The Lilly Trade

I've got to say I like this deal at first glance. First off, the Cubs save some money this year even though they had to subsidize both Lilly's and Theriot's contracts for the balance of this year, and, of course, next year you save what you would have had to pay them, which is around $13 million or so. Just on paper, leaving Lilly aside, you are trading one somewhat disappointing player for another in the Theriot for DeWitt swap. But bear in mind that Theriot is on the downside of his performance, having forgotten how to play intelligently both at the plate and in the field and he seems to be grousing about having lost his arbitration case and having to change positions to accommodate Castro.

All in all, DeWitt has more upside. He is having a better season, is a better infielder, and, by all accounts, has great fundamentals as a batter even though he has not hit up to his potential. He is also a left-handed hitter, which helps because the Cubs need to get more left-handed and there are not many positions where that is an option for them, the primary one, naturally, being first base.

Wallach may be the sleeper in this deal. He is considered a good prospect and has excellent numbers pitching in A ball. A few years away from the majors, but he would bear watching. Smit, the other pitcher, is a reliever of indifferent status who is probably a throw-in.

The question of who replaces Lilly in the rotation is an interesting one. Logically, it is Zambrano, but, by all accounts, Z is a ways away from being ready to start, having been out of live action for more than a month and having, from the scouting reports, lost a bit off his fastball and command in the interim. He might need conditioning to get ready to start and it is rather a pity the Cubs did not follow a different course, knowing as they must have done that they were going to unload Lilly. Lilly's departure creates a roster opening, so they will definitely bring someone up, maybe a AAA starter just to get a look in the interim. The other option would be to start Cashner, who was a starter in AA and AAA and should have been allowed to continue his development there, in my opinion. But Cashner's confidence is shot right now and he has been used nearly every day by Piniella and shortened up in the process, becoming this year's Jeff Samardzija.

Look, What Can You Say?

About tonight's disaster, the less said the better. It is hard to figure what there is to like about the Cubs new everyday lineup, which is almost exclusively right-handed and never scores many runs even against left-handers. Tonight they managed four hits against a lefty who is really going through an extended rehab assignment in the major leagues after missing last season due to elbow surgery. He must have looked like Sandy Koufax to the Cubs.

As far as trade talk goes, it is rumored the Cubs are close to a deal that would send Ted Lilly to the Dodgers and maybe Ryan Theriot as well. No word on who they might receive in return. An alternative rumor has Theriot going to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Kelly Johnson. I kind of like the Diamondbacks deal. Johnson looks like an average infielder, but he does bat left-handed and he has some pop even though, like most of the Diamondbacks, he strikes out a lot. Maybe not a long-term solution, but it is hard to compare the deals without knowing who the Dodgers have offered. The Cubs are through this season for sure, so I'm not sure whether the quick fix in Johnson is really what they need. Too bad the Lilly for Happ deal was a false rumor. The Astros got much the best of this deal, as was demonstrated by their respective performances tonight.

I cannot get over the feeling that Lee's veto of the Angels trade has pretty much nixed the Cubs trade deadline plans. I think I have a feeling for how these guys think now, and even though the Cubs are a giant money-making machine, they are still looking at the total payroll as some kind of limit and they are unwilling to make deals that cost them cash. They much prefer deals like the Bradley/Silva swap that actually saved them money and turned out unaccountably to yield a useful enough pitcher in return. So if you look at it from this point of view, the Cubs had three contracts to unload for players in their free agent years (Lilly, Lee, and Nady). Dumping them would have saved $10 or $12 million right now and that money might have been used to subsidize another deal that rid them of what they perceive as a toxic contract without increasing payroll for this season. Lee's action pretty much squelches that idea and the Cubs have no Plan B.

I happen to think that dumping Zambrano and Fukudome is pretty much impossible anyway, and I am not so sure it is all that desirable. I'd love to see them dump Soriano, but if I am right, the likelihood of any of this occurring is pretty much nil. If you want more evidence the Cubs still think small time, notice that Nady hardly ever plays anymore. That's because they have concluded he is worthless, but he has a lot of incentives based on games played and ABs and the Cubs are too cheap to risk any of them kicking in.

The Houston Series/Trade Talk

As for the Houston series, what can you say, more of the same, which is to say more dumb moves by Piniella, more sloppy, indifferent play, less clutch hitting or any hitting at all in most cases. The Cubs won the first game in high style facing essentially a left-handed AAA middle reliever. These are the sorts of guys Soriano feasts on and uses to build up his stats. He did not disappoint. In the second game the Cubs faced Brett Myers, Houston's second best pitcher next to Oswalt, but really not any great shakes. He seems, however, to have the whammy on the Cubs for sure, dominating them for the second time in a week. For some reason, Lou trotted out what has become his everyday lineup, rain or shine, righty or lefty. This lineup is Colvin leading off and all right-handed hitters from there on out (in this case, however, Hill replaced the injured Soto).

