The only bright spot in the Reds series was the debut of Jorge Soler who so far has more than met expectations. Takes pitches, works the count in his favor, swings at strikes, hits with authority, throws to the right base and hits the cutoff man. What's wrong with this guy?
Maybe another bright spot was Travis Wood's performance Tuesday night. Otherwise the Cubs played their usual awful baseball against the Reds. It is kind of odd, but the Cubs play very badly nearly every time they face the Reds. It used to be the Brewers who brought out the worst in them, really on both sides. Nowadays it's the Reds.
On another note, Epstein announced the Cubs would have plenty of money to throw around in the off-season. About time. Nothing correlates with success in baseball more than spending money wisely. A lot of money.
On this topic, everyone seems to think the Cubs need to concentrate on pitching. Epstein's pitch looked like code for the idea he is going to go after Jon Lester big time in the free agent market. This is a good thing. The Cubs have been pretty successful in rescuing under-performing pitching over the past few years. Wood, Wada, and Arrieta come to mind, not to mention the guys they have flipped like Maholm, Feldman, and Hammel.
They have a solid coaching infrastructure in place that has provided impressive results. Still, if you are to contend, you need to get a genuine ace. That's about as far as I would go here. The Cubs real problem in Epstein's tenure has not been pitching, which has been pretty effective by and large.
The real problem is hitting, or, more precisely, scoring runs. The Cubs are at or near bottom in every category that leads to scoring runs. What the Cubs need is a veteran outfielder who hits for average and gets on base. I'm not sure who that is or if he is available as a free agent, but adding that piece could change a lot, especially if Bryant and Soler deliver and even if Baez turns out to be Soriano-lite.
Friday, August 29, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Last Home Stand
The Cubs managed to take four of the six games on the home stand, mainly because they swept the Orioles, holding them to only four runs in the series. I must say the Orioles were not impressive for being well ahead in the AL East. On the other hand, the Giants pitching completely dominated the Cubs hitters, who continue to reach double digits in strikeouts even when they manage to eek out a couple of runs and win a ballgame.
There is an interesting article about Javier Baez that is worth a read. It poses the question whether Baez will ever become the player everyone hopes he will if he continues to display a complete lack of plate discipline. Although most people hedge on this issue and the article never really answers the question, the real problem is whether he will be considered a solid star should he ameliorate the strikeouts a little bit, certainly under the over 40% rate he has displayed to date.
In other words, lets say he becomes another Soriano, who is the most comparable hitter to whom he bears comparison to date. Soriano had a good career. He was always suspect in the field no matter where he played. In this respect, Baez is superior, as he does seem to be a better than average infielder. On the other hand, he does not have Soriano's speed on the bases.
For my money, I have to say Baez has to do better to live up to the hype, if only to be consistent with my oft-expressed distaste for Soriano as a player. The thing is, guys like Soriano rarely play for really good championship teams. Soriano's only taste of a championship caliber team came with the Yankees early in his career. He played for the two Cubs teams that were quite good teams in 2007 and 2008, but otherwise for mediocre teams that could tolerate the holes in his game because they were not going anywhere anyway.
So lets hope Baez straightens himself out and learns how to play baseball instead of just putting on a home run show.
There is an interesting article about Javier Baez that is worth a read. It poses the question whether Baez will ever become the player everyone hopes he will if he continues to display a complete lack of plate discipline. Although most people hedge on this issue and the article never really answers the question, the real problem is whether he will be considered a solid star should he ameliorate the strikeouts a little bit, certainly under the over 40% rate he has displayed to date.
In other words, lets say he becomes another Soriano, who is the most comparable hitter to whom he bears comparison to date. Soriano had a good career. He was always suspect in the field no matter where he played. In this respect, Baez is superior, as he does seem to be a better than average infielder. On the other hand, he does not have Soriano's speed on the bases.
