Monday, March 28, 2011

The Carlos Silva Affair

There was a time back in the days, when the Cubs were lovable losers, when the team was managed by a succession of genial incompetents who routinely traded away their best prospects for has-beens and hired equally incompetent field managers who were generally long-suffering and sympathetic counterparts of the players they directed. The guys who played what passed for baseball in those days were flawed but likable regular guys who had some degree of talent, but also some fatal flaw that kept them from achieving greatness, at least in Chicago.

Or so it seemed anyway.

Maybe it was never the case.

Nowadays, though, the Cubs bench seems at times to be occupied by more than its share of rather quarrelsome malcontents who lack any disposition toward self-assessment. The team seems to be run by equally thuggish and authoritarian incompetents, none more representative than Jim Hendry and former manager Lou Piniella.

Think about it.

How many current veteran Cubs players can you really muster up a case for actually liking? Lost count before you got to one, didn't you?

I mean, I have to confess to a certain perverse admiration for the crazy enthusiasm of Carlos Zambrano and the stoic perseverance of Kosuke Fukudome, but I know I am in some sort of mental limbo here and I certainly would not hold them up as model teammates.

Maybe Kerry Wood. Maybe Ryan Dempster.

In any case, the Carlos Silva story ended Sunday morning with nobody looking very good.

Everybody knows the highlights. Silva reported to camp massively overweight after being directed to go on a health regime through the winter. Fat and, under the circumstances, unaccountably sassy.

He announced that he couldn't figure out why there was any contest for the fourth or fifth starter's job, given his stellar performance early last season when he was lucky enough to last into the sixth inning of eight or 10 games when the Cubs scored more than four runs.

Silva gave up a dozen or so runs in the first inning and tried to beat up his third baseman for losing a pop fly in the sun, even though he had thrown two gopher balls and virtually every other pitch had been a ball or a rocket hit for the opposition.

His next start was even more atrocious and he went into his third start with an ERA over 50. Surprisingly, he pitched fairly well, which rather threw a wrench into Cubs plans, since there was then only a single spot left in the rotation and it was fairly obvious the organization was committed to Andrew Cashner.

The upshot of the whole sorry mess is that a variety of people in the organization tried to explain all this to Silva. They said they would try to trade him and suggested he should make a couple of starts in the minors to showcase himself, etc.

Silva then popped off publicly on, of all people, Riggins, the pitching coach who seemingly had the least to do with the decisions that determined the pitcher's fate.

Enter Jim Hendry as the stern defender of baseball decorum and civilized behavior, much as he entered in the past to right the wrongs inflicted on these sacred concepts when Milton Bradley acted out in 2009. Conveniently lost in all the bombast is the fact that Lucky Jim is the one person primarily responsible for beginning the succession of horrible and inevitable events. He signed the psychologically challenged Bradley in the first place to the tune of $30 million and was forced to trade him away for a similar, though less obviously challenged Silva.

Somehow, at least in the PR sense, Hendry always lands on his feet. Instead of having to release Silva outright based on his performance, admitting he had blown close to $30 million for a dozen or so quality starts achieved in a lost season, he can nobly release the guy for the good of the team and for the good of baseball, etc.

Oh well, when you are dealing with the Cubs, you do not expect reason or responsibility to prevail.

Just as an aside, Silva did seem to raise some points about the organization's fairness to all the players invited to spring training to set up largely phony competitions for non-existent openings.

I wonder if anyone else feels the same way as I do, that most of this current Arizona spring leaves a bad taste or the perception of ugliness somewhere you just cannot put your finger on.

Actually, in the process of setting up many of these supposed competitions, Cubs management may have shot themselves in the foot. What I mean is that everyone knew the Cubs were going to go north with the six infielders they are taking now, so what was the point of inviting all the Augie Ojedas and Scott Moores and Bobby Scales's—other than to take playing time from legitimate prospects from within the organization?

My point is even more obvious when you look at the pitching competitions.

No one who knows baseball and looks at actual major league performances and the deeper statistics could doubt that Wells would be the fourth starter unless he completely self-destructed in Arizona.

So there only was one spot and that, given the organization's esteem for Cashner's potential, was also pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Inviting guys like Wellemeyer and Looper though, only served to take away innings from younger and less advanced prospects like Coleman and Jackson and Carpenter. So in the long run it actually hurt the team and the careers of the non-roster invitees.

I think that unless he was just lights-out terrific, Silva was only around to be showcased on the off-chance some team starved for veteran pitching would pick him up cheap. Obviously, that didn't happen.

As it stands, the Cubs are going into the season with at least two pitchers who are hopefully just mediocre and potentially just bad—I'm referring to John Grabow and Jeff Samardzija—who are only on the team because of ill-advised contracts signed by Lucky Jim.

I still have a nagging feeling there is something wrong with the soul of this team that you cannot really explain.

I've read enough baseball lore to know that management is always duplicitous and manipulative and that it has not hindered good teams in the past. But what is with this team when even spring training turns into some lurid soap opera?

Anyway, their April schedule is pretty easy, so maybe they will be able to get on a roll and put all this behind them.

A version of this entry has previously appeared on The Bleacher Report.


