The Home Stand

Not much you can say about this. The Cubs are 3-5 with one game remaining on the home stand against three of the worst teams in all of baseball. Minimally they should be 6-3. They cannot continue to play this way if they are to have any dwindling hope of contending.

The only bright spots have been the solid pitching of Zambrano and Dempster, which by the way makes Tuesday's 9th inning meltdown even harder to take. Even though the first three batters in the order continue to hit for average and get on base and even though Pena and Ramirez have shown signs of waking up, the Cubs don't score runs. The reason they don't score runs is that especially after the top three, they don't take pitches, walk, or work the count.

As a whole, you can't win in this game unless you play baseball. I mean you have got to have your head in the game all the time whether you are hitting or in the field. Looking over the Cubs lineup, only three position players seem to fit that bill, viz., Fukudome, Barney, and Pena.

Sure the injuries have hurt, and the injuries to the starters have really hurt, but there are at least 8 or 10 games this season the Cubs should have won or just gave away. The return of Garza and Wells to the rotation is going to help, but even there you have to conclude that they simply do not have a fifth starter, so this is going to have a bad long-term effect on their chances.

Quade has been dealt a bad hand and has had bad luck, but it is one thing to be forced to manage your pitchers knowing you have only got three reliable arms to start and three reliable arms to relieve, and another to continue to tolerate absolutely mindless baseball in the field and at the plate. So far that is what Quade has been doing. I feel sorry for the guy and I sympathize with his position, but somehow or other the play of the team reflects the personality or standards of the manager.

You have to ask yourself how come they cannot play respectable ball against bad teams, how come they cannot seem to get in front of ground balls, throw to the right base, be in position to take throws of all kinds, etc. These skills can be taught and practiced.

In terms of hitting, maybe Mike needs to take a page from the books of some of the old-line managers who used to fine people for swinging at the first pitch after a pitcher has thrown 8 consecutive balls. You know, the little things Brenly is always talking about.

Anyway, up and down, looking at the play in the first third of the season, it looks as if the Cubs are a team with some reasonably talented players and a couple of very talented players who are just plain lazy or dumb or whatever. A frustrating bunch to watch, to be sure.

Actually, lost in the almost ceaseless flow of bad news is the minor injury to Alfonso Soriano that will keep him out of left field for at least two weeks. This is the only way to get this hopelessly inept player on the bench as no matter how badly he performs even the most minor actions on the field that do not involve trying to hit a home run on every single pitch, the Cubs will never sit him down.

The Tyler Colvin Dilemma

The Cubs optioned Tyler Colvin to Iowa last week, effectively pulling the plug on a bizarre series of management decisions that tell you as much about Cubs' management and its shortcomings as it does about Colvin's ability to play at the major league level on a regular basis.

To recap his career in a nutshell, Colvin came up in September of 2009 to finish up a lost season. He got very little playing time under the Piniella regime and didn't impress anyone very much. Over the winter, he went down to Arizona and bulked up. He came into spring training and proceeded to tear up the Cactus league, hitting for average and power and pretty much forcing the Cubs to add him to the big league roster.

When he came north, though, Piniella gave him limited playing time early even though he continued his hot hitting. When he came up in 2009, it looked as if the Cubs were grooming him to play center field, but in the off-season, evidently having decided this wouldn't work or not wanting to take a chance on a young player in another lost season, Hendry opted to sign the journeyman Marlon Byrd to play center field for $30 million or so over three years.

A good team, that is, a well-run team, would have had some idea of the talent potential of a young player, of all their young players really. So if they supposed Colvin had the potential to play everyday in the majors, they would not have made moves that had the effect of blocking him at every turn. One can only conclude they did not see much potential there, or they were afraid to take a risk, preferring the acquisition of another overpaid free agent.

Colvin's emergence as a hitter in spring training 2010 created a problem though. They had, at least in the fans' eyes, a rookie phenom, but they had nowhere to play him. He continued to hit in the limited chances he was given in April and May, so that when the pressure built to bench Fukudome when he slumped in June, Piniella was forced to start playing him every day. Unfortunately in the run-up to getting his chance, Colvin learned that the way to impress Piniella was to hit home runs.

In the minor leagues, Colvin showed himself to be a reasonably fast player who hit for average with good power, but he had little patience at the plate. Kind of a left-handed Marlon Byrd. In the majors, though, Colvin turned into a power-hitter exclusively, 20 home runs in around 350 ABs. In the process, though, his average dropped to around .250 and his strikeouts went from around one in every 5 ABs to close to one in every 3. In short, Colvin transformed himself from a left-handed Byrd to a left-handed Soriano.

