Sunday, May 30, 2010

Yet Another Stinker

OK, the Cubs were hopeless against the two Cardinals aces, and most teams would lose or figure to lose those games maybe three out of four. Good teams, though, occasionally take advantage of opportunities, which the Cubs absolutely did not in the two games they lost to the Cards. Neither did their opponents put up much of a fight against the Cubs top starter. So are they overmatched? I don't think you can say that yet, but you cannot keep trotting out this sorry lineup day after day and expect to succeed against good teams or good pitchers.

Piniella has indicated he will shake up the lineup tomorrow against the Pirates, adding Fontenot and Colvin. If he actually delivers, they may have a shot. They play the next nine games on the road against three of the worst teams in the league, so you would expect at least a 6-3 trip. We'll see.

Incidentally, not that it mattered to the outcome, but how bad does a guy have to pitch consistently to earn a trip out of town? I'm talking about Grabow here. Maybe he is hurt, but he definitely stinks.

Silva Superb

The biggest surprise of the season thus far has been Carlos Silva. Based on his previous performance, even when he was good, it cannot last, but he threw a gem on Saturday, thus insuring that he remains in the rotation. You cannot really argue with 7-0.

The Cubs played a good game yesterday. Once more the left-handed hitters played a key role, Fontenot with two triples and Fukudome with some patient and productive ABs. Based on this performance, of course, Fontenot must sit and so must Colvin, so we've got the all right-handed lineup out there minus Nady. This does not bode well against a tough pitcher like Wainwright.

The Cubs have sent Gorzelanny to the pen, a move that is hard to argue with. They intend to call up Cashner on Monday, their best pitching prospect. I've got mixed feelings about this, as they were developing him to be a starting pitcher. This leaves the Cubs with something of a dilemma in terms of a roster move. Adding a lefty to the pen probably means subtracting one, but Russell has pitched very well. Logically, Grabow should go. To do so, though, probably means trading him (unlikely, who wants him?) or inventing an injury. You could also just release the useless "Home Run" Howry outright.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

A Bad Start

Wells couldn't record an out and this was a bad start both for Wells and for an important series. In the bottom of the first, both Fukudome and Theriot reached on hits, but Lee taking a called third strike on an apparent botched hit-and-run sank any chances the Cubs might have had to get back into it.

Here's a link to a good Sports Illustrated article about the Cubs, which is highly recommended not merely because the writer pretty much agrees with everything I have been saying about this team for months. He also thinks Silva to the bullpen is the move and I agree, though I know with this team it will never happen.

Colvin continues to impress. Soriano and Bryd should sit every third day - really every other day - to give this kid a chance to play regularly. This is another thing that is unlikely to occur because Jim Hendry, who has literally no idea or projection of what his young players can do, went out and gave a three year deal to the journeyman Byrd. Now Byrd got off to a great start, but like most guys who have been around the league for as long as he has, he is coming back to earth, which is .270-.280, 15-20 HRs, not embarrassing defense or base running.

The potential of a player like Colvin is so much more and it is magnified by the fact that he is a left-handed hitter on a team that is ineffective at scoring runs just because they are not just too right-handed but too same style, same tendencies right-handed in the middle of their lineup. Yesterday's game was a case in point. Even though they were down five runs against a good pitcher, they had their chances, but they ran into the same problems in the middle of the lineup with Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, and Byrd having bad games.

This is a big series against an overrated Cardinals team. The Cubs need to win the next two to think of themselves as being serious contenders.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Another Day, Another Weird Lineup

Lou was interviewed the other day and started pondering a variety of lineup and batting order switches that seemed to make a little sense, but maybe this morning he woke up and forgot that the Dodgers pitcher was right-handed. He had the all right-handed lineup back out there for some reason with the exception of Fukudome, who batted fifth. Theriot batted first, of course. He has about a .260 OBA for May with one base-on-balls and has not taken a pitch in several weeks. A weak tapper to 2B got this one off to a rousing start.

