So the Cubs finished the day acquiring two modest but needed additions and not making a blockbuster trade. I'm OK with that and Cubs fans should be as well. You have to suppose the price was too high for the assets the Cubs wanted to get, players of the caliber of Ross or Carrasco or even Hamels. Haren should give them a solid six innings most days and it was not that long ago that Hunter was closing games for the Orioles.
On another level, the currency most of the sellers were looking for was top level pitching prospects. The Cubs don't have that currency in any great abundance, so they really did not have the ammunition to get much done. By all accounts, they tried hard to push Castro, but there were no takers, which is not surprising considering his contract and lack of performance this season.
They were probably wise to refrain from trading any big chips. Fans kind of get hypnotized by the big names floating around and fail to see that sometimes it is the trades you do not make that make the most sense. This year there were four former Cubs minor leaguers on the All-Star roster, Harrison of the Pirates, Archer from the Rays, LeMahieu from the Rockies, and Donalson now with the Blue Jays.
On the field, the Cubs won their third in a row and fourth of five since the dreadful Phillies series. Rizzo is carrying the team offensively right now, but they got a solid if not spectacular start from Hammel and good relief work from Motte, Strop, and Rondon. Glad to see Rondon move back into the favored ninth inning role.
Friday, July 31, 2015
Dan Haren Trade
The Cubs picked up a useful fifth starter rental in Dan Haren for two guys nobody has ever heard of from the minor league system. Good deal for the Cubs.
They are still rumored to be in discussions for Carlos Carrasco of the Indians and Tyson Ross of the Padres. Also rumors of a three-team trade between the Cubs, Padres, and Red Sox. Castro must be part of these talks, but it is hard to figure on their acquiring another pitcher unless they flip Haren in the deal. The Padres have muddied the waters, according to reports by insisting suitors pick up Gyorko's massive contracts. Gyorko is even worse than Castro, so that's not likely to fly with the Cubs anyway.
They are still rumored to be in discussions for Carlos Carrasco of the Indians and Tyson Ross of the Padres. Also rumors of a three-team trade between the Cubs, Padres, and Red Sox. Castro must be part of these talks, but it is hard to figure on their acquiring another pitcher unless they flip Haren in the deal. The Padres have muddied the waters, according to reports by insisting suitors pick up Gyorko's massive contracts. Gyorko is even worse than Castro, so that's not likely to fly with the Cubs anyway.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Rockies Series
The Cubs managed to pull out a win to take the series 2-1. Lester again pitched very well and this time Maddon went to Rondon in the ninth to preserve the win. I've got to say that I much prefer Rondon in this role, or at least more of a mix and match situation for the ninth inning. Motte had a good run, and he has turned out to be a better addition than I had originally thought, but he is basically a thrower, whereas Rondon seems to be developing into more of a real pitcher.
Trade rumors are still buzzing around the Cubs and I suppose they will continue to do so until the deadline on Friday at 3PM CDT. The Cubs will not play again until after that hour, so one would suppose the players may have some anxious moments. One guy who is pretty antsy is Starlin Castro, who supposedly went up to Maddon after he was pulled from the game Tuesday night. According to Castro, Maddon assured him he would not be traded, but, if you read the fine print, he really was only reassured he had not been traded that night.
One wonders if the Cubs are willing to pull the trigger on a major deal at this point. I have written about this in previous posts. The Cubs are 6-7 since the break and are now 2 1/2 games back in the wild card chase. They aren't hitting a lick these days except on rare occasions, which puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. To their credit, the pitching has held up pretty well with the exception of the fifth starter role, which has been a problem from the start of the season.
So the fifth starter is a big need. By all accounts, the Cubs are intrigued by Tyson Ross of the Padres. Ross is certainly a good #5, maybe potentially better. Rumor has it the Cubs are offering Castro and some lower level prospects, which would be a good deal for the Cubs. The Padres are apparently more interested in Baez. Right now, given Castro's poor performance, I don't blame them, but I would hesitate to trade Baez with all of his question marks. At least not for Ross. I would have been more comfortable dealing him for a genuine top of the rotation guy like Hamels.
