Thursday, April 28, 2011

Some Pretty Bad Baseball

The last two games on the homestand were examples of badly played games. In the Monday game against Colorado, the Cubs managed to waste Matt Garza's best start of the season, making four errors and allowing four unearned runs on the way to a 5-4 loss. Fukudome went 5 for 5 and, along with Castro and Barney, remains the only professional hitter on the team to date.

Fukudome was promptly benched the next day when the Cubs suffered a 4-3 loss behind James Russell. Russell got hammered for sure, but the bullpen wasn't bad and the Cubs wasted all sorts of opportunities, 8 hits but no walks, which is a key stat so far. Byrd continued his stellar performance in the three hole, 0 for 4, 3 strikeouts, 4 men left on base.

Everybody blames the pitching, and for sure the starters have been inconsistent and the injuries have hurt, but the bullpen has been solid and except when Dempster or Russell pitches, the Cubs have been in the game. They just don't seem to be able to hit, to have professional at-bats that work the count and put them in a position to deliver. In this respect they are a lot like the unsuccessful teams of the past two years.

I saw a statistic somewhere where Colvin, Pena, Byrd, and Soriano were hitting a combined .150 or something with men on base. Not an auspicious beginning for a team that needs to hang on for dear life until they get their rotation in order.

Thursday's game against the Diamondbacks was just plain awful as well, though little can be expected when your starter gives up 7 runs in the first inning. I'm beginning to think that something is wrong with Dempster and maybe he is not being honest with his teammates or Cubs management. He is starting to look like the Dempster the Cubs had before they moved him into the closer role in 2005 and he certainly does not look like the pitcher who had a breakout year in 2008.

Monday, April 25, 2011

The Dodgers Series

Sad to report, there were few signs of life in the weekend series with the Dodgers. The Cubs starting pitching was not very good. Coleman and Dempster were awful. Zambrano had a really rough first inning and never seemed to settle down even though he held the Dodgers in check after the rough beginning.

Even though their starting pitching has been indifferent on the home stand, what is really hurting the team is that they do not match up very well against right-handed pitching. On this score, it is no accident that they were able to get ahead of the left-hander Lilly and so keep themselves in the game even after Dempster blew a four run lead.

There is no better illustration of this issue than the first inning of the Sunday game against LA. After giving up five runs in the top of the inning, the Cubs got the first three batters on base and managed to score a run. Kuroda got Ramirez out, but Pena came through for a change to drive in the second run.

All of these were good quality at-bats with the possible exception of Ramirez, who got himself out on a bad pitch. After that it was all downhill. Byrd and Soriano just do not match up well against quality right-handers and, of course, they are too aggressive in the process. End result, two runners left on base and game essentially over.

I'm not sure what the answer for Quade is to this problem. Playing Fukudome, Barney, and Castro at the top is a start. Batting Byrd and Soriano in tandem near the bottom is not productive. One of these guys has to sit for Colvin even though Colvin is not producing.

That being said, and given their injury issues, and the atrocious weather conditions, the Cubs are doing surprisingly well to be hanging around the .500 mark. They need to shake things up, however, and it is hard to see how they can do so with the present personnel.

Look for them to bring up Brett Jackson more or less in the same way they tabbed Starlin Castro last year. If they do so and he is ready - and I really hope he is - they are going to have to trade Byrd or Soriano, most likely Byrd just to make room. That's not a bad strategy anyway.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Cubs Split, Gain Tie for First

It is some measure of the mediocrity of this division, accurately predicted in these pages, that despite some decidedly ordinary play and despite losing at least three or four games they should have easily won, the Cubs find themselves in a four way tie for first place in the NL Central.

I suppose there is both a good and a bad side to this development in that it demonstrates both what might have been achieved by just a few good bounces and solid decisions and that despite some injury setbacks and slowish starts, the team is still competitive.

Anyway, the Cubs continued to get good pitching yesterday except from Russell who really is over-matched right now as a starting pitcher. The Cubs are going to have to find someone else to pick up these starts as Wells is probably two to three weeks from returning to the rotation and Cashner is likely another week or two off from that. Cashner's return is not such a worry because it looks like Coleman can keep them in the games he starts and actually do pretty well.

Garza finally pitched a decent game, admittedly under pitcher's conditions on Wednesday. The Cubs continued their struggles to score runs against good right-handed pitchers with solid stuff who change speeds. They left a ton of guys on base until Reed Johnson ended the day with an unexpected home run to lead off the tenth inning.

Samardzija has pitched reasonably well over his last three appearances, though he is painful to watch even when he gets outs. They should definitely not turn to this guy as a spot starter. On the other hand, there is not much at AAA to get very excited about.

