World Series

I have to say that for two teams I had relatively little attachment to and one, the Royals, for which I had little respect, this was quite an exciting Series.  The seventh game was one of the most tense and hotly contested seventh games I have seen.  I rooted for the Giants, of course.  I'm a National League fan and, besides, I can never bring myself to root for a team from Missouri, no matter how gutsy they are.

As far as the MVP goes, Bumgarner is the man.  I thought he would only go two or three of the middle innings, but he managed five.  A couple of observations, one being the Royals do not hit lefties well.  I mean, Bumgarner is an ace, but they were lost against Affeldt as well.  I don't know how they fared against left-handed pitching during the season, but they sure came up empty in October.  The other observation is I hope the Giants haven't ruined Bumgarner for the future.  He threw a lot of innings this year and a lot of pitches in the post-season for a young pitcher.

Finally, it looks like the Cubs have pulled the trigger on Joe Maddon, which is good news if it pans out, which it better do since you cannot strike out on big name guys two years in a row and expect anybody to want to manage for you in the future, including Rick Renteria.

Joe Maddon

Word is that after a surprise discovery that he could opt out of his contract with the Rays if their GM left, Joe Maddon did just that.  Word is also that the Cubs are front runners to sign him  If the Cubs think they are real contenders next year, it is time to hire a real manager, which Maddon really is.  They should jump on this.

Playoff Baseball

And other stuff, I guess.  I've enjoyed the playoffs as much as is humanly possible.  Am I the only one who cannot stand the TV coverage, which is generally ill-informed at best.  And, geez, the length of the games!  I'll tell you what will improve the situation with these interminable games.  Cut the damn commercials.  I mean, in the regular season there is a substantial commercial break between innings, but in the post-season it is twice as long.  There is already a natural break of a couple of minutes between innings, which, of course, adds thirty minutes or so to the game.  In the playoffs, this seems to be doubled or more.  That's nearly ninety minutes of inaction right there.

As far as the games themselves, there were quite a few exciting games.  I cannot say all the teams were exciting.  Try as I might, although the Royals are a Cinderella story, I can't say they are a good team or they really belong.  I expect the Giants to win the Series rather easily.  The Giants really are a very good, solid, team.  Also, it was really good to see the Cards go down.  They play good ball, but I just don't like them.

I saw an interesting piece recently that discussed the topic of the effect of the strike zone on run production.  The author's premise is that, over recent years, umpires have started calling more low strikes, actually lowering the strike zone below the knees, and narrowing the zone as it affects the corners.  This has shifted the advantage to pitching with obvious results.  He makes a convincing argument that explains at least some of the lack of production.  I haven't really noticed this watching games, though I will say that if the camera illustrations on TV of balls and strikes are accurate, the umpires are, in general, highly inconsistent and prone to error.

Recently there was a long exchange on the Cubs MLB Board, as well as others, about strikeouts.  Many Cubs fans, noticing the preference of Cubs players for the strikeout as a preferred outcome of their at-bats, have argued that strikeouts do not matter.  So. presumably, it is not a great worry that several Cubs prospects strike out all the time.  (I think Baez set some sort of record for percentage of strikeouts for a player with at least 200 plate appearances).

Actually, it is perfectly true that there is a weak correlation in most statistical analyses between strikeouts and winning percentage.  There is, however, a strong and statistically significant inverse correlation between strikeouts and runs scored.  There is a similarly strong correlation between runs scored and winning percentage.  So, looking at the big picture, strikeouts do matter.

Reason to Hope?

Probably.  The papers are full of happy talk about the Cubs future, including pearls of wisdom from Castro and Rizzo about winning a division next year.  That's certainly possible.  The NL Central, despite providing two playoff teams for the second straight season, is not the strongest in baseball, nor are the Pirates and Cardinals powerhouse teams without significant weaknesses.

On the plus side, the Cubs went 31-28 in the last two months of 2014 despite trading away Samardzija and Hammel, playing a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, and losing both Rizzo and Castro to injuries for a good chunk of that time.

They sure did not win because of their hitting, as they continue to have problems scoring runs and putting innings together.  I am of a mind the real reason they did OK during the stretch was because of their pitching.  Arrieta and Hendricks were especially impressive and Wada did well to keep them in games.  The bullpen also seemed to gel when they could rotate Grimm, Ramirez, Strop, and Rondon into the late innings of close games or games when they had the lead.  The addition of another lefty in the pen and a first class starter like Lester would make them an impressive staff next season.

