Looks like the Cubs search for genuine mediocrity has hit the jackpot once again. The Cubs announced this morning they had signed Scott Feldman, formerly a kind of glorified swing man with the Texas Rangers, to a one-year deal, presumably to be their fifth starter.
Statistics guys (see Fangraphs) think he is a sleeper, but you've got to wonder. Sure, some of his stats look good or comparable to Brandon McCarthy's, but come on, this guy gives up a lot of runs and his LOB percentage is next to last in baseball.
So, lets see, last year the Cubs started out with a rotation of Dempster, Samardzija, Maholm, Garza, Volstad, with Wood and Wells in reserve. They were on a pace to lose around 90 games before the trade deadline. After disposing of Dempster and Maholm and losing Garza to injury, they were able to hit the 100 loss plateau.
This year right now they go into the season with a rotation of Samardzija, Wood, Baker, Garza, and Feldman. Do the math. This is a 90 loss rotation and 100 assuming the Cubs trade Baker and Feldman at the break and maybe Garza as well.
Really, though, the problem with this team is not just pitching, it is hitting. These guys do not get on base and they do not score runs and they strike out all the time. Nothing so far in the off-season improves the offense. The Cubs are set at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop. You can even argue for a little improvement as Rizzo enters his first full season and Castillo is a significant improvement over Soto.
But after that, this team has a weak bullpen, no bench and glaring holes at third base and center field. Not to mention sub-par production in left and right field. Some people think Soriano and DeJesus had productive seasons in 2012. They did not and they are not championship players. I have to eat a little crow on my assessment of Soriano as I expected him to be finished, but this guy is an out 70% of the time and a strikeout a quarter of the time.
So the truth is that next year right now looks as bleak as last year. Sorry to have become a nay-sayer this soon, but if there is a master plan, I don't see it.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Odds and Ends
This is shaping up as another rather blah off-season for the Cubs who seem content to rest in mediocrity. They signed their only free agent, the mediocre middle-reliever Sean Camp who had an up season at age 37 last year. He's cheap and expendable, but the history of guys like this is to follow a good season with lots of appearances with a truly awful year when they cannot get people out at all.
The Cubs did pick up Donner Navarro as a backup catcher. This is a good signing. He can hit in a backup role and he will not embarrass his team defensively. They also unloaded the useless Jeff Brigham for a Rangers prospect in Barrett Loux. Loux has been hurt nearly his entire career, but could be a good starter were he to remain healthy. He went 14-1 at AA last year.
For all the talk of pursuing starting pitchers, the Cubs have been pretty quiet. I'd like to see them go after Brandon McCarthy for one. He has a lot of upside if he has recovered from his freak injury last year.
I was a little sad to see Bryan LaHair released to play in Japan. I never thought he got a fair shake with any of the teams he played for. When the Cubs decided he could not hit left-handers, he seemed to lose his mechanics altogether. I wonder why they never tried him at third base.
The Cubs really need to rethink their strategies with respect to free agency. The market has become both more rational and more irrational. By that I mean the impact or potential impact players are usually higher risk guys who sign long-term for exorbitant prices. The rest of the market is usually composed of mediocre role-players, David DeJesus types or worse, players around whom winners are not typically built. Fewer players with exceptional talent who are eligible for free agency the first time are hitting the market because they are getting locked up in longer term extensions.
The real values in terms of impact players increasingly come from foreign leagues. On this topic, the Cubs are apparently one of several teams to make an offer to the Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa. This guy is very good and would be a great acquisition. In the process, he would free up Carlos Marmol to move back to setup or for a trade.
Now if only they could dump Alfonso Soriano.
The Cubs did pick up Donner Navarro as a backup catcher. This is a good signing. He can hit in a backup role and he will not embarrass his team defensively. They also unloaded the useless Jeff Brigham for a Rangers prospect in Barrett Loux. Loux has been hurt nearly his entire career, but could be a good starter were he to remain healthy. He went 14-1 at AA last year.
For all the talk of pursuing starting pitchers, the Cubs have been pretty quiet. I'd like to see them go after Brandon McCarthy for one. He has a lot of upside if he has recovered from his freak injury last year.
