Home Stand

The Cubs won six of seven on the home stand and looked really good doing so.  Arrieta was a little unlucky to lose the pitchers' duel Sunday afternoon.  The run he gave up to the Pirates was mainly the result of a fluke popup double.  The Cubs ran themselves out of some chances with bad base running and, in general, just could not collect that big hit.  I've got to say the one impressive thing about the Pirates is their outfield, the Polanco flop notwithstanding.  They ran down a bunch of potential extra-base hits all weekend and kept the Pirates in the game.

Rumor is the Cubs will bring up Wada to take Travis Wood's spot in the rotation.  Actually not so much rumor, as Maddon announced he will start on Wednesday.  This is really a needed change.  Whenever the Cubs have to remove their starter in the sixth inning or earlier, it spells trouble, and Wood, at his best, was good for only six innings.  A move to the pen might help him out.  His stuff is just not that good and he has to work hard to get outs, which usually means his pitch count gets up there pretty fast.

That bullpen is a mess right now.  An off-day and the rest achieved Saturday and Sunday for the main players will help, but there is just no way they can carry fourteen pitchers and remain competitive, especially with three catchers.  No doubt Schlitter will hit the road to allow Wada's promotion, but it is an open question who else will need to be sent down.  Maddon loves Rosscup, but he may be the only guy left with options, and they need to bring up another position player, presumably Lake or Denorfia if he has healed.  LaStella got hurt again yesterday during his rehab assignment, so he is out of the picture.  Otherwise, they are going to have to DFA one of the veterans.  Coke and Motte have not exactly lit things up all year and probably are pretty marginal to the Cubs long term plans, so it could be one of them.

I saw a piece on MLB Trade Rumors that the Cubs were thinking about bringing up Baez again.  Apparently he is hot down at Iowa.  I rather think this is a big mistake.  First off, twenty at-bats at AAA isn't much of sample and he is still striking out a third of the time.  The other question is where would he play.  The speculation was he would be moved to third base, with Bryant going to the outfield.  The problem is that Bryant is playing really well defensively at third and Baez has, to my knowledge, never played there.

Cubs Sweep Mets

The Cubs came back today to sweep the Mets after falling behind 5-1.  Travis Wood turned in another sub-par performance, lasting only into the fifth inning.  However, because the Cubs got deep performances from the previous two starters, they were able to use their better relievers to save the day.  They also showed a lot of moxie to come back against some pretty good Mets pitching.  All in all, a very satisfying series.  After Wednesday, I had thought they had a real shot to sweep even with Wood on the mound.

If I were the Mets, I would not be too quick to go all in on this season.  It's going to take a lot more than a hitting shortstop to resurrect their offense and, to be honest, the only pitcher who was really dominant against the Cubs was Harper.

The Cubs, on the other hand, look like they are in good shape to contend.  I'm not sure how long they can put up with Wood as a fifth starter.  Of course, Jackson is not the alternative.  Internally, they just have Wada down at Iowa to replace him.  Then the question becomes what to do with Wood and Jackson as well, since they cannot be optioned.

Cubs Look Good Again

Mainly, I guess, because they have had two plus starts from their two best pitchers, which has given the bullpen some respite.  Arrieta looked really good on Tuesday after he settled in, and Lester looked good as well before he ran out of gas in the sixth inning on Monday.  If the Cubs get seven innings from Hammel tomorrow, they have a shot at sweeping the series even though Wood is scheduled to start Thursday afternoon.

Kris Bryant has homered in consecutive games.  More importantly, he has just been having quality at-bats lately and has hustled out several infield hits, etc.  Maddon had all he could do in the post-game interview to avoid gushing comparisons to Roy Hobbs.

On the trade front, rumors are swirling again about a possible trade of Castro or another infielder to the Mets for a pitching prospect, presumably Syndergaard or the lefty Steven Matz.  Syndergaard looked pretty good in his debut Tuesday night, and Matz is thought by some to be even better.  While the teams do match up pretty well in terms of needs and strengths, I wonder how real some of the talk is right now, especially as both teams are major market clubs that are assessing their chances of winning now as opposed to the near future.  They are likely to wait a bit before they pull the trigger on anything, and that strikes me as the right course for both teams.