The upshot of this comedy of errors is that one-third of the way through his second full season in the major leagues, we still don't know whether Colvin is a potential starter and run-producer. There's just no excuse for that. He must have some ability to have hit 20 home runs in limited action last year. Granted that major league pitchers figured some weaknesses through the course of the season, but his performance is at least something to work with. One would suppose that that would merit a more reasoned approach than "platooning" him with another left-handed hitter in right field.

Sad to say the Cubs and Quade and Hendry seem to have fallen in with the notion that Colvin should play right field, a position that from my own limited observation of his skills, he is probably least suited to play. Maybe this is the result of the meme created by Steve Stone and reluctantly supported by Lou Piniella last season: that Fukudome did not represent the future of the team and that Alfonso Soriano and Marlon Byrd, equally unproductive through the second half of 2010, somehow did.

Actually, Colvin is probably best suited to playing left field or first base, with maybe some starts in center field where his range might compensate for his inexperience. With this in mind, the logical thing for the Cubs to do, especially through the first two months of the season when Fukudome is usually hot, would have been to let Colvin spell Soriano and Byrd at least four times a week against right-handers and maybe play a little first base.

I'm rather a firm believer in the notion that young players need to play when they come up to the majors and that they need to have a clearly defined role. Unfortunately when it comes to the Cubs, this is rarely the case. Starlin Castro seems to be the exception here, as is Darwin Barney thus far. The career of Felix Pie is more the norm.

Of course, there is another viewpoint respecting Colvin's skills, and one would rather hope it is not the case. With the terrible injury to Marlon Byrd and the likelihood that he will miss quite a lot of time this season, you might expect this to have been a golden opportunity to give Colvin consistent playing time. The Cubs have instead chosen to play Reed Johnson instead.

Now Johnson is having a nice enough year and he will not embarrass you in the field, but he is a veteran role player about whom virtually everything is known. Actually, the more Johnson plays, especially against right-handed pitching, the more his production will decline. I don't mean to slight his skills, but that is just the way it is. Using him more or less as Piniella did in 2008 is the absolute best you can expect. Since he is three years older, I would expect less.

In any case, the viewpoint I alluded to above is that the Cubs know a good deal more about Tyler Colvin that they are letting on. They see Colvin's skills as pretty much those demonstrated in August and September of last year, which is that he is an impatient hitter about whom the league has discovered weaknesses. Good players make adjustments. So far Tyler Colvin has not. So he was sent down to the minors allegedly to regain his confidence and to make the necessary adjustments. Playing at AAA will certainly help his confidence. So far through six games he is batting close to .300 and has five extra base hits.

However, he is not going to see pitching at AAA that will test him sufficiently to iron out the flaws in his approach and his swing. Pitchers who can consistently get him out are in the major leagues. That is the only place he can make the adjustments he needs to make. So for my money, the sooner they bring him up and give him consistent ABs, the better, because that is the only way we are going to find out if he is any good and is actually part of the future of this team or a throw-in in a trade that brings the possibility of genuine improvement.

The Road Trip

The Cubs finished up the trip through Cincinnati, Miami, and Boston surprisingly well at 3-4, though there seem to be a dwindling number of survivors to talk about it. They played awful baseball in Cincinnati, good ball in Florida, and one good inning in Boston, enough to earn a single victory even though they seemed totally outclassed and outplayed by the Red Sox.

In the process Marlon Byrd suffered a horrific injury when he was hit in the face by a pitch Saturday night. Byrd's not a great player, but he was just starting to heat up a little in terms of run production and he will be missed for sure. I would suppose he would be sidelined at least a month and maybe more. The Cubs brought up a relief pitcher to replace him on the roster, largely because their bullpen was in tatters after Friday night's debacle behind Doug Davis and they weren't expecting much from James Russell.

I'd look for them to get some outfield help from the minors. Brett Jackson, reputedly the next big star coming through the system, is hurt, so he is out. Tyler Colvin is 5 for 16 since his demotion with 4 extra base hits. Ordinarily, I would think Byrd's injury would be an opportunity to play him more or less everyday or at least against right-handers and find out once and for all whether he has what it takes. Of course, with the Cubs, you never know. Look for them to send down a reliever to free up a spot.

After Friday's performance, I was about to pronounce the great Doug Davis experiment DOA, but if Garza has to miss another turn, the Cubs are in trouble. Wells is progressing in his rehab, but he had an unimpressive outing Sunday. If he is held back for another start, the Cubs are in big trouble again with only Zambrano and Dempster available from the opening day rotation. Cashner looks to be out at least through July if not longer.

I actually don't mind seeing Coleman hang around as the fifth starter, but Davis and Russell mean almost certain losses, despite Russell seeming to be an effective left-handed reliever.