I was a little sad to see Bryan LaHair released to play in Japan. I never thought he got a fair shake with any of the teams he played for. When the Cubs decided he could not hit left-handers, he seemed to lose his mechanics altogether. I wonder why they never tried him at third base.
The Cubs really need to rethink their strategies with respect to free agency. The market has become both more rational and more irrational. By that I mean the impact or potential impact players are usually higher risk guys who sign long-term for exorbitant prices. The rest of the market is usually composed of mediocre role-players, David DeJesus types or worse, players around whom winners are not typically built. Fewer players with exceptional talent who are eligible for free agency the first time are hitting the market because they are getting locked up in longer term extensions.
The real values in terms of impact players increasingly come from foreign leagues. On this topic, the Cubs are apparently one of several teams to make an offer to the Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa. This guy is very good and would be a great acquisition. In the process, he would free up Carlos Marmol to move back to setup or for a trade.
Now if only they could dump Alfonso Soriano.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Scott Baker
The Cubs signed Scott Baker, formerly of the Minnesota Twins, to a cheap one year contract today. I can't say anything bad about the move, and it seems consistent with the strategy of the new regime to look for short-term bargains with a relatively high upside. Baker was a pretty good middle of the rotation guy before he hurt his elbow. He missed all of last year to Tommy John surgery.
The only gripe I have so far is the Cubs continue to miss out on the genuine impact guys who become available. I'd have to argue there are no real major league impact guys going in free agency this year. Greinke and Hamilton have obvious flaws. Last year there were, I think, only two, Fielder and Pujols, neither of whom the Cubs pursued, for obvious reasons.
The foreign market is now where the genuine impact players are lurking, and, so far, the Cubs have not cashed in there either. Last year they missed out on Cespedes and Darvish, though they did obtain Soler, who is a much longer term prospect. This year they have struck out on the Korean pitcher Ryu, although the two Japanese high school prospects, much longer term prospects, are still potentially available.
I'd like to see this team start acting a little more like a major market entity and less like a bottom feeder Pirates/Royals type franchise. Patience among the fans is starting to wear a little thin. We all know that Epstein and Hoyer are great talent arbitragers, but I'd like to see them concentrate on building a major league team.
The only gripe I have so far is the Cubs continue to miss out on the genuine impact guys who become available. I'd have to argue there are no real major league impact guys going in free agency this year. Greinke and Hamilton have obvious flaws. Last year there were, I think, only two, Fielder and Pujols, neither of whom the Cubs pursued, for obvious reasons.
The foreign market is now where the genuine impact players are lurking, and, so far, the Cubs have not cashed in there either. Last year they missed out on Cespedes and Darvish, though they did obtain Soler, who is a much longer term prospect. This year they have struck out on the Korean pitcher Ryu, although the two Japanese high school prospects, much longer term prospects, are still potentially available.
I'd like to see this team start acting a little more like a major market entity and less like a bottom feeder Pirates/Royals type franchise. Patience among the fans is starting to wear a little thin. We all know that Epstein and Hoyer are great talent arbitragers, but I'd like to see them concentrate on building a major league team.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
This is Getting a Little Weird
So this week we saw yet another aborted trade from the Epstein regime. It is hard to figure this one out. Apparently the Cubs pulled the deal off the table, either because they did not actually have Marmol's written consent or because they got cold feet over Haren's injuries.
Haren, at his best, was a proven major league pitcher who would eat a lot of innings and could sometimes be a dominant force. In 2012, however, he slumped a bit, spending some time on the DL with back problems. He seems to have lost 3-4 mph off his fastball by season's end. So he was a risk, but a cheap one for a one year deal. Marmol, on the other hand, is a major league level closer who has proved himself a bit less than reliable over the last two seasons and who carries a heavy contract into his contract year.
Everybody on the Cubs boards and blogs thought this was a great deal because if Haren regained his form, he could be peddled at the trade deadline for big-time prospects. First of all, lets remember the Dempster debacle. Secondly, this is a hell of a way to build a team and one that, on balance, is rarely if ever successful.
The truth is that both these players are rentals or will be at the trade deadline and that you don't get big-time can't miss major league prospects at the deadline for rentals. And big-time can't miss major league prospects are what the Cubs want and need.