I have a couple of thoughts on a potential deal.  The Mets want a shortstop who can hit now, and that means Castro or Russell.  Russell is probably untouchable now, or at least an asset the Cubs are not thinking of moving near term.  I have always had mixed feelings about Castro, and, at one time, I was one of his harsher critics.  I have come around lately to seeing his value, especially given the less than stellar debut of Javier Baez, at one time the heir apparent.

Castro has matured into a pretty decent shortstop and also a pretty decent hitter.  Dropped down to the sixth slot in the order, Castro has developed a little more patience and pitch recognition at the plate.  Now that he is part of a team that gets on base a lot more than in the past, he is getting a lot of RBI chances.  So far, he has driven in 20 runs, which leads the team.  I would not want to move a guy who is having a good year unless I were sure he could be replaced with an equally productive bat and glove.  Right now, that replacement is certainly not Baez.  Given Castro's performance so far, I think the Cubs are looking at matters in the same way.  Barring a trade, it is likely the Cubs will have Russell and Castro swap positions when the season is over.

I can see the Cubs packaging Baez and some other prospects who are blocked in a trade for an established starting pitcher.  I think the Cubs are looking more or less for more established players unless they fall so far behind the Cards that the season is a loss.  Neither Syndergaard nor Matz really match this need.  Hamels does, and I would not be surprised to see the Cubs take a shot at him later this year, especially if they stay close and the Phillies are still in sell mode.

A Supporting Voice

I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one being critical of Maddon's early hook tendencies.  Apparently, Jesse Rogers has noticed the same thing and its consequences.

Another Bullpen Failure

The Cubs lost a tough one on Sunday 3-2, losing the series to a Milwaukee team that is seriously banged up and, even when healthy, not very good.  This time it took eleven innings to lose.  The Cubs are on a serious slide, falling to .500 after a terrific start, having lost eight of their last eleven games.  Mostly they are scoring enough runs, with a couple of exceptions, to win these games, even though they are starting to strike out a lot.  The failure has been in the pitching department, particularly the bullpen.

I have to second-guess Maddon again today.  Maddon was set up to use his most reliable bullpen assets Sunday afternoon, namely, Rosscup, Strop, and Rondon.  You have to wonder why he pulled Hendricks, though, in the sixth inning.  OK, his pitch count was not low, but he should have been able to go six.  The speculation is you did not want him facing the heart of the order and losing confidence.  The counter-argument here is that young pitchers build confidence and experience by getting out of jams.

Anyway, the early hook has just not been working for the Cubs lately and it did not work on Sunday.  Grimm managed to get out of the jam with a double play ball, but, despite having hardly pitched at all this season, two-thirds of an inning to that point, he was lifted in favor of Rosscup in the seventh.  Rosscup was doing pretty well so far since his callup, but he gave up two home runs to weak hitters to blow the lead.

Strop gave the Cubs two scoreless innings and Russell one, letting the Cubs at least tie the score and force extra innings.  This leads me to the real second-guessing exercise.  Rondon, who had been warming up off and on for several innings, should have come in to pitch the eleventh.  The heart of the Brewers lineup was due to bat and the key in this situation is to survive for another inning.  The Brewers had already used up their most effective relievers.  Indeed, both teams were running out of pitchers and players, so the rest of the game would pit less than optimal pitching against whoever was left in the game.

Instead, Maddon chose to go with Motte.  The results were fairly predicable.  Motte got in trouble and ultimately blew the game.  So it goes.

Another Meltdown

ESPN has a good analysis of the current Cubs pitching woes.  It does not augur well for the future.  Last night rather proved the point.  A two run deficit became an eight run landslide when Wood was pulled after four innings.  Jackson, as usual, led the parade of awfulness.

I hate to start nitpicking some of Maddon's decisions, but a pattern is emerging here.  Maybe because the bullpen was so good early on before the Grimm and Ramirez injuries, or maybe it is an issue of style, but Maddon continues to manage as if he had a strong and reliable bullpen, particularly in his use of middle relief, when, actually, he does not.

