Heyward Signs

I think this is a plus for the Cubs, especially if they play him in center field and do not trade away Soler or Schwarber.  Heyward is a genuinely good outfielder and a consistently good patient hitter.  He is by no means a great hitter, though, and in that sense he is a little overvalued, at least to my way of thinking.  I definitely see Heyward as a potential improvement in center field over Fowler and, honestly, about the equivalent as a hitter in the Cubs alignment.

No question the Cubs have strengthened themselves short term with Zobrist and Lackey, and, again, potentially long term with Heyward.  I qualify that assessment of Heyward mainly because his new contract has multiple opt-out clauses.




Whether they need to move either Soler or Baez right now is a moot point.  Personally, I think you do this only if you can get a third ace with long term team control.  So far I do not see that sort of pitcher being available right now, other than Cueto, who is, of course, a free agent, and so costs nothing but money.

Latest Moves

I think the Cubs made some smart moves at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday.  Reports were coming in that Ben Zobrist was fielding offers of four years and $80MM, which, despite the player's talents and strong points, is a clearly crazy number for a 34 year old super sub.  The Cubs landed him for four years and $56MM, which is a much more reasonable figure.  Zobrist slots in nicely at second base and as a substitute corner outfielder and bench player.  His presence gives the Cubs a chance to bring Javier Baez along more slowly as well, should they wish to do so.

The second move was to trade Starlin Castro to the Yankees.  The team got pretty much the best deal they could for him.  Actually Warren is a pretty good long reliever/spot starter who is young enough to maybe turn out to be more.  I'd have hoped to get more in the way or prospects for Castro, but the truth is, except for his September run, Castro has been pretty awful two of the last three years.

These moves leave the team with only one gaping hole to fill, namely, center field.  There is some talk of their making a play for Heyward, but, again, Heyward is not really a center fielder.  More likely the Cubs, failing to entice Dexter Fowler back, will opt for cheaper alternatives.  Probably along the lines of Span or Parra.  Neither of these guys can hit lefties all that well, but a platoon might be in order with Baez if he works out or Austin Jackson, another free agent who has been bouncing around for the past two years but once held high promise.

Say It Isn't So

I've been pretty much on-board with most of the recent moves by the Cubs brass, but the rumor that the team is looking to trade for a first-class closer strikes me as a bit odd, unless that closer is Aroldis Chapman.  Even then the price is likely to be pretty high.  If is is Papelbon, well, that is bizarre unless you are trying to reconstruct the 2007 Red Sox nine years later.

Relief pitchers are a notoriously fickle bunch with a few exceptions, so giving up serious prospects or serious money is a risky business,  By and large, these players pitch in relief because they are not good enough or consistent enough to start.  Also, I would not identify closer as an area of weakness for the Cubs.  Rondon was really outstanding through most of the season with the exception of a two week stretch in May when he lost his closing role.

Maybe the guy they are looking at is Drew Storen, who is not a bad acquisition in general, as the Nationals are shopping him and he will not cost much in a trade.  Lets hope this doesn't turn out to be a big mistake.

John Lackey

The Cubs have signed John Lackey to a two year deal for $36MM total.  Kind of a conservative move on Epstein and Hoyer's part, but probably justifiable in relation to the outrageous sums being tossed around in free agency this year, especially for pitchers.  The signing is not without risk, in that Lackey is, after all, 37 years old.  However, he was quite effective last year for the Cardinals and there is no reason to suppose he does not have at least another year in him.

As we have noted before, the Cubs are far more likely to be in a fine-tuning mode this off-season.  They won 97 games with no real fifth starter before September and third and fourth starters who showed some serious flaws in the course of the year, particularly Hammel, who was pretty much worthless after the All-Star Break.  My guess is there is not much confidence in Hammel for the future, but unless they want to trade a young player with serious potential, they are likely to stick with him at least for the time being.

For certain, it seems that signing Lackey puts Samardzija and Cueto off the radar.  Samardzija has always been valued by the Cubs around $18MM per year.  It looks as if he is able to command more in the market this season despite his disappointing performance in 2015, so the risk there at the higher price and for more years outweighs the benefits.  Similarly, Cueto is going to bring in big bucks, but with hints of some arm trouble in his past, he probably does not justify the money or commitment.

Mike Leake might still be an option.  He is the youngest of the established free agents and he would not cost a draft choice.  However, he would not be cheap and the Cubs might just need extra money to pursue a center fielder.  Their options there are pretty limited.  They can probably sign Austin Jackson, but, of course, Jackson's stock is down right now.  Fowler and Denard Span are the only established free agents around right now.  In the case of Span, there are some doubts about his health.  Fowler probably wants more years than the Cubs are prepared to offer.  Heyward, of course, is the big outfield prize, but one doubts the Cubs can afford the commitment after the Lackey signing.  Anyway, he is not that great a fit in center field.

I suppose the Cubs would like to trade Baez or Castro to get center field help should they not land a decent free agent, but I have no idea what they could get for either one or who is available in the trade market right now.  It should be interesting.  They are said to be asking Baez to play center field a bit in winter ball.  Given the perceived weakness of the outfield defense, though, my guess is they are looking for a veteran left-handed hitter who covers a lot of ground even if he is not the offensive threat that Fowler was last year.

Cubs Lose out on Price

Rumor had it that the Cubs were in on the David Price market, but it appears they have lost out to the Red Sox.  Price certainly made sense for the Cubs.  He and Greinke are the two genuine aces on the market this winter.  Plus, signing him would not cost a draft pick.  Price, however, signed a humongous deal with Boston.  Personally, although he is a terrific pitcher, one wonders whether anyone is really worth that kind of commitment over seven years at his age.

With Zimmerman gone, probably the only really elite arm available is Cueto, who recently turned down a bunch of money from Arizona, six years, $120MM.  Cueto is good, but he is also on the verge of his thirties now and has lost some time to injuries recently.  He also would not cost a draft pick, but I have some doubts the Cubs want to go that long and that high.  I think Samardzija makes a lot more sense for the Cubs, especially as he would be slotted in as a #3 starter and reunited with Bosio who seems to understand his style.  Still, I would not be disappointed in getting Cueto at all and the price is not that great when you compare it to Lester, for example.

The Cubs need to add at least one starting pitcher this off-season.  Maybe two, as Hammel is definitely not the most reliable pitcher and he has shown himself to be a first-half star throughout his career.  However, I don't think it is time to push the panic button.  The Cubs match up pretty well with the Indians, Padres, and Braves if they are looking to make a trade.  I could see them parting with Castro or Baez and some minor leaguers who are blocked, but not with Soler.  At least I hope not, as I think there is a reason everyone wants this kid and so a good reason not to let him go cheap.

People are forgetting that the Cubs won 97 games last year despite not having a reliable fifth starter and actually not having a particularly reliable fourth starter through the second half.  They also were missing their everyday right fielder for big chunks of time and went on a substantial winning streak in August when they played Chris Coghlan at second base most of the time.  Not to mention they had no bench whatsoever until September.

Aside from the pitcher, the Cubs need a center fielder, preferably one who can lead off and get on base.  This is on the assumption they cannot bring back Fowler, which, I think, is a fair assumption.  Austin Jackson makes sense as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but they really need to go after another player in the Fowler mode.  I would suggest going hard for Jason Heyward if I thought he could play center field on an everyday basis, but this does not seem very likely.  The other aspect of things I would not discount is the Cubs having an underachieving pitcher on their radar.  They have had great success resurrecting players in that mold in the last few years, Arrieta being the most impressive find.

Cubs News and Rumors

Not much happening in the hot stove league as far as the Cubs are concerned, so much so that people are making things up, like when they ask Cubs officials if they would listen on guys like Soler and Baez, it becomes a big deal when they respond affirmatively but with a lot of qualifiers.

Anyway, Kris Bryant was named Rookie of the Year.  Not exactly a surprise.  Nor was the selection of Joe Maddon as Manager of the Year.  Both awards were well deserved.  I'd like to see Arrieta get the Cy Young, but there is stiff competition there, especially from Greinke.

Back to the off-season moves, I sure hope they do not trade Soler, as I have noted before.  Baez I can live with trading, though, on the whole, I would prefer to see Castro moved instead.  Castro redeemed an awful season in the last month or so.  However, during that spell, he had an unusually high BABIP, something that cannot be sustained over an entire season.  Castro would bring less that Baez, for sure, but there are a couple of scenarios where the Cubs do not really need to bring back that much ready talent.

The most likely scenario is they go out and sign a top free agent pitcher like Price or one of the other first tier guys.  Bear in mind they already have two #1 pitchers in Arrieta and Lester, so they do not have to get another.  Just a really good starter, somebody a lot better than Hammel, for instance, would do.  Getting such a player makes Hammel your #5 starter, which is something the team can live with, although I don't think Hammel is a long term option in the rotation.  The Cubs, in fact, may be wrong in thinking they can get a lot out of him.  Hammel has always been a first half pitcher even when he has been healthy after the break, so he may really be a candidate for a July trade if the team can find a younger replacement.

The Cubs real need now, other than at least one excellent starter, is to bring back Fowler or find someone to play center field.  If Fowler cannot be brought back, my guess is the Cubs will try to bring back Jackson as a fourth outfielder and trade for a left-handed hitter like Jackie Bradley who can dominate on defense and is more of a project as a hitter.

The other real need is talented minor league pitching, preferably players at AA who have a chance to develop rather quickly.  Castro in a package with minor leaguers who are blocked right now or have no position would get you that.  Baez would probably get you more talent.

It will be interesting to see where the team goes, though again, I want to see Soler stay put.

