Word is that Russell Martin has signed a five-year deal with Toronto for $82MM. This kind of underlines how tough it is to land a big-time free agent in today's market, especially when you are dealing with a scarce commodity like a good defensive catcher who can hit and get on base. Martin would have been a pretty good fit for the Cubs, but that's a hefty price tag for a 32 year old catcher.
The story is the Blue Jays were the only suitor to offer five years, which makes him 37 in the final year of the contract. Those last two years are potential problems, especially for an NL team that cannot rest him in a DH role. I'm not that broken up about the result. Castillo is still a decent catcher. The Cubs need to focus on finding a backup.
No other notable hot stove stuff that has not already been published. The Cubs are still considered major contenders for Jon Lester and have added Justin Masterson into the mix as a one or two year gamble. Masterson could come back big next year if he is healthy, but I still think the Cubs need to land a major talent like Lester to be competitive.
I haven't seen too much in the way of reasonable scenarios for Hamels. The Phillies seem to want three top-tier prospects, two being major league ready. I doubt the Cubs, having spent three years building up a cadre of prospects, are going to go for this kind of deal. I could see them moving Baez in this kind of trade, but I should think the rest of the package would include guys of lesser merit or guys who are blocked like Vogelbach.
The trade of Vizcaino to the Braves for 2B prospect La Stella is a bit of a puzzler given the Cubs apparent surfeit of middle infielders. From the news, the Cubs have always liked LaStella, a high OBP guy who hits for average and does not strike out much. In my mind, this is a winning kind of player at this position, a left-handed bat as well. The thing is you do not get a guy like that as a reserve player, so the move has led to the inevitable speculation that somebody in the Baez, Russell, Castro mix is going to be moved, likely Castro or Baez.
For my money Baez is the more valuable trade bait to get a front line pitcher. I have always been critical of Castro's sometimes sloppy play and dumb habits at the plate, but last year he did seem to develop into a more disciplined player. However, he has likely reached a plateau in his abilities and everybody knows it. Baez, on the other hand, is perceived to have a substantially higher potential. However, Baez is also a strikeout machine who has no idea how to play baseball. At best, his development will likely require years of tutelage to produce a player who will hit a lot of home runs, never get on base, and still strikeout at an unacceptable level.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Rumors
The Cubs are linked to a variety of interesting players, especially among the free agents, in the wake of the imminent arrival of several of their best prospects and the hiring of a real major league manager in Joe Maddon.
Obviously the pitching is the biggest need and the most glamorous position in terms of free agents and premier players who might be available for trade. Pitching is the strength of the current free agent class in any case, as this year's crop is notably weak in hitters and position players.
The Cubs have been prominently linked to Jon Lester who has some history with Epstein from his Boston days and will also not cost the Cubs a draft pick. Lester is really good, but he will not be cheap, ending up somewhere between $20 and $25MM per year in at least a four year deal.
Max Scherzer is also prominently mentioned, as well as James Shields. These guys are good, though I think Shields is not the dominant starter he was in 2013. Also, each of these guys is going to cost Lester money or more as well as a draft choice. In the Cubs case, this is a second round choice as they have been so bad their first round pick is protected I tend to think the Cubs will go for Lester and forget the other two, who are likely to sign elsewhere in any case.
An intriguing possibility is that the Cubs are reported to be talking to the Phillies about Cole Hamels. Hamels is in the same class of pitcher as Lester and would be a good acquisition. He has four years and $96MM left on his contract with Philadelphia, which is less than Lester would cost. He would, however, cost the Cubs at least one of their more prized prospects. The Cubs claimed Hamels on waivers last season, but the teams were unable to work out the terms of a trade. I, for one, would not be unhappy to see Baez dealt as the centerpiece of this trade even though he might turn out to be a star player. The Cubs are rich in infield prospects and personally I do not think a guy who strikes out at the rate Baez does and possesses no plate discipline whatsoever is going to amount nearly as much as the hype projects him to become.
The Cubs might be able to acquire Hamels more cheaply depending on how anxious the Phils are to dump salary and how long term their plans are. The Cubs have a number of guys like Vogelbach, for example, who are a little further away from the majors and who may be blocked by current regulars or nearer term prospects.
The other big rumor is the Cubs are making a pitch for the Pirates catcher Russell Martin. This makes some sense. Martin is a really good defensive catcher who can hit and who gets on base a lot. I've always like Welington Castillo, but he had a down year last season and he may not be the player the Cubs have hoped to see. On the other hand, he had to battle through some injuries last year, so, should the Cubs fail to land Martin, they could still go into next season with Castillo behind the plate provided they acquire a veteran backup.
