That's pretty simple. Barring injuries, there is virtually none.
Among the position players, twelve players are pretty much locks to leave spring training with guaranteed spots, viz., Contreras, Rizzo, Zobrist, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Happ, Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, LaStella, and a reserve catcher.
The catcher will either be Gimenez or Caratini. Most people are betting on Gimenez because of his prior success catching Darvish, but I wouln't count necessarily on that. Caratini is on the 40-man roster; Gimenez is not, so basically someone is going to have to be dropped from that set to make room for Gimenez. Maybe one of the marginal pitchers, but, still, that could be a reach.
The Cubs could elect to add a thirteenth position player, though, for some reason, they always seem to like having thirteen pitchers. Should they choose to go with thirteen position players, they might elect to carry three catchers. That still leaves a 40-man roster problem to accommodate Gimenez, though. More likely they would choose an outfielder, seeing as they have only two pure outfielders on the roster now. In that case, they might go out and grab a one-year contract for a Jon Jay type player. Maybe Jon Jay himself, as he is still unsigned.
As far as pitchers go, again, I don't see a lot of competition. Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Quintana, and Chatwood are the five starters. Montgomery is the swingman. Morrow seems to be the closer. That leaves five or six more bullpen slots. You have to figure Edwards, Strop, Cishek, Duensing, and Wilson are certain to remain. That leaves one more spot should the Cubs go with thirteen and none should they go with twelve.
Grimm is likely to have quite a battle retaining his roster spot as he, along with Eddie Butler, is among the pitchers on the bubble who are out of options.
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Finally!
Frankly I was getting a little tired of all these Darvish rumors. I am glad the deal is finally done. Apparently six years, $126 MM. less than Lester got and less than I thought he would command.
One guesses the Cubs are done for the Winter unless they add a veteran utility player. One may also surmise that now that Darvish is off the board, the remaining free agent pitchers, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, will sign pretty quickly.
Pitchers and catchers report next week
One guesses the Cubs are done for the Winter unless they add a veteran utility player. One may also surmise that now that Darvish is off the board, the remaining free agent pitchers, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, will sign pretty quickly.
Pitchers and catchers report next week
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Brian Duensing
The Cubs have signed Brian Duensing to a two-year deal. I wasn't surprised, and the deal makes a lot of sense. Duensing was very effective after his early season problems. He should continue to be a valuable middle reliever, especially as the Cubs were a little light on experienced talent from the left side.
Duensing rejoins holdovers Strop, Edwards, and Wilson from last year's team, as well as Mike Montgomery as the swingman, and new additions Cishek and Morrow. Justin Grimm will compete for the eighth spot along with a bunch of unproven players like Dillon Maples and some other marginal guys like Randy Rosario.
Personally, I think seven relievers is quite enough for any team with a solid rotation, but Maddon often likes to carry eight relievers. Should the Cubs not sign a proven starter in free agency, Montgomery would be the logical choice to move up to a starting role, opening up another bullpen slot.
It's looking more and more as if the Cubs are content with the position players they have now and that they are unlikely to make a trade that separates them from any of their younger talent. I'm sure they would move Heyward and/or Zobrist in a minute, but they are not going to find takers for these players. Victor Caratini also is looking like the option of choice for backup catcher.
Realistically, there is no reason for the front office not to be happy with the roster of position players. They may lack a natural leadoff hitter, but, with the exception of Caratini or whoever emerges as the backup catcher, every other position player of the twelve guys who are a lock to make the team could start full time with a contending team and be productive.
Duensing rejoins holdovers Strop, Edwards, and Wilson from last year's team, as well as Mike Montgomery as the swingman, and new additions Cishek and Morrow. Justin Grimm will compete for the eighth spot along with a bunch of unproven players like Dillon Maples and some other marginal guys like Randy Rosario.
Personally, I think seven relievers is quite enough for any team with a solid rotation, but Maddon often likes to carry eight relievers. Should the Cubs not sign a proven starter in free agency, Montgomery would be the logical choice to move up to a starting role, opening up another bullpen slot.
