Wild Games

The Cubs lost a game on Saturday they would and should normally have won, then came back to score an improbable victory Sunday night in a game they had no business even contesting.  I had a chance to score tickets for Sunday, but passed it up because the Cubs were going to start  Matucz instead of Hendricks.  I was congratulating myself for the wisdom of my decision after three innings with the team down 6-0.  Later on, of course, I changed my mind.

I cannot dispute the idea of giving the starters an extra day off.  However, Matusz?  I mean, this guy should be put on the first bus back to Iowa or parts unknown.  He was seriously bad, and the Cubs were lucky they were down only six runs when Maddon finally pulled him.  The ESPN guys were speculating that starting him was some sort of showcase effort.  In that case, it misfired for sure.

Things got a lot better once Matusz was gone.  Edwards continues to impress.  The crowd was treated to another Maddon magic show when he swapped out Wood and Strop for a couple of innings.  Maddon is either a genius or lucky as hell.  Strop gave up a long fly ball to left that Travis Wood somehow wandered around and caught against the ivy.  Later on, in the twelfth inning, he pulled another rabbit out of the hat, using Jon Lester to pinch hit a squeeze bunt with two strikes to win the game.

This may be a team of destiny.  Who knows?  Along the way, they played some serious, hustling baseball.  Contreras beat the relay on an almost certain double play in the ninth to score a run.  Later he made a marvelous catch near the bullpen on a ball most left-fielders would have given up on.  Russell made several dazzling stops and throws.  Heyward, who has been stinking things up at the plate for most of the season, finally delivered a key double to start the twelfth, alertly advanced to third on Contreras' fly to center, and scored on the Lester bunt with a perfect read.

It looks as if the Cubs are done dealing with the Chapman trade, but you kind of wonder about some of the latest roster moves as possibly being showcases of some sort.  We have already discussed the Matusz start, which was preceded by optioning Grimm, a rather integral piece of the bullpen, to Iowa.  The Cubs also brought Coghlan off the DL and optioned LaStella, which was in itself an odd move, give that Coghlan was considered expendable enough to deal off to Oakland last winter, and that LaStella has performed rather consistently all year long.

The Cubs right now, and until they finally decide to carry twelve pitchers like everyone else, have too many players who should be on the major league roster and too few slots.  They are going to have to find a spot for Soler pretty soon.  Maybe they will send off Matusz to make room, but they still need to recall LaStella and Grimm and activate Cahill in the near future at least for a spot start, so somebody has to go.

More Thoughts on the Deal

Just from listening to a bit of sports talk, my guess is tha Cubs are going to have to do some PR, at a minimum, to make the Chapman trade palatable for a goodly segment of their base, including me.

Also, one wonders if they have got this right from an analytical perspective.  They did not swoon before the break because their bullpen fell apart. Their bullpen fell apart because its weaknesses were exposed due to the string of bad and short starts by Arrieta, Lester, Lackey, and Hammel.  The back end of the pen is better than average.  The middle is weak, and, since the Cubs will never use a strong piece to keep a game close, they have lost a lot of games because they have not been able to stay close through the middle innings.

The other reason for the skid was the offense, which was impacted by a series of injuries, notably Fowler and Soler.  Time will fix these, and, on the offensive front, picking up a left-ganded batting outfielder like Reddick would help if the cost is manageable.

As for the starters, with Warren out of the mix now, look for the Cubs to stretch out Cahill just in case.  Hard to see getting another starter of equal ability to those now in the rotation unless injury forces their hand.

Chapman Trade

Looks as if the Cubs are going to acquire Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees in exchange for a package of four players, three of whom are likely prospects, viz., Gleybar Torres, Billy McKinney, and Rashad Crawford, with Adam Warren being the only veteran.  The package does not include Jorge Soler or Jameir Candelario, which is certainly good news.

I have mixed feelings about the trade.  It most assuredly puts the Cubs in a superior position, especially for the playoffs.  On the other hand, it would appear the Cubs are overpaying for a guy who is likely only a rental and has expressed a strong preference toward remaining in New York and resigning as a free agent next season.

