Opening Day

The Cubs lost a tough game to the Pirates this afternoon.  Not a whole lot you can say about it.  Neither team has the ability to score runs, so it was just a question of which relief pitcher would make a big mistake first.  In this case it was Villanueva.

Samardzija was much more dominant than Liriano, but it was pretty much for naught.  This does bring up some interesting observations about how the Cubs managed the game.  I rather think Renteria played this very defensively, more or less so he would not be criticized.  I really hope this is not an omen of things to come.

There were a lot of safe choices made that, in the end, turned out badly for the Cubs.  First off was removing Samardzija after seven innings.  He had thrown 89 pitches, which, to my mind, means he had another inning in the tank.  This means that instead of using three pitchers to get through the last two innings, you would only have needed one, a significant thing given the weakness of the Cubs bullpen.  In that case,Villanueva, a spot starter and not a late inning guy, would never have been in the game.

Not to belabor the criticism of handling the bullpen, but facing the bottom of the Pirates order in the tenth, and the first two hitters being left-handed, the move is to bring in Wright.  This turns Walker, the only guy who can really hurt you, to the right side of the plate, where he is a much weaker hitter and has virtually no power.  That or bring in Veras with the idea of getting into the eleventh with the heart of your order coming to bat.

Some further observations, to wit, what's with all the bunting?  There has been enough written to demonstrate how stupid the sacrifice bunt is, but apparently Renteria has not read it.  OK, the pitcher with men on first and second and no outs, maybe, even though it is early in the game.  Of course, the pitcher has to execute the bunt.  In this case, it turned into a double play.

The other two bunts, though, made no sense whatsoever.  Fast runner, Bonafacio, at first and no outs with Lake at bat.  What's the point of that?  And the worst yet, having Castillo bunt after the Valbuena walk.

Renteria clearly likes the platoon thing and the lefty-righty and vice-versa match-up.  OK, I suppose, but none of them worked out to much of an advantage on the offensive side and the move to bat Sweeney, who has never had a clutch hit in his life, for Barney, a tough out late in the game, was inexcusable.  You have to think that substituting a good left-handed hitter makes sense but that substituting a mediocre left-handed hitter is dumb.

Now that I have warmed up about the manager's style, I have got to wonder who filled out the lineup card.  Castro batting third?  Castro hit with men on base four times.  He collected a walk and three groundouts, all early in the count and two of them weak rollers on outside pitches he tried to pull.  The groundout with Bonafacio at third was just an awful at bat.  In that situation, you look for a pitch you can hit in the air, but the problem with Castro in a RBI spot is just his complete lack of situational hitting capacity.

You wonder why these guy lose a hundred games every year.  Losing games like this is part of the answer.

Roster Moves

The Cubs made a couple of roster moves that may indicate they are finally getting around to thinking about fielding a competitive team even though that accomplishment is still a distant prospect.  They waived Donnie Murphy and George Kottaras.

I have to say that - and I think it is probably irrational on my part - there are just some players I cannot stand, and that Donnie Murphy is one of them.  I suppose he represents the kind of weird line of thinking that has led the Cubs to field a team of placeholders the past two years.  Also I cannot abide all this talk from sportswriters and commentators about having had such a productive platoon at third base with Luis Valbuena and Donnie Murphy and who knows what other right-handed "bats."

Lets face it, these right-handed platoon guys were just awful players and Valbuena is a good utility infielder.  The fact they have dumped Murphy indicates they have gone at least half-way to realizing these facts and that they are going to bring Olt north, likely as their starting third baseman.  The Rangers must be pretty desperate to pick Murphy up, but that is good news as well as they are probably not willing to pay the price for Barney.

The other roster move was to dump Kottaras.  I've got nothing against him, but I never could see the sense of bringing him over from the Royals in the first place.  He can hit a little if he plays a lot, but as a backup he is pretty much worthless since you want a solid defender in that role and Kottaras doesn't fill that bill.  John Baker, on the other hand, has had a good spring, hits left-handed and can handle pitchers pretty well.

