Free Agent News

Unfortunately not much, at least so far as the Cubs are concerned.  I expect this is mainly owing to the market for the top of the line starters and relievers being slow to develop.  That's mainly due, I think to the exaggerated demands being discussed for their services.

Darvish and Arrieta are generally supposed to be the pick of this group, with Cobb and Lynn heading the second tier.  I'd like to see the Cubs pursue Darvish and pass on Arrieta.  The truth is, nobody should be signing pitchers of this caliber to six year deals, especially for the kind of money they are seeking, which is in the neighborhood of $25MM annually.

At the beginning of the free agent season, Cobb was thought to be a great buy at around $50MM for four years.  Turns out he is looking for five years and something like $80MM.  Lynn seems to be the only one of these four who has not priced himself out of the market.  It looks as if he will be the last to go after the first three settle.

Relief pitchers, an even more risky commodity, are looking for similarly inflated deals, at least the top of the market guys like Davis and Holland.  Davis has signed with the Rockies for $52MM over three years, which is around $17MM annually.  That's kind of absurd on the face of it.  Davis was excellent last year for the Cubs, but if you look at his peripherals and his performance down the stretch, there are abundant red flags.  Kind of glad the team passed on him.  Holland is looking for similar money.  Given his injury history and the fact his performance slacked off quite a bit toward the end of the year, he represents a considerable risk.

I rather think the Cubs have done well thus far in this market.  There are still quite good relief pitchers out there, Reed and Watson among them.  To my mind, Watson is a good fit for the Cubs.  Should they obtain him, they might just settle on Montgomery as the fifth starter and go from there.

If you look at the big splash free agent signing in the Epstein era, they haven't exactly set the world on fire.  The Cubs paid Earnest Jackson good money to be a complete flop.  They signed Ben Zobrist to a four year deal, admittedly not a blockbuster, but so far they have got one good year, one terrible year, and two years of probably declining skills as this veteran player ages.

The Cubs gained instant respectability by signing Lester in 2015, but, in all honesty, he was a bit of a dud in his first season, coming on at the end, then had a super 2016 before a mediocre 2017.  The team is on the hook for three more years at least for over $20MM a year.

The other big ticket player was Heyward, who is on the books for big bucks till God knows when.  He might turn things around, but don't bet on it.  If he does, he'll probably opt out the next year.

I'm not especially faulting Epstein and Hoyer here.  The truth is there are more albatross contracts on the high end in MLB than bargains.

Darvish

Word is the Cubs are meeting with Yu Darvish.  I had expected them to move in his direction earlier, but the market for starters has taken a while to develop.  There are four free agent starters of quality remaining now: Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn, mentioned roughly in order of merit.  It seems the Cubs were after Cobb, but his asking price is pretty high and the Cubs were turned off.  The same appears true of Arrieta, at least in that the asking price is ridiculously high.  I like the idea of Darvish joining the Cubs, though the price might be costly.

So far the Cubs have focused on pitching this off-season.  Why not? Despite all the carping about not having a leadoff man and whatever, the team scored over 800 runs last year, an average of five runs a game.  800 runs is good enough for a championship most years unless you are Colorado.

The off-season has brought in Chatwood, whom I regard as a great choice, as well as Smyly from the starting pitcher group.  Smyly is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is likely to miss most if not all of 2018.

On the relievers front, the Cubs have reeled in Morrow, right now the likely closer, as well as Cishek, a likely setup man although he has closer experience.  Davis, of course, is still unsigned, but his return is unlikely, especially if the Cubs go all in on Darvish or Cobb.  Austin Reed has been linked to the Cubs as well.  Reed would probably fill the closer role.

Notably lacking among the bullpen options are left-handers, which probably explains management's insistence on relegating Montgomery to the swingman role.  Justin Wilson is now the only experienced lefty pure reliever on the squad, though they signed Dario Alvarez, something of an unproven quantity to say the least. On this score, Duensing is still on the market.  The Cubs could do a lot worse than landing him to fill out the bullpen.

Rumor Mill

The Cubs signed Drew Smyly to a two year deal.  He is not expected to recover from Tommy John surgery until August, so this is a pretty minor signing.  Smyly was once a hot prospect for Detroit and pitched pretty well for Tampa Bay.  He seems to have been injury prone for much of his career as his only season with 30 starts was 2016, his last full season as he missed all of 2017.

