So far not much action from the Cubs this winter, much to the consternation of many fans who expected big moves toward Harper or Machado or both. I've got to say that I am not of that number for reasons already explained in earlier posts.
I'm pretty certain the Cubs thinking goes along these lines, viz., we were good enough to win 95 games last year despite injuries to Darvish, Chatwood's complete meltdown, Morrow's and Bryant's injuries, Contreras's second half slump and Russell's suspension. Just assuming Bryant is back, Contreras gets some regular time off and Darvish is able to join the rotation, the team is in pretty good shape. Two out of three of these things happening wins five more games for sure.
Balanced against this is the fact the Cardinals and Reds have made big moves in the off-season. Probably not enough for the Reds to make a run, but the Cards are going to be serious contenders. Oddly enough, the Brewers have not made much of a splash. Personally, I always thought the Brewers were not as good a team as they proved last season and that they will likely regress.
Epstein and Hoyer have said they need to shed salary in order to make a big play. I take them at their word. The question is who gets shed to break some logjams. They have fourteen pitchers on the 40-man roster who are virtual locks to make the team including Morrow who will open the season on the DL. It doesn't include any prospects. It does include at least three pieces of deadwood, viz., Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler. My guess is they will retain Chatwood largely because nobody wants him and they need to rebuild some of his value. Also, he gives them some insurance against injury to any of the starters and he might come back. So Duensing and Kintzler are sure to be marketed. I would expect for low-level minor leaguers. Still, that doesn't save you much.
Most of the rest of the roster is set in stone right now with the exception of Russell who is suspended and not counted on the 40-man tally. The Cubs might decide to move players like Schwarber or Almora or Happ or Bote, but the real question is what they need and what they get in return that is better than their current holdings. I expect the answer to that is negative. Plus it doesn't save much money.
The one guy who would save substantial cash is Heyward. Heyward is ultimately completely expendable despite his relative youth and defensive prowess. The problem is his contract, which, aside from overpaying him, is full of loopholes and opt-outs so that any team taking him on is likely to be saddled with him for a long time if he flops or lose him almost immediately if he succeeds. The Cubs would need to subsidize any deal or take a similarly bad contract or virtually nothing in return.
Personally, I think the Cubs need a dominant left-handed reliever more than a Harper or Machado who will burden them with a ten year commitment that will entirely skew their salary structure and limit their flexibility for a long time to come. I was disappointed they were unable to reel in Miller, though, in the long run, he might be a big risk especially in a three-year deal. I'd like to see them make a run at Britton.
Sunday, December 23, 2018
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Not Much Activity
I still hold to the opinion the Cubs are going to stand pat through this off-season without any blockbuster moves.
So far, the team has not made a major roster move. They tendered pretty much everyone who was expected to be retained. One surprise was trading LaStella, but, again, LaStella was basically a pinch-hitter who occasionally played second or third base.
The Cubs did tender Addison Russell. It now appears they are more or less committed to his rehabilitation. This is pretty much confirmed by the various manipulations in picking up Torreyes, dumping him, then picking up Descalso. They are obviously looking for a utility infielder who can back up at shortstop until Russell comes off suspension. I suppose Descalso is as good an option as any. One guy I thought they might go after is Marwin Gonzalez, who is a kind of poor man's Ben Zobrist and has a history as a Cubs farmhand. I expect there it would involve too much of a commitment or too much money.
The last piece to fall is likely to be the acquisition of a solid left-handed reliever. I thought that might be Andrew Miller. Maybe it still is him.
All through the off-season, there have been rumblings about payroll and having to dump salary in order to make a big move or even a series of smaller moves that increase payroll. My own suspicion is the salary dump is Heyward and they just cannot get takers. Think about it. The Cubs have got virtually nothing in the way of consistent production from Heyward other than his defense and they are paying him big bucks. I'd sure like to see him traded. It opens up a lot of possibilities.
So far, the team has not made a major roster move. They tendered pretty much everyone who was expected to be retained. One surprise was trading LaStella, but, again, LaStella was basically a pinch-hitter who occasionally played second or third base.