An Interesting Article

I saw this piece referenced at another website, MLB Trade Rumors, I think.  It is kind of a standard puff piece touting up the Cleveland Indians, but what struck me as more than casually interesting was the fact that their long time owner was determined to turn the team around quickly and made just a couple of moves to do so.

The Indians were one of the big turnaround stories last year, going from being as execrable as the Cubs and just about in the same position in terms of record and roster to winning 92 games and making the playoffs for the first time in years.

How did they do it?  Well, some of their young players finally realized their potential, they went out and signed some free agents (Bourn, Swisher, Jimenez), and they hired a real manager.  This apparently sent a message to the team that they wanted to win.  Actually Bourn and Swisher had disappointing seasons, but the team itself took on a new demeanor.

Compare this to the Cubs who are content to announce to the world not to expect much, that they are pretty much built to lose.  One of the real problems with this approach is that the players will tend to play up to expectations.  If they expect to lose consistently, they will manage to do so.  The real worry is that placing genuinely talented young players in this environment may mean they will continue the tradition.

Will Any Top Prospects Make the Opening Day Roster?

I don't always agree with Jesse Rogers, but in this case I do.  He makes a strong argument for the Cubs heading north with Mike Olt, Javier Baez, and Chris Rusin on the team.  We'll see.  As much as Baez has impressed, I do not see the Cubs deviating from their plans unless they trade Castro or Barney before opening day.

Incidentally, aside from the ever-present speculation on Samardzija, there were rumors this week the Tigers were interested in Shierholtz and/or Barney.  Shierholtz I can see, Barney is a tougher proposition.  I could see the  Cubs going after a guy like Porcello, who is still pretty young and looks to be poised for a breakout year, but it is going to take more than this combo to pry him loose.  Maybe if the Cubs dangle Castro, assuming he is healthy, they could accomplish something.

I, for one, would do this deal.  Even though Barney has not progressed much offensively, he is such a stabilizing influence with his defense and heady play that, in the long run, a team with a lot of offensive pop, as the Cubs project to be, can carry a guy like him with no problems.

Castro, on the other hand, looks like he peaked in his sophomore season and that that year, in a best case scenario, is all you will ever get.  Looking deeper into his numbers, it is not as much as you would think at first glance.

Not to Worry, Move Along Now

Trying to digest the latest spring training and trade rumors does not provide much short-term hope for Cubs fans.  Probably not all that much long-term promise either, more along the lines of tempered hope at best.

Basically, the rotation seems to be in a shambles if we are to judge by spring training results.  Arrietta is still hurt.  MacDonald went down yesterday and is likely through.  He had shoulder problems last year with the Pirates and, to be honest, it looks like he has had the same issues all through this spring except that this time they were more acute.  Hammel isn't exactly turning heads, but he is probably this year's version of Maholm or Feldman.

The rotation now seems to be Wood, Samardzija, Jackson, and who knows.  Plus they seem to be thinking about trading Samardzija again, a subject we have discussed before and concluded makes no sense whatsoever.

Aside from the bullpen and known quantities mentioned above, the most promising performances have come from two finesse pitchers, Hendricks and Rusin.  For some reason, the Cubs seem intent on recruiting hard throwers and downplaying the future of everyone else.  For my money, Rusin should start the season in the rotation and Hendricks should go to AAA with a possible call-up as things progress, i.e., when they finally trade Hammel or give up on him.

As for the rest of the plan, we are assured by those in the know that Bryant is a sure-fire star in the making who could be ready this year, but will be allowed to languish another season in the minors because the Cubs plan calls for losing big for at least another year and they are too cheap to risk a promotion that would accelerate his free agency clock.  The same goes for Baez.  Olt looks good so far and I would not be surprised to see him come North as the starting third baseman.

Castro is still limping along.  Castro was hurt in spring training last year as well, again the hamstring, which makes you wonder whether this guy works out in the off-season at all or whether the Cubs are too dumb not to restrain his largely unsuccessful base-stealing efforts to later in the spring.  In any case, should he not be ready for opening day, this presents another serious problem for the team.  Ought they to bring Baez along.  I rather doubt this will happen, but it is an interesting thought nonetheless.