Too bad the Dodgers decided to rest Ramirez today, as Johnson robbed the Cubs of several hits. Also Castro hit the ball hard twice to no avail. Quite a pitchers' duel. The Cubs missed a great chance in the 7th when Lee led off with a walk, but was caught stealing when Byrd missed the hit-and-run sign. Didn't matter much because Byrd, who is still in a slump, hit a double play grounder anyway, and after Fukudome delivered a solid hit, Nady lined out hard to Johnson in left field.

Some oddities in the 8th inning. Lilly, who was pitching very well, was removed after only 85 pitches. Baker never moved on a ground ball that may or may not have been playable and then took himself out of the game. Ironically, the removal of Baker turned out well for the Cubs, as it forced Lou to use Fontenot as a replacement. Lou will almost never pinch hit for Baker, but in this case the forced switch payed off as Fontenot came through with a triple and the other guy who should have been in the lineup from the beginning, Tyler Colvin, followed with a run-scoring double, bringing in the only run of the game.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

A Really Sloppy Game

This had to be one of the worst played gamed I've ever seen. Gorzelanny pitched badly from the start and the Cubs seemed determined to mess up even the most basic plays. In this quest, they faced some stiff competition from the Dodgers. Rafael Furcal continued to play SS with a cement glove, and in Manny Ramirez, I sincerely believe the Dodgers have found a LF to rival and surpass Alfonso Soriano in sheer incompetence, not to mention a level of indifference that exceeds by far the Cubs' star.

The Cubs continued their free-swinging ways against Billingsley, who didn't look a lot better than Gorzelanny most of the time, but who managed to wiggle out of jam after jam. The Cubs were totally over-matched by the Dodger bullpen in the late innings. And the other thing to note is that the Cubs have left tons of guys on base in this series and have scored most of their runs as a result of atrocious Dodger fielding gaffes. They are lucky to have a shot at winning the series tomorrow afternoon. Anyway, this was a forgettable game. If Gorzelanny was making a case for staying in the rotation, it was not a strong one.

There is a rather lively debate going on about who should go to the bullpen when Zambrano moves back into the rotation. Some have even suggested the Cubs retain a six-man rotation, and the argument is not a bad one. However, Cubs management lacks imagination and even trying to figure out how to make this work seems beyond their ken, so this is likely a lost cause to begin with. I would definitely eliminate the idea of moving Lilly or Dempster into relief. Dempster was pretty much of a flop as a closer and Lilly doesn't look like the kind of guy who could make the transition either.

That leaves Silva or Gorzelanny and either might be successful. Gorzelanny is a lefty, which makes him an ill fit in a bullpen already dominated by lefties. Silva has pitched successfully in relief early in his career, he starts out strong and he throws strikes. Logically, he is the right guy to have moved in the first place, but he is 6-0 and moving him to late inning relief just does not seem like the sort of thing the Cubs would ever consider.

Of course, a trade is definitely a possibility. It appears no serious talks have taken place involving Gorzelanny. If the Cubs think the lack of a knockout 8th inning right-handed reliever is all that holds them back from playoff contention, it might be worth a shot. He is basically, like Silva, a career .500 pitcher. However, he is young and has a substantial upside, so dealing him would have to bring back a guy like Heath Bell or the equivalent talent to make it worthwhile. Realistically, Zambrano, Dempster, and Silva are not, either because of performance or no-trade clauses or salary considerations, guys who are marketable commodities.

That leaves Lilly. He is a talented pitcher, but he is in his free-agent year and would very likely not be signed by the Cubs next year anyway because of his age and the fact the Cubs are pitching-rich in the minor league system. I would not be surprised if the Cubs dangled Lilly sometime this year to see what they could get. Even though he is a potential free agent, they'd have to get more than a bullpen arm to make it worth their while. I don't think this dilemma is necessarily a bad thing either, especially if you agree with me that relief pitchers are relief pitchers, with the exception of outstanding closers, because they are not good enough or consistent enough to be starters. Provided a guy is suitable in style and temperament to make the transition, having a pitcher who could start in the bullpen is a plus for any team. Witness the success of Sean Marshall for example.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

A Good Win

But, you know, I still hate this right-handed lineup, which is almost designed not to produce runs or even the situations in which runs might be produced. Tonight they faced a tough lefty who only lost because of really sloppy defense by Furcal in particular.

