The Cubs have signed Scott Hairston to a two-year deal. Not sure what that really means other than that the Cubs are trying to look like they are trying to become a competitive team while they wait for their prospects to mature.
As far as this signing projects, Hairston is a career reserve outfielder who is strictly a right-handed platoon. Since their other outfield addition, Nate Schierholtz, is a similar caliber player who bats from the left side, it seems logical to assume they will platoon in right field. Both of them strike out a lot and hardly ever walk.
Presumably David DeJesus will move to center field. Lots of people think this means the Cubs have lost faith in Brett Jackson and Dave Sappelt. I rather think the opposite is the case. Look for the Cubs, who have made a big deal about restructuring Jackson's swing, just as they did last year with Anthony Rizzo, to start Jackson in the minors and move him full-time to the majors in June or July.
With respect to Sappelt, I notice he had a good run in winter ball and that he played a lot of center field. Sappelt has played quite a lot of center field in the minor leagues and he has always done better against lefties, so I kind of look for him to platoon with DeJesus. The only odd part of Sappelt's winter league performance is that he hit poorly against lefties. This is an anomaly for him, so maybe it was just a fluke.
This leaves Soriano as the everyday left-fielder, which is, from my viewpoint anyway, bad news. Actually, all of this is not a cause for optimism. None of these potential regulars are championship caliber players. The biggest problem with all of them with the exception of DeJesus is they don't get on base.
The single most important insight that Bill James and the sabremetric analysts have brought to baseball is the relationship between the number of base-runners and the number of runs scored and the relationship between scoring a lot of runs and winning games.
So far none of the additions made by Epstein in the off-season seem to contribute to this end. Realistically, the only players on the team who work the count at all are DeJesus, Rizzo, and maybe Castillo, and then it is not like they are walk-machines like Pena or Youkilis or even Fukudome. Good teams, really good teams, score 800 or more runs. Last year the Cubs scored 613. I don't see how they break 650 right now.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
The Latest
Sorry I haven't posted much lately. I really should do an assessment of the post-season moves. Maybe I will make it my next project. Honestly, aside from retooling the pitching rotation with some chancey acquisitions, not much went on. The Cubs are likely a better team now than they were in September, but then, how could they be worse?
To my mind, the biggest news to come out of the Cubs convention was Alfonso Soriano's threat to end his career as a Cub and to finally bring a championship to Chicago. To the mind of cynics like myself, these are two mutually exclusive propositions.
The other big news came in the form of the release of plans to refurbish Wrigley Field without government assistance, at least of the monetary kind. I rather welcome the recognition on the part of rich men who own sports franchises that are literally gold mines that it is their responsibility to build or remodel their own facilities.
Chicagoans and Cubs fans probably need to read the fine print, though. In return, Cubs management is asking for some easing of restrictions on the landmark status of the ballpark and how the park operates in the neighborhood.
Personally, I have nothing against increasing the number of night games. I've lived within walking distance of Wrigley Field the majority of my adult life. This neighborhood has changed a lot. Right now it is a far cry from being a classic residential area. In fact, especially along Clark Street, it is mostly congested all the time anyway.
In fact, I would wager that most of the opposition to proposed stadium changes will come from the rooftop owners who seem to have a lot of political clout and are and have been a blight on the neighborhood to begin with.
From the drawings presented by the Cubs, the actual physical changes to the park don't seem that bad. It looks like they have left the relatively iconic elements alone, things like the ivy and the scoreboard. The devil is likely to be in the details, especially the demand for a freer hand in allocating advertising within the park itself.
One thing I do think would be objectionable though, from an architectural standpoint anyway, is the design for the new or rebuilt upper deck. The whole cantilevered look is kind of cool, but it seems totally out of character with the rest of the stadium's architecture.
The rest of the plans, i.e., the concourses and lavatories and batting cages and stuff look good, but one wonders how they are going to shoe-horn all this into the limited space available.
To my mind, the biggest news to come out of the Cubs convention was Alfonso Soriano's threat to end his career as a Cub and to finally bring a championship to Chicago. To the mind of cynics like myself, these are two mutually exclusive propositions.