For my money, I have to say Baez has to do better to live up to the hype, if only to be consistent with my oft-expressed distaste for Soriano as a player. The thing is, guys like Soriano rarely play for really good championship teams. Soriano's only taste of a championship caliber team came with the Yankees early in his career. He played for the two Cubs teams that were quite good teams in 2007 and 2008, but otherwise for mediocre teams that could tolerate the holes in his game because they were not going anywhere anyway.
So lets hope Baez straightens himself out and learns how to play baseball instead of just putting on a home run show.
Monday, August 18, 2014
Mets Series
The Cubs managed to split the series in New York. Something of an achievement in that they struck out 44 times in four games. They also scored only ten runs, six of them on home runs.
I suppose this illustrates my problem with this team and also with a lot of the rebuilding and development process so far. These guys all swing for the fences every time they bat, regardless of the situation. Sometimes they get lucky and hit it out of the park. Mostly they do not. Teams who play in that style do not win consistently.
You have to question how this is all going to work out given that these tendencies exist throughout the organization from A ball to AAA to the majors and, if anything, because the majors are less forgiving, things tend to get a lot worse. Are these players the wrong players or uncoachable or are the coaches incompetent or is it a combination of factors?
Baez is a case in point. Today he struck out twice and hit a long home run to ice the game. Yesterday he walked twice, his first walks in the majors and struck out the other two at-bats. He has struck out 24 times in 62 plate appearances, roughly 40% of the time. There is certainly room for improvement there and potential as well, but lets see something positive over the rest of the season. And lets expect something positive as well.
On the positive side - and people are always saying I am overly negative in my assessments - Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks have both looked great. Together they could form the nucleus of a very productive staff. While Wood has been inconsistent, Wada has pitched well. Only Jackson continues to stink it up.
Evidently the Cubs know how to coach and develop pitchers. They need to acquire the same skills in relation to their hitting prospects.
I suppose this illustrates my problem with this team and also with a lot of the rebuilding and development process so far. These guys all swing for the fences every time they bat, regardless of the situation. Sometimes they get lucky and hit it out of the park. Mostly they do not. Teams who play in that style do not win consistently.
You have to question how this is all going to work out given that these tendencies exist throughout the organization from A ball to AAA to the majors and, if anything, because the majors are less forgiving, things tend to get a lot worse. Are these players the wrong players or uncoachable or are the coaches incompetent or is it a combination of factors?
Baez is a case in point. Today he struck out twice and hit a long home run to ice the game. Yesterday he walked twice, his first walks in the majors and struck out the other two at-bats. He has struck out 24 times in 62 plate appearances, roughly 40% of the time. There is certainly room for improvement there and potential as well, but lets see something positive over the rest of the season. And lets expect something positive as well.
On the positive side - and people are always saying I am overly negative in my assessments - Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks have both looked great. Together they could form the nucleus of a very productive staff. While Wood has been inconsistent, Wada has pitched well. Only Jackson continues to stink it up.
Evidently the Cubs know how to coach and develop pitchers. They need to acquire the same skills in relation to their hitting prospects.
Monday, August 11, 2014
Are Strikeouts Contagious?
One of the old announcer cliches used to be that hitting is contagious. I wonder if the same applies to strikeouts. Looks that way on this Cubs homestand. The Cubs added 9 this evening, bringing their total for the four games at Wrigley to 53 against a two walks, none tonight. That, in addition to some spotty and sloppy play in the field has led to a single win in four tries.
The Cubs pitching has not been too bad on the current stand either, so there is really no excuse for the pathetic offense. Wood pitched pretty well, as did Wada. Even Jackson only allowed four runs instead of the usual eight on Saturday. Arrieta pitched a great game last night. But for naught.
I guess one reason the Cubs don't score is their lineup. I mean, they would not score many runs anyway because of their lack of plate discipline and, lets be honest here, actual talent, but now that Renteria has settled on a more or less consistent lineup day-to-day, you kind of wonder about the order and how anyone could think it made much sense. Coghlan is having a nice year and makes some sense leading off, especially given the alternatives, but why is Baez batting second?