That is, unless the Cubs are working on some sort of extension deal.  In which case, there are other misgivings to be considered as well.  This guy is coming off a thirty day suspension for domestic abuse and carries a bunch of baggage.

As far as what they Cubs are giving up, Torres is obviously the key.  He is a consensus top prospect on everyone's list.  The Cubs can, however, afford to lose him in that he is at least a year and maybe more away from the majors and is a shortstop.  The Cubs have so many shortstops now they don't know what to do with them.

With respect to Warren, I originally thought he might be a future fifth starter, but he has been really disappointing.  He has not shown in his stint with the Cubs that he is suited to a relief or swing role.

McKinney is a hard one to evaluate.  He was a first round pick by Oakland.  He excelled at A+ level in the Cubs organization last year as well as AA late in the year, but he has regressed this year at the same AA level, which, I think, in the Cubs view, makes him expendable.  Not, in other words, a top tier outfield prospect when compared to others in the system.

Crawford looks like a middling prospect playing in A ball.  Hard to evaluate him as well, but he looks like a throw-in at best.

Fowler and tha Cubs

Whatever it is that makes the combination tick, there is no denying Fowler's impact at the top of the lineup and how much he was missed over the past month or so.  Last night seemed special: home run, double, 3 RBI plus a major morale boost.

On the the trade front, the Cubs appear to be interested in Josh Reddick of the A's.  Oakland seems lately to be evolving into the development arm of the Cubs organization, much as KC complemented the Yankees way back when.  One must observe that thus far, Mr. Moneyball has not got the best of the bargain.

In this case, Reddick is a decent fit for the Cubs, though he is strictly a rental and strictly a platoon player.  As such, however, he is a substantial upgrade to the injured Chris Coghlan as a bench player and platoon with Soler when he returns.  I cannot see Reddick being worth a top prospect, though, more a midling AAA or advanced AA player with some upside.

The Trade

I haven't seen a lot of reaction to the Cubs acquisition of Mike Montgomery from the Mariners for Dan Vogelbach.  To my way of thinking, its satisfies a current need for the team in terms of getting a left-handed reliever to complement Travis Wood.  Granted it is not the drop dead deal a Chapman or Miller trade would have been, but I think I predicted in an earlier post the Cubs would more than likely go after a less spectacular arm.  Maddon sort of telegraphed this with his remarks the other day when he talked about getting a guy who would fit in and fill a role.

By all accounts, Montgomery is pretty good.  He should be able to slot in as a lefty specialist and seventh inning guy.  Richard has not filled that role this season and Wood is starting to show a little fraying from overuse.  In terms of giving someone up, Vogelbach has always looked like the most trade-worthy player in the farm system.  It is clear from today that any deal with the Yanks framed around Vogelbach was not going to pan out.  The Yanks are more likely to trade Chapman and get someone to overpay for a rental player or to get a blockbuster deal from a team more desperate than Chicago.  Vogelbach is going to be a solid major league player for years to come, but on the Cubs, or indeed most NL teams, he was not going to be a good fit.  For the Cubs, Rizzo clearly blocks him, and, to be honest, he does not really have a position, first base being the spot he is least likely to cause damage.

On the field, the Cubs took the rubber game of the series from the Mets.  Hendricks once again dominated a good team and the Cubs pounded Bertolo Colon from the start.  The Mets strength is still their pitching and injuries are beginning to impact their prospects for repeating as league champions.  They are definitely not the offensive team they were at the end of last season despite their performance in sweeping the Cubs in New York.  I have my doubts they will make the playoffs this year unless they get lucky.  If they do, it will be as a wild card.

How Did that One Get Away

Watching the game tonight was certainly frustrating.  On the one hand, Arrieta managed to stay aggressive and pretty much handcuff the Mets all evening.  On the other hand, the Cubs returned to a patient approach at the plate, which resulted in chasing the Mets starter early.  However, once they got men on base, they reverted to the anxious mode they have displayed of late.  They blew innumerable scoring chances all night long, most notably in the bottom of the ninth when they loaded the bases with no outs and managed switch to swing mode, failing again to put the ball in play in a meaningful way.