In the nightcap, Johnson again provided some pop, but unfortunately was caught up by an excess of enthusiasm after hitting a run scoring double and got himself thrown out at third base trying to stretch it to a triple. The base-running gaffe cost the Cubs a chance in the game as it was followed by consecutive solid hits by Baker, Fukudome, and Barney. I was listening to part of the game on radio and Keith Moreland would not give this up, returning again and again to how dumb the play was and what was he thinking, etc. This was Moreland's inning to do play-by-play. It was kind of refreshing to hear someone call it that way. I wonder how long it will last until somebody in the front office tells him to cut it out.

I liked the Cubs lineup in the second game with the exception of Johnson's start in center, which I rather thought given the Padres right-handed pitching both among starters and relievers ought to have gone to Colvin. Quade should give this alignment a chance over a couple of games even though Castro had a bad day at the plate and on defense. It ought to produce runs in the long run and at least it gives the Cubs professional at-bats really one through five.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

A Great Game and Some Catching Up

Sorry I have not been keeping up with this blog too regularly. I have instead been posting a lot at Bleacher Report. My latest article there sums up the first twelve games of the season. I wouldn't change much in describing the Rockies series, another one where they should have taken two of three.

Some conclusions still stand out:

1. This team has a hard time scoring runs. Part of that is inherent in the players they have, a lot derives from the batting order, especially the insistence on batting Marlon Byrd third and playing him everyday. Glad to see that Hendry even may be coming around to the view often expressed here that the best batting order right now features Fukudome leading off, Barney second, and Castro third. Now to get Colvin some playing time at the expense of Byrd and Soriano.

2. Notwithstanding the slow starts of Garza and Dempster and the injuries to Wells and Cashner, there is really nothing terribly wrong with their pitching. Coleman has filled in nicely. I think they will be OK once they get at least one of the injured kids back in the rotation.

3. The real defensive issue with this team is the weakness of their outfield defense and its lack of range. Fukudome is the only professional outfielder they have. Byrd would be better playing left field, especially in the bigger ballparks like Coors Field. Colvin has speed but lacks experience and some other skills that hopefully he can develop over time. His natural position is probably left field. Soriano just stinks in the outfield and there is nothing you can do about it.

4. The Cubs are going to need some production from left-handed hitters other than Fukudome to win consistently. Colvin and Pena have got to pick it up. Otherwise, notwithstanding the heroics of Castro and the steady performance of Barney and Ramirez, they have a pretty one-dimensional offense.

As to last night's game, it was, for me at least, a joy to watch. I have to confess I love these scoreless pitchers' duels and last night's was terrific. The weather surely had something to do with it, but Zambrano pitched a great game. Brenly said early on that a mistake would decide the game. In this case, the Cubs finally caught some breaks. Soto hit a sure double play ball after Fukudome walked, but Hudson messed it up. Colvin got the only really solid hit of the night and he picked the right time to do it, though I'm pretty sure Soto would not have scored if the relay throw had been accurate.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

The First Homestand: An Honest Assessment

The Cubs just finished up the first two home series against arguably the two worst teams in the National League even up at 3-3. They should certainly have gone 4-2 against these teams, and probably 5-1. Not a cause for panic, but still a disturbing sign.

Pitching has not been the problem so much as scoring runs, which has been the problem perennially for this franchise. The Cubs achieved four quality starts from their five starters, the only bad outings being from their supposed ace Ryan Dempster.

Unfortunately, the Cubs have lost their four and five starters, Wells and Cashner, who were actually the most impressive of the starting rotation in its first cycle, to what one hopes are minor injuries, for at least one month. In their absence, the Cubs are likely to bring up Casey Coleman to become the fourth starter and to use James Russell as a spot starter, at least through the month of April when there are still a few off-days to lessen the blow.

The back end of the Cubs bullpen is outstanding and really held its own but for one lapse by Carlos Marmol in the final game of the Pirates series. What Mike Quade is finding out, though, is the unfortunate truth that he cannot use Marshall, Wood, and Marmol in tandem every day, and that once he gets past them, there isn't a whole lot he can count on.

Mateo and Russell will get you some outs, though you wish they were more consistent. Grabow and Samardzija are awful, especially Samardzija. I defy anyone to provide a logical reason this guy is "pitching" in the major leagues and why he was not waived at the end of spring training. And don't tell me you would risk losing him. Actually, having him claimed would be doing the Cubs a favor, but no one wants him at his salary, so how come he is still here? You would hope that sooner rather than later they would pull the plug on Samardzija.

