For some reason everyone seems obsessed with trading away All-Star players in their prime with multiple years of team control. Hot stove madness? Okay, maybe if you are out of contention at the trade deadline, but, for now, the Cubs have to be in win now mode and remain that way through 2021 when several of their stars become eligible for free agency.
Realistically, for a team that needs to figure out how to avoid falling apart in September, even considering parting with any of the core players is foolishness. Taking Kris Bryant as an example, he was one of the best players in MLB in his first two seasons, then suffered some nagging injuries in 2018 and 2019 that coincided with the team's late season failures. So how does trading him away solve that issue? Thankfully, the market for Bryant has to be among win now teams who are unlikely to trade off key elements of their roster for a player likely to command an enormous multi-year contract in two years. Fortunately for the Cubs, they are discovering this fact right now.
Similarly, the idea of trading Contreras borders on absurdity. Nobody trades the best offensive catcher in the league for prospects. Rebuilding teams make that move, not contenders.
If the Cubs weren't owned by a bunch of right wing billionaires who don't like to pay taxes, they would bite the bullet and get some of the free agent talent that is sitting around and is actually quite affordable. I'm thinking here of the Japanese center-fielder Akiyama as well as the likely ex-Dodger Ryu, who is a solid #2 starter when healthy.
The Cubs could easily re-sign Strop and pick up some free agent talent to fill out the bullpen without breaking the bank.
They have already freed up $20 MM by letting Hamels go, a move I kind of question. They also lose Zobrist's $12.5MM plus a smattering of money from dumping a couple of journeyman relievers.
If the Cubs really need to dump salary, they might try trading the disappointing Heyward ($20MM for who knows how long) and Lester if they want to be ruthless about it. Lester is nowhere near the pitcher he once was and at $27MM clearly an albatross.
Before panicking, they should consider that right now they are likely a 90 win team. Not many teams can survive injuries to Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, and Bryant in September, as well as the loss of a front line starter in Hamels through the second half and come out on top.
Friday, December 13, 2019
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
What do the Cubs Want at Trade Deadline?
A good question. Also their approach at this point seems both tentative and inscrutable. I mean to say, other than a fascination with having a third catcher who provides a veteran presence and reminds one of David Ross, what does Maldonado bring to the table, especially when you have to give up a not inconsiderable player in Montgomery. Montgomery was admittedly having an awful year, but he had been injured early in the season and was coming off a season in which he filled in quite capably for Yu Darvish. The Cubs have a history under Epstein and Hoyer of paying bid for a player they want, but, come on, Maldonado is not Chapman or Quintana.
Actually, most of the moves the Cubs have made this year have been pretty marginal. They started out with a need to stabilize the rotation, which they accomplished rather painlessly by picking up Hamels option. After that, they looked for infield help given having to survive Russell's suspension. Enter Descalso, a major flop who is likely completely washed up. Exit Zobrist. Exit Russell. Enter belatedly Robel Garcia who shows some promise but strikes out all the time unless he hits a home run. (Just as an aside, the Cubs optioned Ian Happ to AAA purgatory for striking out about a third of the time. Garcia has struck out 44% of the time and has been promoted to leadoff man. Go figure).
Now the Cubs seem to be shopping for a reserve infielder on the trade market even though they have a surfeit of them. Personally, I would forget about second base unless they can get Merrifield from KC for next to nothing which is not going to happen.
The Cubs also think they need a right-handed hitting platoon outfielder as a rental. Castellanos of Detroit fits the bill and I suppose he's OK, but the guy is a butcher in the field. If you think Schwarber is weak defensively, you have not seen anything yet.
Which brings up the only need the Cubs must fill, the bullpen. Early in the off-season, the Cubs announced a desire to strengthen their bullpen given the injury to their would-be closer Morrow. Also that they were broke. Enter a cavalcade of rehab cases and washed up veterans. Only Ryan has proved even marginally useful, the rest have been pretty awful or hurt. Maybe Wick has some talent. Strop and Edwards have regressed, Strop probably because of injury, Edwards because he has become something of a head case.
Enter Kimbrel, who is defensible acquisition, though he has been rushed into duty with mixed results. Enter also Holland who is another rehab project though he may be able to get guys out if you pick his spots. Enter also Phelps, who is actually pretty good and may be the best cheap pickup of the bunch.
I don't think the Cubs really know what they want at this stage or what they are prepared to give up, so I rather think a blockbuster deal is off the table. Maybe that is for the best. To illustrate the point, they are apparently shopping Maldonado. After all, despite losing at least ten games owing to their bullpen, they are just a game out of first in the division, one which pits three evenly matched rivals in what is likely to be a dogfight.