The other big news came in the form of the release of plans to refurbish Wrigley Field without government assistance, at least of the monetary kind. I rather welcome the recognition on the part of rich men who own sports franchises that are literally gold mines that it is their responsibility to build or remodel their own facilities.
Chicagoans and Cubs fans probably need to read the fine print, though. In return, Cubs management is asking for some easing of restrictions on the landmark status of the ballpark and how the park operates in the neighborhood.
Personally, I have nothing against increasing the number of night games. I've lived within walking distance of Wrigley Field the majority of my adult life. This neighborhood has changed a lot. Right now it is a far cry from being a classic residential area. In fact, especially along Clark Street, it is mostly congested all the time anyway.
In fact, I would wager that most of the opposition to proposed stadium changes will come from the rooftop owners who seem to have a lot of political clout and are and have been a blight on the neighborhood to begin with.
From the drawings presented by the Cubs, the actual physical changes to the park don't seem that bad. It looks like they have left the relatively iconic elements alone, things like the ivy and the scoreboard. The devil is likely to be in the details, especially the demand for a freer hand in allocating advertising within the park itself.
One thing I do think would be objectionable though, from an architectural standpoint anyway, is the design for the new or rebuilt upper deck. The whole cantilevered look is kind of cool, but it seems totally out of character with the rest of the stadium's architecture.
The rest of the plans, i.e., the concourses and lavatories and batting cages and stuff look good, but one wonders how they are going to shoe-horn all this into the limited space available.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Jackson & Villanueva
The Cubs finally landed a genuine free agent starter in Edwin Jackson, as well as another potential starter in Carlos Villanueva.
Jackson throws hard and had a decent year with the Nationals last season. He is not dominating, but he does eat innings. He projects as probably the #3 starter for the Cubs, behind Garza and Samardzija. Anyway, he signed for four years and has a no-trade clause, so this figures to be his longest stay with a single team since his early years with the Tigers.
The only quibble I have with this kind of signing is that it is more a striving for competence rather than excellence. The Nationals, who are genuine contenders and have an excellent team, passed on Jackson, presumably because they had better options and actually wanted to win the pennant.
Villanueva is another competent pitcher who had a decent year with the Blue Jays, who similarly passed on bringing him back. His best years were in a long relief role and I would have projected him there with the Cubs were it not for the story he has been promised a shot at 30 starts in Chicago.
Assuming Scott Baker and Matt Garza begin the season healthy, that kind of leaves Feldman and Wood in the bullpen. The Cubs look to be making similar competent not glamorous signings to fill out the bullpen, reportedly zeroing in on J.P. Howell as a middle reliever. I'd have liked to see them acquire another lefty or give Wood a shot. The only other lefty is Jeff Russell who looks to be the left-handed setup guy.
So there are some things to be encouraged about. By and large the pitching looks better. Still going to be a long season, though, unless they do something about third base and the outfield. The Giants can win with just pitching and defense because their pitching is dominant. In the Cubs case, well, they look pretty anemic and do not project to score many runs.
Jackson throws hard and had a decent year with the Nationals last season. He is not dominating, but he does eat innings. He projects as probably the #3 starter for the Cubs, behind Garza and Samardzija. Anyway, he signed for four years and has a no-trade clause, so this figures to be his longest stay with a single team since his early years with the Tigers.
The only quibble I have with this kind of signing is that it is more a striving for competence rather than excellence. The Nationals, who are genuine contenders and have an excellent team, passed on Jackson, presumably because they had better options and actually wanted to win the pennant.
Villanueva is another competent pitcher who had a decent year with the Blue Jays, who similarly passed on bringing him back. His best years were in a long relief role and I would have projected him there with the Cubs were it not for the story he has been promised a shot at 30 starts in Chicago.