The Cubs played badly for sure Tuesday night, but the Mets, on the whole, did not exactly shine either.  People are after Rondon's head for blowing the game in the top of the ninth, clamoring for the Cubs to go out and get Chapman, but the game need not have got to that point with even a few decent at-bats with men on base.  Rondon is certainly in a bit of a mid-season slump, but fans should bear in mind that he was pitching on consecutive nights, which is something he has not done very often this year.  Also, despite giving up two solid hits, he managed a key strikeout and did induce a double-play ball that somehow did not materialize.  Finally, the hit that won the game for the Mets was a lucky blooper.

I thought the Cubs were back in business after taking three of four games following the All-Star Break, so I hope this tough loss does not presage another slump.  The schedule very much favors the Cubs for the next few weeks.  They need to put this thing away.

One good sign is that the starting pitching is back.  The only weak outing in the stretch was Lackey's on Sunday and that performance was due in part to a lack of ability to control his emotions.  To be honest, I don't really like Lackey as a playoff pitcher for this reason.  The Cubs managed to get under his skin last year in the NLDS.

Hendricks pitches Wednesday afternoon, so hopefully the team can bounce back.  Under the radar, Hendricks has emerged as the team's most reliable starting pitcher through mid-season.

Back to Business

The Cubs must have recuperated over the All-Star Break.  In any case, they looked like their old selves in dominating a good Texas team Friday afternoon.  Hendricks pitched six solid shutout innings and might have gone on had he not been pulled for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the sixth, a decision that resulted in padding the Cubs lead and virtually assuring a win.

The team looked great in the field and I was happy to see them score some runs without depending on the long ball.  Their plate discipline was excellent.  They took a 1-0 lead into the sixth inning and eventually wore down the Rangers starter, pushing across five more runs.  After that the bullpen took over and performed well.  Edwards has been rather impressive of late.  The only weakness might have been Wood, who got in trouble in the eighth and needed to be bailed out by Strop.  Grimm pitched a solid ninth inning, rather surprisingly, as he has been awful lately, really most of the year.

On the roster front, the Cubs activated Ross and Richard, sent Kawasaki to Iowa, and put Cahill on the DL with knee problems.  They continue to carry a bizarre and excessive assortment of relievers and too few bench options, but this, I suppose, is a function of having two regular outfielders on the DL.

This wouldn't be July without a whole series of speculation about trade deadline deals.  The Cubs could use a solid left-handed reliever and they no doubt covet Andrew Miller of the Yankees, but I have some doubts they will be able to pry him lose.  First off, the Yanks still think they have a wild card shot and second, they are not likely to deal Miller unless they can extend Chapman.  The price for Miller is one I venture the Cubs will not be willing to pay and the price for Chapman, a rental player, is likely one they should not consider.  If I were to wager on the subject, I would think the Cubs will make a more modest move, maybe for a guy like Abad of the Twins or Doolittle of Oakland if he is healthy.

Two More Losses

Recent games are confirming a worrisome trend.  On Thursday night, the Cubs lost a winnable game against a terrible Braves team.  Hard to figure.  The Cubs had lots of baserunners and lots of chances, but mostly did not deliver.  Overly anxious?  Seems like whenever someone bats with men on base, they try to hit a home run and instead hit into a double play.

Also yet another case of over-thinking on Maddon's part.  OK, Hammel gets hurt, so Wood is summoned to get two outs.  Why not let him?  Instead Hendricks comes in to pitch the next two innings, which is fine except that, for some odd reason, Edwards comes in for the final out of the eighth inning.  The Cubs go ahead 3-2, but Rondon blows the save, so Spencer Patton is the only guy left for extra innings and at they lose in 11.  There is one wasted arm in that mix that cost a win.

A similar story Friday night in Pittsburgh.  Arrieta is not sharp early, but he settles in until the 7th when he gets in trouble.  Again, you have to ask yourself whether, given you only have reliable relievers for the 8th and 9th, it is better to just ask the starter to get out of a jam than to call for a reliever who is unlikely to deliver at best.  So Arrieta is replaced and the Cubs lose again, squandering numerous chances along the way.