Anyway, why you would start this lineup against a right-hander who dominated the same lineup a week before is baffling. The game was a pitchers' duel until Lilly weakened in the sixth, but still winnable before Lou unaccountably left Cashner in long enough to give up a grand slam to Berkman after demonstrating to everyone but Lou that he had no command. The problem I have with not making a clean break with Piniella when he announced his retirement is this, you can do a lot of damage to players in two or three months, especially young players like Cashner, for example.

Today, even though the Cubs have an off-day coming up on Thursday, Lou decided to rest four regulars. I don't mind resting a few players, but I rather thought the idea was to win two of every three games through the rest of the season and playing against a genuinely mediocre pitcher might have merited a greater effort. Anyway, they left nine men on base, going 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Wells pitched very well until he lost it in the sixth. Again still a winnable game, but Piniella went to Schlitter and Howry to finish things off, so five runs later, it was 8-1.

Now in and of themselves, different decisions by Piniella might not have resulted in victories or even closer games, but there is no doubt that this is a mediocre team on the verge of becoming a really bad team and this is bound to have a deleterious effect on everyone around, especially the young players. You need to find out now also whether you have anybody at AAA who could move up next year to fill any openings you create by trades, for example, but the Cubs are rapidly reaching the point of a complete train wreck where any performance, positive or negative, through the remainder of the year is going to be suspect. The real point is this, that Piniella and the Cubs in general manage and act as if they were a genuine contender preparing for the long haul rather than a conglomeration of mismatched veterans and untried rookies hanging on for dear life to some measure of respectability.

Now, as to trade rumors. Apparently Derrick Lee has vetoed any possible trade, in this case a move to the Angels. My initial assessment is that although he has a right to do so, he is being both selfish and dumb. Selfish for obvious reasons, dumb because the only way he is going to get a good multi-year contract is to play well for a team that playing well for makes a difference. My own take on Lee as a player is that right now, and maybe for longer than people are willing to admit, he is an effective hitter only when he has Aramis Ramirez or someone of similar skills batting behind him. It is only then that he gets pitches he can hit. Dangling Lee means it is pretty certain the Cubs will not offer him another contract, so I have got to wonder what the payoff is for Lee to remain other than avoiding the necessity of moving twice in a single year. The Cubs should think about benching him anyway and getting a look at LaHair if they can clear a roster spot.

The other good trade rumor has been Lilly for the Phillies' lefty J.A. Happ. This is a no-brainer. Happ is 28 years old and is already a better pitcher than Lilly. He throws harder and has better stuff. He had a minor elbow injury earlier this season, but he seems to be recovered. The Cubs should take this deal before the Phillies have time to think about it if there is any truth at all to the rumor.

A Really Tough Loss

The Cubs and Cardinals played a tense and entertaining game Sunday night, with the Cubs eventually losing 4-3 in 11 innings. The game could have gone either way and both teams missed many opportunities and played inconsistently, making spectacular plays and boneheaded errors. A sad end to a homestand on which the Cubs should have gone 8-2 but achieved only a 6-4 record. Losses like this hurt and they all add up.

One thing you will not read in the papers is that the key play of the game happened in the 6th inning when Alfonso Soriano hit a blooper to RF, watched it for a long time, didn't hustle, and therefore got only a single that sent Byrd to 3B with one out. I listened to the radio guys tonight because I can't stand the ESPN crew, and I have to say that Ron Santo had this play nailed. I guess even he is getting disgusted with this kind of play as he kept harping on it for several innings afterward. Good for Ron. First and third instead of second and third changed the entire inning, so that instead of having Carpenter on the ropes after breaking through in the 5th, the rally was quickly killed when Soto hit into a double play on a hard ground ball.

Maybe I am carping a little, but it seems to me Lou was out-managed again in the endgame. I know he doesn't trust his rookie relievers and so he was in a bad spot tonight, having used Cashner for two the night before, but he pretty much shot his wad with Marshall and Marmol in the 8th and 9th and it was not a smart decision to send Schlitter out for a second inning after he pitched out of trouble in the 10th.

Also, I have to question the wisdom of using Baker to pinch run for Soto in the bottom of the inning. I mean, you have to run for Soto in that spot, but Baker is the only legitimate RH pinch-hitter, and he is not exactly a base-stealing threat, so you might have kept him on the bench in case LaRussa warmed up a lefty to face Fukudome and Colvin. Then if Theriot doesn't get on, you have LaRussa thinking that if he goes to Reyes, the kind of lefty that Fukudome has trouble hitting, you could counter with Baker, who kills guys like Reyes. Either way, you have a chance to tie the game, but then Lou is Lou, which means he has a pretty short attention span these days.

Another Decent Game

These are the conditions the Cubs were built to play in, so it is nice to see them come through for a change. All in all, a good game, although some of the conditions led to sloppy play on both sides and some of the sloppy play for the Cubs had very little to do with the conditions. Namely, Theriot flubbing up the sure DP that cost them a run and made the game closer than it ought to have been.