Looking down the road, the Cubs seem to have nothing but infielders, particularly shortstops and third basemen, on the horizon.  Clearly someone is going to have to change positions or be traded, possibly both.  Personally I would trade Castro if he returns to his previous batting form and go with Baez at short, hang onto Barney even if he hits .260, and move Bryant to right field if Olt continues to hit.  The real problem they will have even in this scenario is the complete lack of left-handed hitting.  In their best case visions if all their most promising prospects pan out, they have only one left-handed batter in their future plans.

Spring Training So Far

So far this team looks like a continuation of past seasons, which means, of course, spotty pitching, no patience, no runs, not much excitement.  Yesterday, Dale Sveum, now the third base coach of the Royals, visited Mesa.  He said he had no regrets and would not have done anything differently. I suppose that is why he was fired.

The biggest disappointment to date is really the strategy the Cubs have adopted in their early games in terms of who is getting a serious look.  These games seem designed to showcase some of the marginal talent competing for roster spots, the guys who are non-roster invitees or players signed to minor league contracts, not the decent regular players or the hot-shot prospects.  Kind an odd perspective for a team this bad.

In all honesty, in particular if you look at the 40-man roster, there is not much room to add or subtract without running into protected prospects.  So, partly as a result of this, for a team still in rebuild mode and for a team that is so appallingly bad, there are relatively view spots at issue.  Go figure.

Some of this apparent contradiction is the result of the Cubs development plan for young players, which consists in bringing them along quite methodically through each level of the minor leagues, as well as being too cheap to let prospects accumulate major league playing time while the Cubs are unlikely to contend. This is a bit of Catch-22 for the kids, as the Cubs are likely to contend only if they eventually bring up the kids and let them play.

In any case, the Cubs have major league talent at only four positions: catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop.  Also, it is not as if the talent at these positions is without question marks.  Strangely enough, I guess in view of his bad 2013 season offensively, Darwin Barney's job is in doubt. Management keeps trotting out the flawed utility man Emilio Bonifacio as some sort of alternative. Bonifacio is fast and steals bases. A problem with his game, however, is he hardly ever gets on base. Also, he cannot catch or throw.

As to the other positions, someone is under the illusion that guys like Murphy and Valbuena and Ruggiano and Sweeney and Schierholtz are players who belong in the lineup every day and can provide a transition to better things.  If they were, the Cubs would not have lost over a hundred games in 2012 and nearly as many in 2013.  Still, these guys will all be coming north with the team.

Given the fact the Cubs will break camp with 12 pitchers and two catchers, when you add in the players who seem to have a lock on spots to fill out the remaining 11, it leaves very little competition to be had and very little improvement to anticipate. Assuming the Cubs stick with the third base platoon of Murphy and Valbuena, that means there is only one slot for certain left for the infield, a slot seemingly reserved for the aforementioned Bonifacio. Pretty depressing, eh?  Even if Olt is given a shot at third base, that just means they will cut Murphy.

Now, assuming Lake, Schierholtz, Ruggiano, and Sweeney are locks,  you get only two remaining roster spots to fill, likely a utility infielder and a reserve outfielder. What is kind of puzzling, though, is how tight the 40 man roster is packed and how little room for manoueuvre exists.  Maybe some of the pitchers like Dallas Bieler are expendable, but certainly none of the outfielders are likely to go to make room for a Chris Coglan, for example.  Nor are any of the infielders likely to be cut loose.  Maybe Logan Watkins would clear waivers.

So not only is the roster tight and the major league ready talent thin, but you have to wonder why all these non-roster invitees are playing now.  I mean, there are fifteen position players in this category and the only prospects among them are Baez and Almora, so how come these other guys are getting such a hard look?  To my mind, it rather telegraphs management's intentions, which are to pretty much hold back any talent and field another team that is just as bad as was fielded the past two seasons.  In fact, almost the identical team.  It makes you wonder, doesn't it?