Which kind of brings me to tonight's game and their road woes in general and an admonition not to panic. With the exception of the Dodgers, all these contenders both in the Central and the East are pretty evenly matched. Even against the Dodgers, who are running away with their division, the Cubs have played pretty evenly in tough, close games.
One cannot say just how much home field matters in these contests, which is pretty much borne out by the results so far. Tuesday's loss to the Cards is a good example. It might have gone either way. Wainwright and Darvish both pitched well. The Cubs lost on a home run. Schwarber failed to come through with the bases loaded and two outs. The Cubs ran into a stupid, strike 'em out, throw him out double play in the sixth, which preceded a Rizzo double and walks to Baez and Caratini that set up the Schwarber at-bat. Might just as easily have gone the other way.
Actually, most of the moves the Cubs have made this year have been pretty marginal. They started out with a need to stabilize the rotation, which they accomplished rather painlessly by picking up Hamels option. After that, they looked for infield help given having to survive Russell's suspension. Enter Descalso, a major flop who is likely completely washed up. Exit Zobrist. Exit Russell. Enter belatedly Robel Garcia who shows some promise but strikes out all the time unless he hits a home run. (Just as an aside, the Cubs optioned Ian Happ to AAA purgatory for striking out about a third of the time. Garcia has struck out 44% of the time and has been promoted to leadoff man. Go figure).
Now the Cubs seem to be shopping for a reserve infielder on the trade market even though they have a surfeit of them. Personally, I would forget about second base unless they can get Merrifield from KC for next to nothing which is not going to happen.
The Cubs also think they need a right-handed hitting platoon outfielder as a rental. Castellanos of Detroit fits the bill and I suppose he's OK, but the guy is a butcher in the field. If you think Schwarber is weak defensively, you have not seen anything yet.
Which brings up the only need the Cubs must fill, the bullpen. Early in the off-season, the Cubs announced a desire to strengthen their bullpen given the injury to their would-be closer Morrow. Also that they were broke. Enter a cavalcade of rehab cases and washed up veterans. Only Ryan has proved even marginally useful, the rest have been pretty awful or hurt. Maybe Wick has some talent. Strop and Edwards have regressed, Strop probably because of injury, Edwards because he has become something of a head case.
Enter Kimbrel, who is defensible acquisition, though he has been rushed into duty with mixed results. Enter also Holland who is another rehab project though he may be able to get guys out if you pick his spots. Enter also Phelps, who is actually pretty good and may be the best cheap pickup of the bunch.
I don't think the Cubs really know what they want at this stage or what they are prepared to give up, so I rather think a blockbuster deal is off the table. Maybe that is for the best. To illustrate the point, they are apparently shopping Maldonado. After all, despite losing at least ten games owing to their bullpen, they are just a game out of first in the division, one which pits three evenly matched rivals in what is likely to be a dogfight.
Which kind of brings me to tonight's game and their road woes in general and an admonition not to panic. With the exception of the Dodgers, all these contenders both in the Central and the East are pretty evenly matched. Even against the Dodgers, who are running away with their division, the Cubs have played pretty evenly in tough, close games.
One cannot say just how much home field matters in these contests, which is pretty much borne out by the results so far. Tuesday's loss to the Cards is a good example. It might have gone either way. Wainwright and Darvish both pitched well. The Cubs lost on a home run. Schwarber failed to come through with the bases loaded and two outs. The Cubs ran into a stupid, strike 'em out, throw him out double play in the sixth, which preceded a Rizzo double and walks to Baez and Caratini that set up the Schwarber at-bat. Might just as easily have gone the other way.
Friday, July 26, 2019
Strop, Maddon, Loss
The Cubs continue to under-perform on the road. Friday nights loss continued the trend, the third game blown by the bullpen in this stretch and the second blown by Pedro Strop. There seems to be something wrong with Strop either physically or mentally or both. In any case, he is a disaster this season as compared to his prior years of creditable service. So, incidentally, is Carl Edwards and was the recently traded Mike Montgomery. These guys were lynch pins of the Cubs bullpen in former years and highlight the big gap Epstein and Hoyer and Maddon need to fill to bring this team into and through the playoffs.
Notwithstanding the aformentioned failures, I have to question Maddon's decisions in almost all these defeats. I've always thought Maddon was a terrific clubhouse manager and a questionable and sometimes downright awful field manager. Tonight's game is a great example. Hendricks is pitching a two-hit shutout through five innings. Bote hits a two-run homer to give them a lead. Maddon pinch hits for Hendricks, the next batter, using Schwarber against a lefty. Schwarber predictably strikes out. Hendricks pitch count was getting up there, but you could tell even in the dugout he wanted to give them another inning and might easily have done so.
