A Strange Week

Things began innocently enough on Monday night when the Cubs held on to beat Washington 5-4.  After that, things got a little crazy.  We had already remarked on Montero's unusual outburst after the Tuesday night debacle which saw Arriea continue to pitch badly and the combination of Arrieta and Montero allow seven stolen bases.

Was Montero right to blow up like that publicly?  Clearly not, though he is an emotional guy and has exhibited a certain frankness with the press on other occasions.  He was, incidentally, right about the root cause of the failure to throw out runners.  On the other hand, he hasn't had much success controlling the running game this season no matter who is pitching.  His defensive skills are clearly in decline and he is a bad match for the Cubs pitchers in general, since they do not, as a rule, pay a lot of attention to baserunners.

The whole business about trying to protect the young players from the corrupting influence of such public frankness doesn't hold much water in my mind.  I mean, although athletes are not the brightest bulbs, you can just tell these kids not to try the same trick.  Rather I think it illustrates some dissension on the team already and probably bad blood between Maddon and Montero in the first place.  I may be wrong.  In any case, the Cubs pulled the trigger quickly.  I had thought they would likely let Montero go after the season and might even trade him at the deadline.  Now, however, they will get virtually nothing in return.

Next, of course, came the gratuitous White House visit.  I suppose this goes with the territory when the majority of the team's owners are Neanderthal right-wingers.  Actually, the majority of all sports team ownership falls into this category, so there is nothing new there.  Still, the whole business was an unnecessary distraction which might have caused more of a stir had it not been for the Montero flap.  I was really disappointed to see Maddon giving an inspirational speech to young Republicans that same day.  Say it ain't so, Joe.  Albert Almora became my new favorite Cub for a while when it appeared he was giving  the finger to Trump in a group photo.  Later he denied the intention, but I still like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Finally, the Cubs did pull out a victory in Thursday's game, coming from behind in the ninth after appearing to blow the game earlier.  Lester pitched well.  I kind of question taking him out for a pinch hitter in the top of the inning.  He was at 90 pitches, but he was coasting along.  As it turns out, Edwards was wild and ineffective, so they almost blew the game, falling behind 4-2.  Only some clutch hitting for a change and the futility of the Nationals bullpen bailed them out.

If you look at the series as a playoff preview, you have to think the Cubs came out of it looking like more than a match for Washington.  After all the drama and the poor starting pitching and fielding a team of rookies and second year players, they wound up with a split.

For the Cubs, even when they get their team back intact, it's all about pitching, which is why they are a .500 team now.  They are going to need to add something at the deadline.  For the Nats, it's all about their bullpen, which is among the worst in baseball right now.

A Sloppy Game

After playing flawless baseball for 8 1/2 innings Monday night, the Cubs turned in a stinker Tuesday. They collected only two hits, committed two errors they were charged with, etc.  They allowed seven stolen bases.  Also, Arrieta stunk once again, walking six, not making it out of the fifth inning.

Just two observations:

Something is wrong with Arrieta, either physically or in his head.  Either way, unless other arms are there to pick up the slack, he is not going to help the team much and he is likely gone in free agency.  He expects a mega-contract.  Unlikely he will get it from the Cubs.

Montero cannot throw out anyone these days, but he is right on one score.  His pitchers, namely Arrieta, don't hold runners on and are slow to the plate.  I get a sense of frustration and perhaps a little discontent on the team right now judging from Montero's post-game interview.  He really let it all out there.  I have a feeling the rest of the team is pretty pissed as well.

In any case, the Cubs are likely to be on-again, off-again until they get some of there regulars back, Zobrist, Heyward, Russell, Hendricks.  Even then, though, they have been mediocre.  These Maddon lineups right now are totally weird and don't make a lot of sense.

The Schwarber Move

I was a little surprised to see the Cubs send Schwarber down to Iowa, but in a way, this might be the best thing for his future.  Schwarber was not having good at-bats at all and you could tell he was frustrated and also just trying to hit the ball as far as he could not matter the situation.  He was only happy when he hit a home run, thinking this would straighten him out when in reality it only reinforced his worst tendencies.  Epstein supposedly told him he was sending him down to find himself again as a hitter, not a slugger.  Good advice, I think.  Hopefully, he will straighten himself out and get back in a couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the team sent Heyward to the DL and brought up Zagunis as well as, for some unaccountable reason, another worthless relief pitcher, Florio again.  I cannot figure out why they need thirteen pitchers.  Fourteen, however, is a step too far.  Also not exactly a vote of confidence in Arrieta and the rest of the starting staff.

