Random Thoughts

• Whose side is Dale Sveum on?  Last night, the Cubs claw back to within one run of the Reds in the top of the eighth.  Granted that Chapman is warming up for the save, but, come on, Sveum leaves Rondon in to give up two more runs when he has Fujikawa, Marmol, and Gregg available.  Almost a reprise of Tuesday's loss when Sveum went to the scrubs instead of major leaguers after Garza' brilliant start.

• Sveum and the Cubs are baffled by their apparent inability to perform against left-handed pitching.  This has been a perennial problem for the Cubs.  Even guys who are acquired because they kill lefties, viz., Scott Hairston, stink in this regard.  A few years ago, during the Piniella era, it was revealed the Cubs had no left-handed batting practice pitcher, so they never took BP against lefties.  It appears they now have a left-handed BP pitcher, but they don't feel comfortable with that routine.  Sveum says things like, well, you know, they have a routine, and so on.  OK, they have a routine and a comfort level, but it doesn't work, so maybe they should change their routine or else they don't play.  When Castro was questioned about how badly he was hitting against lefties, he said he had the same approach to hitting against everyone, that he doesn't change his approach, and he does not intend to change it.  That's why he is having a bad year.  Ultimately, these things are not just player issues, they are management issues and management needs to be judged at least equally responsible for failure and lack of progress.

•  I happened to be listening to the early part of the broadcast yesterday.  Len and JD discussed the fact that the Reds had nearly ninety more walks than the Cubs thus far in the season.  That's more than two more men on base per game.  So it is no wonder these guys do not score runs.  The Reds have scored 232 runs to the Cubs 183.  They have 15 more hits thus far.  The difference is in the walks.  As a general rule, teams can expect to score about a third of their base-runners.  So if you consistently have numbers like this, you are going to average around 600 runs a year.  Winning teams score 800 times.  As long as the Cubs recruit and obtain and nurture brainless, impatient hitters, they will continue to lose.

•  If I remember correctly, the Cubs hit the skids around this time last year and then everybody was OK with trading away any veteran talent that might fetch even a minimal return.  There is already a drumbeat to trade Garza and Feldman and DeJesus and just about anyone who is perceived to have value in exchange for low-level prospects.  The Cubs should make some trades, but so far their strategy is just non-productive.  Last year they traded Maholm, Dempster, and Johnson at the deadline in return, essentially, for Aroldys Vizcaino and several marginal low-level prospects.  Trading Dempster was justifiable. He was an aging free agent whom the Cubs were unlikely to sign at a reasonable price.  Trading Johnson was relatively meaningless, though it should be noted that his replacement, Hairston, acquired as a free agent, is a complete bust.  Trading Maholm, a solid pitcher with four or five more seasons in his future and who is performing well for the Braves, was a mistake.  They just had to replace him with similar free agents in the off-season and received no immediate return (Vizcaino).

• The Cubs off-season moves have not been earth-shattering either, though they have added useful talent.  The biggest trades were Marshall for Wood and Cashner for Rizzo, trades that gave up talent for equivalent or more useful talent.  I've got no problem with these deals.  Nor do I really have issues with the mid-level free agents.  By and large they have been useful additions, especially the pitchers.  Their one major foray, Earnest Jackson, is so far a bust.

• The Cubs should either trade Castro while he still has perceived value or send him to the minors until he starts focusing.  I know this is controversial and it is a cardinal tenet of Cubs fans belief that Castro is a major talent, but this just isn't the case at all.  Castro may have all the talent in the world, but he has actually regressed since he was promoted to the majors.

The Garza Start

Garza was dominant for five innings of one-hit, shutout ball.  He left leading 3-0.  Then the master, Dale Sveum, took over.  I wouldn't ordinarily harp on this point, but tonight's game rather illustrates some disturbing trends concerning this year's Cubs.