Assuming Scott Baker and Matt Garza begin the season healthy, that kind of leaves Feldman and Wood in the bullpen. The Cubs look to be making similar competent not glamorous signings to fill out the bullpen, reportedly zeroing in on J.P. Howell as a middle reliever. I'd have liked to see them acquire another lefty or give Wood a shot. The only other lefty is Jeff Russell who looks to be the left-handed setup guy.
So there are some things to be encouraged about. By and large the pitching looks better. Still going to be a long season, though, unless they do something about third base and the outfield. The Giants can win with just pitching and defense because their pitching is dominant. In the Cubs case, well, they look pretty anemic and do not project to score many runs.
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Down to the Wire Again
From recent reports, it looks as if the Cubs are finalists in the quest for the services of the much-traveled Edwin Jackson, kind of a consolation prize for missing out on the Anibal Sanchez train. Hard to figure out what happened with that deal, other than that Sanchez always wanted to sign with the Tigers and used the Cubs for leverage, or else the Cubs were never that close to a deal. Another theory is that the Chicago press, anxious to see some glimmer of life coming from Addison and Clark Streets, however faint, broke the news prematurely and queered yet another deal.
Who knows? Who actually cares? Neither one of these guys is an impact player, though Sanchez right now is clearly the better pitcher. If the Cubs land Jackson, it means two things. One is that you have to seriously question a person's judgment if he prefers to tie up his career for three years with the Cubs when he could spend the same time with the Rangers. The other is that the Cubs are kind of convinced they can build a representative team around pretty good pitchers like Samardzija and Garza and, in this case, Jackson.
Good luck with that if you are saddled with a team that doesn't score runs. They kind of followed that strategy during the Hendry years and came close in 2007 and 2008, the difference then being they scored runs then and they had an ace in Carlos Zambrano who at least some of time lived up to his billing.
Who knows? Who actually cares? Neither one of these guys is an impact player, though Sanchez right now is clearly the better pitcher. If the Cubs land Jackson, it means two things. One is that you have to seriously question a person's judgment if he prefers to tie up his career for three years with the Cubs when he could spend the same time with the Rangers. The other is that the Cubs are kind of convinced they can build a representative team around pretty good pitchers like Samardzija and Garza and, in this case, Jackson.
Good luck with that if you are saddled with a team that doesn't score runs. They kind of followed that strategy during the Hendry years and came close in 2007 and 2008, the difference then being they scored runs then and they had an ace in Carlos Zambrano who at least some of time lived up to his billing.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Meh
So far this off-season the Cubs needed to address so many problems you can only begin to list them. First off, starting pitching. Then the bullpen. Then you kind of realize you have no third baseman and one of the worst offensive and defensive outfields in all of baseball. Finally the bench.
How have they done thus far? Meh.
Right now the starting rotation consists in one guy coming off his first full season in the rotation (Samardzija), two decent starters coming off injuries (Garza and Baker), and two proven mediocrities (Feldman and Wood), of whom only one seems to have a significant potential upside (Wood).
To bolster the bullpen, the Cubs re-signed the free agent Camp (meh) and added the Japanese free agent Fujikawa, a genuine plus. Marmol now becomes somewhat superfluous. Russell is the only other guy in the pen who adds anything.
As far as the outfield and the bench goes, pretty much nothing. The Cubs picked up Nate Schierholtz on a one-year deal. This guy has been a reserve all his career, so he can hardly qualify as a game-changer. Plus his performance so far leads one to categorize him as a left-handed platoon player pure and simple who doesn't get on base. This probably leads to the less than thrilling conclusion he will platoon with Dave Sappelt in right until the Cubs conclude someone is ready to come up from the minors.
Soriano is still on the team in left field. DeJesus, I suppose, will start the year in center with Jackson back at AAA. Jackson has supposedly reconfigured his swing in an effort to bring his strikeout rate below 50%.
Navarro was a good pick up to back up Castillo at catcher, but, beyond that, there isn't much depth. Looks like they will go into the year with Luis Valbuena at third even if they sign the non-tendered Ian Stewart.
To be honest, this team looks a little worse on paper than last year's going into the season. Hard to be optimistic, isn't it?
How have they done thus far? Meh.