Actually, Arrieta pitched his first decent game in quite a while, coasting to an 11-1 victory behind a barrage of hits and home runs.  A good sign for sure.

Padres Series

Actually the Cubs have won two consecutive series for the first time in a while.  Progress of a sort.  They should have won Wednesday afternoon, but, except for the Happ home run, they did nothing offensively.  The Padres were not much better, but they collected the winning run on a bases-loaded walk that turned out to be the difference.

The Cubs have been fielding a cobbled together lineup lately what with injuries to Zobrist, Heyward, and Schwarber.  Also a cobbled together rotation with Hendricks on the shelf.  So I suppose you might say when these guys are all back healthy and Bryant starts hitting again, things are going to get better.  However, all these guys were healthy most of the year and they are still a team that is only one game over .500.

Although hitting has been an issue all season long, the Cubs will probably improve on that account in the second half.  Pitching is where they need to add at the trade deadline and that is the area I think they will address.  They will be in the market for another starting pitcher for certain and possibly a left-handed reliever if Montgomery stays in the rotation, which I think he should.  I was at the game Tuesday night and I have to say his performance was impressive.  Ground ball after ground ball.  Butler has been adequate as a starter, but just that.

The problem the team is going to have at the deadline is finding the right guy.  Everybody wants to pick up that controllable arm.  However, not only is the price likely to be high to get that piece, but the arms in that category that are likely to be available are by no means sure things.  Cole and Archer and Gray come to mind, but they all look like possible reclamation projects in some sense.  These players would have made sense when the Cubs were building and they had nothing to lose, but going for the player who puts them back in the Series is another matter.

Plus, by all accounts, the front office is not at all willing to trade any of the young players currently on the major league roster.  Rightly so, I think.  They are more likely to want to create a package that features Candelario and a couple of AAA and AA prospects.  They certainly have these guys to spare, but that sort of combination is probably only going to get you a rental from a team that has fallen from contention.

The trouble there is that in the AL, you can only make a case for three teams being hopelessly out of it, Detroit, Oakland, and the White Sox.  In the NL, the opposite is the case and you can only make a case for six teams in serious contention,  The Nationals are running away with the East, three teams are playing well in the West, namely, LA, Colorado, and Arizona.  The Central Division is mired in mediocrity, but you have to make some really dire assumptions to conclude the Cubs will not ultimately pull away.

Ideally, the Cubs could match up with the Rangers and acquire Yu Darvish for the balance of the season,  However, the Rangers, mediocre as they have been and are likely to remain, despite being lapped by the Astros, are only two games out of the Wild Card race now.  Plus they have the money to hold onto Darvish in the free agent if they want to do so.  Should be interesting.

Nothing Different

After playing a really encouraging game Friday night, where they built big innings, came though with men on base, etc., the Cubs reverted Saturday night to their old ways.  Three runs scored, all on home runs.

In addition, Arrieta pitched badly again.  This time he blamed the humidity.  Last time it was a cut on his finger.  Maybe.  However, Arrieta has pitched the same game at least every other time he has started since last August.  Should he survive the first inning relatively unscathed, he will sail along until the fifth or sixth when he will lose command and blow the game.  This time it was the fifth.  Time to be honest here.  Something is wrong and it doesn't seem to be improving.

Hot and Cold Again

The Cubs took off on the road trip having played 62 games.  So they had 100 to go and realistically, at least in normal years, a team needs to win at least 90 games to make the playoffs.  That means playing roughly .600 baseball through the balance of the season.  Losing two of three to the Mets doesn't do much to convince anyone they can do so.  Perhaps, in a really weak division, they can squeak in regardless, but they certainly do not look like a true contender at this stage of the season.

After being shut down by deGrom in the first game of the series, the Cubs broke out with a 14-3 win in the second.  Wednesday night they just lost a game that was close until the eighth inning, but one of which they had control throughout.  Montgomery pitched well through five innings.  If the Cubs had not performed so poorly in the field behind him, he might well have left with a 4-1 lead.  This time it was the bullpen that fell apart late.

However, there is just no consistency here and that is the most troubling part of it.  It seems the team can only score via the home run.  They hit  three in the third game, including a monstrous shot by Schwarber.  They all enjoyed it very much, yucking it up in the dugout and talking glowingly about those dingers and how they felt.  Be that as it may, they lost.  And they keep losing games they should have won.  The offense shut down after the fourth inning.  Maybe this team is a little too relaxed, a little too confident it will find its mojo.  Maybe it is time for a little more desperation.

Zobrist!

Maybe someone can explain why Ben Zobrist, who has like three hits in the last month and is batting forty points south of the Mendoza line during that stretch, is batting cleanup.  Other than that he is a Maddon favorite and batting a guy like that fourth is a favorite Maddon quirk.