The theory is that batting in front of Rizzo he will get pitches to hit. However, since he swings at everything whether it is over his head or bouncing in, no one is going to throw him a pitch to hit unless by accident. Rizzo make sense third and I guess Castro, the only other guy who can hit with some consistency, can be justified. Valbuena fifth, though. Come on. Leaving aside the question of whether he should be playing at all, batting him fifth is an instant rally-killer. Teams have figured out that he is dangerous on occasion in a fastball count, so he never sees one he can hit.
Similarly, Alcantara is fast and seems a natural to bat second. Since Renteria dropped him down to sixth to take the pressure off, he is batting .167. Go figure. For the rest, Rugiano and Castillo, you are not expecting much consistency and that's what you get.
Actually, I've never understood the baseball cliche of putting certain guys in front of power hitters and others behind them for protection. I guess the idea of putting another good hitter behind your best hitter means that pitchers will not necessarily pitch around him, though the theory breaks down somewhat depending on the skill level of the secondary player. In the case of Rizzo and Castro, I would argue the situation benefits Castro more than Rizzo. Witness the number of walks Rizzo takes. Teams are quite content to pitch carefully to Rizzo and take their chances with Castro.
With respect to the notion of batting a less skilled hitter or less experienced hitter in front of a power guy, a similar measure of skill levels applies to its success. Alcantara, who has some rudimentary awareness of the strike zone, benefited from batting in front of Rizzo to the extent he saw more fastball strikes, pitches he is comfortable hitting, given that pitchers did not want to face Rizzo with men on base. Baez, since he has no idea whatever of the strike zone, derives no benefit from batting in front of the team's best hitter, since pitchers will continue to throw him bad pitches until he demonstrates that he can take them and work the count to his advantage. He actually hurts Rizzo by batting in front of him as he does not get on base or put the ball in play, so that in the long run, Rizzo will bat more often with no one on base and probably two outs.
The Cubs pitching has not been too bad on the current stand either, so there is really no excuse for the pathetic offense. Wood pitched pretty well, as did Wada. Even Jackson only allowed four runs instead of the usual eight on Saturday. Arrieta pitched a great game last night. But for naught.
I guess one reason the Cubs don't score is their lineup. I mean, they would not score many runs anyway because of their lack of plate discipline and, lets be honest here, actual talent, but now that Renteria has settled on a more or less consistent lineup day-to-day, you kind of wonder about the order and how anyone could think it made much sense. Coghlan is having a nice year and makes some sense leading off, especially given the alternatives, but why is Baez batting second?
The theory is that batting in front of Rizzo he will get pitches to hit. However, since he swings at everything whether it is over his head or bouncing in, no one is going to throw him a pitch to hit unless by accident. Rizzo make sense third and I guess Castro, the only other guy who can hit with some consistency, can be justified. Valbuena fifth, though. Come on. Leaving aside the question of whether he should be playing at all, batting him fifth is an instant rally-killer. Teams have figured out that he is dangerous on occasion in a fastball count, so he never sees one he can hit.
Similarly, Alcantara is fast and seems a natural to bat second. Since Renteria dropped him down to sixth to take the pressure off, he is batting .167. Go figure. For the rest, Rugiano and Castillo, you are not expecting much consistency and that's what you get.
Actually, I've never understood the baseball cliche of putting certain guys in front of power hitters and others behind them for protection. I guess the idea of putting another good hitter behind your best hitter means that pitchers will not necessarily pitch around him, though the theory breaks down somewhat depending on the skill level of the secondary player. In the case of Rizzo and Castro, I would argue the situation benefits Castro more than Rizzo. Witness the number of walks Rizzo takes. Teams are quite content to pitch carefully to Rizzo and take their chances with Castro.
