Daniel Murphy

A bit of a shock getting Murphy, but in a way one can see the logic. Murphy can certainly hit although his fielding and range are questionable. After the Pirates series especially, this offense, unaccountably, has serious issues. I mean, four runs, all home runs, 33 left on base.

Obviously, they miss Bryant. Perhaps this indicates Bryant is not returning to the lineup until mid-September. My guess is that Russell goes to the DL to make room. He is obviously hurting.

In many ways this is a curious addition in that it provides the club with a sixth capable second baseman to go along with Baez, Zobrist, Happ, Bote, and LaStella. Murphy is best suited on the Cubs to the DH role, which makes it all the more curious in that the team has only four more DH opportunities left, the upcomong Detroit series and the road half of the White Sox series in late September. The World Series, should they make it, would be the big payoff for this acquisition.

On the putching front, the news on Darvish was disappointing. I’m not sure losing Darvish is that much of a disaster. Montgomery, who has taken most of his starts since May, has arguably been their best starter until they picked up Hamels. If Montgomery can return to the rotation Saturday, this setback is not that significant for the team even short term.

Solid Game

Glad to see Rizzo drop down to cleanup. Big difference. Hitting fourth again tonight. Cubs were around break even throughout this experiment. As we pointed out before, no matter how often he is on base, it is meaningless if no one drives him in. Also shift was killing him.

Hendricks is rounding back to form. The Cubs need to get Lester going again. I wonder if they should skip a turn. His peripherals have been tending down now for a while.

Quick Hits

Just some thoughts about the team, not all of them good.

For a team that has the best record in the NL, they sure make heavy weather of things.   Back in 2016, the trademark was getting out to an early lead and coasting home. Nowadays the Cubs start out 3 runs down and have to come back nearly every day to get back in the game.

Not scoring early means your starters have to pitch under a lot more pressure. It also kind of leads one to the impression the Cubs offense may not be quite as formidable as it seems. Right now, these guys don’t score against respectable starting pitchers until the third time through the order or until they get into the opposing team’s bullpen.

The other great puzzle is the inability of the starters to get out of the first inning cleanly. Don’t they warm up properly?  Are they tipping pitches?  Are their sequences too predictable?  Is tgeir game preparation lacking?  Who knows?

These trends do not bode well for the playoffs.

It’s All About the Matchups?

So the Cubs play 4 against the Padres and 3 against the Royals before the Nationals series.  These are 7 automatic wins, but they are already down 1. What happened last night is kind of illustrative of the frustrations that have characterized this season. First off, Montgomery enters the 6th at about the 70 pitch mark. After a routine out, he walks the next guy. Maddon pulls him for his new favorite Jesse Chavez. Chavez gives up a bloop single and then a 3 run homer. Later on we see Duensing enter and put the game out of reach.

So my point is you complain about starters not going deep and having to use up the bullpen, but you routinely pull your starters in the 5th or 6th inning unnecessarily. Am I missing something?  It’s not like it’s the 7th game of the World Series.

The other observation is that without Bryant, the Cubs don’t score runs against lefties. And I cannot tell you how much I hate that lineup and Rizzo leading off. I don’t care how often Rizzo gets on base, it’s no use if he doesn’t score snd the team plays meciocre .500 ball.  Not to mention Heyward batting  third. Your 3 hitter is your best hitter.  Tell me in what alternative universe Heyward is the best hitter on this team.

There, I got this off my chest.

Pitching Log Jam

I generally think the Cubs addressed most of their problems at the trade deadline. Inadvertently, however, they seem to have created a new set. The Cubs have three players due to come off the DL in August. Obviously Bote will spend a couple of weeks at AAA when Bryant is healed.  What to do about Morrow and Darvish?  Only Duensing is pitching badly enough to get cut and he is signed through 2019. It will be interesting to see how Theo and Jed manage this one.