On the offensive side, besides the reconstruction of Castro and Rizzo as hitters, the positive steps were the progress of Chris Coghlan and the promotion of Jorge Soler.  In my mind, Soler is a potential star and Coghlan a keeper as a leadoff hitter.

Negative steps were the performance of Lake and Olt.  I still don't think Olt had a fair shot, especially late in the year when he was striking out a lot less on the days he played.  Lake looks like a guy they ought to give up on real soon.

Alcantara and Baez were not the successes that people hoped for.  Together they struck out about 40% of the time.  I think Alcantara will improve in this regard next year, though whether he will be a .300 hitter who gets on base enough to use his speed is another question.  At 2B, that's OK, in CF, where he is a work-in-progress defensively, maybe not.

I don't know what to say about Baez that has not already been said.  He is either a budding star or a complete dud.  Indications so far favor the latter.  OK, he's only 21, but he is just clueless thus far.  All players develop at a different pace, but, geez, I don't think that Trout and Harper looked this bad, nor did Castro who was even younger when he came up.  Baez's numbers and performance are worse than Lake and Olt, and that is saying something.

The free agent market is pretty thin for impact bats.  Russell Martin is the only guy worth a flyer and this means giving up on Welington Castillo.  Castillo has developed into a pretty good defensive catcher, but so far his offense has been inconsistent.  Might be too early to write him off.

Much of the Cubs hopes next year, even if they make the smart moves to shore up the rotation, will depend on how great an impact Bryant makes.  He is likely a sure-fire star, but will he be enough to push the Cubs to the top?

Season's End

One of the benefits of the end of the season assessments is the plethora of good journalistic reads that reflect on the year.  Here are links to a few:

Derek Jeter: The Longest Goodbye: This is a good sarcastic piece about the newly minted tradition of star players' last tours.  Enough already.

The Death of the .300 Hitter: Another reflective piece about the dearth of solid hitters in recent seasons, particularly this one.  Not sure I agree with everything, but a decent read.

Here are others more directly related to the Cubs:

The Cubs and Justin Masterson: This one might have been put out there by Masterson's agent.  Somehow I don't see it.  Masterson was a good but not great pitcher for the Indians before leveling off after a series of injuries.  The Indians faced a similar dilemma before they traded him at the deadline to the Cardinals.  They had a choice between extending and saying goodbye.  The Cubs would likely have to make the same sort of commitment in the free agent market, so how is this worth the risk?  Masterson has been pretty awful for the Cards in the stretch run.  Somehow I expect the Cubs to make a pitch for a genuine stopper this off-season if all this stuff about becoming a perennial contender isn't just blather.  Lester would be more like it.

Sheffield: Baez Needs to Fix Flaw in Swing: I happen to agree with Sheffield here.  There is something wrong with a guy's swing and approach when he misses that often.  You don't know what is going on behind the scenes, but it seems to me the Cubs approach with Baez is a little too casual.  Again it is hard for a fan to make a judgment, but to my mind - especially if Russell is what everyone says he is - Baez is a potential trade candidate.  The consensus is the Mets need a shortstop and they have young pitching to spare.  Somehow I always have doubts about the Mets young pitching.  Their press is often better than the real thing.  A better partner might have been the Marlins, who were likely to move Stanton before their latest push to extend him.  Who knows, maybe Stanton won't bite.

Bummer

Went out to the ballpark Thursday night, probably for the last time this season as there are only a handful of dates remaining.  Really cold as the night wore on and kind of irritating as well.  I've been to a lot of Cubs games in my time, but I cannot recall seeing half-a-dozen infants within about eight or ten rows ever.  Nor as many grinning fools taking selfies while play was going on.

Oh, well.  The Cubs started out like a house on fire, building up a 4-1 lead behind Wada, who has pitched quite well since joining the team, at least for the first six innings or so.  Given he is returning from surgery, I wonder if his lack of stamina is a result of this factor and, of course, whether he will improve over the off-season.  For some reason, the Cubs have always owned Greinke at Wrigley Field, and that was the case last night.