Baker also came up lame. Again he is not a great player, but an effective role player, at this stage a lot more effective than I had given him credit for when the year started. Lots of infielders at AA to choose from, but probably no one ready for the show as yet. AAA full of weak prospects now, at least among the infielders, just professional minor leaguers. Not much pitching help from there either.

A Terrible Game

Coasting along with a 4-0 lead in the 6th inning, Zambrano suddenly fell apart. Granted he was not helped by shoddy fielding from Ramirez and especially Soriano. But it was painful to watch nonetheless. No wonder Quade called a team meeting immediately after the game.

You wonder how long this team can put up with Soriano's careless play. Later on he got a double that Castro or Barney would certainly have hustled into a triple because the Reds outfielder did not come up with it cleanly. Then he got a slow start on a screaming hit by Bryd and was thrown out at home. Not that DeJesus had any business sending him in the first place. I think that makes three runners cut down at home in the last week.

Actually, as is so often the case, the first inning was a harbinger for bad things to come. After Fukudome worked the count for 9 0r 10 pitches before he struck out, Barney, Castro, and Ramirez walked. It was time for the out brothers to take over though, again batting back to back. Soriano struck out and Byrd grounded out. So it goes. I notice they are in the lineup again tonight batting back to back.

Colvin was sent down in favor of Tony Campana. Not a big surprise there. He needs to straighten himself out. The Cubs also need to figure out the obvious ways to use him.

Feast or Famine

Since I last posted after the Zambrano game on Tuesday, the Cubs have managed to win two blowouts behind Garza and Dempster and lose two other games when they couldn't score in a blowout loss to the Cardinals and a sloppy loss to the Giants Saturday night.

Davis pitched surprisingly well in the Giants game that really should not have been played given the appalling weather conditions. In both the losses, the Cubs were unable to deliver on the occasions when they had a genuine scoring opportunity.

On Saturday, the tone was set in the first inning when Barney and Castro got hits and Pena walked to load the bases. Byrd and Soriano were retired after awful at-bats and that was the story.

Quade seems to have some idea of what is wrong with the Cubs approach with runners on base, but he has some blind spots as well. The biggest one to my mind is his insistence on playing Byrd every day and always batting him in an RBI spot, namely third or fifth. Come on, this guy has 8 RBI all season. When he hits with men on base, he is guaranteed to strike out, ground out, or hit into a double play.

If you look at Byrd's numbers, you might think he is having a good year. He's batting .312 and has had two streaks where he has hit for average sandwiched around a prolonged slump in late April. Here's the deal though, only a .390 slugging percentage, virtually no walks because he swings at the first pitch each and every time he bats even if the opposing pitcher has thrown four or six or eight straight balls.

Byrd has 8 RBI in more than 150 ABs. Colvin and Johnson have 8 RBI each in roughly 100 ABs between them. That should tell the Cubs manager and coaches something. It should tell them to watch the games, not read the box score.

Now I'm not suggesting that Tyler Colvin is a great hitter right now. He seems like a mirror image of Alfonso Soriano. But maybe some of his troubles stem from not having a defined role on the team, something I think young players need.

He began the season "platooning" with Kosuke Fukudome even though they both bat left-handed and even though they hit left-handers about as well. Then he subbed for Pena for a week or so when Pena was hurt. Now he has no role whatsoever because Quade thinks his outfielders are having good years, even though Byrd really isn't and Soriano has cooled off and cannot actually catch anything in the outfield.

I made the suggestion before the season began that the Cubs offense would produce runs consistently in direct proportion to the productivity they got from their left-handed hitters and in inverse proportion to the amount of at-bats Byrd and Soriano took against right-handed pitching. I don't see any reason to modify that stance now.

Looking ahead, the Cubs play seven straight night games with the Reds, Marlins, and Red Sox. They can use Davis to replace Russell in the rotation, but they are unlikely to get Wells back in the next two weeks. They need to keep their heads above water during this stretch to give themselves any chance at the division.

A Painful Loss

In more ways than one, I might add. Zambrano pitched a good game and left with the score tied 4-4 only to have Wood blow the game with an uncharacteristically bad inning.

Actually, the Cubs had blown the series opener much earlier with some genuinely awful fundamental play. Soriano allegedly slipped and fell backwards while attempting to field a line drive hit directly at him. Actually to this observer it looked as if he lost the ball in the lights or just didn't pick it up and then just ducked in fright. Anyway, you wonder how long the Cubs can afford the luxury of playing an outfielder who on his best days gives up on defense as many runs as he produces on offense.

Aside from missing cutoff men all day long and cutoff men being out of position all day long, the other egregious misplay came when Koyie Hill couldn't catch a perfect throw from Fukudome that had the runner beat by 20 feet. Two runs on those plays right there. Zambrano showed unexpected equanimity by not bopping one or both of these guys right then and there.

