Left Behind?

So far not much action from the Cubs this winter, much to the consternation of many fans who expected big moves toward Harper or Machado or both.  I've got to say that I am not of that number for reasons already explained in earlier posts.

I'm pretty certain the Cubs thinking goes along these lines, viz., we were good enough to win 95 games last year despite injuries to Darvish, Chatwood's complete meltdown, Morrow's and Bryant's injuries, Contreras's second half slump and Russell's suspension.  Just assuming Bryant is back, Contreras gets some regular time off and Darvish is able to join the rotation, the team is in pretty good shape.  Two out of three of these things happening wins five more games for sure.

Balanced against this is the fact the Cardinals and Reds have made big moves in the off-season.  Probably not enough for the Reds to make a run, but the Cards are going to be serious contenders.  Oddly enough, the Brewers have not made much of a splash.  Personally, I always thought the Brewers were not as good a team as they proved last season and that they will likely regress.

Epstein and Hoyer have said they need to shed salary in order to make a big play.  I take them at their word.  The question is who gets shed to break some logjams.  They have fourteen pitchers on the 40-man roster who are virtual locks to make the team including Morrow who will open the season on the DL.  It doesn't include any prospects.  It does include at least three pieces of deadwood, viz., Chatwood, Duensing, and Kintzler.  My guess is they will retain Chatwood largely because nobody wants him and they need to rebuild some of his value.  Also, he gives them some insurance against injury to any of the starters and he might come back.  So Duensing and Kintzler are sure to be marketed.  I would expect for low-level minor leaguers.  Still, that doesn't save you much.

Most of the rest of the roster is set in stone right now with the exception of Russell who is suspended and not counted on the 40-man tally.  The Cubs might decide to move players like Schwarber or Almora or Happ or Bote, but the real question is what they need and what they get in return that is better than their current holdings.  I expect the answer to that is negative.  Plus it doesn't save much money.

The one guy who would save substantial cash is Heyward.  Heyward is ultimately completely expendable despite his relative youth and defensive prowess.  The problem is his contract, which, aside from overpaying him, is full of loopholes and opt-outs so that any team taking him on is likely to be saddled with him for a long time if he flops or lose him almost immediately if he succeeds.  The Cubs would need to subsidize any deal or take a similarly bad contract or virtually nothing in return.

Personally, I think the Cubs need a dominant left-handed reliever more than a Harper or Machado who will burden them with a ten year commitment that will entirely skew their salary structure and limit their flexibility for a long time to come.  I was disappointed they were unable to reel in Miller, though, in the long run, he might be a big risk especially in a three-year deal.  I'd like to see them make a run at Britton.

Not Much Activity

I still hold to the opinion the Cubs are going to stand pat through this off-season without any blockbuster moves.

So far, the team has not made a major roster move.  They tendered pretty much everyone who was expected to be retained.  One surprise was trading LaStella, but, again, LaStella was basically a pinch-hitter who occasionally played second or third base.

The Cubs did tender Addison Russell.  It now appears they are more or less committed to his rehabilitation.  This is pretty much confirmed by the various manipulations in picking up Torreyes, dumping him, then picking up Descalso.  They are obviously looking for a utility infielder who can back up at shortstop until Russell comes off suspension.  I suppose Descalso is as good an option as any.  One guy I thought they might go after is Marwin Gonzalez, who is a kind of poor man's Ben Zobrist and has a history as a Cubs farmhand.  I expect there it would involve too much of a commitment or too much money.

The last piece to fall is likely to be the acquisition of a solid left-handed reliever.  I thought that might be Andrew Miller.  Maybe it still is him.

All through the off-season, there have been rumblings about payroll and having to dump salary in order to make a big move or even a series of smaller moves that increase payroll.  My own suspicion is the salary dump is Heyward and they just cannot get takers.  Think about it.  The Cubs have got virtually nothing in the way of consistent production from Heyward other than his defense and they are paying him big bucks.  I'd sure like to see him traded.  It opens up a lot of possibilities.