Shutout in LA

After a successful 7-2 homestand, I rather thought the Cubs were going to go on a roll.  Not to be.  The team looks pretty down and has failed to score a single run thus far in LA.  The loss dropped the Cubs back to half a game behind the Brewers into a virtual tie with the Cardinals for second place.

After the game, Maddon reiterated his opinion the team was playing good ball, but they were just not hitting.  I cannot really understand how you can think you are playing well when you haven't scored a run for eighteen innings, nor, as a matter of fact, even threatened to score a run.  We remarked last week that although the team scored a lot of runs at Wrigley Field, most of them were via the home run.  Right now, the Cubs are not working at-bats, not building innings, and striking out a lot.  Maddon has finally dropped Schwarber from the leadoff spot and has evidently decided to use him as a platoon player for a while.  That's fine, but how can you continue to hit this guy second when he is batting like .170 and striking out every other time at the plate.  Maddon has also started playing Montero more often and has dropped Russell down in the lineup.  He is playing Happ every day and the rookie continues to impress.  Certainly these are defensible moves, but so far they haven't yielded much in the way of results.

I still think the real Achilles heel of this year's team is starting pitching.  The Cubs have two pitchers in the rotation who have proved thus far to be unreliable and rather unproductive. three if you count the injured Anderson.  These two are Lackey and Arrieta.  One expected Lackey to show signs of age and rust.  Arrieta, however, was thought to be a rock.  I'm beginning to wonder whether Arrieta is ever going to return to form.  His problem now is fairly fundamental.  Arrieta is a power pitcher who relies on hard stuff to set up all his sequences.  He has lost 2 or 3 mph on his fastball.  When you throw 95 or 96 mph up in the zone, batters swing and miss.  When you throw 92 or 93, they hit home runs.  Arrieta is on a pace to give up twice as many home runs as has become his norm.  The team can probably muddle through with this level of performance.  They are not going to give up on him for sure.  But I daresay that big payday is receding into the distance, at least from the Cubs point of view.

Home Stand So Far

So far, so good on the home stand, 5-2.  The Cubs have swept the Reds, split with the Brewers in a rain-shortened series, and split the first two with the Giants.  The Cubs have been as good as their starting pitching by and large.  Butler was awful in his start last Friday.  Lackey was not exactly scintillating in a windy night game loss to San Francisco Monday night.

Hendricks and Lester have been solid through the latest round.  Arrieta was similarly solid in his last start, but, in my mind, he has a ways to go to prove himself the top gun he once was.  Butler gets another shot on Thursday.  Just reading the tea leaves here, one wonders if that is his final audition.  Bringing up Rosscup means the Cubs have three lefties in the pen.  That might set the stage for Montgomery to move into the rotation should Butler fail.

The offense has picked up the pace lately.  However, one item of concern is they are scoring a lot of their runs via the home run.  Ten of the last eleven runs they have scored are the result of home runs, including all of the runs scored in the Giants series thus far.  Nothing wrong with a power surge for a team with a lot of power hitters, but still not really building innings the way they did last season.

Are Maddon and Arrieta Kidding Themselves?

After Sunday's game, a 5-0 loss to the Cards, Joe Maddon came out and suggested this was Arrieta's best start of the year.  He and Arrieta agreed the pitcher threw strikes and had good stuff and so on.  The fact is, however, that Arrieta made two mistakes that wound up in the seats and accounted for four runs.  The fact also remains that Arrieta's fastball was clocking in at 92 pr 93 mph.  This is 2 mph slower than his salad days of 2015 an 2016.  Actually Arrieta was lights out brilliant through 2015 and half way into 2016.  Since then, he has been inconsistent and not quite right.  I hope these guys are right and that he can turn it around.  Otherwise, the dominant starting pitching of that championship season just isn't there across the board and the team is in trouble insofar as repeating their superior run of 2016.

