The Cubs should be pretty busy this week evaluating their current free agents and players with options. They have until Friday to make decisions. Most of them are rather obvious.
As to the team options, those eligible are Hamels, Strop, and Kintzler. The Cubs should jump at getting Hamels even though he will cost $20MM. Similarly, Strop is an obvious choice as well even at $6.5MM. Kintzler was a total bust and a rather obvious thumbs down at $10MM.
Free agents might be a little trickier, but I guess fairly predictable as well. The pitchers are Chavez, De La Rosa, Wilson, and Garcia. Look for the Cubs to try to retain Chavez for sure and probably De La Rosa. Look for them to pass on Wilson and more than likely Garcia.
Position players are Murphy and Bobby Wilson, a journeyman catcher who cannot hit at all and actually never got into a game for the Cubs. Wilson is likely gone.
There have been rumblings about the Cubs taking a shot at keeping Murphy. I kind of doubt it and I also think it is a bad move. The Cubs expected Murphy to be a game-changer offensively when they picked him up in the midst of a general batting slump. However, after a brief stretch of success when he first arrived, he did not provide the kind of kick-start they needed. He achieved a 0.2 WAR and pretty ordinary stats down the stretch. Moreover, he was and is a defensive liability.
There's a lot of uncertainty about Russell's future with the team and whether the Cubs are willing to invest in some sort of rehabilitation project, but there are plenty of infield options on the current roster to carry the team through Russell's suspension period and beyond if necessary, viz., Zobrist, Bote, and LaStella. I rather believe that Murphy's future is as a DH or maybe a stopgap first baseman someplace.
Much as the sportswriters want to whip up enthusiasm on the Machado front, I cannot see the Cubs showing other than a perfunctory interest. If the Cubs go for anyone as a priority in free agency, it will be an impact left-handed reliever.
Congratulations to the Red Sox, far and away the best team in 2018 and worthy champions.
Monday, October 29, 2018
Monday, October 22, 2018
Cubs Speculation
Now the Cubs season has ended, mad speculation begins on what the team will do in the off-season to improve. Bear in mind, the Cubs, woeful as their second half turned out, especially in September, won 95 games. Mediocre as their performance was in the second half, they were still 40-30 after the break.
Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado. I'm not so sure. For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop. Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them. Machado is a much better third baseman. The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base. This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant. So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do. Witness his performance so far in the playoffs. OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.
Harper may be a different story. Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot. I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short. First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him. Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.
The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown. The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs. Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four. They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.
The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season. They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so. Wilson is gone for sure. Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents. They ought to sign Chavez. Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.
I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop.
As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.
Most of the sportswriters seem to think the Cubs ought to go after big time free agents like Harper and Machado. I'm not so sure. For one thing, Machado is not a very good shortstop. Given the Cubs have two of the best shortstops in the league, it would seem counter-intuitive to switch these guys around or trade them. Machado is a much better third baseman. The problem there is that Bryant is a regular at third base. This would necessitate a move to the outfield for Bryant. So I just don't see Machado as so much of an impact player as others do. Witness his performance so far in the playoffs. OK, sure, but not dramatic unless you count his attempts to maim opposition players.
Harper may be a different story. Harper is a pretty ordinary outfielder, but a major slugger and a left-handed hitter to boot. I could see the Cubs making a run there, but I can also see them falling short. First off, the Nationals will take a big shot at keeping him. Secondly, granted he is an impact hitter, the kind of contract he is likely to command makes it all the more difficult to retain a number of the Cubs young stars who will demand big contracts to stay on over the next few years.
The other big talk is about the Cubs pitching, which, I think, is really overblown. The Cubs would have had the best or close to the best starting four through the playoffs. Assuming they retain Hamels, which, given his performance through the second half, is a near certainty, they will return with this same starting four. They also have the prospect of a healthy Darvish, a rebuilt Smyly, and Montgomery and Chatwood in the wings.
The bullpen may get some shoring up in the off-season. They are likely to lose several relievers to free agency, or are at risk of doing so. Wilson is gone for sure. Chavez, de la Rosa, and Garcia are free agents. They ought to sign Chavez. Kintzler has some sort of complicated option thing going, but the Cubs need to dump him for good.
I rather see the Cubs making a play for a dominant left-hander like Miller or Britton in free agency. This would take a lot of pressure off Morrow and Strop.
As far as the bullpen holding up, fans ought to come to terms with the idea that so long as Maddon insists on removing his starters in the fifth or sixth inning instead of letting them pitch out of trouble, the bullpen will inevitably break down late in the season no matter who is out there.
Saturday, October 20, 2018
NLCS
I was happy to see the Brewers eliminated by the Dodgers. I confess to a particular disdain for the Milwaukee club, but, honestly, I don't see how they were able to win 96 games with that roster. I mean, besides Cain and Yelich and Aquilar, they have a bunch of aging veterans, most of whom they picked up at the trade deadline and several platoon players. Worst of all, they have no starting pitchers worth the name. In the entire series, a seven game series, their starters pitched something like 20 innings.