When the Cubs sent down Richard, I rather thought they had a deal in the works, but, if there was one, it undoubtedly fell through. That fifth starter is the biggest need, though, as there is very little going on down on the farm. Wada was their most effective #5, but he is still hurt. On this front, I doubt the Cubs are willing to deal serious talent for a rental like Price or even Samardzija.
If you look at the games played since the break, you might conclude the bullpen was the problem. The two games the Cubs should have won for sure were the Friday night game vs. Atlanta and the Friday afternoon game vs. Philadelphia. Both were lost by late inning failures in the bullpen, namely, Strop and Motte (later Soriano). I kind of look at this matter differently, in that this need has to be weighed against what it would take to acquire a genuine stopper like Kimbrel. Most of the Cubs bullpen failures have been more a result of overwork or overuse, really injudicious deployment of talent than the absolute lack of it.
The Cubs do need to straighten out the roster situation, though. Right now they have thirteen pitchers, certainly one too many. Of those, nine are relievers, which is a ridiculous number at this stage of the season, especially when you consider there are always one or two guys they never ever use floating around there. Until yesterday, the Cubs were carrying Neil Ramirez, who has actually been hurt or on the verge of being hurt the whole time since returning from the disabled list. Medina will almost certainly be sent down should the team acquire a fifth starter.
Still, one more guy has to go. My candidate is Soriano, who has shown nothing and maybe should be disabled or just dumped. Perhaps that is unfair to the player. He has had rather little in the way of preparation since he was signed, but his performance so far is really a continuation of his meltdown last year with the Nationals. It may be time for him to hang it up. If he is still out there when the dust settles, it is likely that he becomes the next Edwin Jackson, at least in terms of the way he is used.
Which brings up the utility/bench player issue. I can see the use of picking up a left-handed hitting outfielder, but, when you think about it, they may already have filled that need with Schwarber, who is likely to stick around even when Montero is activated. Personally I think the team is more likely to look for help in the minors or in bringing someone off the DL, more likely LaStella and/or Baez. These moves would be greatly facilitated by dumping Castro before the deadline.
Trade rumors are still buzzing around the Cubs and I suppose they will continue to do so until the deadline on Friday at 3PM CDT. The Cubs will not play again until after that hour, so one would suppose the players may have some anxious moments. One guy who is pretty antsy is Starlin Castro, who supposedly went up to Maddon after he was pulled from the game Tuesday night. According to Castro, Maddon assured him he would not be traded, but, if you read the fine print, he really was only reassured he had not been traded that night.
One wonders if the Cubs are willing to pull the trigger on a major deal at this point. I have written about this in previous posts. The Cubs are 6-7 since the break and are now 2 1/2 games back in the wild card chase. They aren't hitting a lick these days except on rare occasions, which puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. To their credit, the pitching has held up pretty well with the exception of the fifth starter role, which has been a problem from the start of the season.
So the fifth starter is a big need. By all accounts, the Cubs are intrigued by Tyson Ross of the Padres. Ross is certainly a good #5, maybe potentially better. Rumor has it the Cubs are offering Castro and some lower level prospects, which would be a good deal for the Cubs. The Padres are apparently more interested in Baez. Right now, given Castro's poor performance, I don't blame them, but I would hesitate to trade Baez with all of his question marks. At least not for Ross. I would have been more comfortable dealing him for a genuine top of the rotation guy like Hamels.
When the Cubs sent down Richard, I rather thought they had a deal in the works, but, if there was one, it undoubtedly fell through. That fifth starter is the biggest need, though, as there is very little going on down on the farm. Wada was their most effective #5, but he is still hurt. On this front, I doubt the Cubs are willing to deal serious talent for a rental like Price or even Samardzija.
If you look at the games played since the break, you might conclude the bullpen was the problem. The two games the Cubs should have won for sure were the Friday night game vs. Atlanta and the Friday afternoon game vs. Philadelphia. Both were lost by late inning failures in the bullpen, namely, Strop and Motte (later Soriano). I kind of look at this matter differently, in that this need has to be weighed against what it would take to acquire a genuine stopper like Kimbrel. Most of the Cubs bullpen failures have been more a result of overwork or overuse, really injudicious deployment of talent than the absolute lack of it.
