Scherholtz showed unexpected patience in drawing a leadoff walk to start the Fourth. Nice piece of hitting by Castillo to double on the hit and run. The Cubs have a chance for a big inning, although they have the bottom of the order coming up - and I mean the bottom pretty literally with Barney out of the lineup.
Valbuena has a terrible at-bat, strikes out without seeing a hitable strike. Lillibridge completely overmatched again. These guys strike out way to much. Eight of the last nine outs for the Cubs are strikeouts. Maybe they can do some damage next inning when their major league hitters come up.
Samardzija has settled in well. Starting to get a lot of easy grounders. 63 pitches to Burnett's 75. Now or never for Cubs to break out in the fifth.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Live blog - Third Inning
DeJesus doesn't look good against Burnett. Castro singles, steal second, but Rizzo strikes out. Soriano looks bad striking out.
The Pirates have started taking aggressive ABs, which is going to help Samardzija a lot. He's been sharp since the first inning
Pitch count after three innings: Burnett 53, Samardzija 50. I'd have to give Samardzija the edge so far, especially with a 2-0 lead. If the Cubs stay reasonably patient, they are likely to get a shot at Burnett as the game progresses.
The Pirates have started taking aggressive ABs, which is going to help Samardzija a lot. He's been sharp since the first inning
Pitch count after three innings: Burnett 53, Samardzija 50. I'd have to give Samardzija the edge so far, especially with a 2-0 lead. If the Cubs stay reasonably patient, they are likely to get a shot at Burnett as the game progresses.
Live blog - Second Inning
Valbuena called out on strikes. Never looked comfortable, but he saw seven pitches. Lillibridge overmatched. Burnett stikes out the side, but he had to throw a lot of pitches, 34 through two innings.
Speaking of throwing a lot of pitches, though, Samardzija needed 22 in the first, should have been a lot less. Samardzija looks good so far, strikes out last two hitters after a leadoff single.
Speaking of throwing a lot of pitches, though, Samardzija needed 22 in the first, should have been a lot less. Samardzija looks good so far, strikes out last two hitters after a leadoff single.
Live Blog - Opening Day - 1st Inning
Cubs lineup: DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano, Scherholtz, Castillo, Valbuena, Lillibridge, Samardzija.
DeJesus strikes out. Burnett is throwing a little harder than I remember. Pitched DeJesus inside. Fooled him with a high fastball for called Strike Three.
Castro gets a single on first breaking ball Burnett has thrown.
Rizzo homers on first pitch. Looked like a high change-up, but I could be wrong.
Soriano an easy out. Scherholtz gets a bloop single, but Castillo grounds out to first on hit and run. Burnett doesn't look sharp.
Samardzija throwing hard, but wild. Walks Marte to start the game. First chance for Lillibridge. Botches up routine double play ball. Bad news here. McCutcheon hits a double play ball that Lillibridge fails to convert. Bad luck here. Samardzija comes back to strike out the next two hitters, which si jsut as well given the defense behind him.
DeJesus strikes out. Burnett is throwing a little harder than I remember. Pitched DeJesus inside. Fooled him with a high fastball for called Strike Three.
Castro gets a single on first breaking ball Burnett has thrown.
Rizzo homers on first pitch. Looked like a high change-up, but I could be wrong.
Soriano an easy out. Scherholtz gets a bloop single, but Castillo grounds out to first on hit and run. Burnett doesn't look sharp.
Samardzija throwing hard, but wild. Walks Marte to start the game. First chance for Lillibridge. Botches up routine double play ball. Bad news here. McCutcheon hits a double play ball that Lillibridge fails to convert. Bad luck here. Samardzija comes back to strike out the next two hitters, which si jsut as well given the defense behind him.
Play Ball!
Getting set up for the road opener. I regret to say my expectations for this season are pretty low. The Cubs open the season with their third baseman, second baseman, and two of their three best pitchers on the disabled list. Not good.
As for today's game, who knows? Most of these early season games boil down to pitching. Samardzija has looked good this spring and ordinarily I would give the Cubs the edge here, but Burnett always gives the Cubs fits.
Snowed this morning in Pittsburgh.
As for today's game, who knows? Most of these early season games boil down to pitching. Samardzija has looked good this spring and ordinarily I would give the Cubs the edge here, but Burnett always gives the Cubs fits.
Snowed this morning in Pittsburgh.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Spring Training
Well, we're half way through Spring Training and nothing much is new. Stewart, Vitters, and Castro are hurt or were hurt. Junior Lake is out four to six weeks. Garza and Baker, two of the three proven major league starting pitchers, are likely to start the season on the DL. With these two guys healthy, the Cubs have a decent enough rotation that is rounded out by Jackson, Wood, and Samardzija. Without them, adding Feldman and Villanueva into the mix, they are mediocre at best.