Right now the starting rotation consists in one guy coming off his first full season in the rotation (Samardzija), two decent starters coming off injuries (Garza and Baker), and two proven mediocrities (Feldman and Wood), of whom only one seems to have a significant potential upside (Wood).
To bolster the bullpen, the Cubs re-signed the free agent Camp (meh) and added the Japanese free agent Fujikawa, a genuine plus. Marmol now becomes somewhat superfluous. Russell is the only other guy in the pen who adds anything.
As far as the outfield and the bench goes, pretty much nothing. The Cubs picked up Nate Schierholtz on a one-year deal. This guy has been a reserve all his career, so he can hardly qualify as a game-changer. Plus his performance so far leads one to categorize him as a left-handed platoon player pure and simple who doesn't get on base. This probably leads to the less than thrilling conclusion he will platoon with Dave Sappelt in right until the Cubs conclude someone is ready to come up from the minors.
Soriano is still on the team in left field. DeJesus, I suppose, will start the year in center with Jackson back at AAA. Jackson has supposedly reconfigured his swing in an effort to bring his strikeout rate below 50%.
Navarro was a good pick up to back up Castillo at catcher, but, beyond that, there isn't much depth. Looks like they will go into the year with Luis Valbuena at third even if they sign the non-tendered Ian Stewart.
To be honest, this team looks a little worse on paper than last year's going into the season. Hard to be optimistic, isn't it?
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Feldman
Looks like the Cubs search for genuine mediocrity has hit the jackpot once again. The Cubs announced this morning they had signed Scott Feldman, formerly a kind of glorified swing man with the Texas Rangers, to a one-year deal, presumably to be their fifth starter.
Statistics guys (see Fangraphs) think he is a sleeper, but you've got to wonder. Sure, some of his stats look good or comparable to Brandon McCarthy's, but come on, this guy gives up a lot of runs and his LOB percentage is next to last in baseball.
So, lets see, last year the Cubs started out with a rotation of Dempster, Samardzija, Maholm, Garza, Volstad, with Wood and Wells in reserve. They were on a pace to lose around 90 games before the trade deadline. After disposing of Dempster and Maholm and losing Garza to injury, they were able to hit the 100 loss plateau.
This year right now they go into the season with a rotation of Samardzija, Wood, Baker, Garza, and Feldman. Do the math. This is a 90 loss rotation and 100 assuming the Cubs trade Baker and Feldman at the break and maybe Garza as well.
Really, though, the problem with this team is not just pitching, it is hitting. These guys do not get on base and they do not score runs and they strike out all the time. Nothing so far in the off-season improves the offense. The Cubs are set at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop. You can even argue for a little improvement as Rizzo enters his first full season and Castillo is a significant improvement over Soto.
But after that, this team has a weak bullpen, no bench and glaring holes at third base and center field. Not to mention sub-par production in left and right field. Some people think Soriano and DeJesus had productive seasons in 2012. They did not and they are not championship players. I have to eat a little crow on my assessment of Soriano as I expected him to be finished, but this guy is an out 70% of the time and a strikeout a quarter of the time.
So the truth is that next year right now looks as bleak as last year. Sorry to have become a nay-sayer this soon, but if there is a master plan, I don't see it.
Statistics guys (see Fangraphs) think he is a sleeper, but you've got to wonder. Sure, some of his stats look good or comparable to Brandon McCarthy's, but come on, this guy gives up a lot of runs and his LOB percentage is next to last in baseball.
So, lets see, last year the Cubs started out with a rotation of Dempster, Samardzija, Maholm, Garza, Volstad, with Wood and Wells in reserve. They were on a pace to lose around 90 games before the trade deadline. After disposing of Dempster and Maholm and losing Garza to injury, they were able to hit the 100 loss plateau.
This year right now they go into the season with a rotation of Samardzija, Wood, Baker, Garza, and Feldman. Do the math. This is a 90 loss rotation and 100 assuming the Cubs trade Baker and Feldman at the break and maybe Garza as well.