With respect to the notion of batting a less skilled hitter or less experienced hitter in front of a power guy, a similar measure of skill levels applies to its success. Alcantara, who has some rudimentary awareness of the strike zone, benefited from batting in front of Rizzo to the extent he saw more fastball strikes, pitches he is comfortable hitting, given that pitchers did not want to face Rizzo with men on base. Baez, since he has no idea whatever of the strike zone, derives no benefit from batting in front of the team's best hitter, since pitchers will continue to throw him bad pitches until he demonstrates that he can take them and work the count to his advantage. He actually hurts Rizzo by batting in front of him as he does not get on base or put the ball in play, so that in the long run, Rizzo will bat more often with no one on base and probably two outs.
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Javier Baez
Mixed reviews so far for Baez. The die-hards, of course, welcome him as the second coming of Ernie Banks or something. Witness the standing ovation in his first at-bat. Are these fans nuts, or just desperate?
Anyway, I'm of two minds on the issue as well. On the one hand, I would like to see the kid succeed, and I do see the makings of a really talented hitter somewhere in there, at least a guy with enormous power potential.
On the other hand, however, there is the just simply out-of-control play, even in the field. Baez just simply strikes out too often, and if he continues to do so, I wonder whether he can ever become a real star on a winning team. The sobering thing is that not only does he strike out about a quarter of the time, but his strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 21% in 2012 to 26% in 2013 to 30% this season before the promotion.
Right now he looks over-matched by major league pitching, despite the three home runs and the respectable average. Ten Ks in 23 ABs is just awful. The thing is that you don't have to offer at every pitch. When Baez settled down in the AB in which he doubled yesterday, he made the pitcher throw a strike. Right now no pitcher in his right mind should throw him a strike.
On a deeper level, I wonder what is it about this organization that they are seemingly unable to develop players through the minor league system who do not strike out all the time or exercise much plate discipline? I know this is a problem throughout baseball, but, geez, isn't there anyone down there who knows a strike from a ball?
There is quite a litany here of failures in this respect going back to Tyler Colvin and Brett Jackson. Junior Lake, Mike Olt... Even Alcantara is pushing a 30% rate though he does take walks. It is simply the case that teams that strike out that often and do not take walks do not win consistently.
Anyway, I'm of two minds on the issue as well. On the one hand, I would like to see the kid succeed, and I do see the makings of a really talented hitter somewhere in there, at least a guy with enormous power potential.
On the other hand, however, there is the just simply out-of-control play, even in the field. Baez just simply strikes out too often, and if he continues to do so, I wonder whether he can ever become a real star on a winning team. The sobering thing is that not only does he strike out about a quarter of the time, but his strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 21% in 2012 to 26% in 2013 to 30% this season before the promotion.
Right now he looks over-matched by major league pitching, despite the three home runs and the respectable average. Ten Ks in 23 ABs is just awful. The thing is that you don't have to offer at every pitch. When Baez settled down in the AB in which he doubled yesterday, he made the pitcher throw a strike. Right now no pitcher in his right mind should throw him a strike.
On a deeper level, I wonder what is it about this organization that they are seemingly unable to develop players through the minor league system who do not strike out all the time or exercise much plate discipline? I know this is a problem throughout baseball, but, geez, isn't there anyone down there who knows a strike from a ball?
There is quite a litany here of failures in this respect going back to Tyler Colvin and Brett Jackson. Junior Lake, Mike Olt... Even Alcantara is pushing a 30% rate though he does take walks. It is simply the case that teams that strike out that often and do not take walks do not win consistently.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Hamels
Looks like the Hamels deal is over. The Phillies have reportedly pulled their ace back after failing to reach a deal with the Cubs. Supposedly they wanted Addison Russell.
I'm not sure this is a good move for the Cubs as they really do not need another shortstop prospect and they do need an ace pitcher. If the Cubs are genuinely in the market for an ace in the free agent market, three guys will be around: Scherzer, Shields, and Lester.
Good luck with that, though. These guys are going to cost big bucks, probably more than Hamels. A while ago I read a piece in Fangraphs that concluded that the offer the Cubs made Samardzija was a fair one based on the metrics anyway. The problem is the market values pitchers of this sort - and by no means is Samardzija in that elite company yet - about 20% higher.