The Cubs did tender Addison Russell. It now appears they are more or less committed to his rehabilitation. This is pretty much confirmed by the various manipulations in picking up Torreyes, dumping him, then picking up Descalso. They are obviously looking for a utility infielder who can back up at shortstop until Russell comes off suspension. I suppose Descalso is as good an option as any. One guy I thought they might go after is Marwin Gonzalez, who is a kind of poor man's Ben Zobrist and has a history as a Cubs farmhand. I expect there it would involve too much of a commitment or too much money.
The last piece to fall is likely to be the acquisition of a solid left-handed reliever. I thought that might be Andrew Miller. Maybe it still is him.
All through the off-season, there have been rumblings about payroll and having to dump salary in order to make a big move or even a series of smaller moves that increase payroll. My own suspicion is the salary dump is Heyward and they just cannot get takers. Think about it. The Cubs have got virtually nothing in the way of consistent production from Heyward other than his defense and they are paying him big bucks. I'd sure like to see him traded. It opens up a lot of possibilities.
Monday, November 5, 2018
Post Season Developments
The Cubs more or less did the expected with their free agents. Notably, they exercised their options on Strop and Hamels. They declined their option on Kintzler, though, by some sort of odd contract arrangement, he got to stay on anyway by exercising his player option at half-price. I rather think the Cubs will decide to eat a sizable portion of that money just to get rid of him in a trade.
In the Hamels deal, they decided to unload Smyly to the Rangers. In a way, this was a clever trick on the Cubs part, as they managed to recover most of the cash they would have obtained from the Rangers had they bought out Hamels contract. Smyly was never going to fit into an already crowded rotation had the Cubs held on. He will help Texas if he is fully recovered.
Among other developments, it is reported the Cubs are not inclined to extend Joe Maddon in the off-season, though they have not closed the door on a renewal at the close of the 2019 season. You wonder whether Epstein's comments about evaluating performance as opposed to promise applied as well to Maddon. Maddon has been quite successful in his stint with the Cubs, losing twice in the NLCS and winning a championship. 2018, though, was a letdown, however, of major proportions. Personally, I am OK with Maddon, though his in-game management and bullpen decisions have cost the team wins and his relentless self-promotion is wearing a bit thin.
Another sphinx-like Epstein statement is also taking shape with respect to Addison Russell as it now appears they are having second thoughts about just dumping the guy if they ever had first thoughts on the matter. The Cubs, and most major league franchises, have never had a lot of qualms about employing bad actors and off the field jerks in general. With respect to the Cubs in the Epstein era, witness Chapman and Murphy, as well as their hushing up whatever bad things Castro was up to while with the team,
I've always liked Russell as a player, though it seems he has turned out to be a jerk off the field. Look for the Cubs to offer him a contract laden with rehabilitation incentives and promises on his part to reform.
In the Hamels deal, they decided to unload Smyly to the Rangers. In a way, this was a clever trick on the Cubs part, as they managed to recover most of the cash they would have obtained from the Rangers had they bought out Hamels contract. Smyly was never going to fit into an already crowded rotation had the Cubs held on. He will help Texas if he is fully recovered.
Among other developments, it is reported the Cubs are not inclined to extend Joe Maddon in the off-season, though they have not closed the door on a renewal at the close of the 2019 season. You wonder whether Epstein's comments about evaluating performance as opposed to promise applied as well to Maddon. Maddon has been quite successful in his stint with the Cubs, losing twice in the NLCS and winning a championship. 2018, though, was a letdown, however, of major proportions. Personally, I am OK with Maddon, though his in-game management and bullpen decisions have cost the team wins and his relentless self-promotion is wearing a bit thin.
Another sphinx-like Epstein statement is also taking shape with respect to Addison Russell as it now appears they are having second thoughts about just dumping the guy if they ever had first thoughts on the matter. The Cubs, and most major league franchises, have never had a lot of qualms about employing bad actors and off the field jerks in general. With respect to the Cubs in the Epstein era, witness Chapman and Murphy, as well as their hushing up whatever bad things Castro was up to while with the team,
I've always liked Russell as a player, though it seems he has turned out to be a jerk off the field. Look for the Cubs to offer him a contract laden with rehabilitation incentives and promises on his part to reform.