On another note, David Ross has indicated next season will be his last.  Ross is a solid backup, though he is certainly an automatic out these days.  Pretty sure he is valuable not just as the official catcher for Lester, but as a tutor to develop Schwarber's skills.

Royals Win Series

Maybe I am prejudiced, but there is nothing particularly attractive about either of these teams which are, in their own ways, deeply flawed.  The Royals were clearly the better team, though.  They actually remind me of some of the eighties Cardinals and Royals teams, kind of old-fashioned hard hitting teams with not a lot of power, but good speed and balance.

There will be a lot of second-guessing with the Mets decision to let Harvey pitch the ninth inning.  I am not necessarily troubled by that decision per se, but once you saw how he was over-throwing when he walked the first batter, you had to pull him.  Instead they let him pitch to another hitter and the result was a double that scored a run.  Kind of a shame, as he had pitched really well and I personally wanted the series to go at least six games.

The Mets real undoing was their awful defense, which we had noted in an earlier post.  In this case, Wright cut in front of Flores to field a grounder.  He attempted to check the runner at third, but this effort was bound to be useless, as there was no one to cover third base.  He then threw to first, getting the out.  Duda, however, threw wildly to home, allowing the tying run to score.  Later, in the twelfth inning, Murphy made another key error that opened the flood gates to a five run rally and the Mets chances were shot.

Cubs Assessment

MLB Trade Rumors has put out a fairly brief but cogent analysis of the Cubs roster situation going into the off-season and some possible scenarios.  On the whole a pretty fair assessment of things. 
Don't read the comments, which are effectively hijacked by idiots who want the Cubs to trade several of their more talented young players and half the minor league system to the White Sox for Chris Sale.  I'm not exactly certain what motivates people like this.  Perhaps they did not notice that despite having Chris Sale, the Sox won 75 games last season and finished next to last in their division.

Actually, many sportswriters and pundits, as well as misguided fans, have kind of gone nuts speculating on possible post-season moves the Cubs might make.  Most of these proposals border on delusional.  A favorite seems to be that the Cubs trade Kyle Schwarber to Oakland for Sonny Gray.  So Schwarber misplayed several balls in the post-season.  OK, but during the regular season, Schwarber played an adequate left field and nobody really said anything about his defensive skills.  Schwarber hit 16 home runs in 69 games, 232 ABs.  Project that out to a full season and you are looking at something near 40 home runs or more.  Nobody trades that kind of power for a 14 game winner.  Furthermore, Schwarber is under team control for the better part of the decade.  So is Gray, and nobody trades a pitcher who is under team control for just as long, especially when you figure your team is unlikely to become a contender for several years.

Epstein pretty much said what the Cubs are likely to do in the off-season.  They are going to try to bring back Fowler as a free agent unless his demands are too great or someone offers him off the chart money.  Their fallback is going to be signing Jackson, which will be a cheaper alternative.  Jackson is a better defensive outfielder, but, of course, Fowler was such a great catalyst to the offense that you have to believe they will go all-out to retain him or pick up someone with similar skills to lead off.

Epstein also said the team would like to keep the nucleus of young talent they have developed intact, and that were the Cubs to engineer a trade, it would be from position players where they have a surplus or strength.  The Cubs have three starting shortstops on the major league roster, so the focus of this statement must be there.

Their real need is another starting pitcher.  I'm guessing Price is the first choice, but, of course, Price is going to break the bank.  Failing that, the Cubs could always focus on one of the second tier arms like Cueto, or even a project like Samardzija.  They probably also would be willing to trade Baez or Castro for someone like Carrasco or Ross, but there are issues with this.  First off, you don't know which one to trade.  Castro has the weakest upside, but the worry there is whether his overall performance has lessened his trade value, which had taken an enormous hit before his September resurrection.

One possible trade I don't want them to make is Soler.  Soler has been hurt a lot during his career, but after the show he put on in late September and into the playoffs, his potential is off the charts.  Plus, he is also signed cheap for quite a long time.

World Series Update

The Mets are down 2-0 after Wednesday's game, which causes no great grief, though I was rather hoping that after the first game, we might have the series go six or seven games.  Game 2, as well as Game 1, for that matter, exposed what I have always thought was the Mets big Achilles Heel, which is their defense.  Infield defense, in particular.  When you think about it, Duda is pretty much of an oaf at first base, Wright has a back ailment, and Flores and Murphy have limited range.

The Mets get by because their pitchers strike out a lot of hitters.  So they skated past the Cubs in some sense because the Cubs strike out a lot, limiting the chances the Mets defense has to mess things up.  The Royals, on the other hand, do not strike out that much.  They have struck out 10 times in 22 innings so far, only 3 times in Game 2.  The Cubs, on the other hand, strike out 8 or 10 times a game even when they are going well.

So that means the Mets have to make a lot more plays versus the Royals than they did versus the Cubs.  Putting the ball in play with some regularity, even if a ball is weakly hit, can present some problems for the Mets, as it did late in Tuesday's game, and pretty much throughout Wednesday's.

World Series Quandaries

So the World Series begins tonight after what I rather think are completely unnecessary delays built into the schedule to satisfy television.  I'm beginning to question, as many analysts are doing, the whole playoff structure right now.  OK, the wild card races add excitement, as does the playoff structure, but do we need, for example, to drag this thing out so that there are so many delays premised on each series going the full length and providing built-in rest periods to realign rosters and pitching match-ups?  Not to mention the unconventional local starting times for many of the games.

I don't want to sound like a cantankerous old fart, but teams play every day during the season with one off-day a week.  Before expansion, the season ended and the World Series started a day later.  Now, with all the delays, the likelihood is the deciding game will be played in Kansas City in the first week of November.  How does this make sense?

This year, the wait has been especially troubling, as neither series went to a seventh game.  It has been so long between games that probably most people don't care who wins.  The schedule also works to the disadvantage of hot teams, as the deeper you go, the harder it is to maintain the streak.

This year, the Cubs were the hottest team in baseball from the end of September through the NLDS, winning 13 of 14 games.  Maddon had always maintained that they were a better team the fewer off-days they had.  They advanced on Tuesday and had to wait until Saturday to play the first game of the NLCS.  Did this affect the team?

As far as a rooting interest is concerned, this one is a problem.  Ordinarily, I will root for the NL team from the bluest state that is not the Cardinals or the Mets.  This year, however, Kansas City is from Missouri, which automatically disqualifies them from any affection.  Besides, the whole series will be a nightmare if only because Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds will simply drone on forever about how they play good old-fashioned hard-nosed baseball, etc., etc.

The Mets present similar barriers to admiration, not merely because they are the Mets.  There hottest player, Daniel Murphy, is a gay-bashing Bible-thumper, who has suspiciously or fortuitously blossomed into the reincarnation of Babe Ruth.  I mean, you have got to pull for this guy to fail.  He has seven homers in the post-season, half his regular season output and close to 15% of his career output.  Weird!

Anyway, I suspect I shall just watch this show and wait until next year.

Two Strategies

The post-season for the National League has largely been the consequence of the two different strategies adopted by the Mets and the Cubs at the trade deadline.  The Mets were all-in at the deadline, the Cubs had reservations.

To be clear, I am not criticizing the Cubs decisions even in retrospect.  I would probably have done the same thing.  However, as things worked out, the Mets were successful largely as a result of the moves they made to address their urgent needs at the deadline, irrespective of future concerns.

Everyone knew the Mets had dominant pitching with more coming up through their farm system.  Up to the middle of the season when they got d'Arnaud and Wright back from injuries, they had little offense to speak of.  So they addressed that need by renting Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes was something of an afterthought for them after they failed to obtain Gomez from the Brewers, but it was certainly a fortunate one as things turned out.  They gave up two highly-regarded pitching prospects to get him but not their best two, Syndergaard and Matz, who had already been promoted.

The Mets correctly evaluated their position in terms of playoff possibilities.  They saw their best chance as winning their division and behaved accordingly.

The Cubs, on the other hand, behaved conservatively at the deadline.  There were rumors they were after a big name guy like Hamels or Price or Cueto, but in the end, they did not go big, choosing instead to fill perceived holes with role-players like Haren and Jackson, as well as some veteran rehab projects like Cahill and Richard.

It is likely the Cubs were willing to part with either Castro or Baez at the deadline, but, in the case of Castro, his value was destroyed by his awful first half, and, in the case of Baez, he was just coming back off an injury.

Really, though a lot of the Cubs reasoning looked to be based on the assessment that the best they were going to do was to make the wild card game, maybe as the home team, maybe not.  They were right about this.  The Cardinals were so far ahead, they were never going to be caught.

So, given your fate depends upon a single game, do you want to give up big chips for a genuine ace who likely will not even be your starter in the game that decides whether you advance to the NLDS or not and maybe is a rental in any case?  Clearly the answer is no.

The Cubs bet that their pitching and bullpen would hold up with a little tweaking, not a major overhaul, and that their offense would carry them.  By and large, they were right about this.  They had great starting pitching in the first half despite growing pains from Hendricks and the lack of a consistent fifth starter.

Again, I imagine they figured that a journeyman like Haren would address the fifth starter issue, which turned out on the whole to be true.  They also bet that Hendricks would straighten himself out and that Hammel would continue to pitch well.  They were right about Hendricks in the main, but, unfortunately, wrong about Hammel.

Still, they had a great run and they reached the final four and their core prospects nucleus is still intact.  I think they are likely to be perennial pennant contenders for a longer term than the Mets.

Cubs Fall in Four

Some random observations:

Schwarber is a worse outfielder than we realized.  If he is to continue to play at least sometimes in left field, the Cubs might want to send him to the winter leagues for at least some time to get some experience and instruction.  He wasn't nearly as bad in the regular season, but then the pressure is on in the playoffs.  On the other hand, maybe they should try to break him in at his natural position, which is catcher.  Montero is not exactly an All-Star at this stage of his career.