The Cubs do need to straighten out the roster situation, though. Right now they have thirteen pitchers, certainly one too many. Of those, nine are relievers, which is a ridiculous number at this stage of the season, especially when you consider there are always one or two guys they never ever use floating around there. Until yesterday, the Cubs were carrying Neil Ramirez, who has actually been hurt or on the verge of being hurt the whole time since returning from the disabled list. Medina will almost certainly be sent down should the team acquire a fifth starter.
Still, one more guy has to go. My candidate is Soriano, who has shown nothing and maybe should be disabled or just dumped. Perhaps that is unfair to the player. He has had rather little in the way of preparation since he was signed, but his performance so far is really a continuation of his meltdown last year with the Nationals. It may be time for him to hang it up. If he is still out there when the dust settles, it is likely that he becomes the next Edwin Jackson, at least in terms of the way he is used.
Which brings up the utility/bench player issue. I can see the use of picking up a left-handed hitting outfielder, but, when you think about it, they may already have filled that need with Schwarber, who is likely to stick around even when Montero is activated. Personally I think the team is more likely to look for help in the minors or in bringing someone off the DL, more likely LaStella and/or Baez. These moves would be greatly facilitated by dumping Castro before the deadline.
Sunday, July 26, 2015
Beginning of the End?
Some people are writing off the Cubs wild card chances this season. I wouldn't do so yet, but they are playing lousy baseball and have been all through July. Sunday's game was the nadir. Most of the time they looked half-asleep in the outfield, misplaying too many balls to mention and generally looking as if they did not care.
I suppose this can be the case with young teams that will so often rise and fall on a crest of emotion. Friday's game did not help matters. The Cubs had it pretty much sewn up only to see it slip away with a blown save in the ninth and a bullpen meltdown in extra innings. The no-hitter didn't help much either on Saturday, but the final game was the worst.
It has to be frustrating for these guys who have by and large experienced only success, but it is getting a little tiresome watching Kris Bryant doing his best vintage Shawon Dunstan impersonation and strike out on every slider two inches above the ground and a foot outside. Similarly, Anthony Rizzo is swinging for the fences every time.
Maybe the Cubs should have pulled the trigger on trading for Hamels before he got to pitch the no-hitter Saturday. You have to remember, though, the Cubs were playing the Phillies this weekend. The Phillies are a last place team whose manager just quit and who are fielding a group of washed-up veterans and AAA players with the notable exception of Hamels and a couple of other pitchers. Being swept at home against these guys does not inspire confidence.
The Cubs finish off the homestand against another last place team, the Rockies, before traveling to Milwaukee to play the Brewers, also in last place. Things get a little sticky the following week when they have to play the Pirates and the Giants, but these are wild card rivals and they have to show they can beat them to be considered a legitimate playoff team.
Lets hope for a quick turnaround soon.
I suppose this can be the case with young teams that will so often rise and fall on a crest of emotion. Friday's game did not help matters. The Cubs had it pretty much sewn up only to see it slip away with a blown save in the ninth and a bullpen meltdown in extra innings. The no-hitter didn't help much either on Saturday, but the final game was the worst.
It has to be frustrating for these guys who have by and large experienced only success, but it is getting a little tiresome watching Kris Bryant doing his best vintage Shawon Dunstan impersonation and strike out on every slider two inches above the ground and a foot outside. Similarly, Anthony Rizzo is swinging for the fences every time.
Maybe the Cubs should have pulled the trigger on trading for Hamels before he got to pitch the no-hitter Saturday. You have to remember, though, the Cubs were playing the Phillies this weekend. The Phillies are a last place team whose manager just quit and who are fielding a group of washed-up veterans and AAA players with the notable exception of Hamels and a couple of other pitchers. Being swept at home against these guys does not inspire confidence.
The Cubs finish off the homestand against another last place team, the Rockies, before traveling to Milwaukee to play the Brewers, also in last place. Things get a little sticky the following week when they have to play the Pirates and the Giants, but these are wild card rivals and they have to show they can beat them to be considered a legitimate playoff team.
Lets hope for a quick turnaround soon.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Reds Series
The Cubs wound up splitting the four game set with Cincinnati. I don't think they played especially well. They showed a lot of grit winning the extra-inning game Tuesday night and coming back from five runs down to win the nightcap last night. They had a winning road trip in any case.
