times in the month of August, all at home, and on two other occasions, scored only a single run.

Some encouraging notes:

• Maybe the Feldman trade was a clear plus for the Cubs.  Arrieta has pitched well in two starts and Strop has pitched creditably in relief.  Feldman, on the other hand, has been so-so with the Orioles, 3-3, ERA 1.4 more than with the Cubs.

• Castillo has been impressive since the All-Star break and looks like he is developing into a pretty good catcher.  Junior Lake also looks like he has some potential as well, but, in his case, this must be tempered with the realization that this is his first time through the league.  He is maybe not quite the hacker one was led to believe from his minor league stats, although he is not exactly a patient hitter.  Schierholtz has been looking very good lately and has even picked it up somewhat against left-handed pitching.

• Chris Rusin has pitched quite well since his call-up from AAA.

 Some discouraging notes:

• Castro is still an awful player and his mental lapses continue to cause concern.

• Rizzo's numbers continue to slide and he doesn't look like he knows what he is doing at the plate.

• Jackson is just plain inconsistent bordering on awful.

• Samardzija has been inconsistent as well, although he pitched very well last night.

On a final note, maybe someone can explain the DeJesus "trade", at least from the Nationals point-of-view.  For the Cubs, it is simple.  They dump an aging player whose skills are clearly heading downhill and who is a weak defender in CF, the only position his offensive stats entitle him to play.  DeJesus has become almost entirely a platoon player, and notwithstanding the consensus that he is a professional hitter, he is basically a .260 hitter who does not get on base enough to bat leadoff anymore.

Plus the Cubs save a bundle of money in terms of this year's remaining salary and the team buyout of his option.  Lets face it, nobody is going to pay DeJesus $6.5MM next year.  Now the Cubs save the $1.5MM they would have had to shell out to be rid of him.  The scary thing is the Cubs are willing to consider bringing him back at a discount in 2014.  Time to move on from this placeholder.  The Cubs have the worst outfield, defensively and offensively, that I can remember.  One of the reasons they do not score runs.

But for the Nats, you wonder what this buys them.  They are not going to reach the playoffs by any realistic conjecture.  So what do they want with a fourth outfielder this year when they have a solid starting three and some decent prospects in reserve?

I suppose the Nats answered that question by immediately putting DeJesus back on waivers.  Perhaps they are looking to flip him right away.  Maybe DeJesus is the player to be named later.  This one is a puzzler.

The Trade Deadline Has Passed

Now it is time to lose and keep losing in order to guarantee a high draft choice.  Or so it would appear were we to follow the dictates of guys like Dave Kaplan and company who continually blare out this mantra on sports radio.

The Cubs have been only too happy to comply.  After an encouraging road trip where they compiled a 6-4 record primarily on the strength of their starting pitching, they have won only one game on the current home stand, much of which has taken place after the trade deadline when everyone can relax and just play baseball, Cubbie style.

Dale Sveum finally snapped after Friday's game.  Down 6-2 in the bottom of the ninth against Carlos Marmol, Julio Borbon doubled to lead off the inning, then managed to get thrown out at third trying to advance on a ball in the dirt.  Of course, this was a really dumb play given the game situation - no outs, down four runs, Marmol pitching - but, hey, it wasn't atypical for the Cubs.  Stalwarts like Soriano, when he was here, Castro, and Rizzo seem to make bonehead mistakes like this every day with little notice.

However, Borbon's mistake was the last straw for our savvy manager, who promptly launched into a vituperative diatribe about the incident, after which Borbon, who was hardly used anyway, was designated for assignment.  So it goes.

The Cubs brought up the perennial second rate utility infielder Donnie Murphy.  Kind of a poor man's Cody Ransom.  The Brewers and the Dodgers seem to have rediscovered the old formula for beating the Cubs, namely, keep those lefties coming and keep the right-handed platoon on the field.

Incidentally, the Cubs have been pretty boastful of the apparent success of some of their platoons, but lately the numbers have been coming down to earth.  The aforementioned Ransom is batting .059 in the second half with a .309 OPS.  Luis Valbuena is hitting .159 over roughly the same span.  Valbuena is headed for the DL with an oblique strain, so he is out until at least September and maybe for the season.

The rest of the platoons are not faring much better.  With the departure of Soriano, the Cubs are essentially platooning Cole Gillespie and DeJesus and playing Schierholtz every day.  Gillespie's numbers as a Cub are OK.  The odd thing is his BA against righties is 100 points worse than against lefties.  Schierholtz has never been up to much against left-handed pitching, .189 this year, so the results have been predictable.  However, given the prior platoons in right field that involved Hairston and Sappelt, he is not doing appreciably worse.