Saturday, August 24, 2013

Rock Bottom

How on Earth can you lose a game when you score six runs in the first inning before you even make a single out?  I'll answer that with another question.  Why on Earth is Earnest Jackson pitching into the seventh inning when he has blown a six run lead?

I think the answer to the second question is pretty simple.  Dale Sveum allows his starters to throw at least 100 pitches if they are ahead or tied, whatever the quality of the pitches they are throwing.  Sveum never deviates from the game plan, no matter what.  It is like having an automaton in the dugout.

The answer to the first question is a little more complicated, but it has a lot to do with expectations and knowing how to win, or, in this case, not giving a damn whether you win or lose.  Surely fans have noticed that whenever the Cubs jump out to an early lead, they just seem to quit.  Short, quick at-bats, etc.  In their minds, the game is over.  The same syndrome is manifested in another observation, namely, how much better their at-bats seem to be late in the game, taking pitches, making tough outs, executing basic baseball strategies, etc.

In short, in these situations, some if not all of the players are paying attention.  Something they do not do most of the time.  So, some of this has to do with the players' ability and makeup for sure, but a lot has to do with the environment and the coaching.

I don't know the answer here, but one thing I do know is there is a big difference between being competitive and expecting to be competitive and expecting to lose all the time.  In the latter case, how you mess up doesn't much matter because no matter what you do, you will still lose.

So this so-called plan the Cubs have is theoretically fine, but in practice, without the presence of a serious manager and coaching staff and genuine expectations, the result is what you see on the field now.  The Cubs major league team is built and is being managed as a AAA affiliate.  There are a few legitimate prospects who are being "developed" and a number of placeholders who are being kept aboard to fill perceived holes in the roster.  Right now, the guys the team has invested in, Castro and Rizzo in particular, are still playing as if they were in AAA.

Going back to last night's game illustrates my point in another way.  Why was Jackson still in the game?  This is how you manage when you are in the minor leagues, when the goal is to get in your work and expose players to game situations and so on.  The big problem is what do you do when the prospects don't develop and meet expectations, major league expectations.

Here's another example of Sveum-think and Cub-think that I saw recently.  Sveum was waxing on about how great Donnie Murphy has been since they called him up from Iowa, eight home runs in seventeen games, blah, blah, blah.  Where would the team be without him?  I'll tell you where the team would be.  They are 5-12 in that stretch.  They would be 4-13.  Big deal.  It is this kind of thinking that shows you how far away the Cubs really are from being a major league team.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Same Old Stuff

I haven't written on the blog lately, mainly because there is not much to say.  Although the Cubs broke out with 11 runs yesterday, it should be noted that 10 of them were the result of home runs.  Home runs alone are not an offense.  Also, one game means very little.  Of more significance is the fact they were shut out five times in the month of August, all at home, and on two other occasions, scored only a single run.

Some encouraging notes:
  • Maybe the Feldman trade was a clear plus for the Cubs.  Arrieta has pitched well in two starts and Strop has pitched creditably in relief.  Feldman, on the other hand, has been so-so with the Orioles, 3-3, ERA 1.4 more than with the Cubs.
  • Castillo has been impressive since the All-Star break and looks like he is developing into a pretty good catcher.  Junior Lake also looks like he has some potential as well, but, in his case, this must be tempered with the realization that this is his first time through the league.  He is maybe not quite the hacker one was led to believe from his minor league stats, although he is not exactly a patient hitter.  Schierholtz has been looking very good lately and has even picked it up somewhat against left-handed pitching.
  • Chris Rusin has pitched quite well since his call-up from AAA.
 Some discouraging notes:
  • Castro is still an awful player and his mental lapses continue to cause concern.
  • Rizzo's numbers continue to slide and he doesn't look like he knows what he is doing at the plate.
  • Jackson is just plain inconsistent bordering on awful.
  • Samardzija has been inconsistent as well, although he pitched very well last night.
On a final note, maybe someone can explain the DeJesus "trade", at least from the Nationals point-of-view.  For the Cubs, it is simple.  They dump an aging player whose skills are clearly heading downhill and who is a weak defender in CF, the only position his offensive stats entitle him to play.  DeJesus has become almost entirely a platoon player, and notwithstanding the consensus that he is a professional hitter, he is basically a .260 hitter who does not get on base enough to bat leadoff anymore.

Plus the Cubs save a bundle of money in terms of this year's remaining salary and the team buyout of his option.  Lets face it, nobody is going to pay DeJesus $6.5MM next year.  Now the Cubs save the $1.5MM they would have had to shell out to be rid of him.  The scary thing is the Cubs are willing to consider bringing him back at a discount in 2014.  Time to move on from this placeholder.  The Cubs have the worst outfield, defensively and offensively, that I can remember.  One of the reasons they do not score runs.

But for the Nats, you wonder what this buys them.  They are not going to reach the playoffs by any realistic conjecture.  So what do they want with a fourth outfielder this year when they have a solid starting three and some decent prospects in reserve?

I suppose the Nats answered that question by immediately putting DeJesus back on waivers.  Perhaps they are looking to flip him right away.  Maybe DeJesus is the player to be named later.  This one is a puzzler.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

The Trade Deadline Has Passed

Now it is time to lose and keep losing in order to guarantee a high draft choice.  Or so it would appear were we to follow the dictates of guys like Dave Kaplan and company who continually blare out this mantra on sports radio.

The Cubs have been only too happy to comply.  After an encouraging road trip where they compiled a 6-4 record primarily on the strength of their starting pitching, they have won only one game on the current home stand, much of which has taken place after the trade deadline when everyone can relax and just play baseball, Cubbie style.

Dale Sveum finally snapped after Friday's game.  Down 6-2 in the bottom of the ninth against Carlos Marmol, Julio Borbon doubled to lead off the inning, then managed to get thrown out at third trying to advance on a ball in the dirt.  Of course, this was a really dumb play given the game situation - no outs, down four runs, Marmol pitching - but, hey, it wasn't atypical for the Cubs.  Stalwarts like Soriano, when he was here, Castro, and Rizzo seem to make bonehead mistakes like this every day with little notice.

However, Borbon's mistake was the last straw for our savvy manager, who promptly launched into a vituperative diatribe about the incident, after which Borbon, who was hardly used anyway, was designated for assignment.  So it goes.

The Cubs brought up the perennial second rate utility infielder Donnie Murphy.  Kind of a poor man's Cody Ransom.  The Brewers and the Dodgers seem to have rediscovered the old formula for beating the Cubs, namely, keep those lefties coming and keep the right-handed platoon on the field.

Incidentally, the Cubs have been pretty boastful of the apparent success of some of their platoons, but lately the numbers have been coming down to earth.  The aforementioned Ransom is batting .059 in the second half with a .309 OPS.  Luis Valbuena is hitting .159 over roughly the same span.  Valbuena is headed for the DL with an oblique strain, so he is out until at least September and maybe for the season.

The rest of the platoons are not faring much better.  With the departure of Soriano, the Cubs are essentially platooning Cole Gillespie and DeJesus and playing Schierholtz every day.  Gillespie's numbers as a Cub are OK.  The odd thing is his BA against righties is 100 points worse than against lefties.  Schierholtz has never been up to much against left-handed pitching, .189 this year, so the results have been predictable.  However, given the prior platoons in right field that involved Hairston and Sappelt, he is not doing appreciably worse.