Of course, they have a great bullpen, and I suppose you have to credit Counsel full marks for getting as far as he did with this team. However, Counsel did come a cropper in the NLCS, doing his best to channel his inner Joe Maddon on steroids in the process. You can only go so far when you routinely go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning. Sooner or later, they are going to run out of gas.
I expect Boston to make short work of LA in the World Series. I really thought the ALCS would go longer, as Houston is a quality team, but the fact that the Red Sox eliminated them in five games, three on the road, speaks volumes about their approach and talent.
Of course, they have a great bullpen, and I suppose you have to credit Counsel full marks for getting as far as he did with this team. However, Counsel did come a cropper in the NLCS, doing his best to channel his inner Joe Maddon on steroids in the process. You can only go so far when you routinely go to the bullpen in the third or fourth inning. Sooner or later, they are going to run out of gas.
I expect Boston to make short work of LA in the World Series. I really thought the ALCS would go longer, as Houston is a quality team, but the fact that the Red Sox eliminated them in five games, three on the road, speaks volumes about their approach and talent.
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Playoffs
Geez. Watching the Dodgers is like watching the Cubs. Thirty strikeouts in two games. Two runs in 22 innings. At least they won. I've been rooting for them to beat the Brewers anyway, mostly because I cannot stand the Brewers and also because one can never root for a red state team in the playoffs.
For those fans who yearn for the Cubs to pursue Machado in free agency, it may pay to watch him closely during the post-season. Machado is a good hitter to be sure. So far he reminds me a lot of Baez, which, of course is good and bad. The real deal is that he seems to be a head case. He has so far tried to maim Brewers middle infielders on two occasions as well as going out of his way to kick the Brewers first baseman in he ankle on a close play at first base. Also, on the winning hit moments ago, it looked like he paused for a bit before running hard to home plate. He made it, but you have to wonder. Two outs, solid hit, you're on second base. You run like crazy, don't you?
As to the AL series, I like the Red Sox. both because of the red state/blue state formula, but also because I rather think they are the best team right now. The Astros are good, though. Either one is likely to be the champion.
For those fans who yearn for the Cubs to pursue Machado in free agency, it may pay to watch him closely during the post-season. Machado is a good hitter to be sure. So far he reminds me a lot of Baez, which, of course is good and bad. The real deal is that he seems to be a head case. He has so far tried to maim Brewers middle infielders on two occasions as well as going out of his way to kick the Brewers first baseman in he ankle on a close play at first base. Also, on the winning hit moments ago, it looked like he paused for a bit before running hard to home plate. He made it, but you have to wonder. Two outs, solid hit, you're on second base. You run like crazy, don't you?
As to the AL series, I like the Red Sox. both because of the red state/blue state formula, but also because I rather think they are the best team right now. The Astros are good, though. Either one is likely to be the champion.
Friday, October 12, 2018
Chili Davis Out
One cannot blame the Cubs for dismissing Davis based on the team's performance. They really had only a few streaks where they were clicking on all cylinders. Maybe not his fault, but it was pretty brutal watching the team play, especially in September. Bryant's injury and missing Russell and Heyward and Zobrist for longish stretches undoubtedly had a lot to do with it, but still, they were a mess.
The Chicago Tribune gives a list of potential replacements. I'd prefer Magadan myself.
The Chicago Tribune gives a list of potential replacements. I'd prefer Magadan myself.
Friday, October 5, 2018
A Disappointing End
Actually, disgusting is a better description. The final two games were pretty depressing. Once again, no offense. The pitching was terrific over 13 innings; the hitting non-existent.
I cannot carp too much about Maddon's game management in this one. One might question leaving Hendricks in when he got in trouble with two outs in the 13th, but you have to figure he can retire a .170 hitter. Similarly, removing Lester for a pinch hitter to begin the 7th was a questionable move.
I did not have the same opinion, however, on his use of the bench. Batting Heyward with the bases loaded was, although defensible, an awkward move. Pinch running for Rizzo with Gore was also defensible. It's hard to take out your best player, but it was obvious that Maddon had no confidence in scoring that run unless he did something unusual. In the end, they tied the score. What puzzled me, though was leaving Gore in the game. I mean, Caratini was available to play first base.
Gore batted twice in the ensuing innings. It is plain that Gore is not a real baseball player, just a pinch runner. He seemed to be thinking about bunting both times, but he clearly cannot bunt. A guy with that kind of speed ought to learn how to bunt. The last at-bat in the 13th was a joke. Couldn't he at least have pretended to be grazed by that inside pitch instead of just standing around looking bewildered before running down to first base?