Actually, Theriot had another awful day all around, losing a popup in the sun and getting picked off first base as well. Soriano had a bad day as well. His lack of hustle in the first inning on a bloop double was very apparent and he struck out three times. I don't like to harp on the negative, but little things cost teams wins in the long run. This was a one-run game that in the end could have gone either way.

Respecting Colvin, I rather though Piniella's remarks after the game were, for a change, pertinent observations. Basically, he said that he could become one hell of a player when he learned the strike zone. What I don't get is how leading off is going to help with that process. Anyway, he hit a home run again today to lead off, but I have to say that much of the Cubs resurgence, to my mind, has more to do with moving Castro up to the two spot, because this kid is on a tear right now.

Another observation about Colvin is that I think he is basically a left fielder. It is notoriously hard to play RF at Wrigley Field, especially in those early starting games when it is hot and windy. Colvin misplayed several balls hit in his direction today and the Cubs were fortunate they did not do a lot more damage. From my observations, I think Fukudome is one of the few players to have mastered that position in this ballpark, and that is one of the reasons I keep harping on the notion of getting him more playing time at the expense of Soriano who actually cannot play any position well.

Gorzelanny pitched pretty well given the conditions. He is a little wild for my taste, but, and I think I made this observation at the start of the year, he is a pretty good #5 starter.

Playing to the Competition?

It always seems to me that the Cubs, especially when they are mediocre, play to the competition. Yesterday was a case in point. A nearly perfectly played game on their part. Wind blowing out, so they got three home runs to account for four of the five runs. Their pitching held the slumping Cardinals in check, keeping them off balance most of the way. Granted the Cards pitcher was the hopeless Jeff Suppan, but still a nice game.

People are loving the Tyler Colvin leadoff experiment, but I am not that big a fan. To me, it is another indication that the Cubs in general have no idea what a leadoff hitter is supposed to do, which is to work the count and get on base, and put the pitcher on the defensive. I like Colvin as a player so far and I think he has a bright future, but right now he has an OBP of something like .314 and he hardly ever walks. So he's hit home runs to lead off the game and everybody thinks they have the reincarnation of Ricky Henderson or, dare I say it, Alfonso Soriano in his prime. Well, that's not the case, is it, and, geez, we spent years complaining about having a Soriano type leadoff man?

I mean, Soriano had blazing speed when he came up and was a dynamite base-stealer when he got on base, which was not often enough to keep him up there for Joe Torre who dropped him down into the 9-hole because he struck out so often. And Ricky Henderson happened to hit some leadoff homers but he also had an outlandish OBP. Colvin so far has not shown great patience as a hitter and he is not much of a base-stealer either, so the sooner they move this kid down in the order where he can hit for average and drive in runs the better.

The Houston Series and The Piniella Announcement

Which to discuss first. I guess Piniella. It does say a lot about how this organization stays the same the more it seems to change. First off, retaining Hendry is probably not the thing to do. Sure he has brought in a pretty decent minor league and scouting operation, but he is also responsible for a lot of dumb free agent signings and a lot of bad contracts. Now he will get a chance to find a new Lou Piniella. That has got to give one pause.

As for Lou, again what an odd thing to do, a kind of delayed resignation. Now I know Bobby Cox did the same thing in Atlanta, but he did it at the start of the year and he has been their manager for like a quarter of a century. Perhaps I am being a cynic, but, especially after watching old Lou's highly self-serving news conference, I just get the feeling all this is giving him a face-saving way out that doesn't much help the team. Either they are going to all get together and try to bring him out a winner or they are going to heave a great sigh of relief that they will not have this glowering old codger muttering to himself around much longer or they will start making off-season plans and continue to play the same mediocre in-and-out baseball they have played all year long. Odds favor the latter course.

In the Houston series, the observation that the Cubs needed to win every series ran into the usual obstacles reality tends to place before indifferent teams. They lost the first game largely because Carlos Silva had his second wretched start in a row. Lets hope he gets himself straightened out soon because now he is looking more like the guy we expected to see when we picked him up from Seattle.

In the second game, the Cubs walloped the Astros, largely behind the hitting of Aramis Ramirez and some great relief pitching by the the only three guys Piniella ever uses in a winnable game. Not so lucky on Wednesday though when we saw the return the team that habitually leaves runners on base in droves and goes into full panic mode at the plate whenever a runner reaches third base with less than two outs.

16 left on base. Not one but four chances to put the game away in the later innings. The base-running play by Castro might have been a season-changing effort, but, alas, even the guys who have been productive lately couldn't bring him home. Plenty of goats here, including Colvin, Fukudome, Soto, Ramirez, Soriano, etc. The Cubs seem to be democratic in the distribution of clutch-hitting failure. Still waiting for the hot streak.