Actually, you might argue that a good closer has more value at the deadline than a starter in terms of putting a genuine contender over the top and that a team that is in contention is more likely to roll the dice and give you top value in return. I would certainly advance that argument.
Maybe the Cubs brass figured this out or maybe they had second thoughts on Haren's physical condition. Other than that, this potential deal was and is nothing to write home about in terms of building a winning team. Even if the concern is arbitraging bits of talent, the deal is kind of a wash, other than providing yet another illustration of a sad lack of competence and direction for this accursed franchise.
Haren, at his best, was a proven major league pitcher who would eat a lot of innings and could sometimes be a dominant force. In 2012, however, he slumped a bit, spending some time on the DL with back problems. He seems to have lost 3-4 mph off his fastball by season's end. So he was a risk, but a cheap one for a one year deal. Marmol, on the other hand, is a major league level closer who has proved himself a bit less than reliable over the last two seasons and who carries a heavy contract into his contract year.
Everybody on the Cubs boards and blogs thought this was a great deal because if Haren regained his form, he could be peddled at the trade deadline for big-time prospects. First of all, lets remember the Dempster debacle. Secondly, this is a hell of a way to build a team and one that, on balance, is rarely if ever successful.
The truth is that both these players are rentals or will be at the trade deadline and that you don't get big-time can't miss major league prospects at the deadline for rentals. And big-time can't miss major league prospects are what the Cubs want and need.
Actually, you might argue that a good closer has more value at the deadline than a starter in terms of putting a genuine contender over the top and that a team that is in contention is more likely to roll the dice and give you top value in return. I would certainly advance that argument.
Maybe the Cubs brass figured this out or maybe they had second thoughts on Haren's physical condition. Other than that, this potential deal was and is nothing to write home about in terms of building a winning team. Even if the concern is arbitraging bits of talent, the deal is kind of a wash, other than providing yet another illustration of a sad lack of competence and direction for this accursed franchise.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
World Series and Other Thoughts
The Giants look as if they are headed for a sweep of Detroit and even if they don't put it away Sunday night, the thing is pretty much over. The Giants don't look that good on paper, especially offensively, but they have great pitching and they are excellent defensively. Another thing - and this is something the Cubs should note - these guys do not strike out much at all and they usually put the ball in play.
Under the radar, the Cubs have released or out-righted off the 40 man roster many of the worthless minor league mopes who populated the team's bench and, in some cases, their regular lineup through a large part of the season. This includes - hooray! - the insufferable Chris Volstad, whom the Royals picked up off waivers right after the event. Right now the Cubs have seven open spots on the 40 man roster, which, to my mind, presages some interesting moves. We all know they need at least two starters and a third baseman, so one wonders if they might be a little more active pretty shortly in both the free agent and foreign markets.
Under the radar, the Cubs have released or out-righted off the 40 man roster many of the worthless minor league mopes who populated the team's bench and, in some cases, their regular lineup through a large part of the season. This includes - hooray! - the insufferable Chris Volstad, whom the Royals picked up off waivers right after the event. Right now the Cubs have seven open spots on the 40 man roster, which, to my mind, presages some interesting moves. We all know they need at least two starters and a third baseman, so one wonders if they might be a little more active pretty shortly in both the free agent and foreign markets.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Bob Brenly
Sad news that Bob Brenly is leaving the Cubs TV booth. I've thoroughly enjoyed Bernly's commentaries over the past eight years and will miss them. I hope the Cubs come up with someone who is equally knowledgeable and honest. I sure hope it isn't Kerry Wood.
It's hard to say now whether he was pushed out or just left for greener pastures or a job closer to home. Watching truly awful baseball here since 2009 might be a factor as well. Or it could be that he feels uncomfortable in the booth with his son advancing through the Cubs minor league system and potentially reaching the majors sometime in the future. He has said as much in the past, although, to be honest, Michael Brenly hasn't shown too much beyond some early success in low A-level ball to project as anything more than a good defense/no offense sort of catcher.