I do not mean to put all or even much of the woes on Maddon, but there is a tendency on the part of most modern managers to handle a bullpen in a very rigid way, so you wind up saving your best guys for the 8th and 9th when the team is ahead, which are often less stressful situations and, as a consequence, not using them earlier when the outcome of the game is frequently determined.

What's Wrong with the Cubs?

I was tempted to write this earlier in the week and to suggest nothing serious that three games with the Reds could not cure, but, obviously, that did not happen and the Cubs lost two of the three games.  I still see no reason to panic, but neither do I see a team without serious issues.  In a nutshell, the Cubs have played mediocre baseball in June and terrible baseball the past two weeks.  Why is the question on everyone's mind.

First off, there are the injuries.  Losing Schwarber just a few games into the season hurt.  Losing Fowler, Soler, and LaStella in June hurt even more.  I suppose even the injury to Coghlan hasn't helped much either.  The Cubs are carrying only three real outfielders right now, two of whom are rookies and obvious reserves.  This, of course, means pretty nearly every starting lineup has a couple of players playing out of position.  Not that Bryant and Zobrist and Contreras are not versatile, but it affects the team just the same.

The injuries also seem to have affected the style of play, especially the loss of Fowler and Soler, who were patient hitters.  The Cubs annihilated opposing pitchers early on by grinding out at-bats.  For the past few weeks, that entire approach has changed.  The Cubs are scoring the majority of their runs on home runs, often solo home runs, and they are getting behind on the count much more often and striking out more as a result.  They have got to return to their earlier habits.  Getting back lost personnel will help, but the manager and coaches have got to recondition these guys to the point they were before the slump.

Besides the injuries and the lack of discipline, which, incidentally, has shown up on defense as well, pitching, once the team's strength, has faltered.  Early on, the Cubs starters were dominant.  Lately, not so much.  Maybe these guys are a little tired, which is only to be expected with the advent of hot weather and playing so many games in succession without an off-day.  However, some of Maddon's managerial style has played a role here as well.  Maddon is managing his staff as if he had a strong bullpen.  Unfortunately, he does not.

A good example of this is the Lackey game with the Mets last week.  Maddon pulled Lackey in the seventh with a man on and one out.  However, he replaced him with the since departed Peralta and the game was lost.  Ordinarily, removing a tiring starter at that point in a tight game makes sense, but only when you have a solid alternative to fall back upon.  In this case, again, not so much.

It's clear the Cubs are going to need to retool the bullpen much as they did last year after the All-Star break, but, until they do, they are going to have to make adjustments and show more patience with their starters instead of pretending they have reliable arms available when they do not.  It is really important to win the Thursday game against the Braves and to stop the hot Pirates in the weekend series at Pittsburgh.  If they are swept there, it means they will have only a five or six game lead and they will be in real trouble.

A Weird Series, a Tough Loss, and a Real Stinker

The Cubs swept the Reds in Cincinnati with rather more difficulty than one would have supposed necessary, especially in the fifteen inning game Tuesday night.  I sometimes think that Maddon does a lot of these strange managerial moves just because he can, which was certainly the case in that game.  Still, a sweep is a sweep, no matter how it is achieved.

On Thursday night, the quick hook for Lackey backfired in a big way, allowing the Mets to come back from a three run deficit and win the game.  Sure, the key play there was the Baez throwing error, but Lackey left the game with a man on second and it was his replacement, Joel Peralta, who could not get an out.  For some reason, Maddon always seems to get a little antsy with his starters in mid-season.  He did the same thing last year, maybe with more justification.  Peralta seems to be the latest in the Cubs reclamation projects and possibly the most misguided.  This guy is 42 years old and has not been able to get outs for quite a while.

Perhaps to make up for the questionable decision of Thursday's game, the Cubs chose to trot Jason Hammel back out after the hour or so rain delay Friday night.  Maybe it is just anecdotal, but it seems to me that Cubs starters rarely if ever pitch well after this lengthy a delay.  Hammel was just awful, and, oddly enough, Maddon left him in the game to be unmercifully routed for ten runs before he took him out.

Anyway, the Cubs can still salvage a split with Arrieta and Lester due to make the weekend starts.