Soler was the revelation of the post-season for the Cubs.  This guy was on throughout the run.  If he can only stay healthy, he will become a formidable force for years to come.  His performance in the playoffs is pretty much on par with Murphy's if you really look at the quality of all his at-bats.

Bryant got his home run.  Rizzo did not show up.  Ditto Montero.  Fowler and Soler were the only hitters to show any consistency aside from the Schwarber and Bryant homers.

Russell is the best shortstop in the National League and his loss was a real blow for the Cubs, not just defensively, but at the plate as well in terms of adding some balance to a lineup that is fairly one-dimensional without him.

The Cubs need to acquire two good starting pitchers to contend and advance next season.  Pretty much everybody knows this.  They can count on Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks.  That's it.  They do have a fairly solid bullpen core.  However, the way Maddon manages his bullpen does somewhat require the equivalent of a taxi squad between Iowa and Chicago, which may not suit some of the reclamation projects that the Cubs refurbished for the stretch run.  Then again some of them may be gone or they may be given a shot at starting again, Cahill and Richard, for example, if not by the Cubs, then by another team.

Maybe the Cubs should have put Haren on the NLCS roster instead of Berry or Hammel, for that matter.  Haren may not be a stopper, but I doubt he would have been as consistently awful as Hammel and he finished the season strong.

Just in general, I don't always have a problem with Maddon's management of the pitching, but I did rather think he pulled the plug on Hendricks too soon in Game 3 and that that sent a message of a general lack of confidence that nearly everyone picked up on.

Hendricks left after 4 innings with the score tied at 2.  Aside from the Murphy home run, which was not exactly a rarity in the series, he had pitched creditably.  Arguably, he was pitching a lot better than the Mets starter deGrom, who was in constant trouble to that point.  Had Maddon been in the other dugout, would he have pulled deGrom?

The Cubs looked like a team that was up against it all the way, especially after the loss in Game 1.  They were anxious at the plate and in the field.  Not unexpected from such a young team, and probably not a great cause for concern looking to the future, as this will be seen in retrospect as a learning experience.

Finally, myself and probably most fans may find it hard to admit this except in retrospect, but, historically, teams that rely on the long ball, teams full of power hitters who score the majority of their runs via the home run, often do not do well as the playoffs progress, especially when matched against teams with dominant pitching.

Hammel!!!

One is tempted to add a string of expletives to the title, which is something one was tempted to add to most of his starts going back to July.  This guy was just awful from the get-go, and he has been for quite a while.  Give credit to the Mets and all that.  They outplayed and outhit and outpitched the Cubs through the entire series, but if elimination depends upon one pitcher, you know you are finished if that guy is Hammel.  I have no idea what went wrong with him in the second half, but something did.

The fourth game was pretty much over in the first inning, certainly in the second when Hammel was finally removed.

After the game, Hammel revealed that he sucked throughout the second half and blamed it on a knee injury.  That's kind of the first we heard of that, the nagging injury, I mean, we knew he sucked.  Earlier it was thought to be a hamstring.  Anyway, it was nice to know that now, although it would have been nicer earlier.

What is troubling is that the Cubs continued to trot him out there every fifth day and to start him in an elimination game.  I know all about Lester or Arrieta on short rest, but come on, there is some room for legitimate second-guessing here.  Haren could not have been any worse in that situation, by the way, and he pitched a good deal better than Hammel after his acquisition.

Cursed?

Who knows?  But the Cubs have found some novel ways to lose in this series, the latest seeing the ultimate winning run score on a strikeout.  Actually, the Cubs played a pretty sloppy game.  It looked as if they were really uptight from the start.  Some of the mistakes did not affect the outcome, some really did.  The Cubs actually achieved significant misplays and errors from most of the team, beginning with a first inning error by Baez, continuing with the aforementioned strikeout pitch that Montero was unable to block, a double clutch muff by Bryant, a dropped flyball by Schwarber, an ill-advised attempt at a diving catch by Soler, and a kind of weird cautious play from Rizzo that resulted in the final run.

The Cubs continued to swing for the fences most of the time.  They got two home runs, one from Schwarber and a second from Soler, who almost connected a few innings later.  Otherwise, despite working de Grom's pitchcount up early on, they did not mount a significant threat after the Soler homer.  So far the Mets pitching - mostly against their hype, in that they were supposed to feature hard stuff, but have so far served up a steady diet of breaking balls and changeups - has kept the Cubs off-balance.  Only Fowler and Soler have been producing consistently good at-bats.  Schwarber has hit two homers, but has been unimpressive otherwise.  Nothing from Bryant, Rizzo, Castro, or Montero, not to mention Baez who has regressed to 2014 tendencies.

Anything can happen, but things look pretty grim right now.  Hammel has to pitch lights out on Wednesday, something that is possible but has not been in the cards lately.  Hendricks actually pitched pretty well and left with the game tied.  I was a little surprised Maddon lifted him in the fourth inning for Coghlan, especially as there were two outs and no one on base.  It just meant you had to get five solid innings from the bullpen and nothing could go wrong.  As it is the Cubs got only four and even that gives Cahill credit for getting four outs and giving up the winning run.

These guys are trying too hard right now, pressing in the field and at the plate.  Maybe they should follow the Red Sox pattern in 2004 when they were down 3-0 to the Yankees and just have a couple of drinks.

NLCS Game 2

Well, the Cubs are down 2-0 in the series.  Pretty disappointing.  It is not impossible to come back, nor are such comebacks that rare, but still, it is not the position I expected to see after two games.

Game 2 was pretty much decided in the first inning, when Arrieta was not sharp and the Mets rode the first three hitters to a 3-0 lead.  Granderson and Murphy have been carrying their team all through the playoffs and they continued to do so Sunday not, both at the plate and in the field.

Hard stuff dominates hitters under cold conditions, and it was no different in Game 2.  Once the Cubs fell behind in the first inning, they appeared to be pressing.  They did run up Syndergaard's pitch count, but their pitch selection wasn't all that great and the ump was giving him a lot of leeway on the outside corner.

Arrieta did not pitch that badly after the first three hitters, giving up only one run over the next five innings, but the damage was done.  Psychologically, especially with a very young team, falling behind early is a big deal.  It really changes hitters approach in big games, or at least it seemed to do so Sunday night.

The series comes back to Chicago Tuesday night.  The weather forecast is pretty good for late October, so these games are likely to resemble games played under baseball conditions rather than football.  This favors the Cubs in general, especially with the fans behind them.

The matchups for the next two games, however, do not necessarily favor the Cubs.  They will send one capable pitcher and one pitcher who is awful against one very good pitcher and one capable pitcher.

Should the Cubs lose Tuesday, they are going to have to think about bringing back Lester on short rest rather than start Hammel in an elimination game.  Sobering stuff.

As far as the offense goes, over the first two games, no one has been that hot in the sense that Granderson and Murphy have been.  A lot of balls have been hit hard right at someone, but this isn't really an excuse.  The one big disappointment has been Rizzo, who looks all out of sync and seems to be swinging at bad pitches more consistently than the rest of the team and going for the long ball every time.

Game 1 NLCS

 The Cubs lost the first game of the Mets series 4-2.  Matt Harvey pitched very well.  Jon Lester did not.  That's about it.  Not that Lester pitched horribly.  Ordinarily, he would be considered to have turned in a creditable performance, but, just as in the first game of the Cardinals series, he was not good enough to counter a dominant performance by his opponent.

The game was played on a cold night that undoubtedly affected the outcome.  Still, the Cubs were off-balance at the plate all night long.  They just were not on their game.  The speculation before the game was that Harvey would be on a restricted pitch count, but the Cubs in general seemed over-anxious.  They were doing a lot of first pitch swinging early on.

The fifth inning was key.  Behind 1-0 after a first inning homer, the Cubs launched a rally after Rizzo was hit by an 0-2 pitch.  Castro doublec a long fly that was misjudged or misplayed by the Mets center-fielder or just blown over his head.  Rizzo scored.  Castro might have run harder out of the box, but it likely would not have got him to third safely.  After Soler made an out, Baez followed with a sharp single to left.  Evidently feeling a sense of desperation with Ross and Lester due to follow, Castro was sent and thrown out by a good margin at home.

Lester failed to shut the door in the bottom of the inning. Granted he got himself in trouble allowing some dinky hits, but he had to retire Granderson and he did not.  That was the tale of the game.  The Cubs were unable to mount another challenge, having to settle for a long Scwarber homer in the eighth that made no real difference.

Well, it is just the first game, and Arrieta starts Sunday night, but it does somewhat illustrate potential chinks in the team's armor.  When Lester pitches, the offense does suffer because he and Ross are virtually automatic outs.  This matters in close games.  So does Lester's absolute inabilty to hold runners close.  I had no idea it was this bad when they signed him.  It definitely played a role in the Mets final run.

After the game, Lester pretty much beat himself up for his performance.  Nothing he said was not true, but, of course, he was not the only reason they lost.  Fans seemed livid on the talk shows, but they need to realize Lester is not the pitcher he was in 2013 and earlier in his career.

Fans also need to realize it is possible to win these series with a single dominant pitcher, just a little harder.  My guess is that in the off-season, no matter what happens, the Cubs are likely to go out and get another one in free agency.

Cubs Advance

OK, these guys are really good, that is all you can say, and, unlike any Cubs team anyone alive can even imagine, they do not choke.  Hammel was shaky from the start, which one rather expected, lasting three innings before the early hook.  The Cubs used seven relief pitchers to finish the game, which was kind of weird, but also not that unusual for Maddon.  Both managers pulled out all the stops, Maddon with an obvious aim of eliminating the Cardinals at home, and Matheny with a view to extending the series against the inconsistent Hammel even though he pretty much had no one to put up against Lester should the series reach a deciding game.

