What a Finish!

The Cubs closed out the home season in grand style Sunday and Monday nights behind two shutout performances.  I was out at the park Sunday night and the atmosphere, despite the prior two losses to Pittsburgh, was electric.  I mean, people were standing up and pulling for Arrieta in the fifth inning, which is a little weird, but indicative of the level of excitement.  I really thought Arrieta had a shot at a second no-hitter.  His stuff is so good and so hard to hit that he really has a shot at this sort of performance every time he starts, which is why you really have to like the Cubs chances in a one-game playoff no matter where it is played.

Monday's game was a classic pitchers duel between Hendricks and Ventura.  In this case, Ventura carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before Soler broke it up.  After that, when the starters had been pulled, it was just a matter of which manager would run out of bullpen bullets first.  In this case, it was Yost who blinked or at least showed reluctance to use his closer in a tie game on the road.  Instead he brought in the rookie Almonte, who had given up three homers in eight innings of work this season.  Denorfia blasted his first pitch high into the left field bleachers to win the game.  Denorfia rarely plays much these days, so it must have been a real fillip for him to get the winning hit.

The picture above is from Sunday night's game and shows Castro being greeted after hitting what was at first called a home run and later reversed to a double.  It still scored two insurance runs in a big inning that put the game pretty much out of reach.

Hammel!

The Cubs lost on Saturday to the Pirates, mainly thanks to Jason Hammel, who cannot seem to get out of the fifth inning with a lead or a tie.  I noted in an earlier post that the Hammel game was the key to the Cubs chances of catching Pittsburgh.  Hammel has just not been the same pitcher since the All-Star Break.  Maybe it is the hamstring injury or maybe he just doesn't pitch well for an entire season.  My recollection is that he pitched pretty poorly for Oakland last year down the stretch after the Cubs traded him off in the Russell deal.  In any case, he does present a bit of a problem for Maddon in setting up the rotation should the Cubs move on after the one-game playoff for the wild card slot.

It also sets up a similar dilemma for next year.  The Cubs will almost certainly try to land a big name big money starter from free agency and they are also likely to try to trade to get a younger arm like Tyson Ross in return for either Castro or Baez.  Haren has announced his retirement already, but this situation makes Hammel fairly expendable as well unless he turns things around pretty quickly.

Anyway, all this leaves the Cubs in a precarious position in terms of catching the Pirates for home field advantage.  They are 5 1/2 behind now and even assuming they win Sunday night (a fair assumption given that Arrieta is starting) and Monday as well in the make-up game against the Royals, it still leaves them four games back.  They would need to win all the rest of their games against Cincinnati and Milwaukee and hope the Cardinals sweep the Pirates and that Pittsburgh loses at least one of the remaining games against the Reds after that.  A pretty tall order.

The Cubs celebration of clinching a post-season spot came as rather an anti-climax after Saturday's game.  They were celebrating nearly twenty-four hours after backing in and after consecutive losses as well.  Still, it is a considerable achievement and certainly a harbinger of things to come.

I managed to get tickets for the Sunday night game, which should be fun.  The atmosphere should be wild and I'm looking forward to watching Arrieta pitch in person, which I haven't done this season.

Cubs Clinch Post-Season Appearance

Admittedly though the back door, as the Giants lost to the A's to eliminate themselves.

Friday's game was typical of the meetings between the top three in the NL Central.  As we have noted before, there isn't much between them.  Both Lester and Cole pitched excellent games.  Lester left behind 2-1, but what turned out to be the deciding run came against Pedro Strop in the eighth after a couple of sloppy plays behind him.  Montero muffed the third strike to the Pirates leadoff man Jordy Mercer.  Later on, the Pirates scored on a groundball to Castro that he was forced to play to first base after apparently failing to get a good enough grip on the ball to attempt a play at the plate.  Tough luck, I guess, but in my mind Russell or Baez makes that play and saves a run.