Really, though, the problem with this team is not just pitching, it is hitting. These guys do not get on base and they do not score runs and they strike out all the time. Nothing so far in the off-season improves the offense. The Cubs are set at catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop. You can even argue for a little improvement as Rizzo enters his first full season and Castillo is a significant improvement over Soto.
But after that, this team has a weak bullpen, no bench and glaring holes at third base and center field. Not to mention sub-par production in left and right field. Some people think Soriano and DeJesus had productive seasons in 2012. They did not and they are not championship players. I have to eat a little crow on my assessment of Soriano as I expected him to be finished, but this guy is an out 70% of the time and a strikeout a quarter of the time.
So the truth is that next year right now looks as bleak as last year. Sorry to have become a nay-sayer this soon, but if there is a master plan, I don't see it.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Odds and Ends
This is shaping up as another rather blah off-season for the Cubs who seem content to rest in mediocrity. They signed their only free agent, the mediocre middle-reliever Sean Camp who had an up season at age 37 last year. He's cheap and expendable, but the history of guys like this is to follow a good season with lots of appearances with a truly awful year when they cannot get people out at all.
The Cubs did pick up Donner Navarro as a backup catcher. This is a good signing. He can hit in a backup role and he will not embarrass his team defensively. They also unloaded the useless Jeff Brigham for a Rangers prospect in Barrett Loux. Loux has been hurt nearly his entire career, but could be a good starter were he to remain healthy. He went 14-1 at AA last year.
For all the talk of pursuing starting pitchers, the Cubs have been pretty quiet. I'd like to see them go after Brandon McCarthy for one. He has a lot of upside if he has recovered from his freak injury last year.
I was a little sad to see Bryan LaHair released to play in Japan. I never thought he got a fair shake with any of the teams he played for. When the Cubs decided he could not hit left-handers, he seemed to lose his mechanics altogether. I wonder why they never tried him at third base.
The Cubs really need to rethink their strategies with respect to free agency. The market has become both more rational and more irrational. By that I mean the impact or potential impact players are usually higher risk guys who sign long-term for exorbitant prices. The rest of the market is usually composed of mediocre role-players, David DeJesus types or worse, players around whom winners are not typically built. Fewer players with exceptional talent who are eligible for free agency the first time are hitting the market because they are getting locked up in longer term extensions.
The real values in terms of impact players increasingly come from foreign leagues. On this topic, the Cubs are apparently one of several teams to make an offer to the Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa. This guy is very good and would be a great acquisition. In the process, he would free up Carlos Marmol to move back to setup or for a trade.
Now if only they could dump Alfonso Soriano.
The Cubs did pick up Donner Navarro as a backup catcher. This is a good signing. He can hit in a backup role and he will not embarrass his team defensively. They also unloaded the useless Jeff Brigham for a Rangers prospect in Barrett Loux. Loux has been hurt nearly his entire career, but could be a good starter were he to remain healthy. He went 14-1 at AA last year.
For all the talk of pursuing starting pitchers, the Cubs have been pretty quiet. I'd like to see them go after Brandon McCarthy for one. He has a lot of upside if he has recovered from his freak injury last year.
I was a little sad to see Bryan LaHair released to play in Japan. I never thought he got a fair shake with any of the teams he played for. When the Cubs decided he could not hit left-handers, he seemed to lose his mechanics altogether. I wonder why they never tried him at third base.
The Cubs really need to rethink their strategies with respect to free agency. The market has become both more rational and more irrational. By that I mean the impact or potential impact players are usually higher risk guys who sign long-term for exorbitant prices. The rest of the market is usually composed of mediocre role-players, David DeJesus types or worse, players around whom winners are not typically built. Fewer players with exceptional talent who are eligible for free agency the first time are hitting the market because they are getting locked up in longer term extensions.
The real values in terms of impact players increasingly come from foreign leagues. On this topic, the Cubs are apparently one of several teams to make an offer to the Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa. This guy is very good and would be a great acquisition. In the process, he would free up Carlos Marmol to move back to setup or for a trade.
Now if only they could dump Alfonso Soriano.
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