Matheny sent out his ace John Lackey on short rest in what looked like an advantageous matchup, but after being staked to a 2-0 lead before his team even made an out, he completely lost his composure in the second inning, giving up a hit to Schwarber after walking Castro.  He struck out Montero, but then served up a lollipop to the Cubs pitcher Hammel that resulted in a single.  Lackey was so upset that he promptly threw a gopher ball to Javier Baez on the next pitch.

The game swayed back and forth from there on out with each side emptying their benches and bullpens.  Each time the Cards pulled even, they were unable to shut the Cubs down and that was the story.  The Cubs got a terrific defensive throw from Jorge Soler to nip the potential go-ahead run at home to end the sixth inning, after which the Cardinals could not mount a significant threat against the meat of the Cubs bullpen.  Rizzo decided the game with a home run in the bottom of the sixth, and Schwarber launched a ball over the right field scoreboard in the following inning to seal the deal.

By some quirk of the scoring rules, Trevor Cahill, the least effective of the Cubs relievers, wound up as the winning pitcher.

On to wherever, New York or Los Angeles depending on the outcome of the deciding game between the two Thursday night.  Both the remaining teams won five or seven games fewer than the Cubs.  I kind of think Major League Baseball will need to tweak the post-season rules a little as a minimum.  There really is no reason that teams that would have finished well behind the second wild card team, in this case, should have home-field advantage at this point.  But it is what it is.

A Wild One

The Cubs won a slugfest to take a 2-1 lead over St. Louis in the first playoff round.  The wind was howling out, so you would expect some home runs, but the Cubs six were pretty ridiculous.  Actually, they hit all of them pretty hard, so you kind of wonder whether the wind had anything to do with any of them.  Maybe Schwarber's a little bit, certainly Piscotty's for the Cards in the ninth which looked like a high flyball off the bat.

On the pitching side of things, Arrieta did not look really sharp from the start.  Maybe the wind got into his head.  It seemed to me it certainly affected Wacha, though, to be honest, Wacha has really stunk in September, so you wonder whether he is just in a bad streak and would have been hammered anyway.

Maddon made all the right moves with his pitching, pulling Arrieta in the sixth and riding his bullpen the rest of the way.  I hope Russell is not seriously hurt.  Hamstring injuries are tricky things.  The Cubs might sit Russell in Tuesday's game even if he looks all right.  Theoretically, they do not lose much with Baez at shortstop, but, of course, that is theoretical.  In practice, Baez botched up two plays he should have made.  He looked really nervous in the field.  Maddon has two options if Russell sits, the one being letting Baez play short, the other moving Castro to short and starting LaStella.  I'm not a big fan of moving Castro back to short, so I kind of think Maddon will go the same route and start Baez there.

Matheny seems to have opted to start Lackey on short rest for the fourth game, while Maddon is sticking with Hammel.  Going with Lackey is a risky move, but I wonder if there is any real alternative.  Lynn was scheduled to start, but the Cubs have hit him at will most of the year and he, like Wacha, is coming off a bad September.  Another risk factor for the Cards in this move is whether Molina will be able to start and how effective he will be at framing pitches if he does.  Lackey did not throw many strikes in Game 1, at least not as many as were called.  If the Cubs are patient, they can run up his pitch count early.  The key, though, is Hammel, and whether he will be on or not.  I imagine he will be on a pretty short leash.

The weather is likely to be a lot cooler and less windy, with the winds shifting around to the northwest, which would be a crosswind to right field.  Should help Hammel, or at least his confidence.  The park should play a lot smaller tomorrow.

Cubs Even Series

The Cubs defeated the Cardinals 6-3, mainly on the strength of a wild second inning that saw them pull off two consecutive squeeze plays.  The Cardinals had something to do with their success, botching up a double play off the bat of Austin Jackson, allowing him to more or less walk into third base on a steal, then throwing away the first bunt off the bat of Kyle Hendricks.  Jorge Soler put the final nail in the coffin with a long home run.

I liked the lineup much better today even though Castro was still batting fifth.  Actually it was his single that started the rally.  However, aside from the gutsy base-running and canny small ball, Soler was the big hero.  Hate to say I told you so.  I'd like to see this guy start the remainder of the series, especially as Bryant and Rizzo are pressing right now.

You have to like the team's chances now with Arrieta starting Monday evening's game.

Nice to see the Cardinals can seriously mess up an inning like everyone else after hearing all the reverent praise from the national announcers.

Hendricks pitched quite well, I thought, and he was certainly a wise choice over Jason Hammel, who looks set to start Game 4.  In an ordinary game, Captain Hook would probably not have pulled him with a three run lead, but in the playoffs it is hard to argue with the decision.  Why on Earth Montero called for the hanging curve for the second home run is anyone's guess.  I mean, Hendricks just does not have a great curve and I think that was the first one he had thrown in the entire game.

Cardinals Win Game One

The game unfolded as quite a pitchers' duel until the eighth inning, the only blemish being Lester surrendering a run in the first inning.  Actually, a lot of the game turned on the home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi's ball and strike calls.  To say he had a liberal or eccentric strike zone would be an understatement.  He seemed to think every pitch that Lackey made that hit the catcher's mitt was a strike, no matter where Molina set up and Molina was setting up a foot outside most of the time.  I'm kind of surprised Maddon did not make more of a big deal about this.  Granted the zone was similar for both sides.  However, because Cuzzi pretty much favored pitches high and away, in practice the bias operated in the Cardinals favor, since Lester pretty much operated down in the zone.  Maybe it is sour grapes, but I hate to see a game unduly influenced by umpiring, and this game certainly was.

Some other observations.  Schwarber has played well in right field, but I do not really like him there.  He and Fowler were again the only Cubs hitters to make consistent contact, however.  Castro seems to have returned to his earlier habit of hitting ground balls to the shortstop in nearly every at-bat.  One assumes he will play tomorrow against the left-hander Garcia, but I cannot stand him in the @5 slot.  I also really do not care much for hitting Lester ninth.  Somehow in my mind, and maybe it is just me, having Ross and Lester, two automatic outs, bat in front of Fowler when the lineup turns over just gives up too much offensive potential.  I'm really hoping Ross does not start at catcher tomorrow even though it gives up the platoon advantage, mainly because Ross does not hit anyone very well.  I'm also hoping Soler gets a shot in right field tomorrow and through the rest of the series.  Soler is potentially an impact player who looks better and better lately in his limited appearances.

Finally, I don't know what is with Strop at Busch Stadium, but perhaps they should leave him at the hotel tomorrow.  They have alternatives even in the eighth inning, especially as the Cardinals do not hit lefties very well in general.

Cubs Advance

The Cubs played another excellent game to defeat the Pirates 4-0 and advance to the next round, a best of five series against the Cardinals.  This should be a helluva ride.

As for the Wild Card Playoff, once the Cubs got out in front, there was little doubt the Pirates were in trouble, given that the Cubs starter, Jake Arrieta, had given up barely enough runs in the final two months of the season to count on your fingers.  Actually, to my mind, the Pirates were in trouble as soon as they turned in the starting lineup.  Clint Hurdle decided to sit two of his biggest offensive threats, Aramis Ramirez and Pedro Alvarez, presumably to put a better defensive team on the field.

The problem there is that you are basically telling your team and the opposing pitcher you are not going to score any runs and that you haven't a hope of hitting the ball.  The Cubs, on the other hand, packed their lineup with hitters, left-handed hitters, to be precise, as four of the first five batters hit from the left side.  What Maddon was saying is, yeah, this guy Cole is good, but we can take a shot at him early and bring in defense later on.

Which, of course, is what they did.  Fowler singled to leadoff and before the dust had settled, aggressively stole second base.  Schwarber followed with an opposite field single, a beautiful piece of hitting that scored the first run.  After that, Cole was left to pitch defensively, always straining to measure up to the seemingly invincible Arrieta.  Sooner or later, the Cubs, who again worked the count to their advantage, were going to pounce on a mistake.  In this case, two mistakes that led to a Schwarber two-run homer in the third and a solo home run by Fowler in the fifth.

Meanwhile, Arrieta coasted along in the driver's seat as the Pirates tried desperately to get back in the game.  Even in the sixth and seventh innings when he was missing his spots, he managed to reach back and get the big outs he needed.

I have to say I am kind of intrigued by the philosophical Maddon and especially his post-game analyses.  Most of what he says is pretty simple and logical, but somehow he has managed to teach an almost Zen-like focus on the moment to a bunch of really young players and get them to buy in.  Almost reminds you of the last philosopher-coach to reign in Chicago, Phil Jackson.

Anyway, the Cubs have a real shot at the NL title in the coming weeks.  St. Louis is a big hurdle, but they have not played well down the stretch and the Cubs are pretty hot.  The Lester game Friday will tell us a lot.  A win there, and the series comes back to Chicago with the teams even or the Cubs getting a shot to clinch with Arrieta potentially on the mound.  Whoever wins this series is likely to take the NLCS.

The series might be pretty wild in terms of brawls as well.  The Pirates game was marked by trouble when Watson plunked Arrieta, obviously on purpose.  Remember all the head-hunting in the last Cardinals series at Wrigley Field and you have some real potential for trouble.

All or Nothing

Lots riding on tonight's game to say the least.  I can't quibble about the roster or the starting lineup.  Pretty nervous hours for Cubs fans.  I still like their chances with Arrieta on the mound.  His last start against the Pirates at Wrigley Field was dominant.  He carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning.  Cole is good, but the Cubs can work his pitch count up to their advantage.  Actually the Pirates starter who dominates the Cubs is Liriano.  An unconventional move would have been to start him over Cole.