Monday, October 29, 2018
Free Agents and Options
The Cubs should be pretty busy this week evaluating their current free agents and players with options. They have until Friday to make decisions. Most of them are rather obvious.
As to the team options, those eligible are Hamels, Strop, and Kintzler. The Cubs should jump at getting Hamels even though he will cost $20MM. Similarly, Strop is an obvious choice as well even at $6.5MM. Kintzler was a total bust and a rather obvious thumbs down at $10MM.
Free agents might be a little trickier, but I guess fairly predictable as well. The pitchers are Chavez, De La Rosa, Wilson, and Garcia. Look for the Cubs to try to retain Chavez for sure and probably De La Rosa. Look for them to pass on Wilson and more than likely Garcia.
Position players are Murphy and Bobby Wilson, a journeyman catcher who cannot hit at all and actually never got into a game for the Cubs. Wilson is likely gone.
There have been rumblings about the Cubs taking a shot at keeping Murphy. I kind of doubt it and I also think it is a bad move. The Cubs expected Murphy to be a game-changer offensively when they picked him up in the midst of a general batting slump. However, after a brief stretch of success when he first arrived, he did not provide the kind of kick-start they needed. He achieved a 0.2 WAR and pretty ordinary stats down the stretch. Moreover, he was and is a defensive liability.
There's a lot of uncertainty about Russell's future with the team and whether the Cubs are willing to invest in some sort of rehabilitation project, but there are plenty of infield options on the current roster to carry the team through Russell's suspension period and beyond if necessary, viz., Zobrist, Bote, and LaStella. I rather believe that Murphy's future is as a DH or maybe a stopgap first baseman someplace.
Much as the sportswriters want to whip up enthusiasm on the Machado front, I cannot see the Cubs showing other than a perfunctory interest. If the Cubs go for anyone as a priority in free agency, it will be an impact left-handed reliever.
Congratulations to the Red Sox, far and away the best team in 2018 and worthy champions.
As to the team options, those eligible are Hamels, Strop, and Kintzler. The Cubs should jump at getting Hamels even though he will cost $20MM. Similarly, Strop is an obvious choice as well even at $6.5MM. Kintzler was a total bust and a rather obvious thumbs down at $10MM.
Free agents might be a little trickier, but I guess fairly predictable as well. The pitchers are Chavez, De La Rosa, Wilson, and Garcia. Look for the Cubs to try to retain Chavez for sure and probably De La Rosa. Look for them to pass on Wilson and more than likely Garcia.
Position players are Murphy and Bobby Wilson, a journeyman catcher who cannot hit at all and actually never got into a game for the Cubs. Wilson is likely gone.
There have been rumblings about the Cubs taking a shot at keeping Murphy. I kind of doubt it and I also think it is a bad move. The Cubs expected Murphy to be a game-changer offensively when they picked him up in the midst of a general batting slump. However, after a brief stretch of success when he first arrived, he did not provide the kind of kick-start they needed. He achieved a 0.2 WAR and pretty ordinary stats down the stretch. Moreover, he was and is a defensive liability.
There's a lot of uncertainty about Russell's future with the team and whether the Cubs are willing to invest in some sort of rehabilitation project, but there are plenty of infield options on the current roster to carry the team through Russell's suspension period and beyond if necessary, viz., Zobrist, Bote, and LaStella. I rather believe that Murphy's future is as a DH or maybe a stopgap first baseman someplace.
Much as the sportswriters want to whip up enthusiasm on the Machado front, I cannot see the Cubs showing other than a perfunctory interest. If the Cubs go for anyone as a priority in free agency, it will be an impact left-handed reliever.
Congratulations to the Red Sox, far and away the best team in 2018 and worthy champions.
Monday, October 22, 2018
Cubs Speculation
Now the Cubs season has ended, mad speculation begins on what the team will do in the off-season to improve. Bear in mind, the Cubs, woeful as their second half turned out, especially in September, won 95 games. Mediocre as their performance was in the second half, they were still 40-30 after the break.
Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado. I'm not so sure. For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop. Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them. Machado is a much better third baseman. The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base. This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant. So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do. Witness his performance so far in the playoffs. OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.
Harper may be a different story. Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot. I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short. First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him. Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.
The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown. The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs. Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four. They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.
The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season. They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so. Wilson is gone for sure. Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents. They ought to sign Chavez. Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.
I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop.
As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.
Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado. I'm not so sure. For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop. Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them. Machado is a much better third baseman. The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base. This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant. So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do. Witness his performance so far in the playoffs. OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.
Harper may be a different story. Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot. I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short. First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him. Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.
The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown. The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs. Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four. They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.
The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season. They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so. Wilson is gone for sure. Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents. They ought to sign Chavez. Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.
I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop.
As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
NLCS
I was happy to see the Brewers eliminated by the Dodgers. I confess to a particular disdain for the Milwaukee club, but, honestly, I don't see how they were able to win 96 games with that roster. I mean, besides Cain and Yelich and Aquilar, they have a bunch of aging veterans, most of whom they picked up at the trade deadline and several platoon players. Worst of all, they have no starting pitchers worth the name. In the entire series, a seven game series, their starters pitched something like 20 innings.
Of course, they have a great bullpen, and I suppose you have to credit Counsel full marks for getting as far as he did with this team. However, Counsel did come a cropper in the NLCS, doing his best to channel his inner Joe Maddon on steroids in the process. You can only go so far when you routinely go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning. Sooner or later, they are going to run out of gas.
I expect Boston to make short work of LA in the World Series. I really thought the ALCS would go longer, as Houston is a quality team, but the fact that the Red Sox eliminated them in five games, three on the road, speaks volumes about their approach and talent.
Of course, they have a great bullpen, and I suppose you have to credit Counsel full marks for getting as far as he did with this team. However, Counsel did come a cropper in the NLCS, doing his best to channel his inner Joe Maddon on steroids in the process. You can only go so far when you routinely go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning. Sooner or later, they are going to run out of gas.
I expect Boston to make short work of LA in the World Series. I really thought the ALCS would go longer, as Houston is a quality team, but the fact that the Red Sox eliminated them in five games, three on the road, speaks volumes about their approach and talent.
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Playoffs
Geez. Watching the Dodgers is like watching the Cubs. Thirty strikeouts in two games. Two runs in 22 innings. At least they won. I've been rooting for them to beat the Brewers anyway, mostly because I cannot stand the Brewers and also because one can never root for a red state team in the playoffs.
For those fans who yearn for the Cubs to pursue Machado in free agency, it may pay to watch him closely during the post-season. Machado is a good hitter to be sure. So far he reminds me a lot of Baez, which, of course is good and bad. The real deal is that he seems to be a head case. He has so far tried to maim Brewers middle infielders on two occasions as well as going out of his way to kick the Brewers first baseman in he ankle on a close play at first base. Also, on the winning hit moments ago, it looked like he paused for a bit before running hard to home plate. He made it, but you have to wonder. Two outs, solid hit, you're on second base. You run like crazy, don't you?
As to the AL series, I like the Red Sox. both because of the red state/blue state formula, but also because I rather think they are the best team right now. The Astros are good, though. Either one is likely to be the champion.
For those fans who yearn for the Cubs to pursue Machado in free agency, it may pay to watch him closely during the post-season. Machado is a good hitter to be sure. So far he reminds me a lot of Baez, which, of course is good and bad. The real deal is that he seems to be a head case. He has so far tried to maim Brewers middle infielders on two occasions as well as going out of his way to kick the Brewers first baseman in he ankle on a close play at first base. Also, on the winning hit moments ago, it looked like he paused for a bit before running hard to home plate. He made it, but you have to wonder. Two outs, solid hit, you're on second base. You run like crazy, don't you?
As to the AL series, I like the Red Sox. both because of the red state/blue state formula, but also because I rather think they are the best team right now. The Astros are good, though. Either one is likely to be the champion.
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