People are going to blame Stevens, who does not appear to have consistent major league stuff, but it was really the insertion of "Home Run" Howry that made the difference. He put two men on with no one out. If Arizona releases a relief pitcher outright, this has got to say something. And, incidentally, Piniella managed the significant feat of running out of pitchers before he ran out of position players by using three pitchers to lose the game in the 12th and facing the embarrassment of warming up Friday's starter in the event Colvin's final out had fallen in to tie the game.

A Good Series

Lest we forget though, the Cubs put together quite a nice run last year right after the All-Star break only to fizzle in August. Can they come back? It's possible. They are playing now the way fans expected them to play, which is to say they will have games where they will just blow people out and games where their pitching will keep them in it and they will need a clutch hit or a little luck. I expected them to contend despite their obvious weaknesses. There are 69 games left. If the Cubs win two of three they will come out at 88 wins, good enough to contend in their division. Maybe good enough to win. If the Cards play at the same percentage as they currently hold, the Cubs will come up a game or two short. Still a chance there, but it all depends on playing .667 ball or better through the remainder of the year.

Should the Cubs sell? I think so. There are die-hard fans who will be deceived by any kind of consistent run through the end of July, but there are some clear weaknesses on this team and there is the odd chance they can be addressed by some judicious moves. The two biggest weaknesses are in management, namely Hendry and especially Lou. These are likely to be deferred to season's end.

Anyway, the biggest weaknesses as I see them are the bullpen, their lack of balance, and defense. These factors create problems for a team whose main strength is the depth and quality of their starting pitching. I'm not sure the bullpen is as big an issue as it it made out to be, but Lou clearly has confidence only in Marshall and Marmol and seems to be trying to develop Cashner into a pitcher that maybe he is not, much as he tried to mold Samardzija in 2008 and 2009. The Cubs weakest starter is clearly Ted Lilly. He is in the last year of his contract. He is getting old and he makes a lot of money. So save some cash and maybe get a prospect or two in return. He is likely a Type A free agent who should therefore bring the talent equivalent of a late first or early second round pick. The obvious move then is to move Zambrano back into the rotation. You have to face facts. You are not going to contend unless your opening day starter who has two plus years left on a $91 million contract produces and you are not going to shed any part of this contract unless he shows enough ability to tempt another team, so roll the dice.

The same thing goes for Lee. The Cubs have no obvious replacement unless they move Colvin to 1B, but Lee is a net negative for this club. He's still hitting in the .230s and it's time to face facts that this is not going to get better. He will have good games when he gets fast balls because he is hitting in front of a resurgent Ramirez with men on base, but he's not going to regain his previous skills. He is also playing like a guy who is hurt in the field, and he is another right-hander. Long and short term, this is a spot for a left-handed hitter and they need to acquire or develop one. If they trade Lee, I don't see why Hoffpauir or LaHair can't give you the same level of production batting from the left side. I mean, we are not talking about much more than hitting .250 and 8 or 10 HRs. LaHair is actually having a pretty good year at AAA the last time I looked.

Dumping Nady goes without saying, but the real guy who might be approaching some level of trade value if the Cubs are brave and the guy with the worst contract is Soriano. His numbers look good to the unobservant. Unless you are going to bite the bullet and do the statistically sound thing and platoon him with Fukudome, get rid of him and pay half his salary forever if you need to do so.

Last night was a great example of why he needs to go. Yeah, he hit a HR when the Cubs were already way ahead and he got a lucky bloop single, but, had the game not been a laugher, he made two key mistakes that might have cost the team dearly. On one, although everybody in the park is pointing to 2B, he came up with a routing single and fired past the third baseman, allowing the batter to advance to 2B and taking the team out of a DP situation. Then he stupidly tried to go first to third on a single and was thrown out by ten feet. This is just a really dumb guy who has no baseball instincts at all.

Theriot is the other guy who is becoming painful to watch. At least Lou has dropped him in the order yesterday, but watch for him to back up top against a lefty. Theriot is a certain out nowadays and a quick one at that. If there is a market for this player, trade him now. They can easily get by with the Fontenot/Baker platoon, and, of course, it is a net plus because it adds a left-handed bat.

The most important stretch of the schedule is coming up. They need to sweep Houston and take at least three of four against the Cardinals. They are playing well now for a change. This week will make or break them as a team.

A Really Bad Game All Around

Hard to imagine, but this game through six was a sloppily played scoreless pitcher's duel. Randy Wells, mostly due to sloppy play behind him and a couple of mistakes of his own, threw a lot of pitches and was constantly in trouble. The Phillies also helped out with some atrocious base-running. The Cubs, on the other hand, were able to create some scoring chances based on plate patience and some good ABs, but to no avail, due primarily to Lou's uncanny ability to place certain outs in key positions in the order, so that Hamel always seemed to be facing Wells or Theriot or Soriano when he got into a jam.