It was nice to see Lee come up with two key hits, though. Maybe he is finally coming around. He has always been a slow starter. And good teams do take advantage of bad defensive play. Dempster was really dominant this evening and earned a well-deserved win with an equally dominant save by Carlos Marmol.

Things are looking up for the Cubs despite their obvious deficiencies, mainly due to their superior pitching. They are 7-2 in the latest stretch, which has to make you think they may at least be an entertaining team this summer. But every game is a nail-biter these days, as was this one until the 9th inning when Lee's home run iced it.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Two Squeakers

The Cubs played pretty well Saturday night and managed to pull out a scrappy 5-4 win in 10 innings. I still hate that all right-handed lineup and really all it produced against the lefty is home runs by Soriano and Castro. Lee, despite the hit in the tenth - rather a cheap hit - is not producing at all and no team is going to consistently score runs when their third hitter is that bad, not to mention four and five. Byrd is now in a bit of a slump and Ramirez is just unaccountably bad.

Anyway, once they got the lefty out and into the Rangers' bullpen, good things happened when Colvin, Fukudome, and Fontenot got to hit against a right-handed submariner. Lou finally got to use his optimal pitching rotation of a solid starter (in this case Wells), Marshall, and Marmol.

Sunday's lineup was even stranger than Saturday's. I don't like using a catcher as a DH for one thing. What if your starting catcher gets hurt; you end up losing the DH. Actually, they did wind up losing the DH when Fukudome hit for Soto in the 9th, but by then it did not matter.

However, the Cubs did get off to a good start with a couple of scratch hits, good base-running by the Cubs matched to sloppy defense by the Rangers, and a long ball by Soriano who is getting into another hot streak.

Silva will keep you in the game, although sometimes you wonder if he is fooling anyone or he is just on a lucky roll. Today he did not have his best but he did scratch out 5+ innings. This, however, presented a problem for old Lou in that he felt he had to use Grabow and then Howry to get to the reliable part of his bullpen. As usual, they failed for the most part to add on to the lead, and they dodged a real bullet with these two sorry excuses for major league pitchers. Marshall put out the fire in the 7th and got the game to the closer Marmol. These two guys' arms are going to fall off before the All-Star Game if things don't turn around soon.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Another Bad Game

Actually, I wrote this Friday night, but as I was traveling and had an unreliable Internet connection, it did not post, so here it is now. I will blog Saturday night's win and Sunday's game tomorrow.


Again a good pitching performance, some questionable defense, and no hitting, and not clutch hitting for sure. Some questions for the Cubs management:


Who in their right mind would sign Bob Howry after his wretched performance for the Diamondbacks this spring? And why sign a guy to pitch the 5th or 6th inning when you never need anybody for these innings because the Cubs starters, the only competent players on this team, routinely pitch into the 7th and 8th? In any case, if you need a pitcher in the 5th or 6th, the game is probably out of reach, so Berg or Gray can handle that just as well.


The Cubs face a right-handed pitcher in Texas, but Tyler Colvin is not in left field. No, Alfonso Soriano is there, even though he is a natural DH. He proves this by botching a fly ball in the eighth inning. Colvin demonstrates he should have been in the lineup by smashing a double in the 9th. Worse yet, Nady is the DH. I’m sure there are reasons for these erratic decisions, but who can tell?


Why is Tracy at AAA and Jeff Baker in the major leagues?


Is Aramis Ramirez hurt? He hasn’t played since Wednesday night except for a pinch-hit strikeout Thursday afternoon. Apparently, he has a sore left thumb. If he is really hurt, see the question above, because Mike Fontenot, though a good infielder, is not a very good third baseman.