The run turned out to be important when the Cubs scored in the bottom of the ninth inning on a double by Denorfia and a triple by Castro.  Soler and Baez struck out swinging to end the game.  Soler was the key there, as one would expect Baez to whiff in those circumstances.  So the real difference was that Starling Marte was able to put a ball in play with a runner on third and Soler was not.

Looking ahead, the Hammel game tomorrow is still the key.  Should the Cubs win, they still have a chance to catch the Pirates for home field.  They pretty much have to run the table to do it, but the Pirates do have to play three games against the Cardinals.  The Pirates elimination number is six, so even if they lose the last two to the Cubs in Chicago, they still have a mathematical shot at the Cards and the Cards will be looking to close them out when they meet next week.

I still like the Cubs chances to advance to the wild card slot with Arrieta pitching.  Arrieta matches up well against nearly everyone.  Cole pitched well Friday, but the Cubs were able to run up the pitch count a bit.  They were a little unlucky to create most of their early chances with Ross or Lester due up.  That will not be the case next time.

Brewers Series

The Cubs took the series from the Brewers 2-1.  I thought they should have swept, but they ran into the kind of young pitcher who gives them fits, not a hard thrower, but good command, changes speeds, etc.  Actually kind of a mirror image of Hendricks who pitched really well also.  One thing I don't get is Maddon's reliance on Grimm, especially coming into game situations where he needs to shut the door and lately hasn't done so.  As I noted before, Grimm seems to have taken a vow never to throw another strike.  I'm sure it is frustrating for him, but it is really frustrating to watch this guy mess up almost every time he pitches.

As to the other games, what can you say about Arrieta that hasn't been said?  This guy is really in a groove right now and you have to like his chances in a single game playoff.

I managed to get out to the park on Monday night.  The photo above is of Javier Baez getting ready to pinch hit late in the game.  He hit a double in that at-bat, I think.  The Cubs put on quite a show offensively.  Soler especially seems to be coming around fresh just when he is needed.  Hammel, on the other hand, was just awful.  He was lucky to hang around long enough to get the win Monday night.

The Cubs have an off-day Thursday before the Pirates come in for three games over the weekend.  Realistically, the Cubs need to sweep them to have a legitimate shot at catching them for home field in the wild card game.  That would put them either half-a-game up or half-a-game back depending on how the Pirates do in their Thursday game.  Apparently, the Cubs will skip Haren's turn in that series, going with Lester, Hammel, and Arrieta.  Hammel's game is the key one in terms of sweeping.

Cubs-Cards Series

The Cubs took the weekend series from the Cardinals two games to one.  As Maddon stated after the game, they proved they could play with these guys.  They might easily have swept had Hayward's throw to just nip Rizzo at home in the eighth inning been a little off-line.  Then again, had Russell not made a spectacular play to get the last out in Saturday's game, the Cards might have taken the series, not the Cubs.  As we noted earlier on this blog, right now there is not a lot of difference between the top three in the NL Central and they are clearly the best teams in the National League.  Too bad one of them will sit out the playoffs.

Hard to realize the Cubs have only seven more home games remaining and only thirteen left in the regular season.  The Pirates series ought to be something next weekend and it will probably determine who has home field advantage in the one game wild card playoff.  I like the Cubs chances here, as the Cubs get to go head-to-head at home with Pittsburgh and the Pirates have the tougher schedule remaining.

The Cubs play a three game series with the Brewers to begin the week.  Logically, they ought to sweep, but, of course, the Cubs have historically played sloppy baseball against the Brewers.  The Brewers have always played sloppy ball against the Cubs as well, but, then, this year they have played badly against everyone.  This is a nice series to get Hammel and Hendricks some confidence going into the stretch run.

Quite a Road Trip

The Cubs won a slugfest Thursday afternoon to complete a 3-1 series sweep in Pittsburgh.  The victory followed a really exciting extra-inning win Wednesday night.  All in all, the Cubs finished up 7-4 on the trip, which is, I think, rather more than they expected when they set off.  More significantly, the team actually had a chance to win all of the games they dropped.