Cubs Sweep Reds

The Cubs completed a three game sweep of the Reds Thursday afternoon, extending their current winning streak to five games.  In the process, they kept hope alive for the chance to tie the Pirates and host the Wild Card Playoff.  Possibly not the greatest chance.

The Cubs would need to sweep the Brewers in Milwaukee.  That isn't an unreasonable task, as the Brewers are pretty awful these days, maybe not as bad as the Reds, but bad enough.  The other side of the coin is the Reds would have to take two of three in Pittsburgh.  It could happen, one supposes, though this is the less likely part of the scenario.  Stranger things have happened at season's end.  Granted the Reds have lost like twelve straight, or something like that, but, of course, optimistically, they are due to win one.

The Reds series turned out to be the Austin Jackson show, at least the final two games.  Jackson is a pretty good player who has not perhaps lived up to his full potential or at least the hype that was made of it.  He seems to be on quite a streak lately after a slow adjustment to the NL in September.  He is a solid outfielder and must have punched his ticket for a slot on the post-season roster with his recent performance. 

Jackson is also an interesting possibility for next year's roster.  He is a free agent, but he is bound to be cheaper than Fowler for center field and also can probably be signed for a shorter term than Fowler, who, after a strong second half, will likely draw interest at a higher price and over a longer haul, maybe four years.  You wonder if the Cubs are likely to commit to that given the strength of their farm system and the versatility of their current roster.

On another note, Hammel notched a win on Thursday, but he wasn't sharp, so there are still question marks with him.  Haren, on the other hand, looked very good, and Hendricks was especially impressive against a very good Royals team.

What a Finish!

The Cubs closed out the home season in grand style Sunday and Monday nights behind two shutout performances.  I was out at the park Sunday night and the atmosphere, despite the prior two losses to Pittsburgh, was electric.  I mean, people were standing up and pulling for Arrieta in the fifth inning, which is a little weird, but indicative of the level of excitement.  I really thought Arrieta had a shot at a second no-hitter.  His stuff is so good and so hard to hit that he really has a shot at this sort of performance every time he starts, which is why you really have to like the Cubs chances in a one-game playoff no matter where it is played.

Monday's game was a classic pitchers duel between Hendricks and Ventura.  In this case, Ventura carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before Soler broke it up.  After that, when the starters had been pulled, it was just a matter of which manager would run out of bullpen bullets first.  In this case, it was Yost who blinked or at least showed reluctance to use his closer in a tie game on the road.  Instead he brought in the rookie Almonte, who had given up three homers in eight innings of work this season.  Denorfia blasted his first pitch high into the left field bleachers to win the game.  Denorfia rarely plays much these days, so it must have been a real fillip for him to get the winning hit.

The picture above is from Sunday night's game and shows Castro being greeted after hitting what was at first called a home run and later reversed to a double.  It still scored two insurance runs in a big inning that put the game pretty much out of reach.

Hammel!

The Cubs lost on Saturday to the Pirates, mainly thanks to Jason Hammel, who cannot seem to get out of the fifth inning with a lead or a tie.  I noted in an earlier post that the Hammel game was the key to the Cubs chances of catching Pittsburgh.  Hammel has just not been the same pitcher since the All-Star Break.  Maybe it is the hamstring injury or maybe he just doesn't pitch well for an entire season.  My recollection is that he pitched pretty poorly for Oakland last year down the stretch after the Cubs traded him off in the Russell deal.  In any case, he does present a bit of a problem for Maddon in setting up the rotation should the Cubs move on after the one-game playoff for the wild card slot.

It also sets up a similar dilemma for next year.  The Cubs will almost certainly try to land a big name big money starter from free agency and they are also likely to try to trade to get a younger arm like Tyson Ross in return for either Castro or Baez.  Haren has announced his retirement already, but this situation makes Hammel fairly expendable as well unless he turns things around pretty quickly.

Anyway, all this leaves the Cubs in a precarious position in terms of catching the Pirates for home field advantage.  They are 5 1/2 behind now and even assuming they win Sunday night (a fair assumption given that Arrieta is starting) and Monday as well in the make-up game against the Royals, it still leaves them four games back.  They would need to win all the rest of their games against Cincinnati and Milwaukee and hope the Cardinals sweep the Pirates and that Pittsburgh loses at least one of the remaining games against the Reds after that.  A pretty tall order.

The Cubs celebration of clinching a post-season spot came as rather an anti-climax after Saturday's game.  They were celebrating nearly twenty-four hours after backing in and after consecutive losses as well.  Still, it is a considerable achievement and certainly a harbinger of things to come.

I managed to get tickets for the Sunday night game, which should be fun.  The atmosphere should be wild and I'm looking forward to watching Arrieta pitch in person, which I haven't done this season.

Cubs Clinch Post-Season Appearance

Admittedly though the back door, as the Giants lost to the A's to eliminate themselves.

Friday's game was typical of the meetings between the top three in the NL Central.  As we have noted before, there isn't much between them.  Both Lester and Cole pitched excellent games.  Lester left behind 2-1, but what turned out to be the deciding run came against Pedro Strop in the eighth after a couple of sloppy plays behind him.  Montero muffed the third strike to the Pirates leadoff man Jordy Mercer.  Later on, the Pirates scored on a groundball to Castro that he was forced to play to first base after apparently failing to get a good enough grip on the ball to attempt a play at the plate.  Tough luck, I guess, but in my mind Russell or Baez makes that play and saves a run.

The run turned out to be important when the Cubs scored in the bottom of the ninth inning on a double by Denorfia and a triple by Castro.  Soler and Baez struck out swinging to end the game.  Soler was the key there, as one would expect Baez to whiff in those circumstances.  So the real difference was that Starling Marte was able to put a ball in play with a runner on third and Soler was not.

Looking ahead, the Hammel game tomorrow is still the key.  Should the Cubs win, they still have a chance to catch the Pirates for home field.  They pretty much have to run the table to do it, but the Pirates do have to play three games against the Cardinals.  The Pirates elimination number is six, so even if they lose the last two to the Cubs in Chicago, they still have a mathematical shot at the Cards and the Cards will be looking to close them out when they meet next week.

I still like the Cubs chances to advance to the wild card slot with Arrieta pitching.  Arrieta matches up well against nearly everyone.  Cole pitched well Friday, but the Cubs were able to run up the pitch count a bit.  They were a little unlucky to create most of their early chances with Ross or Lester due up.  That will not be the case next time.

Brewers Series

The Cubs took the series from the Brewers 2-1.  I thought they should have swept, but they ran into the kind of young pitcher who gives them fits, not a hard thrower, but good command, changes speeds, etc.  Actually kind of a mirror image of Hendricks who pitched really well also.  One thing I don't get is Maddon's reliance on Grimm, especially coming into game situations where he needs to shut the door and lately hasn't done so.  As I noted before, Grimm seems to have taken a vow never to throw another strike.  I'm sure it is frustrating for him, but it is really frustrating to watch this guy mess up almost every time he pitches.

As to the other games, what can you say about Arrieta that hasn't been said?  This guy is really in a groove right now and you have to like his chances in a single game playoff.

I managed to get out to the park on Monday night.  The photo above is of Javier Baez getting ready to pinch hit late in the game.  He hit a double in that at-bat, I think.  The Cubs put on quite a show offensively.  Soler especially seems to be coming around fresh just when he is needed.  Hammel, on the other hand, was just awful.  He was lucky to hang around long enough to get the win Monday night.

The Cubs have an off-day Thursday before the Pirates come in for three games over the weekend.  Realistically, the Cubs need to sweep them to have a legitimate shot at catching them for home field in the wild card game.  That would put them either half-a-game up or half-a-game back depending on how the Pirates do in their Thursday game.  Apparently, the Cubs will skip Haren's turn in that series, going with Lester, Hammel, and Arrieta.  Hammel's game is the key one in terms of sweeping.

Cubs-Cards Series

The Cubs took the weekend series from the Cardinals two games to one.  As Maddon stated after the game, they proved they could play with these guys.  They might easily have swept had Hayward's throw to just nip Rizzo at home in the eighth inning been a little off-line.  Then again, had Russell not made a spectacular play to get the last out in Saturday's game, the Cards might have taken the series, not the Cubs.  As we noted earlier on this blog, right now there is not a lot of difference between the top three in the NL Central and they are clearly the best teams in the National League.  Too bad one of them will sit out the playoffs.

Hard to realize the Cubs have only seven more home games remaining and only thirteen left in the regular season.  The Pirates series ought to be something next weekend and it will probably determine who has home field advantage in the one game wild card playoff.  I like the Cubs chances here, as the Cubs get to go head-to-head at home with Pittsburgh and the Pirates have the tougher schedule remaining.

The Cubs play a three game series with the Brewers to begin the week.  Logically, they ought to sweep, but, of course, the Cubs have historically played sloppy baseball against the Brewers.  The Brewers have always played sloppy ball against the Cubs as well, but, then, this year they have played badly against everyone.  This is a nice series to get Hammel and Hendricks some confidence going into the stretch run.

Quite a Road Trip

The Cubs won a slugfest Thursday afternoon to complete a 3-1 series sweep in Pittsburgh.  The victory followed a really exciting extra-inning win Wednesday night.  All in all, the Cubs finished up 7-4 on the trip, which is, I think, rather more than they expected when they set off.  More significantly, the team actually had a chance to win all of the games they dropped.

