The Cubs played a good game for a change and beat Cincinnati 7-3 behind a dominating start from Jake Arrieta. I'd be remiss in not crediting Epstein and Hoyer for recognizing the potential of Arrieta and Travis Wood, as well as Rizzo, and trading real players for them.
The thing is, these guys were close to major league ready. There is a big difference between those deals, and even the Garza deal, and the sort of trades we are hearing about now involving Samardzija. From what I have read, the Toronto players being eyed by the Cubs are AA and high A prospects with the exception of the right-handed pitcher Sanchez who has flopped at AAA. That's a real problem and something that, for me, at least, tips the scale toward retaining Samardzija more or less whatever the cost.
Before last night, the Cubs turned in some pretty lackluster efforts to finish off the Pirates series and begin the one with the Reds. Once again, no hitting and some spotty bullpen work. I have observed before that the Cubs right-handed heavy lineup is just more effective that the left-handed platoon even against same-sided pitchers.
One reason, I suppose, is that the Cubs left-handed hitters with the exception of Rizzo, and sometimes Valbuena when he is hot, completely stink all the time. It's not that the replacements - Lake, Olt, Barney - are exactly tearing things up. Olt, especially, rarely even puts the ball in play. However, they do require some pitching to or at least some attention on the part of the opposing pitcher and they do provide superior defense. Who knows?
Another reason they seem to win with this setup is possibly that Renteria is freer with the bench or so-called bench when it is left-handed. This makes him a little more flexible with the bullpen. Last night, for example, he used four pitchers to get out of the eighth inning. Usually he just throws out someone and if he doesn't have it, there goes the ballgame as there is no one warming up.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Road Trip
The Cubs come home 5-5 on their most recent road trip. They played pretty well most of the time, winning the last two series after dropping three of four in Pittsburgh. If only they could play in the NL East all the time.
Valbuena and Castro have been hot lately, though it is really the pitching that is carrying the team. One of the upsides of losing Bonifacio to injury is that Renteria cannot find a spot for him to play. This puts Valbuena in the leadoff spot where he gets on base and Barney at second base more often than not where he stabilizes the defense. Of course, the downside is that Sweeney plays more often.
As far as the pitching goes, we are now in a situation where all the starters with the exception of Travis Wood are on the trade block. Weird, to say the least. Samardzija has apparently rejected an extension worth $85MM over five years. The Cubs need to up the ante a little and they can probably reach a settlement.
The idea of flipping Arietta, who seems to have come into his own, is really idiotic. I mean, they got this guy in exchange for Feldman with the idea he was younger and had a substantial upside.
As far as Hammel goes, I can see a case for flipping him. He is only signed for this season. He has had a career year so far. He is showing signs of coming back to his normal mid-level performance. Keeping him on a multi-year extension is probably not a justifiable move, especially given his history of injuries.
Jackson, however, is the real guy who needs to go, so if there is any market for this guy, the Cubs should jump at the chance.
The Cubs promoted Kris Bryant to AAA Iowa. He seems like the real deal for a change. It will be interesting to see what position he winds up playing. The Cubs have a ton of third base prospects in the system as well as Mike Olt who probably needs a stint in the minors to straighten himself out.
The problem there is that will give Iowa three third basemen, although Villanueva has, by and large, proved a disappointment in AAA. I think it is likely the Cubs will try to move Bryant to right field, especially if they think Olt has a future. It's not like he is a professional glove man at third, having made fourteen errors already in AA.
Valbuena and Castro have been hot lately, though it is really the pitching that is carrying the team. One of the upsides of losing Bonifacio to injury is that Renteria cannot find a spot for him to play. This puts Valbuena in the leadoff spot where he gets on base and Barney at second base more often than not where he stabilizes the defense. Of course, the downside is that Sweeney plays more often.
As far as the pitching goes, we are now in a situation where all the starters with the exception of Travis Wood are on the trade block. Weird, to say the least. Samardzija has apparently rejected an extension worth $85MM over five years. The Cubs need to up the ante a little and they can probably reach a settlement.
The idea of flipping Arietta, who seems to have come into his own, is really idiotic. I mean, they got this guy in exchange for Feldman with the idea he was younger and had a substantial upside.
As far as Hammel goes, I can see a case for flipping him. He is only signed for this season. He has had a career year so far. He is showing signs of coming back to his normal mid-level performance. Keeping him on a multi-year extension is probably not a justifiable move, especially given his history of injuries.
Jackson, however, is the real guy who needs to go, so if there is any market for this guy, the Cubs should jump at the chance.
The Cubs promoted Kris Bryant to AAA Iowa. He seems like the real deal for a change. It will be interesting to see what position he winds up playing. The Cubs have a ton of third base prospects in the system as well as Mike Olt who probably needs a stint in the minors to straighten himself out.
The problem there is that will give Iowa three third basemen, although Villanueva has, by and large, proved a disappointment in AAA. I think it is likely the Cubs will try to move Bryant to right field, especially if they think Olt has a future. It's not like he is a professional glove man at third, having made fourteen errors already in AA.