Maddon does a lot of magical thinking in his game management. This was a really bizarre move and I am kind of surprised there has not been more criticism.
More tomorrow about personnel and the future.
I cannot carp too much about Maddon's game management in this one. One might question leaving Hendricks in when he got in trouble with two outs in the 13th, but you have to figure he can retire a .170 hitter. Similarly, removing Lester for a pinch hitter to begin the 7th was a questionable move.
I did not have the same opinion, however, on his use of the bench. Batting Heyward with the bases loaded was, although defensible, an awkward move. Pinch running for Rizzo with Gore was also defensible. It's hard to take out your best player, but it was obvious that Maddon had no confidence in scoring that run unless he did something unusual. In the end, they tied the score. What puzzled me, though was leaving Gore in the game. I mean, Caratini was available to play first base.
Gore batted twice in the ensuing innings. It is plain that Gore is not a real baseball player, just a pinch runner. He seemed to be thinking about bunting both times, but he clearly cannot bunt. A guy with that kind of speed ought to learn how to bunt. The last at-bat in the 13th was a joke. Couldn't he at least have pretended to be grazed by that inside pitch instead of just standing around looking bewildered before running down to first base?
Maddon does a lot of magical thinking in his game management. This was a really bizarre move and I am kind of surprised there has not been more criticism.
More tomorrow about personnel and the future.
Monday, October 1, 2018
Tense Loss
Some observations on the tiebreaker loss.
The Cubs are just so inconsistent on offense. On Monday, they were in full swing mode. Granted Chacin was throwing strikes, but there are other ways to raise the pitch count, like spoiling pitches and fouling balls off. When the Cubs are in swing mode they never score unless they hit a home run. Should they survive the Wild Card Game vs. Colorado, they are not going to advance unless they straighten out their heads.
I probably would not have removed Quintana with such a low pitch count even though there were some hard hits. Pitching to Yelich with a runner at third was dumb and cost them a run. Removing Quintana unnecesssriky worked out well because Chavez was able to go two scoreless innings, but, still, Maddon has a tendency to pull his pitchers too early and given the almost complete meltdown of the relief corps since the Strop injury, this is a luxury he cannot afford.
Maddon was out-managed throughout the game by Counsel. Granted the Brewers have a superior bullpen, using the combination of Wilson and Cishek in the eighth inning was a big blunder. These two, along with Edwards and Kintzler, have been largely ineffective all through September. They ought to be better, but they are not. If you wanted a lefty to start that inning, the better options were Rosario or De La Rosa or Garcia. Why you would want a lefty in that spot is a bit of a puzzle. Presumably to keep Shaw on the bench.
Bottom line, the Cubs hitting approach is just completely messed up right now, but Maddon has to stop the micro-managing or at least do a better job of it. I like their chances against the Rockies tonight. Lester is a big game pitcher. Freeland is pitching on short rest. Should they survive, they have every chance to beat the Brewers who are bound to cool off sometime. The Cubs have superior starting pitchers, though that is balanced out by the Brewers bullpen strength. Position for position the Cubs are a superior team with the exception of Cain and Yelich. Of course, they have not played like that for a month.
The Cubs are just so inconsistent on offense. On Monday, they were in full swing mode. Granted Chacin was throwing strikes, but there are other ways to raise the pitch count, like spoiling pitches and fouling balls off. When the Cubs are in swing mode they never score unless they hit a home run. Should they survive the Wild Card Game vs. Colorado, they are not going to advance unless they straighten out their heads.
I probably would not have removed Quintana with such a low pitch count even though there were some hard hits. Pitching to Yelich with a runner at third was dumb and cost them a run. Removing Quintana unnecesssriky worked out well because Chavez was able to go two scoreless innings, but, still, Maddon has a tendency to pull his pitchers too early and given the almost complete meltdown of the relief corps since the Strop injury, this is a luxury he cannot afford.
Maddon was out-managed throughout the game by Counsel. Granted the Brewers have a superior bullpen, using the combination of Wilson and Cishek in the eighth inning was a big blunder. These two, along with Edwards and Kintzler, have been largely ineffective all through September. They ought to be better, but they are not. If you wanted a lefty to start that inning, the better options were Rosario or De La Rosa or Garcia. Why you would want a lefty in that spot is a bit of a puzzle. Presumably to keep Shaw on the bench.
Bottom line, the Cubs hitting approach is just completely messed up right now, but Maddon has to stop the micro-managing or at least do a better job of it. I like their chances against the Rockies tonight. Lester is a big game pitcher. Freeland is pitching on short rest. Should they survive, they have every chance to beat the Brewers who are bound to cool off sometime. The Cubs have superior starting pitchers, though that is balanced out by the Brewers bullpen strength. Position for position the Cubs are a superior team with the exception of Cain and Yelich. Of course, they have not played like that for a month.
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