It will be interesting to see how things play out from here.  The Cubs certainly have a shot at overtaking the Pirates and a long shot at besting the Cards.  Looking at the Pirates, I would have to conclude that the Cubs have a certain advantage in a short series mainly because their starting pitching, as unreliable as the back end has proved through the month of September so far, is superior in that they have two lights-out aces in Arrieta and Lester, whereas the Pirates, as consistent as they may be, have only Gerrit Cole who approaches that level.

Cubs Split Double-Header

The Cubs split a double-header with the Pirates on Tuesday, avoiding a complete disaster and snapping a three game losing streak of games they possibly and probably could have won.  The first game was a bit of a nightmare.  The Cubs managed to work up the pitch count on Cole and give themselves a chance, tying the game at 4.  Then they turned the ball over to Justin Grimm, which turned out to be a big mistake.  Not that he was super-awful, but this guy has apparently taken a vow never to throw strikes.  He walked the first batter, which is pretty much what he always does lately.  The pinch runner promptly stole second base and, owing to Castro's failure to block the throw from Montero, wound up at third with nobody out.  So much for that one.

The truth is there is very little difference between the top three teams in the NL Central in terms of talent and ability, so most of the contests from here on out are going to turn on breaks and mistakes as well as dominant or heroic performances.  The Cubs salvaged the nightcap mainly on the strength of a superb complete game from Lester, who, I suppose, demonstrated why the team is paying him a gazillion dollars.  Some guys are money players and Lester seems to be one for sure.  I was glad to see Maddon forego the chance to call on the bullpen in yet another pressure spot.  The Cubs did not cash in on a lot of scoring chances in Game 2, but they played stellar defense and that, coupled with Lester's dominance, won the day.

As an aside, everybody is talking about the question marks in terms of the fifth starter in the Cubs rotation, but the real problem since the All-Star Break has been Hammel, who, since his hamstring strain or for whatever reason, has been more than iffy as their #3.  You can advance in post-season with two really good starters and a couple of reliable bullpen arms, but it is a lot easier with a third starter who can at least get you into the seventh inning.  Right now, Hammel is not that guy by a long shot.

The Cubs have Arrieta going on Wednesday night, so the odds are they can at least split the Pirates series and come back with a winning road trip heading into their final homestand.

A Disappointing Series

The Cubs split the four game series with Philadelphia, a series one would have expected them to sweep or at least win three of the four games.  After winning the double-header on Friday, the Cubs lost the next two, thanks largely to bullpen meltdowns.  There were also some questionable managerial decisions involved as well.  Clayton Richard pitched pretty well for three innings, got in trouble in his fourth inning, eventually throwing a wild pitch to allow the lead run to score.  Watching the replay, although the ball was in the dirt, it is a ball that Montero has to block.

A sloppy play by Rizzo opened the door Saturday night as well.  Still, Maddon has shown a lot of confidence in Justin Grimm even though lately there seems precious little reason to do so.  Grimm has an ERA over 10 in his last seven appearances and his numbers have been going south for the past month.

There is little doubt the bullpen is the team's Achilles heel right now.  Although they have a bunch of guys out there, it is pretty clear the only guy who pitches with any confidence is Rondon, and probably the only guys who can be counted on in a pinch more often than not are Rondon and Strop, maybe Wood and Richard and Cahill with the right match-ups.

Anything less than a split in the Pittsburgh series is going to put the team's wild card position in some jeopardy coming into the Cardinals series.  They have an off-day to regroup, but that double-header Tuesday could be a big problem.  They can pretty well count on getting seven innings from Lester and the same from Arrieta on Wednesday, but Hammel, of course, is pretty iffy.

Good Series, Tough Loss

The Cubs won the Cardinals series 2-1 and came within 2/3 of an inning of a sweep.  After Wednesday's game, Maddon was looking for lessons and sort of came to the conclusion the loss would toughen the team up and that they had to execute, meaning, I suppose, that Strop should not have walked that guy and the Richard and Rodney messed up as well.  Also that the team was upset and disheartened not to have swept the series and that was a good thing.

Actually, you can make a case that this one, and likely most of the bullpen meltdowns over the course of the season, come about as a natural consequence of Maddon's style of handling the bullpen and his starting pitchers.  I'm not saying that style is indefensible, just that there are some drawbacks in going to the pen in the fifth or sixth inning a lot, namely that sooner or later, these guys, unless they are really, really good, are going to get tired or choke or both.

Maddon has relied on Grimm, Strop, and Rondon for most of the pressure spots this year, and it is pretty clear that Rondon is the only guy he can really count on to get crucial outs or shut down the opposing team.  That's not to say these guys cannot come back.  Arrieta pitches tomorrow, so that probably means the pen will get a respite.  But the thing is that the bullpen is by no means comparable to, say, the Royals last year, so you are going to get these situations every now and again.

Also, there really was an alternative to calling on Strop to start the eighth inning and that, of course, was to leave Lester in the game.  Lester had pitched seven scoreless innings after a shaky first and had allowed only one base-runner all that time.  Granted he had thrown around 100 pitches, and granted we don't know whether he was out of gas or what, but he seemed to be in complete command to that point.

A Great Start

The Cubs managed to rout the Cardinals on Labor Day 9-0 behind a terrific performance from Dan Haren who gave them seven shutout innings.  I had expected Haren to find some kind of groove before the season ended - he has been just too consistent a pitcher not to do so - but he was really good on Monday.  Granted he was staked to an eight run lead after three innings, but the Cubs have blown a couple of big leads in St. Louis this season, so this was big.

Anyway, the team is off on another high after sweeping Arizona to close out the homestand.  Make no mistake, though, this is going to be a tough road trip, what with two more games against the Cards and a four game series with the Phillies sandwiched between the Cards and four games in Pittsburgh.  Right now the Cubs look certain to be the second wildcard team.  The Nationals and the Giants are eight games or so behind them.  They have easier schedules than the Cubs, but they still have key late series against their principal division rivals, the Mets and the Dodgers respectively.  In addition, the Giants have been pretty much in free fall since they took the Cubs series 2-1.

As we noted before, the Cubs are playing really well by and large as a team.  It's not just Rizzo and Bryant and Schwarber, but actually Fowler and Russell have been carrying the team of late as well.  We got a look at C.J. Edwards who, until this season was thought of as the best Cubs starting prospect.  This year he has switched to relief, maybe not permanently.  He pitched only one inning yesterday, but his stuff looked good and he was helped immensely by a great double play.

Another Series Loss

The Cubs dropped the Reds series two games to one, a pretty ugly scene and one that is hard to understand given just how bad a team the Reds have become these days.  Wednesday's loss was especially brutal given that Bryant had just tied the game on a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth only to open the floodgates with an error in the top of the ninth.  Rondon was really unlucky there giving up the scratch hit and then the error with two outs.  Not to second guess Maddon again, but you have to wonder why they are giving Votto, possibly the hottest hitter in baseball since the All-Star break, anything to hit in that situation, especially going 2-0 to start him out.

As far as the last minute pickups go, Austin Jackson has been pretty solid thus far and Fernando Rodney has looked pretty good as well.  Javier Baez looks a lot slimmer than last year, but the jury still has to be out on him.  Granted he has been a little more under control so far, but his swing still seems a little too big and a lot more violent than it needs to be.  I suppose he has more potential now than Castro who has really worn out his welcome fast.

Arizona comes to town Friday.  This is another mediocre team the Cubs need to sweep if only to demonstrate they are legitimate contenders, especially with the pitching matchups that are likely for the series.

Arrieta Pitches No-Hitter

Jake Arrieta has flirted with no-hitters this year and last, but he finally got one Sunday night in LA.  Arrieta was in command throughout, striking out twelve Dodgers and pretty much coasting most of the way.  I can't remember watching a no-hitter with fewer stellar defensive plays.  Castro's catch of a relatively soft line drive and Russell's play on a grounder behind second base being the only really memorable gems, which is probably a real compliment to his dominant performance.

The Cubs went 2-4 on the west coast trip, with Arrieta being the winner of both games.  I rather thought the Cubs would split the trip, but that obviously did not happen.  I figured they would lose to Bumgarner and Kershaw, but I also thought the Peavy and Latos games were winnable contests, so there has to be some disappointment there.  After the first night in SF, the Cubs didn't do much scoring and they sure had a lost of chances on Sunday, so there is room for improvement there.

Still, they have to be coming home on a high note and they get to play the Reds and D-backs, pretty mediocre opponents on the home stand.  It will be interesting to see who the Cubs promote starting September 1.  Word is Berry and Bonifacio will be in the first wave, no great shakes there, also Baez, who will be interesting to observe if he gets some playing time.

Two Straight Losses in SF

The Cubs lost two of three in San Francisco this week.  I figured they would lose the Bumgarner game, but the middle game loss was a tough one.  That one has to be on the defense and not really on Hendricks who pitched quite well after the first inning.  I suppose that is what comes of playing guys out of position, but Denorfia really screwed up the leadoff triple which was a clean single that he should have played on the hop.  Coghlan then took a bad route to Posey's flyball, turning what should have been an out into a double.  Anyway, the Cubs are comfortably ensconced in second place in the wild card race, though they have to be frustrated to be playing so well and not gaining ground.  The Pirates and the Cards never seem to play any solid opponents these days.

The Cubs picked up Fernando Rodney from the Mariners for cash considerations.  They seem bent on a never-ending quest to resurrect any closer who ever pitched for Joe Maddon in the past.  Rodney is getting a little long in the tooth, though he still throws hard.  He was quite a force last year, but, this year, as they say, not so much.  Well, the good news is we won't be seeing Schlitter again, nor Rosscup until the September callups.

With Ross off on family leave and Soler and Fowler hurt, the Cubs backup issues are rather exposed.  The improvised lineup on Thursday looked pretty much like a concession to me.  Likely September cannot come any too soon for this team.