The Cubs have not been playing that impressively over the last month or so despite getting really good, with a couple of exceptions, starting pitching and super relief pitching except for, again, a couple of blowups, mainly by Strop. This is mainly because, despite grinding out at-bats, they are just not scoring runs. They have a good stretch of games against weak opponents coming up, so the opportunity exists to make up some ground. The Cardinals and the Pirates are treading water right now, so the chance to make a run does exist.
On the positive side, Kyle Schwarber has certainly impressed, at least as a hitter. It makes you wonder whether Montero might become the next Wally Pipp. The Cubs plan to play Schwarber a little in left field as well as continuing his education as a catcher. You have to figure that with the timetable for Montero's return stretching into late August at best that the kid has probably seen the last of the minor leagues.
There is quite a lot of speculation about trade deadline moves. The latest focuses on Cole Hamels, who, as I have stated on multiple occasions, makes a lot of sense. He is a premier starter who is under contract for three more seasons as well as an option year. He is expensive, but the Cubs can afford it. David Price is probably the best pitcher who may come on the market, but he is a rental. If the Cubs cannot get Hamels, I would expect them to pick up a fairly ordinary arm to give them some assurance should Wada not recover from his injuries and hope for the best. Price will be available on the free agent market after the season is over.
The other rentals - Cueto, Leake, Samardzija, etc. - are good players, but the question is anyone you acquire will only start ten or twelve games. So figure they go 7-3 or something like that in those games, best case. I haven't computed the team's record when the fifth starter pitches, but the difference in the likelihood of winning is probably on the order of three or four games at best. The question then becomes whether it is worth a good prospect for the chance to make it to a one-game playoff that you might reach anyway without the trade.
I do, however, think the Cubs need to bolster the bench some way or other. In particular, I don't think they can compete through the month of August with thirteen pitchers and three catchers. Last night's second game was a good example of the trouble they are in with this configuration. Maddon had to use the Taylor Teagarden against Aroldis Chapman to pinch hit for the pitcher in the eighth inning with the game on the line. Sure, Teagarden delivered the winning hit, but how often is that going to happen?
The Cubs have not been playing that impressively over the last month or so despite getting really good, with a couple of exceptions, starting pitching and super relief pitching except for, again, a couple of blowups, mainly by Strop. This is mainly because, despite grinding out at-bats, they are just not scoring runs. They have a good stretch of games against weak opponents coming up, so the opportunity exists to make up some ground. The Cardinals and the Pirates are treading water right now, so the chance to make a run does exist.
On the positive side, Kyle Schwarber has certainly impressed, at least as a hitter. It makes you wonder whether Montero might become the next Wally Pipp. The Cubs plan to play Schwarber a little in left field as well as continuing his education as a catcher. You have to figure that with the timetable for Montero's return stretching into late August at best that the kid has probably seen the last of the minor leagues.
There is quite a lot of speculation about trade deadline moves. The latest focuses on Cole Hamels, who, as I have stated on multiple occasions, makes a lot of sense. He is a premier starter who is under contract for three more seasons as well as an option year. He is expensive, but the Cubs can afford it. David Price is probably the best pitcher who may come on the market, but he is a rental. If the Cubs cannot get Hamels, I would expect them to pick up a fairly ordinary arm to give them some assurance should Wada not recover from his injuries and hope for the best. Price will be available on the free agent market after the season is over.
The other rentals - Cueto, Leake, Samardzija, etc. - are good players, but the question is anyone you acquire will only start ten or twelve games. So figure they go 7-3 or something like that in those games, best case. I haven't computed the team's record when the fifth starter pitches, but the difference in the likelihood of winning is probably on the order of three or four games at best. The question then becomes whether it is worth a good prospect for the chance to make it to a one-game playoff that you might reach anyway without the trade.
I do, however, think the Cubs need to bolster the bench some way or other. In particular, I don't think they can compete through the month of August with thirteen pitchers and three catchers. Last night's second game was a good example of the trouble they are in with this configuration. Maddon had to use the Taylor Teagarden against Aroldis Chapman to pinch hit for the pitcher in the eighth inning with the game on the line. Sure, Teagarden delivered the winning hit, but how often is that going to happen?