If Carlos Zambrano is moving back to the starting rotation, how come he keeps getting called on in relief?


Anyway, you just keep wondering how badly this team can perform. Two lefties coming up to pitch the remainder of the series in Texas. This is trouble for the boys in blue.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

A Very Revealing Loss

The loss to the Phillies on Thursday afternoon says a lot about the character of the 2010 Cubs and even more about the deficiencies of their manager. First, as to the team, they continue to battle and to play close games. However, they also continue to fail to score in situations where you just cannot fail to score. Witness the ninth inning when Castro and Ramirez struck out with runners at the corners and Soto popped up on the first pitch. Something happens to these guys when the chips are down. Castro is a young player and maybe Contreras outsmarted him, but Ramirez swung at a pitch that was a good two feet outside.

As to the manager, I just keep wondering what is going on in his head. In the seventh inning, he was just weirdly out-managed, using Nady to pinch hit when he had to use Soto anyway to come in and catch the next inning. Of course, the Cubs are short a left-handed bat, namely Tracy, who for some reason is playing for Iowa while Baker continues to warm the bench in the major leagues.

They say that managers do not win games, but that they frequently lose them. Lou loses a lot of games. I'm not sure what the problem is, but Piniella has five starters who routinely give him six or seven innings, meaning he has at most maybe ten innings to fill with the remaining seven pitchers over the course of any five game cycle. Marmol and Marshall can be counted on to fill five of these, leaving five innings to fill with the remaining pitchers. Now granted that Zambrano is ill-suited to relief and that Guzman and Caridad have been hurt, but why is it this simple manipulation cannot be accomplished by the Cubs brain trust and that they consistently have the wrong guys in in the wrong innings unless they have a lead after seven and can simply go to Marshall and Marmol?

In this loss, Piniella had evidently decided that Marmol needed a day off (fine) and that Marshall would be his closer (not so fine). In the eighth inning, Stevens got the first out, bringing up a succession of left-handed or switch-hitters, all the best Phillies hitters in fact. You would suppose that this would be the most challenging inning and you would want, if you were going to go with the percentages, to bring in your best left-handed reliever. But no, Grabow, who has an absolute aversion to throwing strikes under most circumstances and who almost succeeded in blowing the game the previous night, is summoned. And that, fans, is the ball game. Marshall finishes the afternoon warming up while the winning run comes home.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

A NiceWinning Streak

Four in a row and one against a left-hander. Will wonders never cease. Seriously, it is good to see them string together some victories for a change, mostly as a result of some fine pitching performances. One hopes the injury to Gorzelanny is not serious.

It is also good to see the Cubs are moving Zambrano back into the rotation. Their explanation for having moved him out in the first place seems to be that they wanted him to regain speed on his fastball. Of course, at the time, they said it was so that he could become the lights-out 8th inning power arm they needed. So, like most other pronouncements that come from the front office, this one makes no sense.

Despite the winning streak, we have been allowed to continue to observe some remarkable moves by the Lou and Jim tandem. Wednesday night, we saw Piniella put on his thinking cap to summon John Grabow in a vain effort to blow a lead after the Gorzelanny injury. Grabow fell just short in his effort, allowing a run to the Phillies before Zambrano and Castro saved the day. We also saw Jeff Baker in the lineup in RF, a needless risk when you have a bunch of qualified outfielders on the bench.

The topper in the news department is that Hendry is thinking about signing "Home Run" Howry for another stint in the bullpen. Come on, I sure hope this isn't true. I mean, this guy was released by the Diamondbacks, who have the worst bullpen in the major leagues.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Nice to See Nady Come Through

Though, to be completely honest, this was a sloppily played game on both sides and the Cubs made heavy weather of finally defeating a vastly inferior team for the first time all year. The runs Lilly gave up early were all tainted by some awful defensive play by Ramirez and Soriano. With Soriano in the lineup, there is often an almost equal trade-off, the runs he produces are frequently offset by the runs he allows.