Six and Counting

The Cubs won their sixth game in a row last night behind Jake Arrieta.  I'm sure Maddon did not want to use Strop or Rondon in what until the eighth inning was pretty much a laugher.  Still, they got it done.  The Cubs missed Motte in that one, or at least an effective Motte.  Motte has been pretty awful for the week or two leading up to the DL stint.  The guy they are really going to miss for the next month is Soler, who was getting close to being the player everyone thought he could be since his return from the DL.

For some reason the Cubs seem to be stockpiling pinch runners back in the minors for the September run.  First Berry, now Bonifacio.  I suppose it may be helpful, but it hardly seems a priority.

Hendricks pitches tonight against Peavy.  This matchup favors the Cubs if Hendricks pitches back to form.

Back on Track

The Cubs got back in the win column Thursday night with a 7-1 win over the Braves behind Jake Arrietta, who won his 15th game.  They scored big again, although how they managed to score 8 runs in each of the games against Detroit and still lose them both, I do not understand.  Well, bad starting pitching from Hammel and Lester had a lot to do with it.

Lots of the sportswriters seem to be all bothered about the weakness being shown by the Cubs starters lately, but they certainly had a great record during the winning streak, so I would not be overly concerned at this point.  Hammel's performance since his injury before the break, though, is a little worrisome.

Ben Lindbergh at Grantland published an interesting piece comparing the records of the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs this year.  As I understand it in a nutshell is that statistically the teams are not that different.  The big difference seems to be in baseball luck or anomalous results.  The Cardinals have been really lucky or achieved a record that statistical analysis does not support, the Pirates have done about what is to be expected, and the Cubs have been rather unlucky or have not achieved the results one would have supposed.

These things have a way of evening out over the long haul, so I hope the guy is right.

All things Must End

The Cubs winning streak ended on Sunday at nine, but what a nice run.  The team has played stellar ball since the awful Phillies series.  I kind of figured that when the streak ended it would be against a guy like Sale and a team like the Sox.  Sale is one of the best pitchers in the American League and just the sort of guy who gives this team fits.

Anyway, through the streak, it is a shame they have not made up more ground, though they have picked up four games on the Cards since their lowest point and the same amount or one fewer against the Pirates.  They have also pretty much put the Giants in the rear-view mirror for the time being in the race for the second wild card spot.  It is an oddity of the way the NL divisions are structured that the three best teams are part of the same division and that any of the three would be in first place in the East or West.

Monday is a day off, but the Cubs have seven more games at home against mediocre rivals, the Tigers, Braves, and a makeup game against the Indians.  They should be able to dominate these clubs unless there is some terrible letdown.  After that there is a tough West Cost trip against the Giants and Dodgers and a pretty tough September schedule that features many games against the Pirates and Cardinals before they finish off the year on the road against Cincinnati and Milwaukee.  Of course, that is what you want if you are in contention.  You want to be up against the strongest division rivals.

There are still persistent rumors the Cubs are seeking a deal for Chase Utley of the Phillies.  I sure hope they forget this.  Utley's contract is a bit of an albatross and he seems to want to play every day and play on the West Coast.  Just let this one go, guys.  Castro and Coghlan are not the ideal combination defensively at second base, but LaStella seems to be coming along pretty nicely in his rehab, and the team has been winning despite that weakness, so just let it go.

Cubs Sweep

I noted in my last post that the Giants series would tell us a lot.  So it really did.  The Cubs played great baseball throughout, winning all four games and putting 3 1/2 games between themselves and the nearest rival for the second wild card slot.

There are really good signs all around that indicate the team is a legitimate contender.  One of the more interesting signs they are for real or are all-in or whatever you want to call it is the way Maddon is managing, which is more or less like you are playing playoff games in August.  I'm not sure how long one can maintain that intensity, but it is kind of refreshing.

One sign some commentators see is that Maddon is pretty quick to pull pitchers who are not getting it done or are showing weakness.  I'm not sure that is entirely new.  He has had a pretty quick hook for starters all year and sometimes that has come back to hurt him, but it is the case with the bullpen, especially when he is using secondary assets.

One of the biggest signs is benching Castro, which I think is something that had to be done.  Castro had become an almost automatic out and was becoming increasingly erratic in the field.  Similarly playing Schwarber somewhere every day is a good move.  I'm not sure Coghlan is the answer at second, and in this respect I can see why they might want to kick the tires on Utley.  I still think Utley is a longshot and not necessarily a smart move.

The Cubs are encountering something of a logjam in the next week with players coming off the DL and other leave status.  My guess is that when Ross returns, probably on Thursday to catch Lester, they will send Sczcur down and when LaStella is ready, Herrera will go.  Herrera is versatile and has done OK for stretches of time, but he is a utility guy, whereas LaStella can play second base more or less on a regular basis or at least every day against righties.

Cubs News

The Cubs lost a tough one last night.  Haren was not exactly impressive, but he did not pitch that badly.  They lost basically because they played a really sloppy game defensively and because Travis Wood, who is showing clear signs of overuse, could not get anybody out after the Cubs tied the game at 4 with homers by Scwarber and Rizzo.

Other notable news:

The Cubs resigned Clayton Richard after deciding to put Rafael Soriano, a useless veteran pickup if ever there was one, on th DL with shoulder problems.  The downside of this is they are kind of locked into the eight man bullpen through August unless they dump somebody else.

Gordon Wittenmeyer essentially asked Starlin Castro whether he had considered seeing a shrink for ADHD in light of his frequent and unaccountable defensive blunders. An impertinent question no doubt, but maybe he is on to something and just maybe some higher-up planted the question.  Lots of major leaguers are on Ritalin these days.

Six in a Row

The Cubs notched their sixth straight win and seventh in eight games following the awful Phillies series.  They are back in the second slot for the wild card and have actually picked up ground on the Pirates for the first slot, though they are still three games out.  The Giants series coming up this weekend will tell a lot, but right now they are rolling along, and that despite Bryant's being mired in a terrible slump.

There was a lot of talk about playing stupid, which seems to translate into playing as if you were better than you were expected to be.  The thought has some merit.  This team has its weaknesses, as do all the contenders right now, but it is pretty good all the same.  I'd like to see this team make a run at the Pirates for sure.  Pittsburgh is dealing with a lot of injuries now, both position players and pitching, so there is every chance they will start to come back a bit.

There was a weird rumor the Cubs were interested in acquiring Chase Utley from the Phils.  Lets hope not as this guy has been pretty brutal lately.  Utley's skills peaked a few years ago and even though he put up decent numbers as late as last year, one has to figure the handwriting is on the wall for him.  Besides, who would he replace?  I suppose you can make a case that he slots in as a replacement for Herrera, but it's not like he is Mr. Versatility.  Basically he plays second base.

Another impending roster move is activating Montero.  Maddon has made it pretty clear he wants to keep Schwarber on the major league roster, so that does leave a bit of a problem.  The obvious move is to send down Szczur.  I'm not that much in love with Szczur as a fifth outfielder, but the Cubs could use that spot for another bat in addition to Montero.  I've always felt that carrying thirteen pitchers is wrong.  Now that the team has added Hunter and straightened out the rotation with Haren, I honestly think they can gain some flexibility by dropping a bullpen guy.  The guy who has not pitched that well is obviously Soriano.  It is possible he will turn it around, but it might take a while to do so and the odds are against him.  Also, when you think about it, he doesn't really have a role right now.

Cubs Acquire Tommy Hunter for Junior Lake

So the Cubs finished the day acquiring two modest but needed additions and not making a blockbuster trade.  I'm OK with that and Cubs fans should be as well.  You have to suppose the price was too high for the assets the Cubs wanted to get, players of the caliber of Ross or Carrasco or even Hamels.  Haren should give them a solid six innings most days and it was not that long ago that Hunter was closing games for the Orioles.

On another level, the currency most of the sellers were looking for was top level pitching prospects.  The Cubs don't have that currency in any great abundance, so they really did not have the ammunition to get much done.  By all accounts, they tried hard to push Castro, but there were no takers, which is not surprising considering his contract and lack of performance this season.

They were probably wise to refrain from trading any big chips.  Fans kind of get hypnotized by the big names floating around and fail to see that sometimes it is the trades you do not make that make the most sense.  This year there were four former Cubs minor leaguers on the All-Star roster, Harrison of the Pirates, Archer from the Rays, LeMahieu from the Rockies, and Donalson now with the Blue Jays.

On the field, the Cubs won their third in a row and fourth of five since the dreadful Phillies series.  Rizzo is carrying the team offensively right now, but they got a solid if not spectacular start from Hammel and good relief work from Motte, Strop, and Rondon.  Glad to see Rondon move back into the favored ninth inning role.

Dan Haren Trade

The Cubs picked up a useful fifth starter rental in Dan Haren for two guys nobody has ever heard of from the minor league system.  Good deal for the Cubs.

They are still rumored to be in discussions for Carlos Carrasco of the Indians and Tyson Ross of the Padres.  Also rumors of a three-team trade between the Cubs, Padres, and Red Sox.  Castro must be part of these talks, but it is hard to figure on their acquiring another pitcher unless they flip Haren in the deal.  The Padres have muddied the waters, according to reports by insisting suitors pick up Gyorko's massive contracts.  Gyorko is even worse than Castro, so that's not likely to fly with the Cubs anyway.

Rockies Series

The Cubs managed to pull out a win to take the series 2-1.  Lester again pitched very well and this time Maddon went to Rondon in the ninth to preserve the win.  I've got to say that I much prefer Rondon in this role, or at least more of a mix and match situation for the ninth inning.  Motte had a good run, and he has turned out to be a better addition than I had originally thought, but he is basically a thrower, whereas Rondon seems to be developing into more of a real pitcher.