It's looking more and more as if the Cubs are content with the position players they have now and that they are unlikely to make a trade that separates them from any of their younger talent. I'm sure they would move Heyward and/or Zobrist in a minute, but they are not going to find takers for these players. Victor Caratini also is looking like the option of choice for backup catcher.
Realistically, there is no reason for the front office not to be happy with the roster of position players. They may lack a natural leadoff hitter, but, with the exception of Caratini or whoever emerges as the backup catcher, every other position player of the twelve guys who are a lock to make the team could start full time with a contending team and be productive.
Friday, December 29, 2017
Free Agent News
Unfortunately not much, at least so far as the Cubs are concerned. I expect this is mainly owing to the market for the top of the line starters and relievers being slow to develop. That's mainly due, I think to the exaggerated demands being discussed for their services.
Darvish and Arrieta are generally supposed to be the pick of this group, with Cobb and Lynn heading the second tier. I'd like to see the Cubs pursue Darvish and pass on Arrieta. The truth is, nobody should be signing pitchers of this caliber to six year deals, especially for the kind of money they are seeking, which is in the neighborhood of $25MM annually.
At the beginning of the free agent season, Cobb was thought to be a great buy at around $50MM for four years. Turns out he is looking for five years and something like $80MM. Lynn seems to be the only one of these four who has not priced himself out of the market. It looks as if he will be the last to go after the first three settle.
Relief pitchers, an even more risky commodity, are looking for similarly inflated deals, at least the top of the market guys like Davis and Holland. Davis has signed with the Rockies for $52MM over three years, which is around $17MM annually. That's kind of absurd on the face of it. Davis was excellent last year for the Cubs, but if you look at his peripherals and his performance down the stretch, there are abundant red flags. Kind of glad the team passed on him. Holland is looking for similar money. Given his injury history and the fact his performance slacked off quite a bit toward the end of the year, he represents a considerable risk.
I rather think the Cubs have done well thus far in this market. There are still quite good relief pitchers out there, Reed and Watson among them. To my mind, Watson is a good fit for the Cubs. Should they obtain him, they might just settle on Montgomery as the fifth starter and go from there.
If you look at the big splash free agent signing in the Epstein era, they haven't exactly set the world on fire. The Cubs paid Earnest Jackson good money to be a complete flop. They signed Ben Zobrist to a four year deal, admittedly not a blockbuster, but so far they have got one good year, one terrible year, and two years of probably declining skills as this veteran player ages.
The Cubs gained instant respectability by signing Lester in 2015, but, in all honesty, he was a bit of a dud in his first season, coming on at the end, then had a super 2016 before a mediocre 2017. The team is on the hook for three more years at least for over $20MM a year.
The other big ticket player was Heyward, who is on the books for big bucks till God knows when. He might turn things around, but don't bet on it. If he does, he'll probably opt out the next year.
I'm not especially faulting Epstein and Hoyer here. The truth is there are more albatross contracts on the high end in MLB than bargains.
Darvish and Arrieta are generally supposed to be the pick of this group, with Cobb and Lynn heading the second tier. I'd like to see the Cubs pursue Darvish and pass on Arrieta. The truth is, nobody should be signing pitchers of this caliber to six year deals, especially for the kind of money they are seeking, which is in the neighborhood of $25MM annually.
At the beginning of the free agent season, Cobb was thought to be a great buy at around $50MM for four years. Turns out he is looking for five years and something like $80MM. Lynn seems to be the only one of these four who has not priced himself out of the market. It looks as if he will be the last to go after the first three settle.
Relief pitchers, an even more risky commodity, are looking for similarly inflated deals, at least the top of the market guys like Davis and Holland. Davis has signed with the Rockies for $52MM over three years, which is around $17MM annually. That's kind of absurd on the face of it. Davis was excellent last year for the Cubs, but if you look at his peripherals and his performance down the stretch, there are abundant red flags. Kind of glad the team passed on him. Holland is looking for similar money. Given his injury history and the fact his performance slacked off quite a bit toward the end of the year, he represents a considerable risk.