One thing I neglected in the earlier report card post was Cubs coaching and management.  You would have to give the on-field management and coaching a rating of near zero.  First off, as a game strategist, Dale Sveum is just simply a dunce.  Tonight's game demonstrates this fact.  Garza was sitting around 80 pitches after five innings.  He was supposedly on a pitch count of 90 so you might have allowed him to at least start the sixth.

But OK, he had a tough fifth, so I can see going to the bullpen.  But come on, Hector Rondon, who is a mop up guy?  Three of the next four batters for the Pirates were left-handed, so an obvious choice might have been Russell, but no, we go to the twelfth man Rondon.  Bases loaded.  Russell comes in to pitch around Alvarez and walks in a run.  Then we go to, that's right, to the eleventh man, Shawn Camp, who is having a truly atrocious season, but who is one of Dale's bonafide favorites of all time.  Well, you know what happens, and, of course, no one is warming up so that even after the grand slam puts the Pirates in command, we have to endure another bases loaded jam before the side is finally retired.

There were two moves. actually three if you count leaving Garza in, to be made there.  One was to go straight to Russell.  The other was to bring out Villanueva, whose turn Garza was taking, and who had not pitched in five days.  He might have given you three innings if necessary.  Go figure.

This game is not an isolated instance of certifiable dumbness.  It happens every day.  But it is not limited to just in-game decisions.  By and large, the Cubs are not improving in the field or at the plate.  Some of this must be due not merely to having dumb players, but to having poor instruction as well.  If you watch these games on TV even, you will notice that throws from the outfield rarely go to the right base or the right cutoff man.

You will also notice that the Cubs rarely score unless they hit a home run or the pitcher drives in runners who are on-base.  Similarly you will notice they rarely produce long, gritty, grinding at-bats until the ninth inning when the game is pretty much lost, but you can come in and whine in the post-game interviews about how you nearly pulled that one out, dadgummit.

Report Card

The season is about a quarter done now, so maybe it is time to take stock of the Cubs thus far.  The verdict is probably that they are a little better than last year, but, of course, that makes matters all the more frustrating.  Lets be realistic, this team is still likely to lose ninety games this season, and possibly more if they follow the same strategy as last season and trade veteran players, mainly pitchers, i.e., salary, for marginal prospects.

For what it is worth, however, here is an off-hand evaluation:

Starting Pitching: Better, especially starting pitchers.  Wood has been exceptionally good.  Feldman has been surprisingly good after a slow start.  Jackson has been a disappointment.  Samardzija has been inconsistent after a great start.  Villanueva has pitched badly after a great start.  Villanueva has been relegated to the bullpen with the anticipated return of Matt Garza.  I would have to say the starting pitching is probably the strongest point of their game and likely to keep them reasonably competitive through the remainder of the season were it not for the seeming obsession of current management and the Chicago press that trading veteran pitching for minor league talent that is a long way from being ready for the major leagues is a recipe for long-term success.  The likelihood of the Cubs repeating their July fire sale means we are likely to be giving the same assessment of matters this time next year.

Relief Pitching:  Inconsistent at best, awful at worst.  Marmol has been pretty bad.  Fujikawa was hurt early and has not recovered his Japanese form.  Gregg has been surprisingly good.  I have my doubts about this trend continuing.  Russell has been consistent, but they need another left-hander.  Camp has been awful.  He should have been released in the off-season.  Bowden has rightly been DFAed to make room for Garza.  Rondon is a work in progress .  Villanueva will help stabilize things.  He is, in any case, a substantial upgrade over Bowden.

Catcher:  Another bright spot.  Castillo has been very good defensively and as a hitter.  Navarro is a terrible defensive catcher, but he can hit occasionally and is a decent veteran backup and pinch-hitter.

First Base: Rizzo has turned things around since a slow, homer-oriented, start.  He seems to be able to handle left-handed pitching now.  Undoubtedly the Cubs best player.

Second Base: Barney's injury set him and the Cubs back a lot.  He is starting to come around to his usual hitting production, not spectacular, but acceptable enough given his superior defensive skills.