In terms of the Baez watch, what can you say? He hit two more homers yesterday in Colorado. Likely he is the real deal and paired up with Bryant, who has always looked like the better of the two in terms of discipline and consistency, the Cubs should have a formidable lineup next season, a lineup at least that is going to score some runs for a change.
Look for the league to catch up with Baez for a while anyway once they figure out how to pitch to his weaknesses.
I'm not sure this is a good move for the Cubs as they really do not need another shortstop prospect and they do need an ace pitcher. If the Cubs are genuinely in the market for an ace in the free agent market, three guys will be around: Scherzer, Shields, and Lester.
Good luck with that, though. These guys are going to cost big bucks, probably more than Hamels. A while ago I read a piece in Fangraphs that concluded that the offer the Cubs made Samardzija was a fair one based on the metrics anyway. The problem is the market values pitchers of this sort - and by no means is Samardzija in that elite company yet - about 20% higher.
In terms of the Baez watch, what can you say? He hit two more homers yesterday in Colorado. Likely he is the real deal and paired up with Bryant, who has always looked like the better of the two in terms of discipline and consistency, the Cubs should have a formidable lineup next season, a lineup at least that is going to score some runs for a change.
Look for the league to catch up with Baez for a while anyway once they figure out how to pitch to his weaknesses.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Curious Rumors
Word is that in addition to claiming the heretofore disappointing Jacob Turner on waivers from the Marlins, the Cubs are also the mystery team to have made a bid for Phillies ace Cole Hamels.
The Turner thing is pretty low risk. Turner was a highly regarded prospect and the keystone in the trade that brought Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers. So far Turner has shown very little but he is worth a low-cost risk.
The Hamels deal is really intriguing. Hamels is a genuine proven ace, 30 years old, but under team control through 2018, admittedly at a cost of $96MM. The Cubs would have to part with some major talent to complete the deal, something at least on the scale of what they got for Samardzija.
When you think of it, though, it might be the shot in the arm the team needs if management genuinely believes the arrival of several prospects points to an upward trend for the major league franchise. Hamels would cost roughly as much as the Cub had offered Samardzija, so giving up a prospect package equivalent to the ones they received from the A's would amount to trading Hamels for Samardzija. As much as I had grown to like Samardzija, Hamels is no doubt the better player and the cheaper one as well.
So you have to ask yourself, would you trade Samardzija straight up for Hamels? The answer has to be yes.
On the Baez watch, 0 for 4.
The Turner thing is pretty low risk. Turner was a highly regarded prospect and the keystone in the trade that brought Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers. So far Turner has shown very little but he is worth a low-cost risk.
The Hamels deal is really intriguing. Hamels is a genuine proven ace, 30 years old, but under team control through 2018, admittedly at a cost of $96MM. The Cubs would have to part with some major talent to complete the deal, something at least on the scale of what they got for Samardzija.
When you think of it, though, it might be the shot in the arm the team needs if management genuinely believes the arrival of several prospects points to an upward trend for the major league franchise. Hamels would cost roughly as much as the Cub had offered Samardzija, so giving up a prospect package equivalent to the ones they received from the A's would amount to trading Hamels for Samardzija. As much as I had grown to like Samardzija, Hamels is no doubt the better player and the cheaper one as well.
So you have to ask yourself, would you trade Samardzija straight up for Hamels? The answer has to be yes.
On the Baez watch, 0 for 4.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Javier Baez
Javier Baez made his long-awaited major league debut last night. His long home run in the top of the 11th inning won the game for the Cubs.
I must say that when he connects he can hit the ball very hard and quite a long way. That said, it looks as if he has a bit of growing to do. JD remarked that the kid has some holes in his swing. The biggest seems to be a proclivity to swing at higher than high fastballs, which led to three strikeouts in his first game.
Also, he botched up a play in the bottom of the 10th that led to the Rockies tying the game up after the Cubs had scored a run in the top of the inning to take the lead.
