The Ryan Braun Controversy

I suppose I am a little late weighing in on this matter, but I have to agree with the critics there is something fishy here.  The real lesson is that baseball, in contrast to the Olympics, for example, is just not that serious about eliminating performance enhancing drugs.

The long and the short of it is this, gleaned from a variety of sources.  Ryan Braun tested positive for substances that could not be naturally produced in his body.  The test sample was delayed in transit and stored for 48 hours at the home of the tester where it was sealed and refrigerated.  It was impossible for the sample to degrade under these or actually most any conditions.  There was no break in the chain of custody, as had earlier been reported.

What Ryan Braun did was to get himself a good lawyer.  The validity of the test was never questioned.  He was able to convince a panel of arbitrators on a split decision that a technicality of a technicality voided the whole process.

Baseball certainly needs to clarify the rules for handling samples and indeed for taking them in the future.  Fans can conclude two things from the entire affair.  One is that if you are a big star nothing bad will happen to you, at least until your career is over.  The other thing is that, if the results are correct, Ryan Braun must be incredibly stupid or arrogant to have been taking illegal substances during the season, which is the only time baseball runs random tests.

This policy, by the way, is another reason to conclude baseball is not serious about enforcing doping rules, since in all other sports it has been found that athletes are more likely to use banned substances in off-season training to bulk up or when injured to speed healing.

Top Prospects

Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus came out with their Top 100 Prospects lists today.  No real surprises.  The Cubs have four prospects on the BA list: Brett Jackson at #32, Anthony Rizzo at #47, Javier Baez at #51, and Matt Szczur at #64. BP has the same players as BA, but the rankings are lower and Szczur is not on it.

That's about average performance for a big league franchise.  There are 32 teams, so having three ranked prospects would be average.  Two things are disturbing for Cubs fans if these ratings carry any weight in the real world.  One is that they have no one in the top ten or top twenty.  The other is there are no pitchers among their ranked players.

The Cubs used to be famous for developing pitchers and little else from their farm system and this was regarded as a strength.  One sure and cheap way to build from within is to develop top notch pitchers from your farm system.  The Cubs have not been doing this lately and it has shown on the field.  Conception might make this list down the road, but there isn't a whole lot else out there.

I rather look for Epstein and Hoyer to be drafting college pitchers hard in this year's amateur draft.

Quick Hits

The Cubs settled their arbitration with Matt Garza for a little less than half the difference.  Most commentators seem to think that means the team is still shopping a guy who, though not a genuine ace, is arguably the only very good starting pitcher they have.  I rather think the opposite is the case, simply because if they were really determined to trade him, they would have let the case go to arbitration.  They would surely have won the award at their number, as Garza's number was just off the wall.

You have to wonder what Garza's connections are really up to.  From their actions, one would suppose the two sides are amenable to an extension but pretty far away on price.  I still think an extension is possible this year, but I also think Garza is gambling on having a really breakout year that is going to put him up in the $15MM range when he hits free agency.  Clearly the Cubs think he is dreaming here, but they are in a good position with him.  Should they contend this season, they can keep him in the knowledge he is under team control for another year.  Should they flop, they are likely to be able to move him at the deadline for a good deal more than they are likely to get now.

The Cubs have designated Blake DeWitt for assignment in order to clear a roster space for Adrian Cardenas, a AAA second baseman/utility infielder they have claimed on waivers from the Oakland system.  This is a smart move.  DeWitt has never lived up to his promise and was a rather superfluous addition to the team once they acquired Ian Stewart from the Rockies to play third base.  I had thought they might get something for DeWitt, and maybe they still will.

Cardenas is four years younger, a good deal more versatile, and looks like a reasonably patient left-handed hitting prospect.  He was once rated among the top ten A's prospects, but the organization seems to have given up on him.