A Tough Loss

Lester didn't have his best stuff, but I really think it is fair to say the Cubs were robbed by the review process in the 9th inning when Russell was ruled out at third base on an apparent RBI triple with no one out.  It is possible that he lost contact with the base for a nanosecond, although how that might constitute the clear proof required by the review process I fail to see.  Moreover, this entire interpretation of whether a runner is safe or out is pretty much against the spirit of the game.  In this case, the whole inning changed from having a runner at third and no outs to one out and nobody on base.  It also gave the Pirates pitcher, who was clearly on the ropes, a chance to regroup.

I'm not a big fan of the review process even when it goes in the Cubs favor.  I've got nothing against the review of close calls at first base or boundary calls, but these are pretty easy to determine.  At first base the runner has no problem going all out mainly because he is usually standing up and he just has to beat the throw.  Things get a lot more iffy when the runner leaves his feet and a tag is involved.  I'd also argue that these microscopic reviews rob the game of excitement and often force teams to play more conservatively.  Plays like the one tonight are rarer now and less exciting because of the interpretation of the current rule and also because the review process interrupts the flow of the game as well as introducing a delay.  You more or less know that a close play is going to result in a five or ten minute examination.  Sounds like sour grapes and maybe it is, but the game is being changed by some of these interpretations and not necessarily for the better.

On a more mundane matter, I more or less approve of the Cubs acquisitions.  I think Hamel is a big plus and Chavez has already had an impact.  Kintzler may not be a household word, but he is a solid reliever.  I'm kind of curious as to who is sent down to Iowa or released to make room for Kintzler.  Rosario has options remaining, but he has pitched pretty well.  Duensing is obviously the worst pitcher in the bullpen, but, of course, he is a veteran with a year left on his contract. Perhaps he will be released anyway or DFAed unless he develops a sudden ailment.  He's actually pitching right now like a guy who is hurt.

The Rizzo Experiment

So, first off, the Cubs have split the first 12 games after the All-Star break.  They have played tough opponents who are fighting for playoff survival, so that's not too bad.  Of concern has been the starting pitching which, to a certain extent, the Cubs have tried to remedy with the Hamels trade.  On this topic, I think it was a good deal.  They traded off a Class A minor leaguer of some promise and Eddie Butler, a guy the Cubs had pretty much determined to have a low ceiling.  Hamels is not a bad bet.  His peripherals look good.  He was completely unsuited to pitching in Texas.  I kind of doubt they are going to make a big splash on a reliever.  The big guns are gone and they are unlikely to overpay for a lesser arm.

I'm not really all that worried about the pitching.  Hendricks was superb Sunday night and I think Quintana will bounce back.  Lester is the ace.  Montgomery is a pretty good #5, which leaves Hamels as the wild card.  Getting a good Darvish back and a healthy Morrow would be icing on the cake.

My real concern is the offense.  It has been inconsistent even though they lead the league in runs scored.  Which brings up the whole Rizzo thing and kind of illustrates a reason for concern in a roundabout way.

Rizzo has played 16 games at leadoff.  I think the Cubs are 9-7 in that stretch.  He has 60 ABs and 72 plate appearances.  His 24 hits make him a .400 hitter in that spot.  He has been on base 40 times, which is nothing short of spectacular.  However, he has scored only 9 runs, 4 of them on home runs he has hit.  That means that players batting below him in the lineup have driven him in only 5 times.

Now there is no doubt that the Cubs miss Bryant a lot and the nagging injury to Russell also hurts.  However, Baez has been hot as a pistol during this stretch, so the problem must be with Maddon's batting order.  I think it is really the placement of Heyward and Almora, who have been batting 3rd and 2nd respectively.  I've got no problem with Heyward hitting second or even leading off, even though in an ideal world he would hit lower down, but Almora is just not a guy who has the experience and poise to bat second.  When Zobrist plays and bats second, good things happen.

One cannot argue with success in Rizzo's case, but in my mind batting him first really serves to take away some of the RBI pressure he feels.  So it has allowed him to straighten himself out in terms of his approach.  Also, he seems to see the most exaggerated shifts a bit less leading off.  The shifts have really hurt him offensively this year.  I still think of him as a power-hitter RBI player with good plate discipline.  Maybe I am a traditionalist, but a player with these skills bats third or fourth.