It will be interesting to see how things play out from here.  The Cubs certainly have a shot at overtaking the Pirates and a long shot at besting the Cards.  Looking at the Pirates, I would have to conclude that the Cubs have a certain advantage in a short series mainly because their starting pitching, as unreliable as the back end has proved through the month of September so far, is superior in that they have two lights-out aces in Arrieta and Lester, whereas the Pirates, as consistent as they may be, have only Gerrit Cole who approaches that level.

Cubs Split Double-Header

The Cubs split a double-header with the Pirates on Tuesday, avoiding a complete disaster and snapping a three game losing streak of games they possibly and probably could have won.  The first game was a bit of a nightmare.  The Cubs managed to work up the pitch count on Cole and give themselves a chance, tying the game at 4.  Then they turned the ball over to Justin Grimm, which turned out to be a big mistake.  Not that he was super-awful, but this guy has apparently taken a vow never to throw strikes.  He walked the first batter, which is pretty much what he always does lately.  The pinch runner promptly stole second base and, owing to Castro's failure to block the throw from Montero, wound up at third with nobody out.  So much for that one.

The truth is there is very little difference between the top three teams in the NL Central in terms of talent and ability, so most of the contests from here on out are going to turn on breaks and mistakes as well as dominant or heroic performances.  The Cubs salvaged the nightcap mainly on the strength of a superb complete game from Lester, who, I suppose, demonstrated why the team is paying him a gazillion dollars.  Some guys are money players and Lester seems to be one for sure.  I was glad to see Maddon forego the chance to call on the bullpen in yet another pressure spot.  The Cubs did not cash in on a lot of scoring chances in Game 2, but they played stellar defense and that, coupled with Lester's dominance, won the day.

As an aside, everybody is talking about the question marks in terms of the fifth starter in the Cubs rotation, but the real problem since the All-Star Break has been Hammel, who, since his hamstring strain or for whatever reason, has been more than iffy as their #3.  You can advance in post-season with two really good starters and a couple of reliable bullpen arms, but it is a lot easier with a third starter who can at least get you into the seventh inning.  Right now, Hammel is not that guy by a long shot.

The Cubs have Arrieta going on Wednesday night, so the odds are they can at least split the Pirates series and come back with a winning road trip heading into their final homestand.

A Disappointing Series

The Cubs split the four game series with Philadelphia, a series one would have expected them to sweep or at least win three of the four games.  After winning the double-header on Friday, the Cubs lost the next two, thanks largely to bullpen meltdowns.  There were also some questionable managerial decisions involved as well.  Clayton Richard pitched pretty well for three innings, got in trouble in his fourth inning, eventually throwing a wild pitch to allow the lead run to score.  Watching the replay, although the ball was in the dirt, it is a ball that Montero has to block.

A sloppy play by Rizzo opened the door Saturday night as well.  Still, Maddon has shown a lot of confidence in Justin Grimm even though lately there seems precious little reason to do so.  Grimm has an ERA over 10 in his last seven appearances and his numbers have been going south for the past month.

There is little doubt the bullpen is the team's Achilles heel right now.  Although they have a bunch of guys out there, it is pretty clear the only guy who pitches with any confidence is Rondon, and probably the only guys who can be counted on in a pinch more often than not are Rondon and Strop, maybe Wood and Richard and Cahill with the right match-ups.

Anything less than a split in the Pittsburgh series is going to put the team's wild card position in some jeopardy coming into the Cardinals series.  They have an off-day to regroup, but that double-header Tuesday could be a big problem.  They can pretty well count on getting seven innings from Lester and the same from Arrieta on Wednesday, but Hammel, of course, is pretty iffy.