Trade rumors are still buzzing around the Cubs and I suppose they will continue to do so until the deadline on Friday at 3PM CDT.  The Cubs will not play again until after that hour, so one would suppose the players may have some anxious moments.  One guy who is pretty antsy is Starlin Castro, who supposedly went up to Maddon after he was pulled from the game Tuesday night.  According to Castro, Maddon assured him he would not be traded, but, if you read the fine print, he really was only reassured he had not been traded that night.

One wonders if the Cubs are willing to pull the trigger on a major deal at this point.  I have written about this in previous posts.  The Cubs are 6-7 since the break and are now 2 1/2 games back in the wild card chase.  They aren't hitting a lick these days except on rare occasions, which puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff.  To their credit, the pitching has held up pretty well with the exception of the fifth starter role, which has been a problem from the start of the season.

So the fifth starter is a big need.  By all accounts, the Cubs are intrigued by Tyson Ross of the Padres.  Ross is certainly a good #5, maybe potentially better.  Rumor has it the Cubs are offering Castro and some lower level prospects, which would be a good deal for the Cubs.  The Padres are apparently more interested in Baez.  Right now, given Castro's poor performance, I don't blame them, but I would hesitate to trade Baez with all of his question marks.  At least not for Ross.  I would have been more comfortable dealing him for a genuine top of the rotation guy like Hamels.

When the Cubs sent down Richard, I rather thought they had a deal in the works, but, if there was one, it undoubtedly fell through.  That fifth starter is the biggest need, though, as there is very little going on down on the farm.  Wada was their most effective #5, but he is still hurt.  On this front, I doubt the Cubs are willing to deal serious talent for a rental like Price or even Samardzija.

If you look at the games played since the break, you might conclude the bullpen was the problem.  The two games the Cubs should have won for sure were the Friday night game vs. Atlanta and the Friday afternoon game vs. Philadelphia.  Both were lost by late inning failures in the bullpen, namely, Strop and Motte (later Soriano).  I kind of look at this matter differently, in that this need has to be weighed against what it would take to acquire a genuine stopper like Kimbrel.  Most of the Cubs bullpen failures have been more a result of overwork or overuse, really injudicious deployment of talent than the absolute lack of it.

The Cubs do need to straighten out the roster situation, though.  Right now they have thirteen pitchers, certainly one too many.  Of those, nine are relievers, which is a ridiculous number at this stage of the season, especially when you consider there are always one or two guys they never ever use floating around there.  Until yesterday, the Cubs were carrying Neil Ramirez, who has actually been hurt or on the verge of being hurt the whole time since returning from the disabled list.  Medina will almost certainly be sent down should the team acquire a fifth starter.

Still, one more guy has to go.  My candidate is Soriano, who has shown nothing and maybe should be disabled or just dumped.  Perhaps that is unfair to the player.  He has had rather little in the way of preparation since he was signed, but his performance so far is really a continuation of his meltdown last year with the Nationals.  It may be time for him to hang it up.  If he is still out there when the dust settles, it is likely that he becomes the next Edwin Jackson, at least in terms of the way he is used.

Which brings up the utility/bench player issue.  I can see the use of picking up a left-handed hitting outfielder, but, when you think about it, they may already have filled that need with Schwarber, who is likely to stick around even when Montero is activated.  Personally I think the team is more likely to look for help in the minors or in bringing someone off the DL, more likely LaStella and/or Baez.  These moves would be greatly facilitated by dumping Castro before the deadline.

Beginning of the End?

Some people are writing off the Cubs wild card chances this season.  I wouldn't do so yet, but they are playing lousy baseball and have been all through July.  Sunday's game was the nadir.  Most of the time they looked half-asleep in the outfield, misplaying too many balls to mention and generally looking as if they did not care.

I suppose this can be the case with young teams that will so often rise and fall on a crest of emotion.  Friday's game did not help matters.  The Cubs had it pretty much sewn up only to see it slip away with a blown save in the ninth and a bullpen meltdown in extra innings.  The no-hitter didn't help much either on Saturday, but the final game was the worst.

It has to be frustrating for these guys who have by and large experienced only success, but it is getting a little tiresome watching Kris Bryant doing his best vintage Shawon Dunstan impersonation and strike out on every slider two inches above the ground and a foot outside.  Similarly, Anthony Rizzo is swinging for the fences every time.

Maybe the Cubs should have pulled the trigger on trading for Hamels before he got to pitch the no-hitter Saturday.  You have to remember, though, the Cubs were playing the Phillies this weekend.  The Phillies are a last place team whose manager just quit and who are fielding a group of washed-up veterans and AAA players with the notable exception of Hamels and a couple of other pitchers.  Being swept at home against these guys does not inspire confidence.

The Cubs finish off the homestand against another last place team, the Rockies, before traveling to Milwaukee to play the Brewers, also in last place.  Things get a little sticky the following week when they have to play the Pirates and the Giants, but these are wild card rivals and they have to show they can beat them to be considered a legitimate playoff team.

Lets hope for a quick turnaround soon.

Reds Series

The Cubs wound up splitting the four game set with Cincinnati.  I don't think they played especially well.  They showed a lot of grit winning the extra-inning game Tuesday night and coming back from five runs down to win the nightcap last night.  They had a winning road trip in any case.

The Cubs have not been playing that impressively over the last month or so despite getting really good, with a couple of exceptions, starting pitching and super relief pitching except for, again, a couple of blowups, mainly by Strop.  This is mainly because, despite grinding out at-bats, they are just not scoring runs.  They have a good stretch of games against weak opponents coming up, so the opportunity exists to make up some ground.  The Cardinals and the Pirates are treading water right now, so the chance to make a run does exist.

On the positive side, Kyle Schwarber has certainly impressed, at least as a hitter.  It makes you wonder whether Montero might become the next Wally Pipp.  The Cubs plan to play Schwarber a little in left field as well as continuing his education as a catcher.  You have to figure that with the timetable for Montero's return stretching into late August at best that the kid has probably seen the last of the minor leagues.

There is quite a lot of speculation about trade deadline moves.  The latest focuses on Cole Hamels, who, as I have stated on multiple occasions, makes a lot of sense.  He is a premier starter who is under contract for three more seasons as well as an option year.  He is expensive, but the Cubs can afford it.  David Price is probably the best pitcher who may come on the market, but he is a rental.  If the Cubs cannot get Hamels, I would expect them to pick up a fairly ordinary arm to give them some assurance should Wada not recover from his injuries and hope for the best.  Price will be available on the free agent market after the season is over.

The other rentals - Cueto, Leake, Samardzija, etc. - are good players, but the question is anyone you acquire will only start ten or twelve games.  So figure they go 7-3 or something like that in those games, best case.  I haven't computed the team's record when the fifth starter pitches, but the difference in the likelihood of winning is probably on the order of three or four games at best.  The question then becomes whether it is worth a good prospect for the chance to make it to a one-game playoff that you might reach anyway without the trade.

I do, however, think the Cubs need to bolster the bench some way or other.  In particular, I don't think they can compete through the month of August with thirteen pitchers and three catchers.  Last night's second game was a good example of the trouble they are in with this configuration.  Maddon had to use the Taylor Teagarden against Aroldis Chapman to pinch hit for the pitcher in the eighth inning with the game on the line.  Sure, Teagarden delivered the winning hit, but how often is that going to happen?

Braves Series - Jackson Gone

The Cubs played good ball in Atlanta and emerged from the series winning two games of the three.  They might have swept were it not for Pedro Strop's breakdown in the eighth inning of game one, his second blowup in as many tries.  I have to admit that I cringed in Sunday's game when Strop came out for the eighth inning again, though he somehow worked through it despite a bad beginning.

Maddon is a little stubborn in his bullpen decisions.  Especially with the addition of Soriano, the Cubs have a wealth of choices late in the game and things are improving a lot with their top four guys going deep into the game.  They can afford a little more flexibility in assigning these roles and going more often with the hot hand, which, right now, is not Strop.

The Cubs are still not scoring enough runs, but they did manage four in the last two games against the Braves, which was enough to win.  They are still seeing a lot of pitches and driving up pitch counts.  Lately, however, they have been getting a little antsy with two strikes, which has resulted in a lot of outs and a declining on-base percentage.

I'm not sure what the solution is.  Minimizing Castro's role is one key.  He is having an horrendous year and needs to be moved or somehow straightened out.

Which kind of leads to what the Cubs are going to do at the deadline to improve.  I do not think they need to do much with their pitching.  Sure, a reliable fifth starter would be a nice addition, but unless they can pick up a veteran rental cheap, I do not think they are going this direction.

One reason they are not scoring is the bench.  Getting rid of Jackson frees up a spot, but, at least initially, they have chosen to promote Soriano.  I haven't seen the final word on Montero yet, but the first prognosis was pretty dire.  The Cubs are kind of back to square one with Montero out, in that they are carrying thirteen pitchers and three catchers.  That leaves only nine spots for the rest of the team, which is pretty limiting given that Denorfia and Coghlan platoon in left.  That means you have only one utility player, Herrera.

In my mind, the Cubs have to move another pitcher and demote Teagarden if Schwarber hangs on.  That frees up two spots which can be filled from the minors or via a trade.  Zobrist makes a lot of sense on the trade front, as does Parra for a left-handed outfielder.

I wonder if the Cubs would ever think of transitioning Baez into a super-sub role as a way of working him into the scheme.  He can play second, short, and third, and probably left field with some practice.  Maybe they see if he is real by doing something like this, giving him four starts a week to protect him at this stage of his career.  Although he strikes out a lot, he might be better than Castro if he could hit .250 with some pop.