It's hard to say now whether he was pushed out or just left for greener pastures or a job closer to home. Watching truly awful baseball here since 2009 might be a factor as well. Or it could be that he feels uncomfortable in the booth with his son advancing through the Cubs minor league system and potentially reaching the majors sometime in the future. He has said as much in the past, although, to be honest, Michael Brenly hasn't shown too much beyond some early success in low A-level ball to project as anything more than a good defense/no offense sort of catcher.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Playoff Baseball
I'm not a big fan of the new playoff format. Don't like the one game wild card setup. Don't like the five game first round. Like it even less with the 2-3 format starting at the home park of the team with the worst record.
Having said that, fans were treated to some excellent and exciting baseball through the first rounds. Far and away the best series matched the Yankees and Orioles, two powerhouse AL East rivals who were completely throttled by superior pitching, but managed to play five tight games before the Yankees advanced on the shoulders of C.C. Sabathia. The Tigers also advanced largely on the strength of their ace Justin Verlander.
In the NL, the Giants topped the Reds. There is little doubt that in a short series, pitching matters more than anything else, and the Giants have probably the deepest rotation in baseball right now. The biggest blow to the Reds chances was losing Cueto in the first game.
The last series to be decided saw the Nationals produce an epic choke in the ninth inning of the deciding game. They managed to blow a 6-0 lead in the last two innings. Don't think I've seen a team disintegrate like that since the 2003 Cubs. You have to put a lot of it on the closer Storen and Johnson's sticking with him through five batters trying to get the last out. Storen and his catcher showed no confidence. Once they got the Cardinals hitters down two strikes, they just started nibbling and pitching away from their own strengths.
The last game kind of points up my earlier opinions on the wild card setup. Under the old rules, of course, the Cardinals would never have made the playoffs. To my mind, it is a little off-putting to see a team that lost their division by 9 games advance. As far as the Nats go, you have to wonder how much second-guessing there is going to be respecting the decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg with a month left in the season. Strasburg would have had two starts in this series, one of which the Nats lost.
Something the Cubs should take note of in their pursuit of good enough pitching. Good teams usually have ace pitchers, at least one, and nowhere is the value of the dominant starter more demonstrated than in playoff baseball. Sooner or later the Cubs are going to have to develop or acquire such an arm through free agency. I don't see anyone reaching free agency who fits that role in the coming off-season, but when there is one, the Cubs need to jump no matter where they are situated in the long-run plan.
Having said that, fans were treated to some excellent and exciting baseball through the first rounds. Far and away the best series matched the Yankees and Orioles, two powerhouse AL East rivals who were completely throttled by superior pitching, but managed to play five tight games before the Yankees advanced on the shoulders of C.C. Sabathia. The Tigers also advanced largely on the strength of their ace Justin Verlander.
In the NL, the Giants topped the Reds. There is little doubt that in a short series, pitching matters more than anything else, and the Giants have probably the deepest rotation in baseball right now. The biggest blow to the Reds chances was losing Cueto in the first game.
The last series to be decided saw the Nationals produce an epic choke in the ninth inning of the deciding game. They managed to blow a 6-0 lead in the last two innings. Don't think I've seen a team disintegrate like that since the 2003 Cubs. You have to put a lot of it on the closer Storen and Johnson's sticking with him through five batters trying to get the last out. Storen and his catcher showed no confidence. Once they got the Cardinals hitters down two strikes, they just started nibbling and pitching away from their own strengths.
The last game kind of points up my earlier opinions on the wild card setup. Under the old rules, of course, the Cardinals would never have made the playoffs. To my mind, it is a little off-putting to see a team that lost their division by 9 games advance. As far as the Nats go, you have to wonder how much second-guessing there is going to be respecting the decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg with a month left in the season. Strasburg would have had two starts in this series, one of which the Nats lost.
Something the Cubs should take note of in their pursuit of good enough pitching. Good teams usually have ace pitchers, at least one, and nowhere is the value of the dominant starter more demonstrated than in playoff baseball. Sooner or later the Cubs are going to have to develop or acquire such an arm through free agency. I don't see anyone reaching free agency who fits that role in the coming off-season, but when there is one, the Cubs need to jump no matter where they are situated in the long-run plan.
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