Once Wada hit the showers, the Cubs bullpen proceeded to blow the game, more or less as they did in the Toronto series last week.  Ramirez had nothing.  Virtually every Dodger hitter just teed off on him.  He was ill-served by the Watkins error, but that doesn't explain his failure completely.  For some reason, Renteria continues to be stubborn about his bullpen and there is never anyone warming up when a guy is obviously having an off night.

Actually there is not a lot to like about Reneria's handling of the team over the last few weeks.  I know it is September and I know Castro is out for the year and Rizzo has missed a lot of time and Soler needs an occasional off day, but these lineups are killers lately.  And the strategy or lack thereof is upsetting.  For example, the first four Cubs reach base and the Cubs score twice in the first inning without recording an out.  Kalish, who for some reason is playing CF and for some equally inexplicable reason is batting fifth, bunts.  Naturally, the Dodgers get the force at third, likely because neither of the Cubs base-runners thought anyone would be dumb enough to call a bunt or do so on his own.

Besides the Watkins error - now we know why the Cubs tried to convert him to the outfield, as he clearly cannot play 2B - the Cubs played a very sloppy game in the field and on the bases.  What is Valbuena thinking trying to take second on Gonzalez's error with Puig in RF?  These kinds of failure are perhaps natural to a young team, but there continues to be little improvement in play and virtually no consequences for those who mess up.

Actually, besides the loss of Castro and Rizzo, another reason the Cubs have played worse in September than August is the way the team has been handled, especially the pitchers.  Switching to a six man rotation means not only do you see an inferior starter 20% more often, but that your starters are pitching on an extra day's rest, which, at least for some pitchers, is not a good thing at all.  The other thing is that, having so many bullpen options, Renteria has chosen to alter a lot of the established roles his relievers have enjoyed and to use these guys at much longer intervals of rest.  Again, not necessarily a good thing, and not something that really tells you much about the future.

In any case, I left early and missed most of the really depressing play.  The last three innings took what seemed like several hours to play.  When I flipped on the TV at home, they were still playing.  To my horror, I thought I picked up the sound of these idiots who howl all the time in the late innings when all the sane people have gone home.  Say it isn't so.

Bad to the Bone

The Cubs have dropped six straight since their brief reach for respectability leading up to the Pirates series.  Sure they miss Rizzo and Castro in the lineup, but that's not an excuse.  They played pretty well when Castro was on bereavement leave or whatever that was and also through the early days of Rizzo's injury.  I have to think there is something deeper in this than meets the eye, although just what it is beats me.

A couple of things you can conclude.  One is the Cubs have no idea how to play on synthetic turf.  Thankfully there are very few of these obscene stadia remaining, but you would think one of the coaches would take some of the players aside and explain that the ball bounces higher and you can play further back in the infield and so on.  Maybe they could take a couple of grounders in infield practice.  Apparently not.

Another thing you can conclude is that right now Javier Baez is hopelessly over-matched.  His plate appearances are a joke.  Not only that but his entire approach to the game is clueless.  Witness his base-running in the first inning  when he might have scored from first base on Valbuena's double if he had not been looking around to see where the ball was instead of running full out and then running past the stop sign Jones gave him at third and getting picked off.  What strikes me most about Baez thus far is his lack of baseball intelligence.  You can have all the ability in the world but if you just do not understand the game, you are likely to stink.  Jay Cutler is an example of this theorem, by the way.

You can argue that the Baez play set the tenor of the game going forward.  The Cubs would have scored at least one run and might have got out to a decent lead.  Instead they played from behind the whole way after the Blue Jays manufactured a run when Olt messed up a grounder to first by not holding the runner sufficiently at second.  (A minor conclusion here is that Olt is not a first baseman).

The sixth inning, when Hendricks ran into a wall, was the highlight of the night.  Soler misplays a bloop single that bounces off the turf, but what is Kalish thinking?  He has the batter caught between first and second, but instead airmails the ball in the direction of home plate.  A more serious question might be why Kalish is playing center field in the first place. I guess I had nothing better to do the last few nights but watch this sorry excuse for baseball.

The thing is that nothing seems to change with this franchise.  Long ago even before the Epstein regime took over, I once likened the Cubs play to that of a 16-inch softball team.  Everybody has had the experience.  Guys try to hit a home run on every swing.  They run like crazy until someone throws them out.  The fielders all misplay nearly every chance, then throw the ball as far as they can in the direction of home plate.  Watch the Cubs play and tell me if there is a discernible difference in style.  No wonder Renteria is embarrassed.  He should be.