After Friday's win, I thought they might be poised to take off, at least to win the series.  Obviously, that did not happen.  The Cubs return home Tuesday and play ten home games against mediocre teams, the Reds, the Brewers, and the struggling Giants.  If we are to see even a repeat of the division championship this season, they need to get healthy, start hitting, and win seven or eight of these contests.

Just as an aside, Ian Happ's debut has been pretty impressive.  They will have a hard time sending him down.  Maybe also a hard time finding regular playing time once Heyward comes off the DL  Still, he is possibly a better fit than Candelario, who has not hit very well and who is eternally blocked at his two positions of third and first base by Bryant and Rizzo.

Butler Steps Up

As did Hendricks and Lackey in the final two games in Denver.  Arrieta, on the other hand, has stepped back, throwing another really mediocre outing in the first game of the series.  Mediocre has generally described the Cubs performance of late.  Perhaps Friday's game is a harbinger of good things to come.

Friday's game belonged to two players, Butler and Contreras.  Butler looked very good.  I hadn't realized he threw that hard.  Early in the game, he was consistently up around 95 or 96 mph.  Very sharp.  One game does not make him a fixture in the rotation, but he has been very strong through spring training and in his starts at Iowa, so there is reason to hope.  Just subtracting Anderson from the mix is progress.

The Cubs were again without some of their best players in Friday's lineup, this time not be design.  Russell was still suffering from a sore shoulder that impeded his throwing, Heyward remained on the DL, Bryant was a late scratch with a stomach ache, and Jay played only one or two innings before leaving with back problems.  With all this going on, LaStella stepped up with a double and a home run after replacing Jay.

Contreras, though, was the big star, knocking out two home runs and picking Fowler off first base to end a seventh inning Cardinals rally.  Granted he almost threw away the game after a dropped third strike in the ninth, but he was still the man responsible, in the main, for the win.

Lets hope this is the beginning of a winning streak.

Rain Delay

The Cubs were fortunate to get rained out last night even though it entails playing a double-header today.  Apparently, they got into Denver at 5 AM after an excruciating 18 inning loss to the Yankees, so things were unlikely to go well for them that night.

About the Cubs woes, everyone talks about pitching and bullpen issues.  We discussed some of this is earlier blog posts.  Actually, after some early season issues, the bullpen has done pretty well despite the necessity of overuse.  The starters continue to be a problem.  Really going back to the tail end of last season, the only absolutely reliable starters have been Lester and Hendricks.  Arrieta has performed well every other start on the whole.  It may be presumed he will eventually achieve the consistency he has shown in the past.  As for Lackey, I'm not convinced.  Lets face it, the guy is getting old and there may not be much left in the tank.  As for  Anderson, well, that has been a disaster.  Maybe his replacement, likely Montgomery or Butler, can correct this issue.  Otherwise the team is going to have to make a trade at the deadline, potentially giving up a talented farmhand.

One of the real problems most of the press hasn't dwelt upon is the hitting.  They are still scoring runs at a pretty high average, but the real concern I have is they are just not grinding out at-bats and building innings as they did last season.  Maybe it is the weather, but too many of the stars have been hot and cold, pretty much everyone except Bryant and Heyward among the regulars.  Oddly enough, many of the substitutes have contributed more consistently, Jay, Almora, Montero.

Perhaps warmer weather will provide an upswing, but I think a real change of approach is needed, a return to the basics that made them such a great team in the past.  Maddon might want to rethink that batting order as well.  I've always thought Schwarber was not the best choice for leadoff hitter. He did OK early in the season, but people forget that even though his debut seasons have been spectacular, he still has only about three or four months of major league experience.  The Cubs clearly miss Fowler in that spot.  Maybe they should try Heyward, who has batted first before.

Some of these issues were prominently displayed in the 18 inning loss.  The Cubs were swinging for the fences all night long.  The one inning where they payed attention, the ninth, they tied the game with three runs against Chapman.  After that, they had many chances in extra innings, but they came up short, often because they had to use a pitcher to pinch hit because they had no position players.  They should think about using the additional double header callup for a hitter today.

