Some Thoughts on the World Series

Now that the dust has settled and the celebrations are done, and the terrible election and terrible result is over, I thought I would set down some observations about this Cubs team.  Just to make people aware of my own prejudices and bias, I've always thought that in sports and really in so many other areas, management can only use their judgment to put together the best talent they can find.  Similarly, the coaches and field manager can only provide the kind of instruction and environment that allows players to develop and use their skills.  Ultimately, it is the players who win games, and, in the end, it is their skills and character that matters.  Such was the case with the Cubs this year and it was a great tribute to the team that they did not fold in the face of adversity as so many previous Cubs teams folded, and that they came back in Game 7 despite blowing a safe lead in the eighth inning.

That being said, I've always felt that field managers do not win individual games, but they can lose them.  Such might have been the case with Joe Maddon this year.  Maddon has always been criticized for this management of the bullpen, even with Tampa Bay.  This year, after the fact, he was the subject of some criticism by sportswriters in general for his management of the World Series games.  Mike Krukow, the former Cubs and Giants pitcher and current Giants broadcaster, even accused him of arrogance and egotism for his handling of the bullpen.  Not sure I would go that far, but Maddon certainly changed his style in the series and it may have just as easily have turned into disaster for the Cubs.

The most obvious change in tactics was the use of the starting pitchers.  A great strength of the team throughout the season was its starting pitching and the fact they usually pitched deep into the game, thus taking pressure off the bullpen.  The four starters the Cubs used during the playoffs had each averaged more than six innings per start, which meant they ordinarily lasted into the seventh inning.  In the playoffs, only Lester maintained that average, the others were removed on an average of an inning sooner than usual, with Lackey averaging nearly two innings less per start.

Granted the playoffs are rather more tense do-or-die games, and that Lackey pitched poorly in almost all of his starts, but especially with respect to Lester and Hendricks, these moves were rather questionable.  In Game 7 of the World Series, Maddon removed Hendricks in favor of Lester in the fifth inning with a comfortable lead after a dubious ball and strike call led eventually to a two out walk.  Ross botched a throw to first on a pretty ordinary swinging bunt and then Ross and Lester completely screwed up a wild pitch that let the Indians back into the game.  Taking Hendricks out after five innings was certainly a defensible plan, but putting Lester into an unfamiliar role with a man on base was, I think, a little unwise.

All this strategy of pulling guys early with low pitch counts put a lot of pressure on the bullpen.  Eventually, Maddon seemed to lose confidence in everyone but Montgomery, Edwards, and Chapman.  However, the rest of the bullpen was not that bad and in some cases, although inconsistent, pitched rather creditably.  Chapman really became the stopper, a role he was hired to perform, but at which, frankly, he did not deliver consistently.  In the playoffs, he saved four games and won two, but blew three save opportunities.

Actually, the Cubs were looking to build a kind of three inning fortress with Strop, Rondon, and Chapman, but the thing never really materialized in the regular season, largely because of injuries to the first two members of the triad.  These guys never really rounded back into mid-season form, so the bulwark of the pen came to be Chapman.  The problem was that Chapman has never seemed comfortable with extended saves and he was not stretched out during the regular season, largely because of this.

Anyway, a lot of the criticism of Maddon's moves relates to the way Chapman was used during the last three games of the World Series.  Again, the two plus innings in Game 5 were justified.  It was a tight game and the team faced elimination.  The attempt to stretch Chapman to seven outs in Game 6 made no sense.  Granted, putting him in to get out of a jam in the seventh was OK, even clever, but once the inning was over, the Cubs could reasonably expect to coast in with a comfortable lead.  Bringing him out to start the ninth with a seven run lead was tempting fate looking to Game 7.  As it is, it turned out he was not sharp in Game 7 and nearly blew the game in the eighth inning.

Another item of criticism for Maddon, besides not dropping Baez and Heyward down in the lineup sooner, was game strategy.  I'm not sure there is a lot there to second guess with the exception of having Baez bunt with two strikes and the bases loaded in the top of the ninth.  That was a head-scratcher and more than anything, probably prompted Krukow's outburst.

Still, they won, and I think largely based on character and determination in the end.  The players simply did not want to go down as another Cubs team that blew the big one, especially after coming off the mat to tie the series and force a seventh game.

They Did It!