I rather think the Cubs have done well thus far in this market. There are still quite good relief pitchers out there, Reed and Watson among them. To my mind, Watson is a good fit for the Cubs. Should they obtain him, they might just settle on Montgomery as the fifth starter and go from there.
If you look at the big splash free agent signing in the Epstein era, they haven't exactly set the world on fire. The Cubs paid Earnest Jackson good money to be a complete flop. They signed Ben Zobrist to a four year deal, admittedly not a blockbuster, but so far they have got one good year, one terrible year, and two years of probably declining skills as this veteran player ages.
The Cubs gained instant respectability by signing Lester in 2015, but, in all honesty, he was a bit of a dud in his first season, coming on at the end, then had a super 2016 before a mediocre 2017. The team is on the hook for three more years at least for over $20MM a year.
The other big ticket player was Heyward, who is on the books for big bucks till God knows when. He might turn things around, but don't bet on it. If he does, he'll probably opt out the next year.
I'm not especially faulting Epstein and Hoyer here. The truth is there are more albatross contracts on the high end in MLB than bargains.
Monday, December 18, 2017
Darvish
Word is the Cubs are meeting with Yu Darvish. I had expected them to move in his direction earlier, but the market for starters has taken a while to develop. There are four free agent starters of quality remaining now: Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn, mentioned roughly in order of merit. It seems the Cubs were after Cobb, but his asking price is pretty high and the Cubs were turned off. The same appears true of Arrieta, at least in that the asking price is ridiculously high. I like the idea of Darvish joining the Cubs, though the price might be costly.
So far the Cubs have focused on pitching this off-season. Why not? Despite all the carping about not having a leadoff man and whatever, the team scored over 800 runs last year, an average of five runs a game. 800 runs is good enough for a championship most years unless you are Colorado.
The off-season has brought in Chatwood, whom I regard as a great choice, as well as Smyly from the starting pitcher group. Smyly is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss most if not all of 2018.
On the relievers front, the Cubs have reeled in Morrow, right now the likely closer, as well as Cishek, a likely setup man although he has closer experience. Davis, of course, is still unsigned, but his return is unlikely, especially if the Cubs go all in on Darvish or Cobb. Austin Reed has been linked to the Cubs as well. Reed would probably fill the closer role.
Notably lacking among the bullpen options are left-handers, which probably explains management's insistence on relegating Montgomery to the swingman role. Justin Wilson is now the only experienced lefty pure reliever on the squad, though they signed Dario Alvarez, something of an unproven quantity to say the least. On this score, Duensing is still on the market. The Cubs could do a lot worse than landing him to fill out the bullpen.
So far the Cubs have focused on pitching this off-season. Why not? Despite all the carping about not having a leadoff man and whatever, the team scored over 800 runs last year, an average of five runs a game. 800 runs is good enough for a championship most years unless you are Colorado.
The off-season has brought in Chatwood, whom I regard as a great choice, as well as Smyly from the starting pitcher group. Smyly is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss most if not all of 2018.
On the relievers front, the Cubs have reeled in Morrow, right now the likely closer, as well as Cishek, a likely setup man although he has closer experience. Davis, of course, is still unsigned, but his return is unlikely, especially if the Cubs go all in on Darvish or Cobb. Austin Reed has been linked to the Cubs as well. Reed would probably fill the closer role.
Notably lacking among the bullpen options are left-handers, which probably explains management's insistence on relegating Montgomery to the swingman role. Justin Wilson is now the only experienced lefty pure reliever on the squad, though they signed Dario Alvarez, something of an unproven quantity to say the least. On this score, Duensing is still on the market. The Cubs could do a lot worse than landing him to fill out the bullpen.
Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Rumor Mill
The Cubs signed Drew Smyly to a two year deal. He is not expected to recover from Tommy John surgery until August, so this is a pretty minor signing. Smyly was once a hot prospect for Detroit and pitched pretty well for Tampa Bay. He seems to have been injury prone for much of his career as his only season with 30 starts was 2016, his last full season as he missed all of 2017.
There was a bit of a controversy when Ken Rosenthal attributed some remarks to Mike Montgomery about his preference to being a starter and his general discontent. I wouldn't put much stock in it as Hoyer denied the whole business. It has been an open secret that Montgomery wants to work into a starting role as opposed to being a swingman. Personally, I've always thought he could make that transition and never could figure out why the Cubs didn't use him in a starting role exclusively.
Maddon is quoted as saying he would not rule out using Kyle Schwarber as a leadoff man again. This is completely idiotic on Maddon's part as that experiment had a lot to do with the Cubs poor performance in the first half of 2017 and pretty much ruined Schwarber's season.
The Cubs are, I think, unlikely to trade for another starter. Most likely, they will target Cobb for that role and then try to land at least another reliever or two in order to retool the bullpen. I seriously doubt that Archer is available by trade and even if he is on the block, the Cubs do not have the farm system right now to acquire him. There are similar rumors to the effect the Cubs could trade for Brad Hand of San Diego. Again, in this case I doubt you move major league talent for a relief pitcher.
The Cubs bullpen now consists of Morrow, Strop, Montgomery, Edwards, Wilson, and Grimm. That leaves one slot open for sure and probably two given the wretched performance of Grimm last year. They should be able to fill these openings through the free agent market even if they do not sign Davis, which is the likely scenario in any case.
There was a bit of a controversy when Ken Rosenthal attributed some remarks to Mike Montgomery about his preference to being a starter and his general discontent. I wouldn't put much stock in it as Hoyer denied the whole business. It has been an open secret that Montgomery wants to work into a starting role as opposed to being a swingman. Personally, I've always thought he could make that transition and never could figure out why the Cubs didn't use him in a starting role exclusively.
Maddon is quoted as saying he would not rule out using Kyle Schwarber as a leadoff man again. This is completely idiotic on Maddon's part as that experiment had a lot to do with the Cubs poor performance in the first half of 2017 and pretty much ruined Schwarber's season.
The Cubs are, I think, unlikely to trade for another starter. Most likely, they will target Cobb for that role and then try to land at least another reliever or two in order to retool the bullpen. I seriously doubt that Archer is available by trade and even if he is on the block, the Cubs do not have the farm system right now to acquire him. There are similar rumors to the effect the Cubs could trade for Brad Hand of San Diego. Again, in this case I doubt you move major league talent for a relief pitcher.
The Cubs bullpen now consists of Morrow, Strop, Montgomery, Edwards, Wilson, and Grimm. That leaves one slot open for sure and probably two given the wretched performance of Grimm last year. They should be able to fill these openings through the free agent market even if they do not sign Davis, which is the likely scenario in any case.
Friday, December 8, 2017
No Ohtani
I have to say it is no surprise the Cubs lost out on the Ohtani sweepstakes. They were pretty much a long shot to begin with. Now that Ohtani is off the table, I rather think the market for a lot of the big pitching assets will start to settle. As far as the Cubs are concerned, I honestly do not see them trading for either a starter or a reliever at this stage of things. There are just too many front line and middle of the rotation guys available on the open market right now. I kind of think they will make a play for Darvish, although this is far from certain. Cobb is the more likely target. As to relievers, it is not beyond imagination for them to try to land Davis, but, in a way, Davis is a costly piece who carries a lot of risk. I'm not a fan of paying relief pitchers big bucks as in general, I believe that closers are overrated commodities and the shelf life of relief pitchers is pretty limited. The Cubs have apparently made offers to Brandon Morrow and Austin Reed, either one of whom would be nice additions, Morrow presumably as the closer in waiting. Should be an interesting week coming up.
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