You cannot afford to be losing games like this day in and day out. Even with all the sloppy play, they might have pulled it out had they been able to come through once or twice with men on base. 13 hits, 3 walks, 4 runs, 12 LOB.

Add to this losing Soto to the DL for at least 15 days and you have the makings of a really bad day for Cubdom. Not that Soto was burning up the league, but he did give the team a quality at bat most of the time, unlike the first-pitch swingers who bat ahead of him. This may be a blessing in disguise if Quade can install Wellington Castillo in the principal catching position for the interim. Castillo can hit and looks like a decent defensive catcher. If he gets a chance and Hill does not take too many of the starts, the Cubs might finally decide to part company with Hill's anemic bat. It is clear that Quade has almost no confidence in Hill as it is, since he has started only 3 of the team's 33 games. At this stage of the season a backup would be expected to have started twice that number at least.

Two Quality Starts, One Good Inning

The Cubs got a quality outing finally from Coleman, but they just did manage to pull it out in a dramatic bottom of the ninth. Once again their brains and bats seemed to seize up as soon as they got a scoring opportunity. With the sole exception of that ninth inning when they followed the Pena home run with good, solid at-bats that culminated in Fukudome's game winning hit after he had worked the count to his advantage.

On Sunday, it was back to business. Dempster pitched a nice game. The Cubs showed an amazing lack of patience with Cueto, who was making his first start off the DL and was missing all over the place, especially early in the game. The Cubs insisted on hitting his pitches, though, with men on base. They left nine runners and Castro, who is just not looking like a potential superstar anymore, personally stranded six runners.

I think Quade knows what is wrong here to judge from his post-game remarks. At least he knows why Castro isn't hitting and presumably he can expand that analysis to include Byrd, Soriano, and Ramirez for sure, as well as Soto most of the time. These guys don't take pitches and don't work the count. Fukudome, who probably has less native talent than any of the aforementioned stars, always delivers a quality at-bat these days, and so, even though his production has come down from the stratospheric heights he achieved through early April, his controlled approach Saturday wound up winning the game.

Two Gems and a Tough Loss

The Cubs got two very good pitching performances from Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano respectively to close out the Dodgers series and the road trip on a winning note. These games followed the script of most of the Cubs solid performances, sharp starting pitching, solid relief, just enough offense to get by. The Zambrano game was something of an exception. They got enough offense through the middle innings to have the game well in hand throughout.

Friday's game against the Reds saw some really strange plays, mostly by the Reds, an indifferent performance from Matt Garza, who, until then, seemed to have turned the corner. Once again the Cubs could not come through in the clutch. Bad or unlucky at-bats all through the order, 2 for 12 RISP. Clearly a game they should have won.

Fukudome, Barney, and Castro are coming down to earth a bit, but this is going to happen. Nobody holds a .500 OBP all year, but the Cubs are still creating chances. Pena looks a lot more comfortable and controlled at the plate. But the weakness still is thoughtful, patient at-bats with men on base. No question this is going to be a problem all year.

Last Time through the Rotation

Such as it is. When the Cubs get Wells and Cashner back, things should improve. Until then the best they can hope for is .500 baseball. The way they are playing, they are lucky to get that.

The Cubs, I think, are counting on getting by in two cycles of the rotation (10 games) with a 4-2 record when Dempster, Zambrano, and Garza pitch, and maybe 1-3 when Coleman and Russell pitch. This would be a reasonable scenario if Dempster pitched back to his form of the last three seasons. If he doesn't, they are in big trouble.

Actually, the performance of Coleman and Russell, while not especially edifying, has not been as bad as it looks on paper. Most of the time, the Cubs have been in these games, as was evidenced last night, but a combination of bad breaks and lack of production has doomed their efforts.

When the Cubs get their rotation in order, there is no reason they cannot play .600 ball if they get any production at all from their left-handed hitters. Right now that's a big if. Right now they can only really count on getting two or three runs a game, occasionally four or five hard-earned runs. Combined with really good pitching, which they got from Zambrano and Garza in Phoenix, they can win. Usually they will not win if the pitching is bad or mediocre.

This is a tough situation and I cannot see it improving until their rotation is intact and they get some production from Pena and Colvin. And they bench or trade Byrd. Even in addition to Colvin getting playing time at his expense, long term they need a left-handed hitting center-fielder.

Center field looks like the only place you can put a left-handed bat on this team as it is presently constructed, and you need a third left-handed bat at least to enhance Fukudome and Pena. I read where teams are putting out feelers for Byrd. Time to move him now when there is still a market.