First off, Epstein and Hoyer must really like Anthony Rizzo. He has been a key player now involved in two big trades, the first being the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez by the Red Sox when Epstein was GM there and Hoyer the GM in San Diego. Now, essentially they have got him back in exchange for Andrew Cashner.
Rizzo is only 22 and has terrific numbers in the minors. He was clearly over-matched last year when the Padres brought him up. He batted like .140 and struck out nearly half the time, 46Ks in 128 ABs. On the other hand he walked 31 times. This kid has potential and the Cubs must think he was genuinely over-matched as they intend to start him out at AAA. I could be wrong, but LaHair still may have a future even if he is displaced by Rizzo. He played reasonably well in the outfield last season, at least as well defensively as Soriano did in LF.
Weighing against the Epstein/Hoyer assessment of Rizzo is the fact that the Padres clearly have given up on him, choosing instead to trade for the major league ready Yonder Alonso, who really can hit major league pitching right now.
This trade makes sense only if you regard Rizzo as potentially a franchise player and Cashner's role as limited to relief. If you think Cashner is a potential starter, then you are giving up a commodity the Cubs can ill afford to squander. That may be the case with Cashner. San Diego intends to use him in the bullpen and pitchers with shoulder problems who throw 95+ usually don't come back and give you 200 innings. In this matter, things could go either way and you have to trust the GM's judgment.
One refreshing aspect of the trade is that we do not have to endure another Moneyball explanation of the number of years we will control an unproved currently mediocre player as opposed to the older proven player we have given up on and would get nothing for if we allowed him to finish his contract, etc.
Whatever you think of the Zambrano deal, the explanation for paying him $18M to play for someone else in return for a pitcher who, whatever his potential, genuinely stinks right now makes absolutely no sense.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
First Reactions to Zambrano Trade
My first reaction here is that I don't much like it at all. Everyone who reads this blog knows that I think Carlos Zambrano is a good pitcher who is still young enough to regain his best form. Moreover, whatever you may think of Zambrano personally, you have to agree that he is an exciting player and also that the Cubs have just completely mismanaged his career.
I suppose it was inevitable given the whole mess that ended last season that the Cubs would be looking for a face-saving way out of the situation. Here's the thing, however, the Cubs deal off Zambrano in his contract year and agree to pay another team something like $15M of his $18M contract. Moreover, he is going to a team that is making a big play to contend in the NL East and for a manager who is a close friend. He's likely to do well there, maybe better than he might have done here with all the baggage and tension surrounding his return.
In return, the Cubs get what? Chris Volstad, a young and inconsistent former #1 draft pick who just seems to manufacture base runners and home runs. He has been in the majors for four seasons and has got worse in each of them. When I first heard of the deal, although I didn't like it, I thought, well, at least they got a young ML starter in return. Then I did some research. Boy, does this guy stink! Take a look at this article in which pitchers stuff is rated statistically. Turns out Volstad works out over the past three seasons as having the eighth worst stuff in all of baseball. Some catch.
I might be wrong here, and maybe someone can turn him around, but this move smacks of desperation. Even at his worst and most distracting, Zambrano was good for 9 or 10 wins in partial seasons interrupted by all sorts of trips to the DL and suspensions. Even in the last three seasons when Zambrano was not as effective and seemingly more troubled than earlier in his career, and even though his team was just awful, the Cubs had a won/lost record well over .500 when he started. With Volstad on the hill, the opposite was the case.
I suppose it was inevitable given the whole mess that ended last season that the Cubs would be looking for a face-saving way out of the situation. Here's the thing, however, the Cubs deal off Zambrano in his contract year and agree to pay another team something like $15M of his $18M contract. Moreover, he is going to a team that is making a big play to contend in the NL East and for a manager who is a close friend. He's likely to do well there, maybe better than he might have done here with all the baggage and tension surrounding his return.
In return, the Cubs get what? Chris Volstad, a young and inconsistent former #1 draft pick who just seems to manufacture base runners and home runs. He has been in the majors for four seasons and has got worse in each of them. When I first heard of the deal, although I didn't like it, I thought, well, at least they got a young ML starter in return. Then I did some research. Boy, does this guy stink! Take a look at this article in which pitchers stuff is rated statistically. Turns out Volstad works out over the past three seasons as having the eighth worst stuff in all of baseball. Some catch.
I might be wrong here, and maybe someone can turn him around, but this move smacks of desperation. Even at his worst and most distracting, Zambrano was good for 9 or 10 wins in partial seasons interrupted by all sorts of trips to the DL and suspensions. Even in the last three seasons when Zambrano was not as effective and seemingly more troubled than earlier in his career, and even though his team was just awful, the Cubs had a won/lost record well over .500 when he started. With Volstad on the hill, the opposite was the case.
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