I have to confess my favorite moment of the game through six was seeing Soriano hit a lazy high flyball to CF and pause to admire it as if it were a home run. You have to watch this guy day in and day out to really appreciate what a lousy, clueless player he really is. If you go out to the park and see him in the outfield, take a few moments to see him intentionally avoiding even the most remote chance of taking a difficult chance, loping over lazily to get in front of Byrd or Colvin when they are running like maniacs after deep hits when he should be either making the play or backing them up. But the lazy fly was even more of a statement than the DP in his previous AB with no outs and runners at first and second or his strikeout in the 8th inning.

Watching the Phils is a bit like watching the Cubs in their worst stretches. Lots of dumb base-running. Oddly enough the turning points were a fairly lucky piece of base-running by Castro that allowed him to get to third base and later score on Theriot's squeeze bunt. But the Phillies got one back in the ninth when Schneider tried to score from second on a shallow single and should have been out but for Soto dropping the throw from Colvin.

I guess you can only go to the well so many times. Marmol was terribly wild and pretty much gave away the game. He's had these kinds of episodes before and somehow more often than not he can pitch out of them, but today he could not. My own observation is that if Marmol does not straighten himself out early on though, things just get worse, which was the case today in spades. One hopes this does not wreck his confidence.

Just as an aside, you often wonder if Soto can actually catch anything on a bounce, even pitches in the dirt. You also wonder if the Cubs can make that play ever with the pitcher covering first or is it just Lee making weird feeds and weirder decisions. Don't these guys ever practice, or maybe Zambrano was right. Who knows? Just unbelievable you could allow an infield hit to Raul Ibanez.

Well, what can you say, back to reality, back to mediocrity.

A Winning Streak?

It would be nice to see the Cubs put together a streak. At least there will be something to watch. The Cubs pounded Jamie Moyer and a succession of Phillies' relievers on Thursday night and put together a solid tight win on Friday. It should be noted though that Ramirez is really carrying this team. The Cubs used a typical formula for victory today, getting a good start from Lilly and being able to use Marshall and Marmol to sew up the victory. Ramirez was involved in all the runs, scoring on Lilly's bases loaded walk, scoring on Byrd's two-run HR, and finally hitting the game winner in the 8th. It does rather prove a point I have made in the past, namely that Ramirez is the heart of this team and if he doesn't hit or gets hurt, this team does not win.

I am somewhat torn in my enthusiasm for the Cubs' newly found spark and my desire to see the last of their dullard manager. Just a note. Is it possible to play more than one left-handed hitter against right-handed pitchers? I would think so. Now that Ramirez is on a tear, it was interesting to note that the top three in the order ahead of Ramirez went 0 for 12 and that the Cubs' slugger and only consistent RBI threat never came up with a man on base. Fukudome should platoon with Soriano and Fontenot should platoon with Theriot. Theriot should never bat higher than 8th in the order. I'm also beginning to notice some bad habits from Colvin in that he seems to be trying to hit for power every time he bats. This is one of the problems with having a manager who is a lazy thinker like Lou. Piniella notices home runs and guys get to play when they hit homers. It's one of the real problems with this team. Even when they are hitting well, they are swinging for the fences with men on base, so that in the end they look good on paper, but do not produce.

The Break

Lets get the last two games before the All-Star Game out of the way. They were pretty predictable. The Cubs won on Saturday, largely behind a solid offensive showing from the bottom of the order and a good day for Ramirez. It is important to note that the Cubs seem only to score enough runs when the bottom of the order produces. They are likely more often than not to win this kind of game, which has been rather a rarity this year. These guys seem to be the only ones on the team who occasionally remember how to actually play baseball.

On Sunday they lost. Silva didn't have it and probably should not have pitched. He got tossed anyway on a bad call on a play both he and Nady botched up. Nady had earlier botched up another play. This guy cannot play 1B nor should he bat in an RBI spot. He struck out twice Sunday and hit into a DP, stranding five baserunners. Texas is supposedly interested. Trade him before they change their mind.

As to the All-Star Game, Marlon Byrd played well. He made a nice alert throw in the 9th inning as well as coaxing a walk from Thornton in a very patient AB that helped set up the NL's winning rally in the 7th. I wonder why he is not so patient with the Cubs. He has been a pleasant surprise both at the plate and in the field, but my one knock on him is that he is a hacker who very rarely takes pitches and very rarely walks. The old adage in baseball has always been that a walk is as good as a hit, but I believe a walk is often better than a hit. Good teams take walks and work the count. The Cubs, with the exception of 2008, almost never hit intelligently.

Which brings me to the big topic of what is wrong with this team. Impatience and lack of concentration are big factors. If you look at last year, a very disappointing year, the Cubs won 83 games and finished over .500 for the third consecutive year. This was not what people expected, but given they played most of the season without any production at all from their corner outfielders and given miserable production from 2B and a down year from Soto and given that Ramirez spent a lot of time on the DL. it seems remarkable they achieved even this modicum of respectability. They owed a lot to their pitching, especially their starters, as Gregg was a disaster by mid-season as a closer.