Epstein and Hoyer have tried to improve things here, but they tried last year as well. You know that, for some largely inexplicable reason I may have time to address later in another piece, they are determined to trade veteran pitching at the break even if they get nothing or next to nothing back in return. So look for trouble if they start slow, which is almost guaranteed to happen.
As for other spring training news, Soler, Baez, Christian Villanueva, and Lake look good, but, of course, they are two years away at best. Cubs fans know that Felix Pie and numerous other talents looked good at this stage only to fizzle when they hit the majors. Brett Jackson's swing also looks good, better than in the past. However, he has struck out five times in fourteen at-bats, so the results so far are fairly consistent with past performances.
Actually, all of the guys mentioned above strike out too often. Sveum gave a pretty good assessment of Lake which might in turn apply to most of these young players and many of the young talents cropping up with other teams as well. This from a Chicago Sun-Times article:
None of the youth news at this stage really matters all that much except to note there is no real surprise phenom either among the relievers or the position players to create the impression of hope for this season. So far, you can conclude their pitching ought to be a little better if they can get healthy. Also they have improved at catcher and somewhat with the likely outfield platoons. They still do not have a major league third baseman.
Epstein and Hoyer have tried to improve things here, but they tried last year as well. You know that, for some largely inexplicable reason I may have time to address later in another piece, they are determined to trade veteran pitching at the break even if they get nothing or next to nothing back in return. So look for trouble if they start slow, which is almost guaranteed to happen.
As for other spring training news, Soler, Baez, Christian Villanueva, and Lake look good, but, of course, they are two years away at best. Cubs fans know that Felix Pie and numerous other talents looked good at this stage only to fizzle when they hit the majors. Brett Jackson's swing also looks good, better than in the past. However, he has struck out five times in fourteen at-bats, so the results so far are fairly consistent with past performances.
Actually, all of the guys mentioned above strike out too often. Sveum gave a pretty good assessment of Lake which might in turn apply to most of these young players and many of the young talents cropping up with other teams as well. This from a Chicago Sun-Times article:
“[He has] all the tools,’’ Sveum said. “Swinging the bat, he’s obviously got a lot to learn. He’s a very premeditated swinger. He’s not getting good pitches to hit. He’s swinging at arm action a lot. And he’s a guy with a lot of bat speed who doesn’t have to be a premeditated swinger.“It’s a nice player to have, but there’s still development there.”
None of the youth news at this stage really matters all that much except to note there is no real surprise phenom either among the relievers or the position players to create the impression of hope for this season. So far, you can conclude their pitching ought to be a little better if they can get healthy. Also they have improved at catcher and somewhat with the likely outfield platoons. They still do not have a major league third baseman.
Friday, February 15, 2013
Feldman!
I saw a disturbing post from Carrie Muscat at MLB.com, or at least a disturbing headline to the effect that Scott Feldman would start for the Cubs on Opening Day. Turns out when you read the article it merely implies that because Scott Baker is unlikely to be ready to pitch in the majors by the beginning of the season, Feldman is likely to be the teams fourth or fifth starter.
Still, Scott Feldman? I know a lot of stat guys think his underlying numbers are good, or really not as bad as his performance indicates, but listen, this guy is not now a first-rate starting pitcher, and, what's more, he has always been better in relief throughout his career. So lets not kid ourselves, Feldman is more of a question than an answer.
The Cubs have made it a priority to improve their starting pitching during the off-season. Seeing such an alarming headline as that alluded to above rather got me thinking just how much they had succeeded.
Last year, having dumped Carlos Zambrano in favor of Chris Volstad, the Cubs came into the season with seven potential starters. Volstad was joined by Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, and Randy Wells.
A pretty iffy bunch to say the least. Dempster, Wood, Wells, and Volstad were coming off down seasons. Samardzija was taking on a new role. Really only Garza and Maholm were consistent players from a statistical point-of-view.
I looked up a bunch of statistical measures and settled on WAR, wins above replacement, as a measuring tool. Maybe not the best, but as good as any without getting into a whole lot of obscure reasoning. Adding up the prior season's, 2011, WARs for all seven gave a total of 6.2. Looked at another way, the average total WARs for the same group for their careers to that point was 7.5 (the sum of each season's WAR divided by the number of seasons).
Their collective achievement for 2012 was 6.9. Dempster and Maholm had better than average years, though, of course, they were traded away at the deadline, so some of their production contributed to the success of other teams. Samardzija had a good year. Garza got hurt. Wood was a wash. Volstad was worse than he had been in the past, much worse, which is really saying something since he had been pretty bad in 2011. Wells continued a downward spiral.
Just to give you an idea, the combined WAR for the Giants five starters going into last year was 12.6 and the average career WAR for the same five is 11.6. In other words, these guys are good. Statistically you can say that their staff is almost twice as likely to contribute to a victory as the Cubs staff was.
I ran the same stats summary for this season, again using seven potential starters. Besides the returning trio of Garza, Samardzija, and Wood, I have added in Feldman, Baker, Villanueva, and Edwin Jackson.