So this leaves four innings for the beleaguered bullpen to fill. Ryan comes in and gets two outs sandwiched around a walk. Why not let Ryan finish the inning? Instead Cishek comes in and makes heavy weather of things before eventually getting the third out. How much worse might it have been to let Ryan finish the inning?
So Cishek gets two outs in the seventh sandwiched around a walk. Kintzler replaces Cishek and gives up a single to Yelich to bring the score to 2-1 before getting the final out. The following inning, Kintzler begins an inning, like Cishek before after working out of a jam, by getting into trouble. He leaves with two men on and is replaced by Strop who blows the game by giving up a bases loaded single to give the Brewers the lead.
Now it is hard to predict guys who will be off or just plain bad, but continually putting pitchers who are struggling like Edwards Sunday and Strop Monday and Friday into game situations is just dumb. Also you have to wonder why taking out Hendricks early was smart and whether removing a pitcher who needed only a single out to escape a non-threatening situation was smart and whether sticking with pitchers who escaped trouble in stressful partial innings was smart.
I happen not to think so, but Maddon does it all the time and it does cost the Cubs victories. I reckon the Cubs bullpen has lost at least ten winnable games this year, maybe more. It is going to take more than Derek Holland to remedy this problem.
Notwithstanding the aformentioned failures, I have to question Maddon's decisions in almost all these defeats. I've always thought Maddon was a terrific clubhouse manager and a questionable and sometimes downright awful field manager. Tonight's game is a great example. Hendricks is pitching a two-hit shutout through five innings. Bote hits a two-run homer to give them a lead. Maddon pinch hits for Hendricks, the next batter, using Schwarber against a lefty. Schwarber predictably strikes out. Hendricks pitch count was getting up there, but you could tell even in the dugout he wanted to give them another inning and might easily have done so.
So this leaves four innings for the beleaguered bullpen to fill. Ryan comes in and gets two outs sandwiched around a walk. Why not let Ryan finish the inning? Instead Cishek comes in and makes heavy weather of things before eventually getting the third out. How much worse might it have been to let Ryan finish the inning?
So Cishek gets two outs in the seventh sandwiched around a walk. Kintzler replaces Cishek and gives up a single to Yelich to bring the score to 2-1 before getting the final out. The following inning, Kintzler begins an inning, like Cishek before after working out of a jam, by getting into trouble. He leaves with two men on and is replaced by Strop who blows the game by giving up a bases loaded single to give the Brewers the lead.
Now it is hard to predict guys who will be off or just plain bad, but continually putting pitchers who are struggling like Edwards Sunday and Strop Monday and Friday into game situations is just dumb. Also you have to wonder why taking out Hendricks early was smart and whether removing a pitcher who needed only a single out to escape a non-threatening situation was smart and whether sticking with pitchers who escaped trouble in stressful partial innings was smart.
I happen not to think so, but Maddon does it all the time and it does cost the Cubs victories. I reckon the Cubs bullpen has lost at least ten winnable games this year, maybe more. It is going to take more than Derek Holland to remedy this problem.
Thursday, April 4, 2019
Another Meltdown
Were it not for the by and large complete bullpen collapses in three of their first five games, the Cubs would be 4-1. The only unwinnable game was Monday night. Obviously this can’t go on. The Cubs are counting on these guys righting the ship. The whole of the offseason strategy was not to go for a big name like Kimbrel or Britton or Miller and to make minor patches in the hopes the existing core would return to form.
Make no mistake, the Cubs folded in September not just because they stopped hitting, but because their relief pitching fell apart in the aftermath of injuries to Morrow and Strop. Theoretically the remaining staff just ran out of gas or failed to perform when forced into unexpected roles down the stretch. Frankly, I bought this line too.
Now, I’m not so sure. Thus far, the only reliever whose performance so far supports this argument is Kintzler. Maybe what we are seeing is what they are, which is mediocre journeymen who are on again/off again players and nothing more. I hope not. If so, we are likely to be disappointed once again.
The key issue with the Cubs pitching is their failure to develop homegrown talent throughout the Epstein era, really streching back to end end of the Tribune regime. This cannot be fixed on the fly. Right now, aside from Cedeno and Barnette who are hurt, the only help on the farm would be Mills and Maples.
Make no mistake, the Cubs folded in September not just because they stopped hitting, but because their relief pitching fell apart in the aftermath of injuries to Morrow and Strop. Theoretically the remaining staff just ran out of gas or failed to perform when forced into unexpected roles down the stretch. Frankly, I bought this line too.