Now this year anyway, Soriano, though a really awful LF has had a statistically improved season. Fukudome had a very productive two months before tailing off. Byrd has been, as noted above, a pleasant surprise, and Colvin has had a remarkable rookie year in limited play. Soto has also had a better year than last year, having sandwiched a good April and a good July around some mediocrity in between. True, Theriot has been genuinely awful and in some sort of funk since Castro came up, but Castro has played very well and so has Fontenot in limited duty. Lee has been a big factor in their decline. I have to say he is a net negative factor and if the Cubs can get something in return, they would be better served in letting him go even if they do not have a worthwhile replacement. This year is over anyway and there are likely to be half-a-dozen superstar 1Bs available as free agents next year.

There is no question Lee and Ramirez have been a factor in the Cubs lack of performance this year, but bear in mind Lee started very slowly last year and Ramirez missed two months last year as well, but the team was still competitive then even with the Bradley distraction. I've got to blame Piniella. It is the manager's job to set the tone for the team and to put together a team from whatever parts he has to add to the assembly. Lou hasn't done this and his managerial style has become more and more eccentric and unpredictable and sullen. Something has to change here. There are all kinds of rumors floating that Piniella is done and will be replaced shortly. Lets hope they are true and that we do not have to endure the presence of this overrated blowhard for another three months. At least we will have something entertaining to watch.

Another Dose of Reality

This team is really not competitive against the better performing teams. Despite making the game interesting in the end, the effort tonight was futile and pretty much reflects the team's performance for most of the year. Lilly was awful for the second straight start. I have always felt Lilly was very much overrated. When he is good, he can be quite good. When he is bad, well, you get what you got tonight. Lilly is at best a 4th or 5th man in the rotation and I really don't think he has ever been much more. Whoever picks him up is not getting a game changer.

The Cubs continue to play sloppy baseball. Witness the second inning when Lilly botched up a sacrifice and Fontenot, who for some reason was playing shortstop, bungled up a double play ball. They managed to strike out 13 times and walk only 3. I know the umpire was inconsistent, but Billingslea was not a strike machine either. Something gets into these guys with men on base, and it is not good. Theriot continues to swing at the first pitch no matter where it is and continues to kill rallies. Why does Lou like him at the top of the order? Who knows? He needs to bat 8th and he needs right now to platoon with Fontenot.

On the bright side, Ramirez looks like he is rounding into form and recovering from his injury. If this trend continues, they may expect to win occasionally when they do not get a superlative start and turn the game over to Marshall and Marmol. Maybe they can even hope to play .500 ball from here on out. Of course, they are still 11 games under .500 and best case scenario they can only hope to be 9 under at the break, so this doesn't really cut it.

Back to Reality

After three straight wins against the lowly Diamondbacks, the Cubs returned to old form against a tough lefty and the competitive LA Dodgers. I know I have said this many times in this blog, but this stupid platoon lineup against left-handed pitching doesn't score runs and doesn't play good baseball. Stupid base-running in the 3rd inning when Theriot was picked off and Byrd wandered off first after a bloop hit, but that wasn't the real issue. Kershaw has walked 50 batters in a little more than 100 innings, which means an average of four or more per game, but he sailed through eight innings this evening on less than 100 pitches and struck out 12. The human rally killer Xavier Nady struck out twice and hit into a double play to help things along. Wells pitched well, made one big mistake to Furcal, and took a tough loss. For some reason, Lou believes in this awful lineup. Another reason he needs to go.

Some interesting interviews. Maddox is quoted as saying the Zambrano deal is not a big thing, blown out of proportion, that he can square things with his teammates. This rather tells me that Z is going nowhere for now. The real question is whether he can square things with Piniellla, who seems to have decided to spend most of his time humiliating the testy fellow all season long.

On the Piniella front, Lou gave an interview basically saying his days as a manager are through and he is looking forward to retirement, can't motivate modern players, doesn't understand what is going on, etc., etc. Time for someone in ownership or upper management to tell him that now is the time to quit and just pay him off. Maybe this will happen. There seem to be signs the Cubs are going to start selling and that Ricketts is going to talk about the future of the team.

Of all the rumors, I still say the only serious ones are Lee, Lilly, Nady, and maybe Theriot, the first three because they are free agents next year anyway and Theriot because some contenders need an infielder because of injuries and he might help someone with a change of scene and being dropped to a more realistic place in the order. If you are going to try to move an albatross, Soriano might be worth a shot. To the uninformed, it looks as if he is having a decent year. An AL team could carry him.

Two Straight

Though perhaps we should temper our enthusiasm somewhat in that the Cubs are playing a really bad team in the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team which is on a pace to set some sort of unbreakable record for batters striking out and which actually has at least two hitters who are on a pace to strike out more than 200 times and likely more than a third of their plate appearances. Also, their bullpen is a joke and their closer is actually the Cubs reject Aaron Heilman who was only good enough for mop up duty with the Cubs last season.