What a game!  And what a struggle.  I cannot say it was fun, though, at least from a fan's viewpoint.  All night long I thought they had it sewn up.  Hendricks was terrific.  Klubel was not.  They got an early lead.  What could go wrong?

As it turns out, plenty.  I suppose that every manager plays things differently in the post-season.  Maddon, however, kept protesting in all the post-game interviews that they were just going to treat these games the same as those in the regular season.  That really seems to have changed with Game 5 when Joe brought Chapman in for the long save.  It seems he fell in love with a different style and, in retrospect, it almost cost the Cubs a champioship.

In Game 6, Chapman was brought on early again, this time with a big lead and little necessity.  The opinion then was divided, of course.  You could justify it for sure, but it made you vulnerable to tired arms in Game 7.  I was really surprised to see Hendricks pulled in the fifth inning with a four run lead after an unlucky walk.  Lester eventually got the final out, but not without some uncharacteristic shaky defense from David Ross, a bad throw and a bungled up wild pitch that cut the lead to two.

Lester settled down after that until two outs in the eighth inning.  Maddon replaced him with Chapman after an infield hit.  I expect things just caught up with Chapman because he was just awful.  He could not get the third out if his life depended on it, eventually giving up a game tying homer to Davis.  Chapman is an interesting case as a closer.  He really is not all that reliable unless he starts an inning with a lead and no one on base.  I rather think that is beacuse he relies so much on the big fastball that he does not pitch.  In the bottom of the ninth with the score tied, Montero replaced Ross behind the plate and he called a different game, lots of sliders and curves.  The results were much better, extra innings.

Like most fans, I was cursing Maddon then for over-managing, especially when he had Baez attempt a squezze bunt with two strikes and the winning run at third base the following inning.  I mean, Baez just has to put the ball in play with one out.  That bunt is too cute.  Baez bunted foul, striking out.

Everything turned around with the rain delay before the beginning of the tenth.  Whether they were able to regroup or take stock of things, one does not know.  Supposedlly there was a team meeting.  In any case, they came out loaded for bear.  Schwarber singled.  Bryant hit a long fly to right that advanced the pinch runner Almora.  It turns out that took the bat out of Rizzo's hands because Francona had him intentionally walked.  It was still good strategy as getting a runner into scoring position put the Indians in a tough spot.  Zobrist came through with a double after a great at-bat and they got an insurance run on a Montero single.

I daresay the choice of Edwards to replace Chapman for the bottom of the tenth was eccentric.  He got two outs, but then gave up two hard hits that resulted in a run after the Cubs let the first guy take second because of defensive indifference.  Montgomery came on to induce a weak groud ball with his second pitch to seal the win.

You almost don't know what to say at this point.  The Cubs were undoubtedly the best baseball team all season long and their win was not just a reward for all their fans, but a fillip for baseball itself, a kind of vindication, as it were.  This Cubs team is qualitatively different from all their previous teams.  Every other year, faced with similar instances of bad luck or mistakes, they would and did fold.  Think back to 2003, for example.  This year, even down 3-1 against a determined opponent, and even sfter blowing a safe lead, they ultimately came through.  They are worthy champions.

I'm writing this in bed 3/4 of a mile from the ballpark and you can still hear the horns and fireworks and celebrations four hours later.  The firecrackers are driving my dog nuts, so I wish they'd stop.

Go Cubs!  I had doubts I would ever see this in my lifetime.

All Tied Up

What can you say?  Somehow the Cubs have lifted themselves off the mat and forced a Game 7, and it pretty decisive fashion at that.  Although the offense provided the highlights, three home runs including a grand slam from Addison Russell, defense was a part of the story as well.  Heyward  made two stellar plays, compensating for his truly awful at-bats.  Similarly Baez helped turn a spectacular double play.

On the pitching end, Arrieta turned in an excellent start.  He dominated the Indians when it mattered even though he gave them an inning after the Cubs had taken a commanding lead.  One thing I kind of wonder about, though, is the use of Chapman so early.  I know it makes sense to put your most intimidating pitcher in to cement a lead when there is trouble, but it seems that Maddon has lost confidence in everyone with the exception of Chapman and Montgomery.  That's kind of a shame, as there are some capable arms available who are certainly good enough to hold onto a five run lead.  So I get the statement Joe makes by bringing in Chapman in the seventh and having him pitch through the heart of the Indians batting order, but I kind of question letting him start the ninth inning with a seven run lead.

