Wind Blowing Out - Same Result

Though I certainly would like to do so, just because I think he is basically a dunce, I can't blame Lou for this loss. You could tell from the start that they were going to lose. They were uppercutting everything. This is not a smart team and when they are going bad, they don't make adjustments. Lilly was getting everything up and lost command, so the result was a 13-5 trouncing. Actually, I have not been impressed with Lilly since his return even though he beat the Brewers last Saturday. He was pitching up in the zone then too, but, hey, if there is a dumber team in baseball than the Cubs it has to be the Brewers.

I read an interesting article about Lou Piniella and his management style at Bleacher Report. I don't agree with all of the author's recommendations, but it is worth a read. Some people wonder what I am talking about when I criticize Piniella and say he is managing on auto-pilot. Isn't he supposed to be a shoot-from-the-hip guy who is not afraid to try anything to win even if it is stupid and outlandish? Not. Piniella manages from the book. He rarely defies the lefty-righty percentages no matter who is concerned, except that his tactics often contradict even this stereotype, as he acts as if lefties can never hit lefties, whereas righties can learn to hit righties.

Things he has learned are really just generalities. Take the Fontenot bunt situation from Wednesday's game. Yes, a left-handed hitter ought to be able to pull the ball, but that's just the point. Lou acts as if - and he does this consistently - he were managing a team of generic left-handed and right-handed hitters, not these specific players. So anybody who does not accept his lazy assumptions is some kind of blockhead. But actually, if you have watched the Cubs play this year, you will have noticed that Fontenot has changed his approach a bit and that he is now often hitting the ball the other way. This has helped his performance a lot, but unfortunately, to my mind, it makes the consideration of a bunt at least something you might want to seriously think about in that situation.

A Disappointing Series

Once again, the Cubs seemed to have played to the level of their competition. They took the first game not necessarily because they played all that well, but because they got their usual fine pitching and managed to be patient enough at the plate to pull out a tenth inning victory.

The other two games, despite good pitching, fell back into the pattern of no hitting when runners are on base or when it is cold outside. Ramirez is definitely all screwed up. His double play ball in the seventh was a key play. But in general the last two games showed bad baseball, especially today's.

You also have to question Piniella's moves in the eighth inning after the Byrd double. Fontenot certainly failed to move the runner to third, but Tracy, while the percentage move, was a questionable decision, and using Nady instead of Soto who is hot and had to enter the game anyway is also an odd call.

Lou was certainly testy in the post-game interview. In fact, his performance was pretty nearly inexcusable and just plain obnoxious. The reporter - I don't know who it was - had every right to question him, but like many guys who are basically bullies at heart, Piniella got all defensive and hurt and lashed out.

Look, as Lou is so fond of saying, look, if your teams consistently play uptight and don't produce in the clutch, maybe there's something wrong with your own style. And maybe if you didn't manage on auto-pilot all the time, you'd get different results. Maybe you'd get better results.

A Series Sweep

I don't know if the Cubs have hit stride or if the Brewers pitching is really this bad, but, in any case the weekend games were a welcome relief. They have to find a way to play Colvin almost every day.

On the roster front, the Cubs sent Samardzija down to Iowa to make room for Lilly. No great surprise, but I was a bit surprised to see they were going to keep him in the bullpen. It is possible he might develop over time to a decent starter, but I don't think he will ever be suited to relief. One of the things a young pitcher like Samardzija needs is to log innings and game situations and to develop his secondary pitches and command, which he is not going to do in short relief at AAA.

Samardzija is another example of having business decisions guide baseball decisions. Hendry gave this kid an outrageous contract for an unproven talent more famous for playing football at Notre Dame. You have to wonder that part of the thinking was that a lot of Notre Dame fans are big Cubs fans and wouldn't it be a great draw to see this guy hit the big leagues with a band in the middle of a pennant race, which he did in 2008 for about a two week stretch before major league hitters figured out he had a 98 mph straight fastball and nothing else.

Juan Cruz was released by the Royals. He has been terrible the last two years in the AL and even at his best he walked a lot of guys, but he did have a good run with the Diamondbacks as a setup man. The Cubs might want to take a flyer on him for a minor league contract if he clears waivers.

Rumors

Last night's game was a good one. Dempster pitched very well, and the Cubs hitters seem to have Milwaukee's number. Lots of people are commenting on the surprising effectiveness of the Cubs' lineup, composed as it was of many bench players. What I think they don't understand is that it was a lineup, not an agglomeration of players batting in certain spots without rhyme or reason, which is most of the time what the Cubs do field, even though their regulars, on paper, look like a more formidable team. Last night's lineup had most guys batting in positions where they could contribute, and it had a nice alternation of lefties and righties and batting styles so that a pitcher was not likely to be able to get too comfortable. The result was nine runs, and the other result was that most of them came from solid innings with multiple hits and walks rather than home runs.

There are lots of rumors on the Cubs boards of looming blockbuster trades. I rather think it is a little early in the season for such talk. The most rational one is the idea of trading Gorzelanny for a proven setup man, most likely Heath Bell of the Padres. Not a bad thought. If Lilly is healthy, this brings Zambrano back to the rotation and even if he is not, there are some other options down on the farm.

Realistically, aside from finding someone to fill the hole left by the Guzman injury, the Cubs do not seem to have pressing needs that cannot be ameliorated from within their own organization, and I'm not sure they have the chips at hand to pull off a genuine blockbuster that would really improve their chances this year and into the near future. They sure don't want to trade Castro. In fact, they should seriously consider bringing him up right now.