But it was good to see Ramirez break out with two home runs and also good to see Fukudome lead off and show some pop as well. The Cubs played pretty well all in all. Theriot's attempt to stretch a double into a triple was another example of how a once heady player has degenerated. Not only was it the wrong thing to be thrown out at third base with no outs in a tie game, but he made the egregious mistake of turning around and looking back to see where the throw was when he was half-way to third base and absolutely committed to the attempt. Maybe it is quibbling, but this kind of thing seems to happen every day.

Another, maybe more serious quibble. Does anyone think that Lou has the look of a guy who is managing for his baseball life? He has determined that the only two people he trusts in the bullpen are Marshall and Marmol, but he seems intent on using them to cover the final three innings nearly every day. Between them today, they three 57 pitches over three innings, compared to Silva's 74.

Speaking of Piniella's strategy, you have to question removing Silva after six innings for a pinch hitter unless there was something wrong with him, which did not seem to be the case. Similarly, one must question not pinch hitting for Marshall in the 8th and passing on a chance to plate an insurance run. Dempster had better we ready to go nine tomorrow.

A Golden opportunity

I mean, the Cubs passed on a golden opportunity yesterday to fire Lou Piniella. The start of a West Coast trip leading to the All-Star break, another wretched and embarrassing loss. What more could you ask for?

As to the loss, it was, as Lou is fond of remarking, a close game until the 7th inning, actually until two outs in the 7th, and it was a winnable game for most teams playing at home, down two runs with the wind blowing out. Then the roof caved in. Apparently, no one awakened Piniella and alerted him to the fact that even though Lilly, who had incidentally pitched badly even to that point, was due to lead off the bottom of the inning, he was imploding and had to be pulled before the game got out of hand.

Four runs and several mammoth blasts later, with the score now 9-3, Lou summoned the energy to trudge to the mound and insert Stevens, who had pitched the equivalent of probably four or five innings whilst warming up all day long in the bullpen at various times. Stevens proceeded to face six Reds without retiring a single man and to allow four more runs before Lou inserted Howry to get the final out.

Now I understand that, having wrongly decided to leave Lilly in the game based on the fact he had only thrown 70 pitches or so to that point, Lou wanted to get him through the inning, but in the post-game, all he had to say was nonsense about saving the bullpen and blah, blah, blah, it is always about someone else being to blame for dumb, consistently dumb, decisions. At least be forthright and admit you screwed up. That's what really bugs people about this guy, me anyway, and one of the principal reasons he has got to go, the sooner the better. Just admit you blundered. You thought you could get through the inning with minimal use of the bullpen and as a result you screwed up and permitted the opponent to score eight runs, just as you did the same thing two days earlier and allowed them to score nine runs. To do this, however, you have to admit you are managing on auto-pilot, that you are looking at the pitch count and not actually watching the game.

Refreshingly, Brian Kush, in the Daily Herald, is calling for the firing of Lou and Jim right now and a breakup of the team. This is one of the first of the major media outlets to say this in a forthright manner. I congratulate him, even though I do not agree with all his other recommendations.

"We played a good baseball game"

That, astonishingly, is what Lou had to say after the game. Now, granted, they won, and it was nice to see them win, but a good game? They left 17 men on base and batted 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position. They left the bases loaded twice and left two men on base in each of the first seven innings. They were fortunate to score the first run when Soriano's popup dropped between three Reds in the 6th inning. Fortunately, Soto followed with a solid double to give Wells some breathing room.

Not to take anything away from Wells, who pitched a really good game, carrying a no-hitter into the 7th inning and lasting almost 8 innings before giving way to Carlos Marmol who picked up a four-out save. This is really the only kind of game the Cubs win anymore, one in which they get an outstanding start and manage to leave two or fewer innings for the bullpen, so that Piniella can use Marshall and Marmol to finish the game. Realistically, that happens about 1 in 3 or 2 in 5 games and that's why they are hovering around 10 games under .500.

Cueto, the Reds pitcher, walked a tightrope throughout the game, but it was interesting to see how the Reds played against the Cubs batting order. Lou always seems to pack the middle of the order with certain outs or at least with guys who never seem to drive in key runs. His lineups generally alternate dangerous hitters with certain outs, and the Reds survived as long as they did holding the Cubs scoreless because whenever he got in trouble, Cueto was able to pitch around hitters who might produce and bear down on guys who pretty nearly never produce in the clutch. It was only when Baker took Cueto out after five shaky innings that the Cubs were able to break the deadlock against a fairly shaky Reds bullpen.

So, a good game? Not really. More a typical game. I'm often surprised no one challenges Lou on these pronouncements of his. The only way we are going to get some changes for the fans is if the media really gets on Piniella and maybe he gets embarrassed or just pops off and embarrasses the organization.