Last night Wood struggled through four innings, allowing six runs.  To be honest, sloppy play did not help.  Two Cubs errors led to two unearned runs and extended innings.  Still, Wood had thrown only 84 pitches when he was pulled.  Could it have been any worse in the fifth to let him in rather than turning the game over to Jackson and Coke, who allowed five runs and put the game out of reach.  Actually, whenever the Cubs pull their starter before the end of the sixth, it is disaster.  The same thing happened in St. Louis when Wood and Hendricks left early and those games seemed well in hand.  Logically, there needs to be a change of approach or a change of personnel.

Anyway, Wood has always been hit and miss and really only a six inning guy at this best.  Sooner of later, the Cubs are going to have to fix this #5 starter problem.  There is not much on the farm that looks like immediate help.  Wada would be the likeliest quick fix.  Wada doesn't give you extended starts, but last year he was pretty decent in that role.  He missed most of spring training so he is on an extended rehab at Iowa now.

Right now the bullpen is in big trouble.  They are carrying eight relievers, but only three of them are reliable options, Rondon, Strop, and Rosscup.  Strop has been used so often his arm is about to fall off.  Russell and Grimm have been added recently, so the jury is still out on them.

Motte has been inconsistent.  So has Coke.  Actually, Coke always attracts GMs in a pinch because his peripherals look pretty good.  In reality, he never lives up to them so he never sticks.  Jackson, of course, is Jackson and he has got to go.

To my mind, once you dump Jackson, you have got to replace Coke and Motte and maybe eventually Russell with better alternatives.  There's not much out there on the farm.  Edwards, who was once the Cubs best pitching prospect, has been converted to a reliever.  He's a possibility, but not near term.

Donn Roach is a younger pitcher who is 4-0 as a starter at Iowa.  He was a reliever most of his career in the minors.  Eric Jokisch is another starter project, but he probably needs more time to mature.

Ideally, the Cubs trade for a big-time starter like Cole Hamels.  They have the prospects to land him if they want to take the chance and the Phillies are reasonable.  Hamels is on the block with the Red Sox being the strongest suitor, but frankly, I cannot see Boston making that kind of deal after their painfully slow start.  Boston is out of it this year and you don't make that trade when you have no chance.

The Mets seem to be the only other trading partner for pitching help, but any deal with them is likely to involve Castro.  I doubt the Cubs would be willing to deal Castro unless it involved a proven ace, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Baez's development.

Bullpen Woes Continue, Cubs Win a Sqeaker

Have been out of town for a bit, so I have not kept up the blog.

Friday night the Cubs held on to beat the Brewers 7-6.  Rondon almost blew it in the ninth, having entered the game with a four run lead.  Actually, I rather think he was rusty from lack of work rather than this being the typical non-save closer syndrome.  The rest of the bullpen is seriously overworked.

The Cubs hit four home runs and struck out a ton, but the key play in retrospect was Bryant's hustling infield single on a successful challenge to the original out call that put up the seventh and ultimately deciding run.  Russell scored on the play.  Russell had previously reached on an infield hit, advanced to second on the wild throw and to third on another error when the Brewers retrieved the original throw and sent it on to third even though no one was covering the base.

Maddon has said the Cubs can play with the Cardinals at their level, which I suppose is true, but right now the Cards are the better team and they are red hot.  The Cubs lost three of four in St. Louis, though they should have won three of four.  They scored plenty of runs in the first three games, but it was the bullpen that blew sizable leads in the first two.

The bullpen so far has been the Cubs Achilles Heel.  Generally speaking, the pen is failing when they have to provide more than three innings of relief.  I can kind of understand Maddon pulling Wood and Hendricks early in the first two games against St. Louis, but given the bullpen having been taxed in the previous series at home, you wonder whether his hook is a little too quick these days.  Neither pitcher had reached 100 pitches through five innings.

In any case, the Cubs need to fix the bullpen problems to stay within striking distance of the Cards.