Looking at today's lineup, it looks like Schwarber is back batting first.  Some subs are out there at least for Game 1, Montero, LaStella, Almora.  I am not the first to note this, but Baez should never bat in front of the pitcher.  It just changes his whole psychology. Better ninth or sixth.  

Pitching Woes

After taking three out of four from the rebuilding Phillies in less than dominant fashion, the Cubs have dropped the last two to the resurgent Yankees.  Friday's loss was a bummer.  Hendricks, who is increasingly becoming the only really reliable starter in the rotation who doesn't give up a crooked number in the first inning, pitched well.  Tough luck for Rondon, who had been very good to that point, giving up the home run to Gardner after forty pitches.

The Cubs made some roster moves after blowing out the bullpen.  They designated Szczur for assignment in order to add another reliever, then demoted Grimm to bring up a fourteenth pitcher.  To me there is something wrong with roster management and bullpen usage when you need to carry more than twelve pitchers, but fourteen is a step too far.

In any case, there are really two causes for this situation.  One is that Maddon really prefers using his relievers for a single inning.  This is fine if your starters are getting out of the sixth inning snf preferably the seventh, but not so good if they are not.

The Cubs starters, even the proven veterans, are not.  More often than not, they are getting beaten up in the first inning.  Are these guys warming up?  Are they so predictable in their pitch selection the other team is ready until they adjust?  Is warming up in the indoor bullpen affecting things?  Not questions a fan can answer, but something is wrong here.

One thing that is definitely wrong is Brett Anderson, who is always full of excuses, but who is just very likely not the pitcher he or baseball guys think he is.  As readers of this blog are aware, I never thought much about bringing Anderson on over the winter and handing him the fifth starter role, a role which I and most other observers though would go to Montgomery on merit and potential.

Acquiring Anderson effectively relegated Montgomery to relief and, coupled with Wood electing free agency, created another hole with respect to having a second lefty for short relief.  With Anderson proving a complete flop and now headed to the DL, the problem is compounded, but possibly creates an opportunity to achieve an appropriate resolution.

I was sorry to see Szczur wind up on the short end here.  He was surely not an integral part of the team, but he was a good bench player who gave it his all.  I hope he lands somewhere where he can get more playing time.

World Series Preview?

The Boston series was widely hyped as potentially a World Series preview.  It did not disappoint in terms of close, tense, hard-fought games.  The Cubs came out on the short end mainly because of two innings, the first inning of Arrieta's start and the eighth inning of Sunday night's game when the team uncharacteristically disintegrated after a botched play by Uehara covering first.

Actually, neither the Red Sox nor the Cubs are playing great baseball these days, though the potential is certainly there for a Series rematch.

On the subject of the Cubs, Maddon insists he has no worries and he is very satisfied, every season is different, the starting pitching will settle down, the hitters will produce.  I suppose he is right.  Almost certainly he is right about the hitting.

Really the only player in the long run who may not right the ship is Baez.  Baez continues to just play in swing mode all the time.  It is possible the Cubs will just get used to that version of things.  However, should Baez continue along these lines, he is effectively limiting himself to his current role.  He also becomes increasingly expendable given the progress of other prospects in the farm system.  Ian Happ, to make the obvious connection.  Happ is beginning to look like Zobrist raised to a higher power.

I'm a little more hesitant to second Maddon's opinion about the starting pitching returning to the dominance they exerted last year.  Lester and Hendricks and probably Arrieta for sure.  Maybe Lackey, who will at least give you six innings in the first half of the year that keep you close.

Anderson, not so much confidence.  His performance last night was terrible, especially when you contrast it with Montgomery's relief innings.  It is clear that, objectively, Montgomery is the reliable starter who completes the rotation.  Montgomery is only relegated to the bullpen because of his versatility and because the Cubs do not have a reliable left-handed option in the pen right now.