Now, I’m not so sure. Thus far, the only reliever whose performance so far supports this argument is Kintzler. Maybe what we are seeing is what they are, which is mediocre journeymen who are on again/off again players and nothing more. I hope not. If so, we are likely to be disappointed once again.
The key issue with the Cubs pitching is their failure to develop homegrown talent throughout the Epstein era, really streching back to end end of the Tribune regime. This cannot be fixed on the fly. Right now, aside from Cedeno and Barnette who are hurt, the only help on the farm would be Mills and Maples.
Sunday, March 31, 2019
An Ugly Beginning
Everyone knew the Cubs bullpen would be an issue at least until their closer returned, but the performance in Texas was really pretty awful. To score 29 runs and wind up losing two of three games to one of the worst teams in baseball has got to be of some concern. Of course, Darvish's dreadful performance and Hamels mediocre start had something to do with it, but both those guys left with a lead.
What I find of rather more concern than just two days of crappy games, though, is the apparent lack of defined roles in the game plan and the lack of confidence being demonstrated by Maddon in his staff. Looking back on Saturday's game, for example, I know that the Cubs had some concerns mapping out the rotation with two off-days breaking up the first five games. So the decision to bring in Quintana in the fourth inning makes some sense, especially as it pushes his first start into the Milwaukee series and Quintana owns the Brewers. Quintana pitched pretty well under the circumstances. He gave them four innings, left with the lead, and was unlucky to have been tagged for the two runs the Rangers scored in the 7th.
Still, the logical long men are Chatwood and Montgomery, so right there it looks like nobody believes in them in that spot. Actually, with the exception of bringing on Quintana early on Saturday, the rest of Maddon's bullpen usage was pretty much by the book. Of course, with the exception of Cishek and Kintzler, nobody seems to have read the same book.
I frankly don't understand why Maddon is determined to employ Edwards as his 8th inning guy despite his performance in high leverage spots like that over the past two years. Edwards has great stuff, but he seems lost these days. Cishek is the guy to use in those spots. Edwards also seems to have changed his delivery from the windup to some sort of hesitation move that the umpires announced on Sunday was illegal, so it seems it is back to the drawing board for Edwards anyway.
After watching them pitch this weekend, I don't really know about Darvish and Chatwood rounding back to form that quickly. Hamels I have no doubt will bounce back. I'm also pretty sure the remainder of the bullpen will be adequate for now except for Edwards, who, as I have noted, seems to have lost confidence.
I mean, if you average 10 runs a game, how good does your bullpen need to be. Not that great, I suppose, but better than they showed in Texas.
What I find of rather more concern than just two days of crappy games, though, is the apparent lack of defined roles in the game plan and the lack of confidence being demonstrated by Maddon in his staff. Looking back on Saturday's game, for example, I know that the Cubs had some concerns mapping out the rotation with two off-days breaking up the first five games. So the decision to bring in Quintana in the fourth inning makes some sense, especially as it pushes his first start into the Milwaukee series and Quintana owns the Brewers. Quintana pitched pretty well under the circumstances. He gave them four innings, left with the lead, and was unlucky to have been tagged for the two runs the Rangers scored in the 7th.
Still, the logical long men are Chatwood and Montgomery, so right there it looks like nobody believes in them in that spot. Actually, with the exception of bringing on Quintana early on Saturday, the rest of Maddon's bullpen usage was pretty much by the book. Of course, with the exception of Cishek and Kintzler, nobody seems to have read the same book.
I frankly don't understand why Maddon is determined to employ Edwards as his 8th inning guy despite his performance in high leverage spots like that over the past two years. Edwards has great stuff, but he seems lost these days. Cishek is the guy to use in those spots. Edwards also seems to have changed his delivery from the windup to some sort of hesitation move that the umpires announced on Sunday was illegal, so it seems it is back to the drawing board for Edwards anyway.
After watching them pitch this weekend, I don't really know about Darvish and Chatwood rounding back to form that quickly. Hamels I have no doubt will bounce back. I'm also pretty sure the remainder of the bullpen will be adequate for now except for Edwards, who, as I have noted, seems to have lost confidence.
I mean, if you average 10 runs a game, how good does your bullpen need to be. Not that great, I suppose, but better than they showed in Texas.
Sunday, March 24, 2019
Latest Moves
I was surprised to see that the Cubs optioned Ian Happ to AAA. Happ has had a bad spring and continues to strike out too often. On the other hand, he does get on base. One supposes this is a temporary measure along the lines of the Schwarber demotion earlier in his career.