Monday, July 20, 2015
Braves Series - Jackson Gone
The Cubs played good ball in Atlanta and emerged from the series winning two games of the three. They might have swept were it not for Pedro Strop's breakdown in the eighth inning of game one, his second blowup in as many tries. I have to admit that I cringed in Sunday's game when Strop came out for the eighth inning again, though he somehow worked through it despite a bad beginning.
Maddon is a little stubborn in his bullpen decisions. Especially with the addition of Soriano, the Cubs have a wealth of choices late in the game and things are improving a lot with their top four guys going deep into the game. They can afford a little more flexibility in assigning these roles and going more often with the hot hand, which, right now, is not Strop.
The Cubs are still not scoring enough runs, but they did manage four in the last two games against the Braves, which was enough to win. They are still seeing a lot of pitches and driving up pitch counts. Lately, however, they have been getting a little antsy with two strikes, which has resulted in a lot of outs and a declining on-base percentage.
I'm not sure what the solution is. Minimizing Castro's role is one key. He is having an horrendous year and needs to be moved or somehow straightened out.
Which kind of leads to what the Cubs are going to do at the deadline to improve. I do not think they need to do much with their pitching. Sure, a reliable fifth starter would be a nice addition, but unless they can pick up a veteran rental cheap, I do not think they are going this direction.
One reason they are not scoring is the bench. Getting rid of Jackson frees up a spot, but, at least initially, they have chosen to promote Soriano. I haven't seen the final word on Montero yet, but the first prognosis was pretty dire. The Cubs are kind of back to square one with Montero out, in that they are carrying thirteen pitchers and three catchers. That leaves only nine spots for the rest of the team, which is pretty limiting given that Denorfia and Coghlan platoon in left. That means you have only one utility player, Herrera.
In my mind, the Cubs have to move another pitcher and demote Teagarden if Schwarber hangs on. That frees up two spots which can be filled from the minors or via a trade. Zobrist makes a lot of sense on the trade front, as does Parra for a left-handed outfielder.
I wonder if the Cubs would ever think of transitioning Baez into a super-sub role as a way of working him into the scheme. He can play second, short, and third, and probably left field with some practice. Maybe they see if he is real by doing something like this, giving him four starts a week to protect him at this stage of his career. Although he strikes out a lot, he might be better than Castro if he could hit .250 with some pop.
Maddon is a little stubborn in his bullpen decisions. Especially with the addition of Soriano, the Cubs have a wealth of choices late in the game and things are improving a lot with their top four guys going deep into the game. They can afford a little more flexibility in assigning these roles and going more often with the hot hand, which, right now, is not Strop.
The Cubs are still not scoring enough runs, but they did manage four in the last two games against the Braves, which was enough to win. They are still seeing a lot of pitches and driving up pitch counts. Lately, however, they have been getting a little antsy with two strikes, which has resulted in a lot of outs and a declining on-base percentage.
I'm not sure what the solution is. Minimizing Castro's role is one key. He is having an horrendous year and needs to be moved or somehow straightened out.
Which kind of leads to what the Cubs are going to do at the deadline to improve. I do not think they need to do much with their pitching. Sure, a reliable fifth starter would be a nice addition, but unless they can pick up a veteran rental cheap, I do not think they are going this direction.
One reason they are not scoring is the bench. Getting rid of Jackson frees up a spot, but, at least initially, they have chosen to promote Soriano. I haven't seen the final word on Montero yet, but the first prognosis was pretty dire. The Cubs are kind of back to square one with Montero out, in that they are carrying thirteen pitchers and three catchers. That leaves only nine spots for the rest of the team, which is pretty limiting given that Denorfia and Coghlan platoon in left. That means you have only one utility player, Herrera.
In my mind, the Cubs have to move another pitcher and demote Teagarden if Schwarber hangs on. That frees up two spots which can be filled from the minors or via a trade. Zobrist makes a lot of sense on the trade front, as does Parra for a left-handed outfielder.
I wonder if the Cubs would ever think of transitioning Baez into a super-sub role as a way of working him into the scheme. He can play second, short, and third, and probably left field with some practice. Maybe they see if he is real by doing something like this, giving him four starts a week to protect him at this stage of his career. Although he strikes out a lot, he might be better than Castro if he could hit .250 with some pop.