Good Series, Tough Loss

The Cubs won the Cardinals series 2-1 and came within 2/3 of an inning of a sweep.  After Wednesday's game, Maddon was looking for lessons and sort of came to the conclusion the loss would toughen the team up and that they had to execute, meaning, I suppose, that Strop should not have walked that guy and the Richard and Rodney messed up as well.  Also that the team was upset and disheartened not to have swept the series and that was a good thing.

Actually, you can make a case that this one, and likely most of the bullpen meltdowns over the course of the season, come about as a natural consequence of Maddon's style of handling the bullpen and his starting pitchers.  I'm not saying that style is indefensible, just that there are some drawbacks in going to the pen in the fifth or sixth inning a lot, namely that sooner or later, these guys, unless they are really, really good, are going to get tired or choke or both.

Maddon has relied on Grimm, Strop, and Rondon for most of the pressure spots this year, and it is pretty clear that Rondon is the only guy he can really count on to get crucial outs or shut down the opposing team.  That's not to say these guys cannot come back.  Arrieta pitches tomorrow, so that probably means the pen will get a respite.  But the thing is that the bullpen is by no means comparable to, say, the Royals last year, so you are going to get these situations every now and again.

Also, there really was an alternative to calling on Strop to start the eighth inning and that, of course, was to leave Lester in the game.  Lester had pitched seven scoreless innings after a shaky first and had allowed only one base-runner all that time.  Granted he had thrown around 100 pitches, and granted we don't know whether he was out of gas or what, but he seemed to be in complete command to that point.

A Great Start

The Cubs managed to rout the Cardinals on Labor Day 9-0 behind a terrific performance from Dan Haren who gave them seven shutout innings.  I had expected Haren to find some kind of groove before the season ended - he has been just too consistent a pitcher not to do so - but he was really good on Monday.  Granted he was staked to an eight run lead after three innings, but the Cubs have blown a couple of big leads in St. Louis this season, so this was big.

Anyway, the team is off on another high after sweeping Arizona to close out the homestand.  Make no mistake, though, this is going to be a tough road trip, what with two more games against the Cards and a four game series with the Phillies sandwiched between the Cards and four games in Pittsburgh.  Right now the Cubs look certain to be the second wildcard team.  The Nationals and the Giants are eight games or so behind them.  They have easier schedules than the Cubs, but they still have key late series against their principal division rivals, the Mets and the Dodgers respectively.  In addition, the Giants have been pretty much in free fall since they took the Cubs series 2-1.

As we noted before, the Cubs are playing really well by and large as a team.  It's not just Rizzo and Bryant and Schwarber, but actually Fowler and Russell have been carrying the team of late as well.  We got a look at C.J. Edwards who, until this season was thought of as the best Cubs starting prospect.  This year he has switched to relief, maybe not permanently.  He pitched only one inning yesterday, but his stuff looked good and he was helped immensely by a great double play.

Another Series Loss

The Cubs dropped the Reds series two games to one, a pretty ugly scene and one that is hard to understand given just how bad a team the Reds have become these days.  Wednesday's loss was especially brutal given that Bryant had just tied the game on a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth only to open the floodgates with an error in the top of the ninth.  Rondon was really unlucky there giving up the scratch hit and then the error with two outs.  Not to second guess Maddon again, but you have to wonder why they are giving Votto, possibly the hottest hitter in baseball since the All-Star break, anything to hit in that situation, especially going 2-0 to start him out.

As far as the last minute pickups go, Austin Jackson has been pretty solid thus far and Fernando Rodney has looked pretty good as well.  Javier Baez looks a lot slimmer than last year, but the jury still has to be out on him.  Granted he has been a little more under control so far, but his swing still seems a little too big and a lot more violent than it needs to be.  I suppose he has more potential now than Castro who has really worn out his welcome fast.

Arizona comes to town Friday.  This is another mediocre team the Cubs need to sweep if only to demonstrate they are legitimate contenders, especially with the pitching matchups that are likely for the series.