It has been a relatively dull off-season for the Cubs as well as for the headline free agents. I was not surprised by the Cubs not making any really significant moves this winter. They evidently believe they have the players they need to succeed. You cannot blame them for this. The team won 95 games despite losing its closer mid-season and its replacement closer for most of September, despite a key injury to Kris Bryant, despite the suspension of their starting shortstop, and despite losing two of their five starting pitchers for most of the year. The only surprise might be they did not go out and get stronger bullpen pieces, especially left-handers. However, some of the under the radar pickups are fairly intriguing.
The big surprise of the off-season has been the lack of market movement for Harper and Machado. There is a lot of discontent on the players side about this, even suggestions of complicity among the owners to depress their market value. Although I always support the workers point-of-view, I have my doubts this situation is not just he result of serious analysis on the part of the league's front offices.
What I mean here is that, realistically, is one guy worth a ten year commitment of something like a fourth of your payroll. Most of the big contract position players have been long-term flops. Did Albert Pujols or Robinson Cano bring home championships to their respective franchises? Don't all these guys turn into dead weights as they age? Granted, Harper and Machado are hitting the free agent market in their mid-twenties, but ten years is a big gamble on any one player.
You can argue that Machado brought the Dodgers to the World Series, but in his years with the Orioles, his role was not transformative. This is even more the case with Harper who was not able to carry the Nationals beyond the first round despite having a pretty solid team behind him.
I rather think teams are going to shoot for shorter-term contracts for this type of player, maybe even one to three year deals at really exorbitant numbers with opt-outs thrown in as incentives. Of course, the Cubs got the worst of both worlds in Heyward who has turned out to stink most of the time and is pulling down $20MM a season. Should he turn it around and play back to his earlier form, he will opt out; should he continue to disappoint, the Cubs are stuck.