So first inning, men on second and third, one out.  Zobrist strikes out.  Rally over.

Actually, like many others, I have never been a fan of Zobrist batting fourth even when he was playing well.  Last year, batting behind Fowler, Bryant, and Rizzo, players who combined to a nearly .400 OBP, Zobrist drove in 76 runs.  Compare that to Russell, who usually hit fifth and had nearly 100 RBI.

Hot and Cold

After sweeping the Cardinals, the Cubs ran their streak to five, winning the first two games against Miami.  Since then they have played badly, losing the next three.  Friday's game was kind of pathetic.  The Cubs walked nine times, added two hit batsmen, saw 180 pitches and wound up scoring only three runs.  Even Maddon had to acknowledge that feat was nearly impossible.

What's wrong, I think, is as much mental as physical.  The only guys really paying attention are Bryant and Rizzo, sometimes Happ.  The Cubs will roll up the pitch count with patient at-bats, but as soon as they have the pitcher on the ropes they shift into swing mode.  So it looks like they only score now via the home run, even though their patience creates opportunities to build innings.

A good example of this trend was the ninth inning Friday.  After Schwarber struck out trying to hit a three-run homer with nobody on base, the Rockies closer got into a wild streak.  Happ, Bryant, and Rizzo drew consecutive bases-on-balls.  So with one out and the bases loaded, after the Rockies pitcher has thrown nothing even remotely near the strike zone, what does the cleanup hitter Ben Zobrist do?  Of course, he swings at the first pitch and pops out to shallow left field.  What are these guys thinking, I wonder.

The Sweep

The Cubs played a great series against St. Louis this weekend at home, winning all three games, coming from behind in all three as well.  In addition, these are the sort of games that really good teams win, so hopefully they are back fro real this time.

They got great starts from Lackey and Lester in the first two and survived a somewhat shaky performance from Hendricks in the final game.  All in all, a major step forward.  Incidentally, I really like what I have seen of Ian Happ.  He went through at rough patch during the West Coast trip, but he seems to have adjusted.  The two home runs Sunday night were really big.  I also rather agree with Maddon that besides the grand slam Saturday from Schwarber, more important for his return to form were the three walks today.

The Cubs have a real chance to assert themselves on this homestand.  The Marlins, a pretty mediocre outfit, come in next, followed by the Rockies, a team that seems to be playing way over its head.  They go on the road after that against some pretty weak opponents until they finish off June against Washington.

Present Woes

It's never easy to repeat as champions, but that West Coast trip was abominable.  Especially on the heels of a 7-2 homestand.  I mean, ten walks and two hit-batsmen and you score only two runs?  Nine runs in six games, almost all of them on home runs?  Something's wrong here.

I suppose one must realize this is not the team that won the Series last year.  Theoretically, they should be pretty good.  Actually they aren't.  At the end of the season, the Cubs decided to pass on four free agents who were keys to their success in 2017, namely, Fowler, Wood, Chapman, and Hammel.  In addition, Ross retired.  I cannot second guess any of those choices.  They were the right decisions.  Actually, the Cubs correctly did not expect Travis Wood or Jason Hammel to duplicate their 2017 form and they have not.  They probably expected Fowler to have a couple of more good years, but they were unwilling to give him the lengthy contract he desired.  In reality, Fowler has been pretty mediocre for the Cards.  They were definitely not going to pay Chapman the money he expected.

The problem has been that these cogs in the Cubs machine have not been replaced.  Hammel, in particular, was a fifteen game winner as essentially the #5 starter.  The truth is the Cubs have no #5 starter right now.  Anderson was pretty bad before he got hurt.  Butler does not appear to the the answer.  Montgomery, who was the heir apparent before Anderson was acquired, may be the answer here.  Given the struggles and inconsistencies of the remainder of the rotation, they need to find a solution quickly.  The only real fix the off-season repaired was Davis in the closer role.

As far as the leadoff spot is concerned, it really is time to call the Schwarber experiment quits.  Time honestly to drop this kid down a lot further in the order than second as well.  Zobrist or Heyward are better choices now depending on the matchups.  I honestly expect the Cubs to move some minor leaguers and young talent at the deadline for pitching, either of the rental or controllable variety, especially as what passes for genuine pitching prospects on the farm is quite a ways away.

As far as high level talent goes, I hope they hold onto Happ.  He looks like a complete player and a star in the making.  Candelario, for one, is effectively blocked for years to come, so he is probably expendable.

This Cardinals series is going to tell a lot.