Another free agent rumor has the Cubs making a play for David Robertson, the Yankees closer. Robertson is pretty good, but I tend to discount this one. For one thing, Robertson has a qualifying offer and the Cubs are just not going to give away that many draft picks under the current regime. For another thing, the Cubs bullpen is pretty well stocked right now. Also, free agent relievers are not the best bet in terms of the probability of success. The Cubs principal bullpen need right now is a dominant lefty. If they want to go into the market for expensive bullpen help, Andrew Miller is the guy they should target.
Obviously the pitching is the biggest need and the most glamorous position in terms of free agents and premier players who might be available for trade. Pitching is the strength of the current free agent class in any case, as this year's crop is notably weak in hitters and position players.
The Cubs have been prominently linked to Jon Lester who has some history with Epstein from his Boston days and will also not cost the Cubs a draft pick. Lester is really good, but he will not be cheap, ending up somewhere between $20 and $25MM per year in at least a four year deal.
Max Scherzer is also prominently mentioned, as well as James Shields. These guys are good, though I think Shields is not the dominant starter he was in 2013. Also, each of these guys is going to cost Lester money or more as well as a draft choice. In the Cubs case, this is a second round choice as they have been so bad their first round pick is protected I tend to think the Cubs will go for Lester and forget the other two, who are likely to sign elsewhere in any case.
An intriguing possibility is that the Cubs are reported to be talking to the Phillies about Cole Hamels. Hamels is in the same class of pitcher as Lester and would be a good acquisition. He has four years and $96MM left on his contract with Philadelphia, which is less than Lester would cost. He would, however, cost the Cubs at least one of their more prized prospects. The Cubs claimed Hamels on waivers last season, but the teams were unable to work out the terms of a trade. I, for one, would not be unhappy to see Baez dealt as the centerpiece of this trade even though he might turn out to be a star player. The Cubs are rich in infield prospects and personally I do not think a guy who strikes out at the rate Baez does and possesses no plate discipline whatsoever is going to amount nearly as much as the hype projects him to become.
The Cubs might be able to acquire Hamels more cheaply depending on how anxious the Phils are to dump salary and how long term their plans are. The Cubs have a number of guys like Vogelbach, for example, who are a little further away from the majors and who may be blocked by current regulars or nearer term prospects.
The other big rumor is the Cubs are making a pitch for the Pirates catcher Russell Martin. This makes some sense. Martin is a really good defensive catcher who can hit and who gets on base a lot. I've always like Welington Castillo, but he had a down year last season and he may not be the player the Cubs have hoped to see. On the other hand, he had to battle through some injuries last year, so, should the Cubs fail to land Martin, they could still go into next season with Castillo behind the plate provided they acquire a veteran backup.
Another free agent rumor has the Cubs making a play for David Robertson, the Yankees closer. Robertson is pretty good, but I tend to discount this one. For one thing, Robertson has a qualifying offer and the Cubs are just not going to give away that many draft picks under the current regime. For another thing, the Cubs bullpen is pretty well stocked right now. Also, free agent relievers are not the best bet in terms of the probability of success. The Cubs principal bullpen need right now is a dominant lefty. If they want to go into the market for expensive bullpen help, Andrew Miller is the guy they should target.
Monday, November 3, 2014
Maddon
Maddon seems like an interesting guy and, for the first time in a long while, looks as if he has the skill set and personality to manage the Cubs successfully. Lets hope things pan out. I especially like his upbeat predictions. Long past time to think like a winner or a contender instead of just resigning oneself to another awful season.
On a side note, I like the signing of Wada. Wada pitched very well after the Cubs brought him up and put him in the rotation. He was kind of a five or six inning pitcher, but I think that was because they were easing him back from his surgery more than anything else.
I'm hoping the Cubs make a big play for Lester who, to my mind, is the best available free agent starter. I don't like Peavy despite his late season revival with the Giants. The Giants play in a big ballpark and Wrigley isn't. I kind of think Peavy is done as a big game pitcher. I also was not all that impressed with Shields through the playoffs and World Series. If the Cubs get Lester, they can afford to go for a lesser talent looking to rebuild value, someone like Masterson, for example, or they could bring back Hammel, who did not pitch that badly for the A's down the stretch after a rough start.
On a side note, I like the signing of Wada. Wada pitched very well after the Cubs brought him up and put him in the rotation. He was kind of a five or six inning pitcher, but I think that was because they were easing him back from his surgery more than anything else.
I'm hoping the Cubs make a big play for Lester who, to my mind, is the best available free agent starter. I don't like Peavy despite his late season revival with the Giants. The Giants play in a big ballpark and Wrigley isn't. I kind of think Peavy is done as a big game pitcher. I also was not all that impressed with Shields through the playoffs and World Series. If the Cubs get Lester, they can afford to go for a lesser talent looking to rebuild value, someone like Masterson, for example, or they could bring back Hammel, who did not pitch that badly for the A's down the stretch after a rough start.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)