Shortstop: Sveum made a couple of perceptive remarks over the weekend that apply very much to Castro in particular.  He said Castro could be as good a player as he wanted to be and that the Cubs in general should not be considered a young, inexperienced team.  Castro is now in his fourth full season as the Cubs shortstop.  His defense is still as inconsistent as it was when he came up from AA ball.  His hitting approach, I would argue, is worse or, at best, unchanged.  Castro now has a .273 BA with a .304 OBP and a .692 OPS.  This puts him down in Soriano territory in terms of average and OBP without Soriano's home run power.  Lets face it, unless Castro improves, he is a below average player right now.  Maybe changing his position is the answer, but, right now, I would consider trading him while his perceived value and potential are still high.

Third Base: Valbuena and Ransom have provided a decent platoon at this position.  Realistically, though, Valbuena is a good utility infielder and Ransom is likely to bottom out.  If Vitters is the future of the franchise or if they have to rely on Stewart regaining his hitting form, the Cubs are in trouble long-term at this position until one of the lower minors prospects is ready or until Baez, still a lower minors prospect, changes position.  Maybe they should have held on to Ramirez after all.

Right Field: Schierholtz has been a reasonable left-handed platoon player.  Hairston has been an inadequate right-handed counterpart.  This position is another weakness.

Center Field: David DeJesus has been fine here.  He is a pretty good leadoff hitter.  His defense is adequate.  Right now I rather think he is better suited to a corner outfield position.  The Cubs are likely to trade him before the deadline.  Of all the Cubs players, he is probably worth most to a potential contender and the Cubs are well stocked with place-holders at this position in Sweeney and Borbon.  Borbon, if he played everyday, might be more than a short-term solution.

Left Field: Soriano will probably come on as the weather warms up.  If he does so, the Cubs need to get rid of him ASAP.  Soriano is still a defensive liability and his approach to hitting, to the extent it rubs off on other players, is a bad influence, and, in general, an insult to everyone who knows how baseball should be played.

Bench: Adequate.  We've pretty much covered everyone to the extent they are platoon players.  Only good teams need a superior bench anyway.

AAA Call-ups: Not much to write about here.  Vitters is hitting home runs since returning to the lineup, but he did that last year and flopped when he came up to the big leagues.  Jackson has not turned it around either, still strikes out a lot.  They don't seem to have a standout pitching prospect here.

The Surge?

Well, maybe not quite that, but the Cubs have been playing better of late.  After a truly awful effort Friday night in Washington behind Jeff Samardzija, the Cubs took advantage of some Nationals mistakes on Saturday, and then took the rubber match Sunday and the Rockies opener behind excellent pitching efforts from Feldman and Wood.

I have to say that Wood has been a revelation this season.  He is arguably the most consistent starter in the NL.  And I have to eat some crow in the matter of Feldman, who has turned his season around of late.

Actually starting pitching has become the Cubs strength of late.  Their five starters match up very well in terms of performance against anyone in their division, even the Cardinals.  So far, anyway.  Samardzija seems to have taken a step back from his early April dominance and I don't know what to think about Jackson, who just has not delivered at all.  Even his win on Saturday was shaky.

So, at any rate, it gives you something to watch, at least until Epstein and Hoyer break it all up in July.  They will have an interesting problem when Garza comes off the DL.  Who goes to the bullpen?  Logically it has to be Jackson, but then he has the big contract.

Of course, everyone is hell-bent on trading away Garza, who, by the time he settles in will have virtually no trade value whatsoever.  I've never been able to comprehend the notion that Garza is worth a lot in trade or that he should be traded.  If they wanted to dump him, the 2010-12 off-season was the time to do it.  Personally, I would like to see him extended.  He is certainly better than Jackson and probably could be signed for a similar price if he is healthy.

On another front, the Cubs signed Anthony Rizzo to long-term deal.  This, unlike the Castro signing, was a smart move.  Rizzo looks like the professional hitter they have been seeking for a while.  He started out poorly this spring, especially against left-handers, but now he seems to be hitting everyone and taking a good approach.