The Cubs came through when it counted, though, to be honest, their runs were similarly tainted by poor defensive play from the Pirates. Soriano's early double was a long misplayed fly ball. And you've got to wonder why they weren't running wild on Paulino all weekend. I mean, this guy can't catch anything. However, I don't intend to be mean-spirited. For a change, the Cubs took advantage of mistakes. Good teams do it all the time.

As an aside, the real turning-point of the game was the defense that Fukudome played in the late innings, especially the catch he made in the 7th inning. For some reason, lots of fans and lots of sports-show guys don't like him, but when he is on his game, he is a pleasure to watch both at the plate and in the field. His head is always in the game even when he is over-matched, and he is, in my opinion, the best defensive RF in the NL.

Umm... Look...

Umm. I mean, we've tried everything, haven't we? Of course we have. I mean, we've played every combination of the all right-handed lineup against lefties and we never score runs and we never win. What to do? Well, in Lou's world, we trot out the same group of players and we lose again and then we get huffy when somebody says we might have put Colvin into the lineup instead of Nady, but we were really happy for Nady to play two days in a row and raise his average over .180 for the first time this season. In fact, we get so huffy about it that we decide not to play Colvin on Sunday either.

One of the small pleasures of watching the Cubs is to see good players come up and play before they have had a chance to catch Cubitis. So it is nice to see Castro actually play baseball and take pitches and so on. In the ninth inning yesterday, he did do just that to get on base. Fukudome followed with a textbook AB, in which, after being completely fooled by Dotel's first pitch, he expertly worked the count until he finally got a pitch he could pull and delivered a triple against a Pirate defense that had radically over-shifted against him.

But then the game was over. Theriot and Byrd promptly struck out in overly aggressive ABs. Theriot's effort was particularly awful. He struck out on a ball over his head when all he had to do was hit the ball to the right side to tie the game. After the game, Piniella waxed philosophical about how your modern players don't shorten up in those situations, but hey, what can you do?

Well, I guess fans have a right to expect that players play intelligently and that managers make sure that they do. Good teams play that way and that is one of the reasons they win.

Friday, May 14, 2010

An Embarrassment

Well, the game was an embarrassment for sure, and losing again to the Pirates (4 straight now), a team that had scored only one run while being swept by Cincinnati in the series immediately prior to this one was embarrassing to say the least. But the real embarrassment is the commentary and behavior of the Cubs brain trust of Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry.

Earlier this week, Hendry was widely quoted as saying there wasn't anything wrong with the makeup of the team that required a serious solution immediately (wrong) and that the eighth inning relief problem was not the reason they were losing (right). Of course, Lou promptly trotted out the usual lame post-game baloney. Frankly, the press should just sit there and stare at Piniella when he comes out for the post-game charade, that or simply read off what they think he will say, something everyone has memorized by now anyway. "What can you say, I can't explain it. Gee whiz, I'm trying. You make out the lineup card if you know so much."

Today he offered the truly staggering piece of reasoning that even though Zambrano blew the game in the eighth inning and even though he has struggled in most of his relief appearances, he is the only alternative he has in those situations and so he would continue to use him until he succeeded, at which point Lou implied he would move back to the rotation. At least that is what the words he used actually meant. Whether he had any comprehension that that was what he was saying is anyone's guess. Wow! I mean even for Piniella, that's quite a leap of logic.

What is becoming increasingly clear is that there is a substantial lack of consensus between Hendry and Piniella on the strengths and weaknesses of the team and on how to deploy the players on it. Piniella evidently believes that he needs a right-handed power arm in the bullpen and he is going to sulk and gripe and grumble until he gets Hendry to trade for one. Hendry seems equally convinced that he is not willing to part with a significant player to acquire one and that anyway nobody answering that description is available. What it seems to boil down to in my mind is the inevitable conflict between a GM who has or thinks he has a future with the organization and a manager who knows he doesn't. The fans are the losers here. They deserve to see a competitive team every day and this team just seems to have quit trying.