Still, one game is not a career and the above observations are not meant to detract from an ultimately stellar start.
The Cubs are showing unusual patience at the plate lately, which is leading in part to the success they have enjoyed, at least against the Rockies this past week or so. Six walks in an inning. That hasn't happened since 2007-2008 for this team. Either that or the Rockies bullpen is so wild, it is hard to even think about swinging away.
I must say that when he connects he can hit the ball very hard and quite a long way. That said, it looks as if he has a bit of growing to do. JD remarked that the kid has some holes in his swing. The biggest seems to be a proclivity to swing at higher than high fastballs, which led to three strikeouts in his first game.
Also, he botched up a play in the bottom of the 10th that led to the Rockies tying the game up after the Cubs had scored a run in the top of the inning to take the lead.
Still, one game is not a career and the above observations are not meant to detract from an ultimately stellar start.
The Cubs are showing unusual patience at the plate lately, which is leading in part to the success they have enjoyed, at least against the Rockies this past week or so. Six walks in an inning. That hasn't happened since 2007-2008 for this team. Either that or the Rockies bullpen is so wild, it is hard to even think about swinging away.
Monday, August 4, 2014
Recent Days
After starting out the home stand losing four of six, the Cubs came back to even things out at 5-5, besting the woeful Rockies in three of four games.
Those games were hard to watch. I mean it was difficult to imagine any circumstances under which either team might score or do something interesting.
Oddly enough, the Cubs came back take two out of three from the hot Dodgers in LA. They might have swept had they not allowed the useless Blake Parker to pitch a second inning of relief Saturday night. One conclusion from the recent stretch of games is that Kyle Hendricks is definitely a keeper.
As far as the trade deadline transactions, I was glad to see Bonafacio traded. I always thought he was both streaky and over-rated, especially as a lead-off hitter. The Cubs wound up trading away Samardzija, Hammel, Russell, Bonafacio, Barney, and a PTBNL for two struggling starters and three highly-rated prospects who are still a long way from the big leagues. One of the starters landed on the DL the day after he reported.
On the bright side, the Cubs are calling up Baez. Presumably to play 2B with Alcantara moving to CF. Also, after trading away roughly a dozen major league starters over the past three summers, Jed Hoyer announced that the team's top project over the winter was getting some major league pitchers, guys who are likely to cost big bucks, as Samardzija will when he becomes a free agent, or require the Cubs to trade away some serious prospects, but, hey, that's the way it is when you play Theo-ball.
The odd thing is that no one seems to notice the inherent contradictions in the rebuilding approach and that the one consistent principle is they are really cheap and really stubborn.
Those games were hard to watch. I mean it was difficult to imagine any circumstances under which either team might score or do something interesting.
Oddly enough, the Cubs came back take two out of three from the hot Dodgers in LA. They might have swept had they not allowed the useless Blake Parker to pitch a second inning of relief Saturday night. One conclusion from the recent stretch of games is that Kyle Hendricks is definitely a keeper.
As far as the trade deadline transactions, I was glad to see Bonafacio traded. I always thought he was both streaky and over-rated, especially as a lead-off hitter. The Cubs wound up trading away Samardzija, Hammel, Russell, Bonafacio, Barney, and a PTBNL for two struggling starters and three highly-rated prospects who are still a long way from the big leagues. One of the starters landed on the DL the day after he reported.
On the bright side, the Cubs are calling up Baez. Presumably to play 2B with Alcantara moving to CF. Also, after trading away roughly a dozen major league starters over the past three summers, Jed Hoyer announced that the team's top project over the winter was getting some major league pitchers, guys who are likely to cost big bucks, as Samardzija will when he becomes a free agent, or require the Cubs to trade away some serious prospects, but, hey, that's the way it is when you play Theo-ball.
The odd thing is that no one seems to notice the inherent contradictions in the rebuilding approach and that the one consistent principle is they are really cheap and really stubborn.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)