The Cubs would surely be improved by dumping Soriano, but who wants him, what are they willing to give in exchange, and how much will it cost? Aside from Gorzelanny, the only chips on their major league roster that have value and are likely to be considered trade bait are Ted Lilly and Derrick Lee, who are both in the final year of their contracts and are at least possible candidates for being allowed to go in free agency. I would consider trading Lilly even this early in the year. He is a good pitcher, but, if you look at the numbers, he isn't that good. He is 34 and has a history of injuries. Given that the strength of the Cubs, both in the majors and minors is starting pitching, you've got to think they are going to be hesitant to tie up big money on this guy and that he could be dangled for sure around the trade deadline, especially if the Cubs are out of contention.

Lee is also a potential chip for the same reasons as Lilly, though, to my mind, the Cubs have no one coming up to replace him and moving Nady to 1B, though possible as a stopgap, is a significant downgrade. I could see a potential blockbuster in moving Lee to the Padres as part of a deal for Gonzalez, and I would take that deal in a minute if it didn't cost too much in the way of serious prospects.

Nady and Tracy are also potential trade bait, as is Baker, but I'm not sure they bring much in return. There is probably a lot of interest in some of the Cubs better minor league prospects, and the fact that Hendry has said he could move some of them is cause for some concern. This is always a problem when you have what is essentially a lame duck organization in place that is on the bubble. They want to win now, and based on past performance, it doesn't look like they know how.

Yet Another Woeful Effort

1 for 13 with runners in scoring position, 10 men left on base. That's the story. A nice effort by Gorzelanny that came apart in the sixth, partly because he lost command, also because Soriano misplayed a fly ball into a double and Fontenot committed an unlucky error. On the plus side, Fontenot and Fukudome had hits off a tough lefty. In Lou's world this shouldn't happen, although righties can always hit righties.

Anyway, this team is 6-10 after a tenth of the season. They are in serious trouble. 2-5 against two of the worst teams in baseball. It's not because of the bullpen either, though the most plausible reason for demoting Zambrano seems to be to send a message to Hendry to get Lou an experienced right-hander to complement the thoroughly incompetent Grabow for eighth inning duties. There are surely more effective ways to communicate, like maybe picking up the telephone or, God forbid, meeting face to face.

Unless the idea is to humiliate Zambrano, which makes no sense whatsoever, but then Piniella often does things that make no sense and, like many baseball lifers in management positions, is not a nice guy.

Cubs Win 9-3

So the Cubs finally played a decent game, scored runs, etc., and this made all the difference. Soriano is on a roll right now and it is fun to watch. He has about three or four of these incredible one week streaks. But listen, fans, enjoy it while it lasts because he always comes down to earth and when he does it can get pretty ugly. Ramirez continues to struggle. Over the long haul, Ramirez is much more important to the team. Last year's woes were mostly the result of his extended time on the DL. If he doesn't find himself, this team is in big trouble.

Listening to the sports radio shows and so on, I still find the Zambrano move incredible and pretty much the work of, as one commentator noted, an imbecile. Lou started nattering on about all the guys who were starters and moved to the bullpen like Smoltz and Guidry and Eckersley, but, hey, they became closers, not setup guys.

I am convinced that before the game Piniella maps out his pitching expectations and then, no matter what actually happens, just puts it on auto-pilot. Silva again was dominant, threw only 87 pitches and was pulled for a pinch-hitter with a four run lead. Why? Marmol was used to finish the game with a six run lead. Why?

There are only so many innings in a season, 1458, to be exact, say 1500 to round things off allowing for extra innings. You would like to get 200 innings from each of your starters, 1,000 innings. Realistically that's not going to happen, but lets say you are left with between 450 and 600 innings for the remaining seven guys. So for every inning you subtract from the starter's workload unnecessarily, you add innings to the bullpen. More innings for these guys, more stress, more chance for failure. 70 innings or so is ideal for most relievers, maybe 80 for your closer who by definition ought to be the best and most durable. Start pushing 80 or 90 innings for these guys, especially in tight games and you are going to have problems.

Zambrano to the Bullpen?

My gut reaction to this announcement is pretty negative. In fact, I suppose the decision is further evidence of a total lack of good sense by this organization. What you are really saying is that you would prefer Gorzelanny starting rather than Zambrano. Is this the case?

Come on, this is pushing the panic button and in a lot of ways it doesn't even coincide with the best characteristics of the players. Zambrano may have issues, but the fact is he has pitched pretty well in three of his four starts and his worst inning is usually his first. Gorzelanny, on the other hand, has pitched well in relief, so why isn't he the guy? One reason is that Piniella can never think unconventionally. Gorzellany is a lefty and everyone knows that setup men and closers can never be lefties because you can only use lefties to get lefties out even when starters are supposed to be able to get anyone out and the good ones usually do.

Lets hope this is only temporary, because if it is permanent, you are essentially trading a fifteen game winner for a ten game winner and you are taking away 200 innings for fifty in return.

The real reason the Cubs are losing right now is because, like last year, they do not score runs. If they scored runs, they would not have the bullpen problems they do now because their inexperienced relievers would have a little bit more of a cushion. What it does indicate is that Piniella and Hendry are on the bubble and they are scared. If I were the owner, I'd just pull the plug right now on these guys.