So in a way, the Zambrano fiasco captures what I am saying in a capsule form. I - and I might add most of the commentators who know anything about baseball - realized from the beginning that this experiment had little chance for success. He is just not suited to be a relief pitcher. The Cubs, after they signed him, tried to make him a closer in waiting. When he came up in 2002, he was used in relief and he was pretty awful. To Dusty Baker's credit, or his pitching coach's, the organization moved him into a starting role and he was really good. Despite his problems the last couple of seasons, he is still a good starting pitcher, and potentially a really good one. But starters moving into relief, especially late inning relief, have to make real adjustments to their style and sometimes, more often than not, they cannot do so successfully and furthermore they have no incentive to do so. All this is going to do is possibly destroy his confidence altogether and certainly diminish whatever trade value he might have should he become so disgusted with the franchise that he waives his no-trade clause.

Well, tomorrow is another day and the Pirates are throwing another lefty and that means Piniella will be trotting out the righties of doom again. Hey, they scored six runs, didn't they? And who better to bat cleanup than Xavier Nady? He blasted a can of corn sac fly on Friday. And he is hitting .174 and .111 in the last month and .156 against left-handers. This guy is a keeper.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

A Hard-Earned Win

Piniella managed this game as if it were the seventh game of the World Series, and maybe, from his point-of-view, it was. A good performance from Silva, good relief work, and several timely hits, did the trick.

Some positive signs. Lee seems to be coming around. Piniella has moved Fukudome to the leadoff spot, which is where he belongs and will hopefully stay. He has also at least tried to break up the righties of doom procession that has contributed to so many losses, notably by moving Soto up in the lineup and sitting Ramirez for a day. Of course, Friday the Cubs face a lefty, so we may well see its return.

A couple of modest suggestions to consider for the Cubs. Get away from the five man outfield rotation. It just doesn't work. Stick with a four man shuffle with Nady the odd man out. Also, just because they are so right-handed, don't be afraid to let a left-handed outfielder start against a lefty. It changes the pitcher's perspective, and, anyway, how bad could it be when the alternative, Nady, is batting below the Mendoza line. And again because they are so right-handed, think about starting Fontenot at 2B maybe 40% of the time. He's as good a glove man as Theriot and he is having a good year at the plate. Finally, and on the same theme, what is Jeff Baker doing on this roster and why isn't Tracy in the majors instead? Tracy can play 3B and 1B well and if you are going to rest Lee or Ramirez occasionally, you are going to do so against a right-hander.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Have I Just Watched the Same Game

for the last week or so or what? It sure seems that way. Seven losses in eight games, all scoring fewer than three runs. Of course, old Lou says that sooner or later these guys are going to start to hit. Of course, sooner or later, many of the guys who are hitting way over their career averages, like, for example, Marlon Byrd, are going to stop hitting and then we'll be complaining about them not carrying their weight.

It just seems to me that this team has a lot of bad habits and virtually no discipline or concentration. For example, in the eighth inning when Fukudome coaxes a walk and Theriot hits the ball the right to set up a rally, you have a struggling reliever who is having control problems, so, of course, Byrd swings at the first pitch and hits a routine fly to right. OK, they score a run, but now there are two outs and you have the clutch twins Lee and Ramirez ready back to back to kill the rally. Lee unaccountably hits the ball hard to left for a double, but don't worry, Ramirez comes through with a clutch strikeout to save the day.

Now I don't pretend that this is a great team or that changes are unnecessary, but to play with such a lack of concentration day in and day out means there must be something wrong in the clubhouse. Last year, they fired the hitting coach. A cowardly move, for sure. Justly or unjustly, somebody gets fired, and, in this case, it has to be Piniella.

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Two Notable Lessons

Good things happen when Soriano sits and Colvin plays. And it's not just that Colvin gives you good ABs and key hits. He also breaks up the inevitable chain of identical RH hitters who try to pull every single pitch no matter where it is thrown. I'm willing to make an exception of Byrd here because he will often hit the ball hard the other way. This team is too right-handed now and even if and when Lee and Ramirez come around this will still be the case. So even if by some miracle they can contend for the Division or Wild Card, they will still lose right away in the playoffs.