Enough Already

I don't know how much longer I can keep up with this disaster of a team, let alone blog it. Thursday's game followed the usual pattern, a close game characterized by good pitching and an appalling offensive output by the Cubs. I remarked that I could not imagine how the Cubs might score that afternoon, but, unaccountably, they managed to coax two walks and execute a perfect sacrifice bunt by Fukudome to set up a game tying hit by Tyler Colvin. Not to worry, though, as Derrick Lee came up with a clutch DP to end the threat. They managed to destroy their chances with a sloppy 10th inning.

Friday's game was a new low. Three singles, three walks, no runs. Dempster forgot how to throw strikes in the 7th and Fontenot managed to botch up a DP to open the flood gates, but really, they might have gotten out of the inning if Dempster had not walked the opposing pitcher to force in a run. Lou finally seems to have noticed that the Soriano/Fukudome platoon may not be a bad idea, but he is too lazy to even switch the lineup around so that Fukudome bats leadoff. But, again, what difference does it make? Even if he were to get on base, he would soon be erased in a DP by Lee or Ramirez.

Which brings me to the main point. Lou must go. The sooner the better. So must the majority of his coaching staff. Something has got to shake this team up. Does anyone think trading Zambrano will change anything? Trading Bradley didn't, even though they got lucky and got a decent pitcher in return.

Then start fresh. You know you are not going to contend this year with these players barring a miracle. Stop fooling around talking about trading virtually immovable contracts. Begin by trading the obvious players who can be moved and almost certainly will not be around next year for pieces you can build around. That means first trading Lee, Nady, and Lilly. Then start thinking about building a versatile and balanced team that can play defense and not a team built for a ballpark that probably never existed and certainly doesn't exist now, namely, a Wrigley Field where the wind blows out at 30 mph all summer and you need to load up on RH power hitters, because that place just does not exist and the strength of your team is starting pitching.

More of the Same

I haven't blogged the last two games, but you haven't missed anything if you missed the games. A tightly played 3-1 rare victory over the Pirates. The only games the Cubs are in any danger of winning are the ones where they get a good long outing from a starter and are able to use the tandem of Marshall and Marmol to finish it off. In this case though the serious baseball aspect of the game was just not there. Two homers by Soriano clinched the game but you knew that if they hadn't gotten them, it might have been another tough loss, which occurred the following day when they kept trying to knock home runs and swung at everything in a futile effort to break through against mediocre Pirates pitching. The inevitable defensive miscue, this time by Ramirez, sealed their fate.

The Cubs used to be a very patient team at the plate, especially in 2008, but it is clear they have lost that attitude beginning last year, but completely so this year. They swing at everything, especially with men on base, and the consequence is they don't get hits and they don't score runs and they don't get men on base.

Ron Santo made an interesting comment about Carlos Zambrano on the national coverage of Saturday's game against the White Sox. Basically, he observed that you could just tell that Z had lost confidence in himself by the way he carried himself on the mound. The same applies to the entire team. When they come up with men in scoring position, for example, it seems as if they bat with the idea that they are in trouble, that they are under pressure, not the pitcher.

The question you have to ask is why this is the case. Some people think it is the old Cubs curse, or just the notion that things always seem to go wrong for this franchise and that there is a buildup of collective pressure each year. There is something to this, but usually these mass chokes happen in the playoffs. They have been able to put together winning seasons when they play solid ball, and quite recently in fact with the same core players. So what is the answer?

Buzz Bissinger, who I must confess I have never heard of until today, has some interesting posts on Lou Piniella, really Twitter comments. The gist of his tweets is that Lou Piniella is a lazy, incompetent, obnoxious blockhead well past his prime as a manager, sentiments with which I and anybody who has watched this team will, if they are honest with themselves, share.

I think most people will have had the experience of working with such a boss, especially a guy who just seems to sit around glowering at the world and blaming everyone else for the shortcomings of his unit. It is a poisonous atmosphere to live in and sooner or later it gets to you, especially when you come to the realization there is nothing you can really do about it. That's got to be part of the problem here, and is one, just one, of the reasons Piniella must go.

Yesterday, after the game, Piniella came out and said basically that the game that had just ended was a microcosm of the season. It sure was, and so was Lou's commentary. That's the sad part, and Lou doesn't seem to realize it, and why this arrogant bully has got to go. Just coming out and saying your team stinks, but it's not your fault, doesn't really cut it, does it, and it doesn't explain anything at all besides demonstrating you haven't got a clue.

I'm writing this post while watching today's game. It's the 5th inning. It took the Reds rookie, Wood, six pitches to retire the side. He is making his first major league start and has the reputation of being a little wild. The wind is blowing in, but that has not stopped the Cubs from swinging for the fences on the first pitch all day long. Well, anyway, Dusty's boys are hackers too, so at least it will be a fast game. I cannot imagine the possibility of this team scoring a run today.