However, they have made it to Game 7 and that is the important thing.  Also, they have a rested Hendricks going against the Indians ace Kluber who pitches on short rest.  They are also likely to play in pretty balmy conditions, which greatly favor their hitters.

Some random observations:

MLB has been pretty lucky that the series has been played in two Northern cities with unreliable climates without seriously awful weather conditions such as happened last year in the NLCS between the Cubs and the Mets.  I mean, Game 7 occurring November 2 is really not a good thing, is it?

How come the Indians are the home team based on the result of a meaningless exhibition game that no one takes seriously?

Does MLB go out of their way to recruit the worst umpires they can for the playoffs and World Series?  These guys are almost always wrong.  Replays help, but, geez!  And the balls and strikes?  Joe West?  By all accounts, possibly the worst umpire available in terms of the accuracy of his ball and strike calls, not to mention his contentious demeanor and actions.

Tomorrow is the day (or night) of decision.  Go Cubs!

Survival

I don't believe I have ever watched a night of baseball more full of tension.  Of course, it is not every day the Cubs are involved in a do-or-die World Series game facing elimination in front of 41,000 screaming fans.  It seemed almost by sheer will from the fans and the players that they managed to win and force the series back to Cleveland for a sixth game.  Lets hope it continues on Tuesday.

Some observations:

Chapman earned his money Sunday night.  I have to say I never expected him to be able to dominate the Indians for three innings.  He had certainly not done so against anyone in the past, and he always has looked like a guy who preferred to earn his saves by coming in for a single inning with no one on base.  That fact was undoubtedly part of the sense of impending dread that affected everyone in the stadium and at home watching.  It's not like Chapman is Andrew Miller who seems to do this every other day.  Also, and for future reference should the Cubs or others be tempted to sign him to a long-term deal, Chapman is not really a baseball player so much as he is a superbly endowed athlete capable of one big thing, throwing a baseball 100+ mph consistently.  Teams can run at will on him, and, as we saw in the eighth inning, he doesn't always cover first base.

The Indians are a lot better team than most people think.  They did not crumble when the Cubs had their inning and they made this almost a gladiatorial combat to the end.

Maybe Baez should take batting practice.  Baseball is such a weird game.  You wonder how a player like Baez can look like a superstar who has finally figured it all out through the first two playoff series and look like a complete mope at the plate in this one.

Lester is one helluva big-game pitcher.

The Cubs seem to play very well when their backs are to the wall.  They seem to be able to provide one great offensive inning on a regular basis in these games.  It got them a long way during the season and maybe it will be enough to carry through to a championship.

The series goes to Cleveland Tuesday and potentially Wednesday.  These are evenly matched teams right now.  Home field favors the Indians, but, oddly enough, AL rules favor the Cubs because of their depth and the presence of Schwarber as DH.  The pitching match-ups also give the Cubs an edge if only because their remaining starters will pitch on full rest whereas the Indians starters will both pitch on short rest.

Maddon told the team to wear Halloween costumes on the flight to Cleveland.  Strange, but somewhat endearing none the less.

Go Cubs!

On the Brink

The Cubs played another lousy game Saturday night.  There is no other way to describe their performance.  Again the hitting or lack thereof and the lack of plate discipline proved their undoing.  Whether they are pressing or whether the Indians pitching is that good is probably a moot point now.  The only players who seemed to have a solid approach were Fowler and Rizzo.  Bryant was hopeless and made two errors in the second inning, one physical on the bad throw and the other mental on a throw that should not have been made that cost a run.

The team played with a sense of desperation.  Whether they can recover to at least take the series back to Cleveland is another big question mark.  You want to think so.  With Lester pitching against the weakest of the Indians starters Sunday night, the Cubs are still favored.  Also, they would send Arrieta and Hendricks on full rest against Tomlin and Kluber on short rest were the series to return to Cleveland.  They have to get over the hump, however.  They have done so before, notably in the LA series where they looked pretty bad in Games 2 and 3 as well.

One observation on Lackey.  This guy has serious anger management issues and they really do affect the outcome of closely contested games.  He was fuming all through the second and third innings about bad calls.  I could see only one egregious bad call, the rest were borderline or correct.  The thing is he loses concentration after one of these slights and he invariably makes a bad pitch on the next offering.