The second lesson is that bad things happen when Lou starts thinking. He has Marshall ready to face Votto. Dempster is getting hit hard. The Cubs are ahead 3-2. Dempster says he's OK. One pitch, one swing, game over. I have to say that watching the games on TV is always interesting for Brenly's comments. He definitely called that one before it happened.

So the Cubs go 1-5 on the road trip against two of the worst teams in baseball. 8-8 in a 16 game stretch against the five worst pitching staffs in the majors. Now that is underachieving!

Another Disaster

I'm beginning to regret the idea of trying to blog every game. This one, like so many of the other losses, showcases the strengths and deficiencies of what is beginning to look like the typical so-called underachieving team.

Last night they rode a solid start by Tom Gorzelanny into the seventh inning of a perfectly winnable game. Then came total meltdown. Caridad's return to the bullpen was ruined by two errors, one on a hard-hit but routine ball to Castro and the second on a slow routine ground-ball to Fontenot. (I'd like to know what Lee was doing running half-way to second base and shielding Fontenot on that play). I guess I have no real quarrel with going to Marshall in that situation, but you do have to question pulling him after the walk.

Then came the moment I personally have been dreading since the ill-advised move of Zambrano to the bullpen. This is just exactly the wrong spot to call on Zambrano. He is not Marmol from 2008. The results were inevitable. He struck out the first guy, but then Gomes got a single on what looked like a good pitch that for once in his life the batter didn't try to pull.

I've said before that weird things happen when Zambrano pitches. I think there are at least two reasons for this. One is the tension level is very high and the team plays uptight. The second is that, ironically, his stuff is almost too good. It moves too much. So umpires often miss calls and when batters make contact, the ball does odd things. You see a lot of erratic dribblers and difficult infield chances and a lot of bloopers. Throw in a bad call at home plate and that's just what put the game out of reach last night and just why moving Zambrano to the pen was such a dumb and desperate move. Over the long haul, when he can establish his pitches, this kind of thing evens out, which is why Zambrano has been by and large a very successful starting pitcher.

Anyway, although the post-game analysis concentrated its attention on the bullpen meltdown, and Hendry is going to have to go out and get some kind of help there just so Lou will shut up about it, this isn't really why they are losing games like this. Good teams beat lousy pitchers and more often than not lose to dominant pitchers, but they find a way to beat decent enough pitchers like Harang, for example, even when they are on their game.

The reason the Cubs don't is that they have a lineup that is relatively easy to pitch to. Once you get past Theriot and Fukudome, even if you put one or both of them on base, you have essentially the same hitter two through six, an aggressive right-handed power hitter who is vulnerable to being pitched outside, which is just what Harang did all night. Ramirez used to be the exception, in that he had a lot of plate discipline and shortened up with two strikes, but this year he has been in a funk since day one.

You have to get down to the seventh and eighth spots before you get a little more discipline and hitting to right field. Ironically, the promotion of Castro, which I still regard as a sound move, makes the team even more right-handed, although it looks as if he does hit the ball where it is pitched. That's really why the Cubs are seemingly so inconsistent this year and why everybody is remarking on how it has been the bottom and top of the order that has been productive when they have won.

Breaking these tendencies is going to involve some creative thinking on management's part, something that has never been in evidence on the North Side in many years.

Friday, May 7, 2010

A Great Debut

Starlin Castro had a great debut, hitting a three-run homer in his first AB and adding a three-run triple later in the game to lead the Cubs to a 14-7 win over the Reds. Coming off a truly nauseating 11-1 loss to the Pirates the night before, all this was a welcome sight.

You have to wonder, though, whether the Cubs have any long-term plan or whether Piniella and Hendry are just winging it in a kind of desperation, knowing their jobs are on the line. Until tonight, the Cubs had two superior prospects, Colvin and Castro, who were not playing. Bringing up Castro is at least a solid clue the Cubs realize that the core of their team is just not good enough to contend or even to produce consistently. I'll have more to say on this subject in a more comprehensive post.