People are speculating about the Cubs searching the waiver wire for a center-fielder, presumably a left-handed hitter. Kind of strange from my viewpoint. The team can field an all left-handed or all right-handed outfield with the players who remain in that Heyward can play a more than adequate center field to spell Almora. Anybody available who has been cut is likely a worse alternative than Happ. Also, Zagunis had had a terrific spring and should make the roster even if Happ were to stick. Personally, I'd like to see them dump Heyward. The Giants are apparently looking for outfield help.
Finally, the Cubs have finally given up on Duensing. Picking up Collins on a major league deal is kind of odd given the number of other options they have, but anyone is better than Duensing at this point. Now, if they finish the job and dump Kintzler as well...
People are speculating about the Cubs searching the waiver wire for a center-fielder, presumably a left-handed hitter. Kind of strange from my viewpoint. The team can field an all left-handed or all right-handed outfield with the players who remain in that Heyward can play a more than adequate center field to spell Almora. Anybody available who has been cut is likely a worse alternative than Happ. Also, Zagunis had had a terrific spring and should make the roster even if Happ were to stick. Personally, I'd like to see them dump Heyward. The Giants are apparently looking for outfield help.
Finally, the Cubs have finally given up on Duensing. Picking up Collins on a major league deal is kind of odd given the number of other options they have, but anyone is better than Duensing at this point. Now, if they finish the job and dump Kintzler as well...
Monday, February 11, 2019
Pitchers and Catchers Report
It has been a relatively dull off-season for the Cubs as well as for the headline free agents. I was not surprised by the Cubs not making any really significant moves this winter. They evidently believe they have the players they need to succeed. You cannot blame them for this. The team won 95 games despite losing its closer mid-season and its replacement closer for most of September, despite a key injury to Kris Bryant, despite the suspension of their starting shortstop, and despite losing two of their five starting pitchers for most of the year. The only surprise might be they did not go out and get stronger bullpen pieces, especially left-handers. However, some of the under the radar pickups are fairly intriguing.
The big surprise of the off-season has been the lack of market movement for Harper and Machado. There is a lot of discontent on the players side about this, even suggestions of complicity among the owners to depress their market value. Although I always support the workers point-of-view, I have my doubts this situation is not just he result of serious analysis on the part of the league's front offices.
What I mean here is that, realistically, is one guy worth a ten year commitment of something like a fourth of your payroll. Most of the big contract position players have been long-term flops. Did Albert Pujols or Robinson Cano bring home championships to their respective franchises? Don't all these guys turn into dead weights as they age? Granted, Harper and Machado are hitting the free agent market in their mid-twenties, but ten years is a big gamble on any one player.
You can argue that Machado brought the Dodgers to the World Series, but in his years with the Orioles, his role was not transformative. This is even more the case with Harper who was not able to carry the Nationals beyond the first round despite having a pretty solid team behind him.
I rather think teams are going to shoot for shorter-term contracts for this type of player, maybe even one to three year deals at really exorbitant numbers with opt-outs thrown in as incentives. Of course, the Cubs got the worst of both worlds in Heyward who has turned out to stink most of the time and is pulling down $20MM a season. Should he turn it around and play back to his earlier form, he will opt out; should he continue to disappoint, the Cubs are stuck.
The big surprise of the off-season has been the lack of market movement for Harper and Machado. There is a lot of discontent on the players side about this, even suggestions of complicity among the owners to depress their market value. Although I always support the workers point-of-view, I have my doubts this situation is not just he result of serious analysis on the part of the league's front offices.
What I mean here is that, realistically, is one guy worth a ten year commitment of something like a fourth of your payroll. Most of the big contract position players have been long-term flops. Did Albert Pujols or Robinson Cano bring home championships to their respective franchises? Don't all these guys turn into dead weights as they age? Granted, Harper and Machado are hitting the free agent market in their mid-twenties, but ten years is a big gamble on any one player.
You can argue that Machado brought the Dodgers to the World Series, but in his years with the Orioles, his role was not transformative. This is even more the case with Harper who was not able to carry the Nationals beyond the first round despite having a pretty solid team behind him.
I rather think teams are going to shoot for shorter-term contracts for this type of player, maybe even one to three year deals at really exorbitant numbers with opt-outs thrown in as incentives. Of course, the Cubs got the worst of both worlds in Heyward who has turned out to stink most of the time and is pulling down $20MM a season. Should he turn it around and play back to his earlier form, he will opt out; should he continue to disappoint, the Cubs are stuck.
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