Lets not kid ourselves about the reason that this is a .500 team so far against the weakest opponents you could possibly imagine. I hate to seem like a broken record, but so far the season has exposed the inherent weaknesses of this lineup and of the decisions the Cubs have usually made.

Whether these decisions are the result of simple inattention or the inability to read and interpret basic statistics, who knows? So much of the Cubs strategy and deployment of personnel looks and feels like a holdover from previous seasons. I have to admit this was one of my worst fears when they chose Quade to be the manager. Too much of a continuation of the old tradition, not exactly a fresh set of eyes or a fresh approach.

If you don't want to accept this premise, I urge you to think of another team that would platoon two left-handed hitters in right field when there are two right-handed hitters playing center and left who do not hit right-handed pitching consistently. And what other team would "platoon" two right-handed hitters at second base?

And, come to think of it, what team would profess to be searching for a lead off hitter when their obvious choice, Kosuke Fukudome, has a .528 OBP so far and, given his performance in three previous seasons, should be called "Mr. April"? Last night in Milwaukee, Tyler Colvin looked lost against the lefty Wolff, and he has only two hits all year. The Baker platoon looked good, though I still doubt that he should be leading off.

The other realization I took away from the first two series, and which was confirmed last night in Milwaukee, is just how bad the Cubs outfield is defensively, with the exception of right field. It is not just the errors and misjudged balls by Soriano, although they contributed heavily to the Wednesday loss and he continued the trend by goofing up a little flare last night. These guys in center and left field have limited range. It is hard to judge outfield play on TV, but it just seemed to me that the Pirates and Diamondbacks outfielders, with the exception of right field, were consistently running down drives in the alleys when the Cubs were letting them drop for extra bases.

This is going to be a problem for the Cubs and Mike Quade as the season progresses and another reason to give Colvin playing time in left and occasionally center field until better alternatives become available. The Cubs match up a lot better defensively against the Brewers, which was also evident last night. Ryan Braun is arguably in his own fashion as much of a liability as Soriano and the rest of their guys aren't a whole lot better, so look for hits to fall this weekend like raindrops at Miller Field.

For the future, or actually for the month of April, the Cubs play against a pretty weak schedule. They are fortunate this is so. Without Wells and Cashner, they are going to need long outings from the top three to prevent a real collapse of the bullpen. If they come out of this stretch with their rotation back in order playing .500 ball, they can stay in contention.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

It Is the Lineup, Stupid!

I know I must sound like a broken record here, but you have got to question some of these lineups that the Cubs are putting out there and we have only played three games.

No better illustration of the points I have made in earlier posts can be had than the bottom of the ninth today. The Cubs had blown a one-run lead coming into the frame. The Pirates had inserted their closer, the right-handed Hanrahan to face a string of right-handed hitters beginning in the ninth spot where Reed Johnson had been inserted in the previous inning as a defensive move to replace Soriano as part of a double switch. The unbroken string of righties stretched all the way down to the fifth spot of the order occupied by Carlos Pena.

So the chances of pulling this one out are pretty slim unless you make some moves, right? Wrong, the Cubs and everyone else must know that Johnson, even when he was a decent player two years ago, is really hopeless against right-handers, and, of course, Quade has Fukudome and DeWitt available on the bench, so the obvious move is to let Johnson strike out to start the inning.

Castro then came up and singled. Castro had a pretty spectacular day that was only marred by an overly enthusiastic throw in the top of the ninth that wound up costing the Cubs a run. Not to worry because up next is Darwin Barney, who was born to bat eighth but for some unaccountable reason is batting second today. Barney tries his best to end the game with a double play ball, but it is hit too slowly and Cedeno comes to the rescue by throwing to the wrong base over the head of the second baseman to put runners on first and third.

The Pirates best efforts to blow the game were to no avail, though, because our valiant #3 hitter, Marlon Byrd, who has never seen a first pitch he didn't like, magically came through with a perfect double play ball to end everyone's misery once and for all.

Lost in the muddle of the final two innings was a decent performance by Matt Garza who, despite striking out 12 batters and giving up 12 hits, left after seven innings having thrown only 106 pitches. Starlin Castro had two triples, a single and a walk, but, again illustrating my point about the deficiencies of the Cubs batting order, scored only one run.

For some unaccountable reason, Tyler Colvin started in right field and batted eighth, with Kosuke Fukudome, who has an OPS in April of over 1000, riding the pines even though the Pirates starter has never been able to throw strikes. With Byrd off to a bad start and woefully overrated as a player as well, Colvin should be in center field against right-handers.