A couple of observations:

Lost in the hoopla of Castro's debut may be the fact that Carlos Silva's performances are getting shorter and shorter and rockier and rockier. Silva is returning to form. He has always been a .500 pitcher and pretty much a five or six inning guy. Guys his age don't generally show enormous improvement and they inevitably return to form. If the Cubs are showcasing him in order to dump his salary and move Zambrano back where he belongs, that's fine. Otherwise they are courting serious problems.

John Grabow continues to look awful. Is he hurt?

Marshall is dominant in relief. He is the eighth inning lefty they are looking for.

I can't figure why Tracy was sent down unless Baker is out of options and this is a temporary move. He hits left-handed, which is always more desirable off the bench and he can play first and third base. Lets face it, Baker has not hit well in his opportunities and he is likely to get almost no starts at 2B with Theriot and Fontenot, who are producing, getting virtually all the playing time there.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

You've Got to Wonder

The Cubs are towards the end of a stretch where they are matched against five of the six worst pitching teams in the NL for sixteen games. They started the stretch against the Brewers and fared nicely, sweeping the series and scoring 25 runs. Then they met the Nationals and proceeded to lose two of three at home and score only seven runs. Next came the Diamonbacks, whom they pasted in three of four, scoring 33 runs.

Now they have lost two straight to the Pirates, a really, really bad team with execrable pitching, scoring all of four runs in the process. They lost tonight to a pitcher who had lost his first five starts and compiled an ERA over 12. There is something really wrong with these numbers, and it is going to be a long season unless they can sort things out soon.

These are the teams you should hammer. OK, you can say they were 7-3 until the road trip and they were starting to come around, but you can also argue that they have really no consistency at all, that they should finish this stretch a minimum of 12-4 because that is what good teams do. No chance of that as they have already lost five.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Another Lefty, Another Loss

That's really all you need to know. All the runs came on home runs, for both teams. A bad defensive play by Theriot set up the winning run, but the loss was inevitable anyway. 12 runners left on base.

Now I don't know why the Cubs, who are a predominantly right-handed hitting team cannot generate runs against really pretty ordinary left-handers, but the facts are there. They just don't score and it's not just a phenomenon for this year. They never score against lefties. Who knows? Don't they ever take batting practice against lefties? Don't they have a pitching machine that simulates the spin of a left-hander? Again, who knows? I know a few years ago they made a big deal about getting someone to throw batting practice left-handed, but I can't remember if anything came of it. Their record surely did not improve.

One thing is for sure: that all right-handed lineup doesn't do it. Lou keeps trotting out the same tired alignment and they keep losing. I've noted before that just having a bunch of righties out there with no rhyme or reason makes little sense. The two major switches the Cubs make is the insertion of Jeff Baker for Mike Fontenot and Xavier Nady for Kosuke Fukudome. Baker's and Nady's career numbers against lefties are good on paper, but the game isn't played on paper. Each of them tonight wrecked innings where the Cubs had scoring chances, Baker leaving five runners on base in the process. Nady was unaccountably allowed to bat against a right-handed reliever in a key spot while Fukudome, Colvin, Tracy, and Fontenot were on the bench. Go figure.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Good Signs/Bad signs

With the wind blowing out again Friday and Saturday, the Cubs bats seem to be heating up, especially Soriano's who has hit two key homers late in the game. Lee and Ramirez still stink, though Lee did manage to win the game with a hard ground ball single to left. He still seems to be pulling off. And Ramirez evidently took some time to admire his only hard hit ball all week, so that he was thrown out at second on what should have been an easy double, costing the Cubs a run.

Two wins anyway and the bullpen has been able to hang on even though Marmol's save was an adventure to say the least.

Another bad sign, that stupid Toyota monstrosity that Ricketts keeps promoting in the increasingly petulant style that is going to start getting a little old with Cubs fans. So he remodeled the women's restroom and put up a bunch of garish banners. Already a little old for this one.