Sunday, March 27, 2011

On the Bubble


Latest news from Cubs spring training is they are pretty much set as far as position players go with the exception of catcher and pretty much up in the air with respect to the fifth starter and bullpen decisions. I suppose one would qualify set as meaning we know who is going to be on the opening day roster, but not exactly how they will be used, especially second base.

When spring training began, it looked a dead certainty that Baker and DeWitt would platoon there and Barney would become the extra infielder. Objectively, though, you can make a case that Barney has won the job outright, so it will be interesting to see what transpires, also to see if the Cubs have the guts to give him the job or at least half the job. DeWitt is not as bad a player as he has shown this spring, nor is Baker as good, so you can make the case for Barney stronger on that argument alone, especially as he has a good deal more potential. Of course, this makes Baker somewhat superfluous, and as he is a right-handed hitter who cannot hit right-handed major league pitching, he almost becomes a candidate for a trade to get another left-handed hitting infielder if one becomes available.

Reed Johnson has apparently won the fifth outfielder spot. That’s a shame because he is not a good ballplayer and hasn’t been for at least two seasons. He has had a bad spring, but not so bad as Fernando Perez. I was kind of pulling for Perez because he seems intelligent and writes interesting poems and stories. Kind of a poor man’s Doug Glanville. In any case, Johnson is at best a platoon player. As such he joins a predominantly right-handed assortment of half-players that includes Baker, Soriano, and Byrd. Something of a headache for Quade because the majority of pitchers are right-handed and against them he is likely to have no one on the bench who bats left-handed. I expect this explains why Carlos Zambrano is taking extra batting practice. I was a little surprised the Cubs added Johnson to the official roster without first looking over the waiver wires to see if there might be a better alternative.

Things get more interesting when you get to backup catcher, the only position roster spot still undecided. If anyone ought to be on the bubble, it is Koyie Hill. I’ve never seen the big attraction with Hill and this spring he has one hit I think. There is no market for this guy to speak of, so a reasonable team would release him outright. Max Ramirez can at least hit, but I cannot understand the Cubs picking him up either. At first I though it was to give them a right-handed alternative to Pena at first base, but he has not played there all spring, so it is hard to figure out what they can do with him as he is not much defensively and you want your backup catcher to be good behind the plate. Of course, Wellington Castillo is terrific behind the plate and is batting something like .700 this spring, so he is sure to be ticketed to Iowa as he has options remaining. Again, in a sane world, there would be no question who would win this battle. It will be a very encouraging sign if the Cubs do the right thing by Castillo and bring him north as a major league player.



Thursday, March 10, 2011

What’s Wrong with the Cubs Lineup?

Everyone else is plotting out the Cubs everyday lineup and batting order, so I suppose I should get into the act as well.


Based on spring training so far, this looks like Quade’s preferred batting order, at least against right-handers.


Fukudome, RF

Castro, SS

Byrd, CF

Ramirez, 3B

Pena, 1B

Soriano, LF

Soto, C

DeWitt, 2b

Pitcher

I have no problem with the first two slots. Fukudome gets on base, Castro continues to impress. The problems begin with the middle of the order. I don’t care how hot Byrd is in spring training, he is not a #3 hitter. He isn’t patient enough and he doesn’t hit for power. Fans should remember that Milton Bradley batted .500 in spring training. The same goes for Soriano. Also Byrd did not hit right-handers very well last season.


Pena should bat third. He does not hit for average, but he is patient and he will get pitches to hit with men on base if Ramirez returns to form. He also provides a nice left-right-left-right alternation at the top of the order. Ramirez is the obvious choice for clean-up, but Soto should bat fifth. Soto is patient and hits for average and power and the Cubs need to bat him higher in the order to maximize his production.


Byrd, when he is in the lineup, should hit sixth and Soriano should hit seventh. Quade’s lineup against righties is actually short a left-handed bat, which, as the team is currently configured, should be Colvin. I’ve argued previously that Byrd and Soriano are platoon players at this stage of their careers.


The Cubs need to work out some sort of platoon system with Colvin to give him opportunities and to sit one or the other of the Soriano/Byrd combo on a regular basis, especially against the better right-handed pitchers. In that case, I’d like to see Colvin bat sixth and whoever else is in the lineup seventh. DeWitt is an obvious choice for eighth.


The Cubs have more options against left-handers simply because they are still a predominantly right-handed hitting team and their three most consistent all-around hitters (Ramirez, Castro, and Soto) are right-handed. It looks line they are thinking of a platoon of Baker and DeWitt at second base, with Baker batting leadoff.


I’m not a big fan of this idea. I must confess I am not a big fan of Baker or his type of player in general, but maybe that is just a prejudice on my part. The Cubs may be reading a little more into last year’s numbers than they merit. Granted he was terrific against lefties, but, to a certain extent, these numbers look great because he was so awful against righties. His career numbers against lefties are good, but not that good. Plus the guy doesn’t walk much and he strikes out a lot.


Cubs management and Cubs fans historically have not set much store on building a balanced lineup that scores runs, but it makes a big difference. They tend to look at and acquire players in isolation, separate from their impact on the lineup and the team as a whole. What seems to be the preferred lineup this season will score runs against left-handers, but it has serious flaws against righties that could sink their chances unless they are flexible enough to make the necessary changes right away.


Even the early days of spring training support my thesis. The Cubs are not scoring runs, and when they have had an outburst from the regulars, it has been against left-handed pitching.