Sunday, July 12, 2015
Crosstown Series
The Cubs won only one game of the three game set with the White Sox, although they should have won the first game as well. Five double plays in that game did not help. Castro, incidentally, has become a double play machine.
Lester continues to disappoint. Hendricks and Arrieta continue to impress. Arrieta is undoubtedly the team ace right now and would be the choice to pitch should the Cubs wind up in a one-game wild card playoff. Hammel looks like he is OK and will not have to visit the DL. I would like to see the Cubs take a shot at a legitimate starting pitcher at the deadline, but the reality is they can likely make the playoffs without one. I still think they are not going to risk trading a big chip if they can avoid it.
Of more concern is the hitting. The absence of Soler clearly hurt them, but, although Soler is having good at-bats since his return, the team is still not scoring runs. This is very frustrating, as the pitching, even with all the flux at the fifth starter slot, has been exceptionally good. Maddon is right in describing them as a swing-and-miss team. They are grinding out at-bats and getting pitch counts up, but they are still striking out too often.
I haven't seen anything definitive on Ross or Montero, both of whom are considered day-to-day. I'm assuming that if Montero does not have to go on the DL, the team will continue with Teagarden as the backup until Ross returns. If Montero is disabled, the Cubs are in big trouble even if Ross returns. They might be thinking of bringing up Schwarber in that eventuality. Schwarber can probably give a pretty good accounting of himself as a hitter, but he will be challenged defensively and as a handler of pitchers.
The most pressing need the Cubs have right now is to start scoring some runs. Looking at their lineup, aside from inexperience, the weakest spot is shortstop where Castro is not producing at all. Castro's performance is another reason why the Cubs are unlikely to be all-in for a proven starter at the trade deadline unless they have really given up entirely on Baez as a major league hitter.
The most likely moves might just be strengthening the bench, which is really not much to write home about now and is costing them runs when they have to pinch hit early. To do this, I rather think they need to move Jackson even if they have to pay most of his salary. Lets face it, they only use this guy when the game is lost, so what good is he really doing anyone. That actually frees up a bench spot, so the Cubs could pick up a veteran outfield bat, preferably a left-handed hitter, and bring up somebody from AAA, maybe even Baez for a shot when he is available, sending Baxter back to the minors in the process.
Lester continues to disappoint. Hendricks and Arrieta continue to impress. Arrieta is undoubtedly the team ace right now and would be the choice to pitch should the Cubs wind up in a one-game wild card playoff. Hammel looks like he is OK and will not have to visit the DL. I would like to see the Cubs take a shot at a legitimate starting pitcher at the deadline, but the reality is they can likely make the playoffs without one. I still think they are not going to risk trading a big chip if they can avoid it.
Of more concern is the hitting. The absence of Soler clearly hurt them, but, although Soler is having good at-bats since his return, the team is still not scoring runs. This is very frustrating, as the pitching, even with all the flux at the fifth starter slot, has been exceptionally good. Maddon is right in describing them as a swing-and-miss team. They are grinding out at-bats and getting pitch counts up, but they are still striking out too often.
I haven't seen anything definitive on Ross or Montero, both of whom are considered day-to-day. I'm assuming that if Montero does not have to go on the DL, the team will continue with Teagarden as the backup until Ross returns. If Montero is disabled, the Cubs are in big trouble even if Ross returns. They might be thinking of bringing up Schwarber in that eventuality. Schwarber can probably give a pretty good accounting of himself as a hitter, but he will be challenged defensively and as a handler of pitchers.
The most pressing need the Cubs have right now is to start scoring some runs. Looking at their lineup, aside from inexperience, the weakest spot is shortstop where Castro is not producing at all. Castro's performance is another reason why the Cubs are unlikely to be all-in for a proven starter at the trade deadline unless they have really given up entirely on Baez as a major league hitter.
The most likely moves might just be strengthening the bench, which is really not much to write home about now and is costing them runs when they have to pinch hit early. To do this, I rather think they need to move Jackson even if they have to pay most of his salary. Lets face it, they only use this guy when the game is lost, so what good is he really doing anyone. That actually frees up a bench spot, so the Cubs could pick up a veteran outfield bat, preferably a left-handed hitter, and bring up somebody from AAA, maybe even Baez for a shot when he is available, sending Baxter back to the minors in the process.
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