I expect the Cubs will lock up Wood and Samardzija if they continue to pitch well.  They will likely select one of the stud pitchers, Gray or Appel, with their first round choice in the amateur draft, so that means they will definitely trade one or two of their current starters.  If they keep Garza, it probably means Villanueva and/or Feldman.

The Cubs have nothing coming as far as pitching goes in the high minors, so they might want to think twice about this, especially as the returns are not likely to be that great.  Also, Villanueva and Feldman have been successful swing men, so that given the current state of the bullpen even with Fujikawa coming off the DL and Gregg pitching well.

The best trade chips they have now are DeJesus and Hairston in terms of bringing a decent return, maybe a top ten prospect or two.  None of their current players are likely to bring major talent their way.

Big Mistake

I saw today that Dale Sveum had named Kevin Gregg the official closer.  Big mistake.  Not that Gregg has done badly.  Actually he has done surprisingly well.  I just think that when you do not really have a genuine closer, you are better off using the closer by committee approach.  Tony LaRussa did it for years with the Cardinals.  Not only does it take pressure off the guy who is anointed, it encourages competition for that slot.  If you do not have a player who fits a role, why pretend that you do?

As far as the Cubs play this week, after an awful series against the Reds, the Cubs played well to beat the Rangers in a make-up game.  My apologies to Feldman, he has pitched well of late.  Wood continued to impress against the Cardinals as the Cubs picked up a nice 2-1 win.

Apparently, Sveum failed to clarify some of the other bullpen roles for today's game.  Villanueva certainly deserved a better fate, pitching into the seventh with a 4-3 lead.  Taking him out for the usually reliable Russell with two down proved to be costly as Russell surrendered the tying run.  Michael Bowden must be the new Sean Camp.  Not the guy to go to in the eighth inning, that's for sure.

Lots of questionable decisions in this game, beginning with the lineup.  Bullpen management problematical.  Not pinch hitting for Schierholtz in the eighth inning.  Not going to the bench to start the ninth.

More Bad Baseball

Since my last post, the Cubs lost two of the remaining three games to the Padres and the first game of the Reds series.  It may be time to rethink the premise of this blog, in that it is getting pretty tiresome to say the same things over and over again.

The Wood game is a case in point, a game the team should certainly have won were it not for a total defensive collapse in the eighth inning, one of numerous total defensive collapses this season.  Lost in the shuffle was the key Sveum move of replacing Wood with Camp, who promptly threw a wild pitch and walked the only hitter he faced.

The Cubs had used no relief pitchers in Wednesday's game when Feldman went the distance, so they had Marmol, Russell, and Gregg available on Thursday.  I questioned the wisdom of signing Camp after he had a decent year in 2012.  These journeymen guys in the twilight of their careers rarely bounce back the next season after 70 or more appearances.  Sveum seems to have a peculiar affection for Camp which is a little hard to fathom.

Yesterday was one of the worst performances by the Cubs all year.  Fifteen hits and three walks, but they could manage only five runs, three of which scored in the bottom of the ninth when they decided belatedly to start actually working the count (two of the walks came in the ninth and one drove in a run).

One observation on the bullpen management by Sveum.  They were losing 4-2 after six innings, but they decided to use Bowden and Loe in relief.  These are the guys you use in lost games.  The result was the Reds managed to add two more runs to effectively put the game out of reach.

Now no one expected the Cubs to contend.  The worrisome part, though, is that they still show the same tendencies they have shown through the past lean seasons.  There is no improvement here.  They still fall apart defensively after any kind of tough break.  They still consistently miss the cutoff man on nearly every outfield throw no matter who is playing.  They still fail to deliver with men on base.

Starting pitching has improved, but the worry here is that as the season wears on, pitching under the constant pressure of close games without run support will take its toll and this aspect of the Cubs game will deteriorate as well.

Maybe next time we will discuss what the Cubs need to do to improve, which has nothing to do with threatening to move to Rosemont or building a new scoreboard.