Lets face facts here, with the exception of a single inning on Saturday, the Cubs are playing bad baseball in nearly every facet of the game except pitching. So are the Pirates. In fact, they played even worse baseball than the Cubs. But the Pirates are 2-1 and the Cubs are 1-2.

I'm not saying the Cubs have a great team or a really bad team. But you can field a team that maximizes your chances of winning and put them in a batting order that makes sense. This is something the Cubs have not done, and seemingly have no intention of doing.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

A Good Inning

The Cubs finally managed to break through for a big inning to pull out a 5-3 victory.

Some of my early game notes: Can't these guys take a pitch? Do they have to pull everything? Zambrano saw more pitches in the third inning at bat when he eventually doubled than the entire team saw in the first two innings. What kind of platoon system uses two right-handed hitters at second base and two left-handed hitters in right field?

On the plus side, Carlos Zambrano turned in a quality start and kept the team in the game before he gave way to a cramp in his throwing hand. The back end of the bullpen - Wood, Marshall, Marmol - was impressive.

Quade finally pinch hit for Baker when the Pirates brought in the right-handed Meeks in relief. Fukudome demonstrated once again that it is possible to take three sliders that are a foot out of the strike zone without swinging at even one of them. His patience resulted in a base on balls that ignited the Cubs rally. The Cubs were fortunate to collect a wild pitch to put him in scoring position before Castro's double and lucky again to score the second run on a Byrd grounder that Overbay misplayed.

After Soto sandwiched a hit between two unproductive at-bats by Ramirez and Pena, Soriano displayed unanticipated patience that finally resulted in a game-tying single. Patience and a thoughtful approach spread even to the free-swinging Colvin who took a walk before DeWitt delivered the winning hit, an opposite field double just over the Pirates infield down the left-field line.

All in all, a refreshing change to what was shaping up as a frustrating day. Hopefully these guys will continue to play real baseball tomorrow.

Friday, April 1, 2011

A Bad Start

Dempster pitched well the first time through the order. After that he started getting the ball up and his lack of command caught up with him in the fifth when he got behind nearly every hitter, walked two guys, and ultimately served up a grand slam to Neil Walker on a 3-2 pitch.

From my observations of Dempster, when he loses command he rarely gets it back and he starts throwing gopher balls. He should never have been allowed to start the seventh inning. There is a big difference between a 4-2 and a 6-2 lead, and the last home run pretty much put the game out of reach.

That having been said, the kid Castro put on quite a show defensively. It is a good thing he did, as the score might easily have been 10-3. Pena looked good at first base and between them they kept the team in the game.

The Pirates, on the other hand, played awful baseball defensively. They were charged with only one error, which led to the Cubs first run, but they messed up several double plays and muffed a handful or pop flies. They made every effort to give the Cubs the game, but to no avail. The Cubs were determined not to take it.

To me the big lesson from the game is the lineup, which I have criticized all through spring training. These guys are going to have a hard time scoring against right-handed pitching no matter how many men they get on base.

Today they had something like 14 base-runners between 11 hits, 2 walks, and an error. The leadoff hitter Fukudome reached three times on two hits and a walk and the #2 hitter Castro had three hits, but they scored only twice between them. Byrd stranded four runners and Ramirez, despite getting two hits, left five.

Against righties, the Cubs need to break up the string of right-handed hitters and they need to get Colvin's bat in the lineup to replace either Soriano or Byrd on a regular basis. I can tolerate Byrd in the three hole against lefties, but he is a rally killer any other time.

Kind of sad to see Quade's post-game interview. He looked and sounded like Lou Piniella already. Hey, it really is only one game, though these guys look so bad against the Pirates, a truly worthless collection of mopes with the exception of Walker and McCutchen, it really makes you wonder.

Opening Day Lineup

In keeping with our earlier comments on the Cubs lineup, there are few surprises here, and several issues. This lineup is for a right-handed Pittsburgh starter, but it may as well be an everyday lineup and it is likely to be so in the short run.

No problem with Fukudome and Castro batting first and second. Byrd is a problem in the three hole and will be over the long haul against right-handers. Ramirez and Pena are no surprise, nor is Soto in the sixth slot. A little surprising to see Soriano batting seventh, but that is where he belongs. Actually he belongs in the dugout against righties, but that is a bit more to hope for at this stage of the season. Barney is kind of a surprise starter though he hit well in spring training. It looks as if Baker will "platoon" with him at second base, though it is weird in itself to have a righty-righty platoon.

This lineup is short at least one and really two left-handed batters, so it will be interesting to see if they can generate runs. They ought to be good enough to beat the Pirates, but you never know. Last year the Pirates killed them.