Monday, June 9, 2014
The Home Stand
The Cubs played pretty good baseball at home last week and came within two innings of sweeping the six games they played at Wrigley against the Mets and the Marlins. Unfortunately, whether it is because the A team relievers were unavailable or just a desire to change things up, Renteria let the normally reliable Schlitter and the somewhat inconsistent Strop blow a 2-0 lead, which allowed the Marlins to avoid the sweep. I still want to know how you can have seven pitchers in the bullpen but no one warming up when a guy you have brought in is obviously struggling to throw strikes.
Still 5-1 was not bad, mostly on the wave of solid pitching and some heroic hitting by Anthony Rizzo. Monday night was not so lucky an experience. I've always thought the Cubs matched up well against the Pirates, but Jackson rarely matches up well against anyone and usually does not put together two quality starts in succession.
I'm beginning to like JD more and more for his commentaries and subtle digs at Cubs strategy. Last night he opened by confiding that most teams stack up more right-handed hitters against the Pirates starter Charlie Morton because the stats seem to favor them over left-handed hitters. So the message is there is more to playing match-ups than just going with the old platoon. This message is invariably lost on Renteria. The Cubs came out with a lineup that included only Lake and Castro from the right side and seemingly paid the price.
I assume the Cubs will bring out their right-handed platoon tomorrow, such as it is. Liriano has more typical match-ups against same-sided hitters, so this is probably the best thing to do. On the other hand, Liriano, despite pitching back to form (this is, indifferently) this season, usually gives the Cubs fits.
Glad to see Veras go, by the way. A useless waste of money by the front office.
Still 5-1 was not bad, mostly on the wave of solid pitching and some heroic hitting by Anthony Rizzo. Monday night was not so lucky an experience. I've always thought the Cubs matched up well against the Pirates, but Jackson rarely matches up well against anyone and usually does not put together two quality starts in succession.
I'm beginning to like JD more and more for his commentaries and subtle digs at Cubs strategy. Last night he opened by confiding that most teams stack up more right-handed hitters against the Pirates starter Charlie Morton because the stats seem to favor them over left-handed hitters. So the message is there is more to playing match-ups than just going with the old platoon. This message is invariably lost on Renteria. The Cubs came out with a lineup that included only Lake and Castro from the right side and seemingly paid the price.
I assume the Cubs will bring out their right-handed platoon tomorrow, such as it is. Liriano has more typical match-ups against same-sided hitters, so this is probably the best thing to do. On the other hand, Liriano, despite pitching back to form (this is, indifferently) this season, usually gives the Cubs fits.
Glad to see Veras go, by the way. A useless waste of money by the front office.
Monday, June 2, 2014
Whatever
There is not much reason to write about the Cubs or to watch them for that matter. Still, it is in the blood, so I am compelled to do so. What is pretty clear is this team is going nowhere.
There are two worthwhile pieces I came across during the week, one analyzing Jeff Samardzija and the other Junior Lake. Both are worth a read.
The season is one-third over. The Cubs project to continue losing a little less than two of every three games. Maybe worse if they trade away all their starting pitchers in June or July. Either way it looks like 100 losses again.
Time for even the Cubs to start drawing some conclusions. Like this rebuilding plan resembles nothing so much as Groundhog Day and needs some tweaks, don't you think?
Anyway, here are some obvious conclusions, starting with the building blocks.
Anthony Rizzo is developing into a pretty good player, just not along the lines of a classic power-hitting first baseman. Rizzo looks to me like a poor man's Joey Votto right now. On a good team, he would be an excellent #2 hitter, assuming there was a #3 to back him up and a leadoff man who got on base.
Starlin Castro is a decent major league player. He is hopelessly misplaced batting cleanup and will likely settle in as a #6 hitter on a decent team. Even when he was batting near .300 and getting 200 hits, his OPS was in the mid .700s. In other words, not a star, especially considering his erratic defense. If you think Baez is the real deal, you should trade Castro or move him to CF.
Wellington Castillo still has potential, but he needs more consistent rest to develop into a solid hitter. He needs help from his pitchers to control the running game, which he is not getting.
The rest of the position players are not much to write home about. Lake is still a project, as is Olt. Valbuena, despite his streaks and newly-minted patience, is still just a left-handed hitter who can hit fastballs from mid-level pitchers. In short, he is a perfect utility infielder and pinch-hitter. Barney is still a great infielder who will always be about a .250 hitter. A good team would find him invaluable as a stabilizing influence on the infield. Unfortunately, the Cubs sparing use of him this year has just not let him find his stride as a hitter and has destroyed whatever trade value he may have possessed.
One of the genuine puzzlers for me this season is the infatuation the Cubs have developed for Emilio Bonafacio. Bonafacio is a career mediocrity. He has speed to burn, but doesn't use it and when he does it gets him in so much trouble on the bases, you wish he hadn't.