A Surprising Game (and Loss)

I guess that's baseball, but, under the conditions, warmish night, wind howling out to center field, no one would have expected a 1-0 game.  Given the Cubs offense, no one would have expected them to be on the short end.  Give the Indians credit, they have a pitching plan, which is to stick with the off-speed stuff, and, so far, through their own playoff series and now the World Series, it has been effective.

No one wants to talk about it, but even the implication of Maddon's post-game interview is that the wind must have got into the Cubs batters heads.  I daresay there was a reason the hitters got out of the strike zone.  By and large, all of them looked like they wanted to deposit the ball on Waveland or Sheffield for a grand slam even with the bases empty.  Baez, in particular, was a mess.  Back to the old high leg kick and all.  He came up twice late in the game with a chance to tie or win it and came up empty.  The Cubs win when the grind out at-bats, swing at strikes, and play within themselves.

Tomorrow is another day.

Of the controversies created after the game among fans and commentators, I have these thoughts.  Maddon defended his decision to allow Edwards to continue to pitch in the seventh inning with Crisp coming up.  His thoughts were he liked that match-up better than Montgomery vs. Guyer, who may have pinch-hit had he made a change.  I don't like it much.  First of all, Edwards was in his second inning of work and was on the ropes.  Secondly, there is no assurance Francona would have hit for Crisp, who is a switch-hitter and a veteran player.  Maddon has had a lot of success turning the Indians switch-hitters around, so why not take a chance.  Lets just say it was an odd and uncharacteristic choice.

As it turns out, Crisp got a bloop single.  Soler chose to play the ball on a hop, a safe play.  Could he have caught it.  That's pretty doubtful, and if he had tried, he would likely have had to leave his feet, which pretty much meant the run would have scored from third base anyway.  He was playing very deep at the time, as all the fielders were given the game conditions.  As it is he got the out at third base against the advancing runner and kept the game close.  The wild pitch was the key play of that inning, getting the runner to third.  Given that pitch, all the more reason to take Edwards out.  It is fashionable to knock Soler, but the guy did go two for three with a triple and he did give the Cubs two of the three scoring opportunities they had against Indians pitching.

Saturday becomes a must-win game for the Cubs and they have to beat Kluber or get him out early.  Weather conditions are likely to be similar Friday night.  Lets hope they get it together.

Cubs Even Series

The Cubs evened up the World Series at one game each with a 5-1 win Wednesday night.  I would not describe their performance as flawless, but they were in control throughout the game.  First off, Arrieta was on his game.  He took a no-hitter into the sixth inning.  He was, however, a little wild at times and he definitely ran up his pitch count.  Arrieta is definitely not the guy he was during the Cy Young run last year or earlier this season, but he is good enough to keep his team competitive deep into game.  He has developed a tendency to overthrow some pitches in the dirt when he gets in trouble.  This cost him a fun in the sixth when a wild pitch brought home the only Indians run.  Still, this outing was his best of the post-season by far.


Sticking with the pitching, it seems Maddon is much more comfortable turning the Indians switch-hitters around to the right side.  Montgomery bailed out Arrieta in the sixth and pitched two innings of very effective relief.  Chapman finished off the last four outs in typical Chapman fashion.

On the hitting side, I guess the story is Schwarber who continued to have productive at-bats and hit two singles with men on base that drove in runs.  Schwarber is rapidly becoming the story of this series the new Roy Hobbs.  Who knew he could bounce back from that terrible injury and still play in October, let alone recover his batting form?   There is some talk of playing him in the outfield when the series returns to Chicago.  I don't see an advantage to this and there are certainly risks involved.  Also, Schwarber is not exactly the greatest left-fielder when he is completely healthy, so his being in the field could pose not just personal risks, but risks for the team.  Another consideration is that he would almost certainly have to be replaced with a defensive substitution late in the game.  That's when his bat might do the most good.  All in all, the Cubs should not force matters.

The Cubs must be the most irritating team for opposing pitchers to face.  They just grind out those at-bats relentlessly.  Bauer threw 87 pitches in less than four innings.  The Cubs must have had nearly twenty men on base in the course of the game what with all the walks and errors and nine hits.  Granted they left thirteen men on base, but they scored often enough to win comfortably.

Francona has announced he will go with a three man rotation through the series.  He hasn't a lot of options, but this is going to work to the Cubs advantage.  Kluber came back on short rest against Toronto in the ALCS and lost Game 4.  Granted he pitched well, but he still lost, lasting only five innings.  The match-ups from here on out are very much to the Cubs advantage.  You have to like their chances.