There was a bit of a controversy when Ken Rosenthal attributed some remarks to Mike Montgomery about his preference to being a starter and his general discontent.  I wouldn't put much stock in it as Hoyer denied the whole business.  It has been an open secret that Montgomery wants to work into a starting role as opposed to being a swingman.  Personally, I've always thought he could make that transition and never could figure out why the Cubs didn't use him in a starting role exclusively.

Maddon is quoted as saying he would not rule out using Kyle Schwarber as a leadoff man again.  This is completely idiotic on Maddon's part as that experiment had a lot to do with the Cubs poor performance in the first half of 2017 and pretty much ruined Schwarber's season.

The Cubs are, I think, unlikely to trade for another starter.  Most likely, they will target Cobb for that role and then try to land at least another reliever or two in order to retool the bullpen.  I seriously doubt that Archer is available by trade and even if he is on the block, the Cubs do not have the farm system right now to acquire him.  There are similar rumors to the effect the Cubs could trade for Brad Hand of San Diego.  Again, in this case I doubt you move major league talent for a relief pitcher.

The Cubs bullpen now consists of Morrow, Strop, Montgomery, Edwards, Wilson, and Grimm.  That leaves one slot open for sure and probably two given the wretched performance of Grimm last year.  They should be able to fill these openings through the free agent market even if they do not sign Davis, which is the likely scenario in any case.

No Ohtani

I have to say it is no surprise the Cubs lost out on the Ohtani sweepstakes.  They were pretty much a long shot to begin with.  Now that Ohtani is off the table, I rather think the market for a lot of the big pitching assets will start to settle.  As far as the Cubs are concerned, I honestly do not see them trading for either a starter or a reliever at this stage of things.  There are just too many front line and middle of the rotation guys available on the open market right now.  I kind of think they will make a play for Darvish, although this is far from certain.  Cobb is the more likely target.  As to relievers, it is not beyond imagination for them to try to land Davis, but, in a way, Davis is a costly piece who carries a lot of risk.  I'm not a fan of paying relief pitchers big bucks as in general, I believe that closers are overrated commodities and the shelf life of relief pitchers is pretty limited.  The Cubs have apparently made offers to Brandon Morrow and Austin Reed, either one of whom would be nice additions, Morrow presumably as the closer in waiting.  Should be an interesting week coming up.

Thumps Up for Chatwood Signing

Earlier this autumn, I noted that Tyler Chatwood might be the sleeper in the free agent starters market.  I think signing him was a smart move.  People have already noted the strong numbers he has achieved away from Coors Field, something like a three run ERA differential.  Chatwood is 27 which means he is on the cusp of his prime years.  He is, by all reports, the hardest thrower among the free agent starters, gets a lot of ground balls, and has crisp breaking stuff.  I really like this acquisition.  Dare I suggest he has a high upside comparable to Arrieta's when he was acquired from Baltimore.

Hot Stove

So Rondon was non-tendered and Justin Grimm was. Not sure wht happened to him after the Cubs brought in Chapman. He was good in the setup role after that until he was injured. Then Maddon seemed to lose confidence in him. Last year was pretty bad, but I can see him recovering form on another team. Grimm’s retention is a puzzler  This guy really stinks.

The latest conclusion is that Arrieta is gone. Not surprising. Someone will offer two years more than he is worth and overpay. The one sure big bucks free gent is Darvish. Kind of surprised the Cubs are not bigger players here.

Word is the Cubs have made offers to Morrow and Cobb, both sound moves. Also appear to be interested in Minor. All in on Ohtani as well, but that’s a long shot.

I tend to discount most of the outlandish trade rumors floating around. The truth is their only trade chips are Baez and Happ and that Happ should be untouchable . Baez will only be moved in a blockbuster for someone in the Archer or Cole quality sector. Trades like that won’t happen.

I kind of think Davis is gone too. I should write a piece on relievers, closers especially, and how overrated they are. The truth about Davis is he is by no means in the Jansen or Miller category.  It is also the case that he has lost four or five mph off his fastball, which is why he has to nibble so much and rely on his secondary pitches for outs.