Bonafacio started the season on fire. Since then he has returned to his basic form. He is hitting .269 with an OBP of .315. Career numbers: .263/.321. Last ten games: .162/under .250. Yet he is in the lineup everyday leading off. No wonder the Cubs never score with a table-setter like that. Time to go grab some pine, as Hawk would say were he on the South Side.
The outfield is the real problem on this team. There isn't any. Lake is a project. I thought Schierholtz and Ruggiano would provide a placeholder tandem in RF, but clearly they have both been major disappointments. Time to pull the plug on that. The rest of the outfielders, including the guys on injured reserve and down in AAA, are hardly better than AA or AAA players.
The Cubs pitching, especially their starting pitching, is a significant strength. You kind of wonder why they intend to trade away two of their best three starters, but, hey, that's the PLAN and one does not deviate from the PLAN, right? Just pay Samardzija already.
The bullpen is a bit of a project, but it is well stocked with some interesting power arms who are in the process of development. Certainly Strop and Rondon and Ramirez come to mind. One thing the Cubs should consider is trying to bring along some of the better arms in AAA in a more traditional way, giving them major league experience first in the bullpen before they hit the starting rotation and wash out. Rusin and Hendricks might benefit from this treatment, and God knows what the hell they are doing with Wada down there.
There are some modest trade chips in the Cubs bullpen now. Villanueva and Veras are having sub-par seasons, as is Russell. Wright is an OK left-handed specialist, but you only need a left-handed specialist when you have a chance to get that one out that puts you in position to win. The Cubs are a good ten outs shy of that spot right now.
There are two worthwhile pieces I came across during the week, one analyzing Jeff Samardzija and the other Junior Lake. Both are worth a read.
The season is one-third over. The Cubs project to continue losing a little less than two of every three games. Maybe worse if they trade away all their starting pitchers in June or July. Either way it looks like 100 losses again.
Time for even the Cubs to start drawing some conclusions. Like this rebuilding plan resembles nothing so much as Groundhog Day and needs some tweaks, don't you think?
Anyway, here are some obvious conclusions, starting with the building blocks.
Anthony Rizzo is developing into a pretty good player, just not along the lines of a classic power-hitting first baseman. Rizzo looks to me like a poor man's Joey Votto right now. On a good team, he would be an excellent #2 hitter, assuming there was a #3 to back him up and a leadoff man who got on base.
Starlin Castro is a decent major league player. He is hopelessly misplaced batting cleanup and will likely settle in as a #6 hitter on a decent team. Even when he was batting near .300 and getting 200 hits, his OPS was in the mid .700s. In other words, not a star, especially considering his erratic defense. If you think Baez is the real deal, you should trade Castro or move him to CF.
Wellington Castillo still has potential, but he needs more consistent rest to develop into a solid hitter. He needs help from his pitchers to control the running game, which he is not getting.
The rest of the position players are not much to write home about. Lake is still a project, as is Olt. Valbuena, despite his streaks and newly-minted patience, is still just a left-handed hitter who can hit fastballs from mid-level pitchers. In short, he is a perfect utility infielder and pinch-hitter. Barney is still a great infielder who will always be about a .250 hitter. A good team would find him invaluable as a stabilizing influence on the infield. Unfortunately, the Cubs sparing use of him this year has just not let him find his stride as a hitter and has destroyed whatever trade value he may have possessed.
One of the genuine puzzlers for me this season is the infatuation the Cubs have developed for Emilio Bonafacio. Bonafacio is a career mediocrity. He has speed to burn, but doesn't use it and when he does it gets him in so much trouble on the bases, you wish he hadn't.
Bonafacio started the season on fire. Since then he has returned to his basic form. He is hitting .269 with an OBP of .315. Career numbers: .263/.321. Last ten games: .162/under .250. Yet he is in the lineup everyday leading off. No wonder the Cubs never score with a table-setter like that. Time to go grab some pine, as Hawk would say were he on the South Side.
The outfield is the real problem on this team. There isn't any. Lake is a project. I thought Schierholtz and Ruggiano would provide a placeholder tandem in RF, but clearly they have both been major disappointments. Time to pull the plug on that. The rest of the outfielders, including the guys on injured reserve and down in AAA, are hardly better than AA or AAA players.
The Cubs pitching, especially their starting pitching, is a significant strength. You kind of wonder why they intend to trade away two of their best three starters, but, hey, that's the PLAN and one does not deviate from the PLAN, right? Just pay Samardzija already.
The bullpen is a bit of a project, but it is well stocked with some interesting power arms who are in the process of development. Certainly Strop and Rondon and Ramirez come to mind. One thing the Cubs should consider is trying to bring along some of the better arms in AAA in a more traditional way, giving them major league experience first in the bullpen before they hit the starting rotation and wash out. Rusin and Hendricks might benefit from this treatment, and God knows what the hell they are doing with Wada down there.
There are some modest trade chips in the Cubs bullpen now. Villanueva and Veras are having sub-par seasons, as is Russell. Wright is an OK left-handed specialist, but you only need a left-handed specialist when you have a chance to get that one out that puts you in position to win. The Cubs are a good ten outs shy of that spot right now.
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