Surprisingly, the combined WAR for the seven in 2012 is 6.0, less than a similar figure for the likely Cubs starters in 2011. This number should probably be taken with more than a grain of salt as their two best pitchers, Garza and Baker, are coming off seasons that were curtailed by injury. In Baker's case, he missed the entire season, so that his WAR for 2012 is zero.
The career average for this group is likely a better predictor of performance, but that is only 6.8. Just from this admittedly cursory analysis, you have to conclude that the Cubs rotation is still an iffy proposition. Garza and Baker are the best, followed by Samardzija, but Garza and Baker are coming off injuries and Samardzija is going into only his second year as a full-time starter.
Jackson had what is arguably a down year statistically with a division winning team, so you have to wonder whether he is a definite upgrade or a relatively expensive wash. Of the others, Villanueva has some upside but more likely winds up in the bullpen. Feldman doesn't look like much from his past performances as a starter. Wood has some upside as well and may be this season's Samardzija if he gets the chance.
Still, of the additions, only Baker looks like a potential difference-maker in this rotation based on past history and only if he regains the form he displayed prior to surgery.
Which is not to say their starting pitching disqualifies them from any improvement, just that it does not guarantee any improvement. Put another way, the Giants win because of their pitching. This year, much as last, the Cubs will not win because of their pitching.
Last year the Cubs lost and lost a lot but whilst their staff was intact, they did not lose because of their starting pitching. They lost because they didn't score runs. This year looks like more of the same.
Still, Scott Feldman? I know a lot of stat guys think his underlying numbers are good, or really not as bad as his performance indicates, but listen, this guy is not now a first-rate starting pitcher, and, what's more, he has always been better in relief throughout his career. So lets not kid ourselves, Feldman is more of a question than an answer.
The Cubs have made it a priority to improve their starting pitching during the off-season. Seeing such an alarming headline as that alluded to above rather got me thinking just how much they had succeeded.
Last year, having dumped Carlos Zambrano in favor of Chris Volstad, the Cubs came into the season with seven potential starters. Volstad was joined by Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, and Randy Wells.
A pretty iffy bunch to say the least. Dempster, Wood, Wells, and Volstad were coming off down seasons. Samardzija was taking on a new role. Really only Garza and Maholm were consistent players from a statistical point-of-view.
I looked up a bunch of statistical measures and settled on WAR, wins above replacement, as a measuring tool. Maybe not the best, but as good as any without getting into a whole lot of obscure reasoning. Adding up the prior season's, 2011, WARs for all seven gave a total of 6.2. Looked at another way, the average total WARs for the same group for their careers to that point was 7.5 (the sum of each season's WAR divided by the number of seasons).
Their collective achievement for 2012 was 6.9. Dempster and Maholm had better than average years, though, of course, they were traded away at the deadline, so some of their production contributed to the success of other teams. Samardzija had a good year. Garza got hurt. Wood was a wash. Volstad was worse than he had been in the past, much worse, which is really saying something since he had been pretty bad in 2011. Wells continued a downward spiral.
Just to give you an idea, the combined WAR for the Giants five starters going into last year was 12.6 and the average career WAR for the same five is 11.6. In other words, these guys are good. Statistically you can say that their staff is almost twice as likely to contribute to a victory as the Cubs staff was.
I ran the same stats summary for this season, again using seven potential starters. Besides the returning trio of Garza, Samardzija, and Wood, I have added in Feldman, Baker, Villanueva, and Edwin Jackson.
Surprisingly, the combined WAR for the seven in 2012 is 6.0, less than a similar figure for the likely Cubs starters in 2011. This number should probably be taken with more than a grain of salt as their two best pitchers, Garza and Baker, are coming off seasons that were curtailed by injury. In Baker's case, he missed the entire season, so that his WAR for 2012 is zero.
The career average for this group is likely a better predictor of performance, but that is only 6.8. Just from this admittedly cursory analysis, you have to conclude that the Cubs rotation is still an iffy proposition. Garza and Baker are the best, followed by Samardzija, but Garza and Baker are coming off injuries and Samardzija is going into only his second year as a full-time starter.
Jackson had what is arguably a down year statistically with a division winning team, so you have to wonder whether he is a definite upgrade or a relatively expensive wash. Of the others, Villanueva has some upside but more likely winds up in the bullpen. Feldman doesn't look like much from his past performances as a starter. Wood has some upside as well and may be this season's Samardzija if he gets the chance.
Still, of the additions, only Baker looks like a potential difference-maker in this rotation based on past history and only if he regains the form he displayed prior to surgery.
Which is not to say their starting pitching disqualifies them from any improvement, just that it does not guarantee any improvement. Put another way, the Giants win because of their pitching. This year, much as last, the Cubs will not win because of their pitching.
Last year the Cubs lost and lost a lot but whilst their staff was intact, they did not lose because of their starting pitching. They lost because they didn't score runs. This year looks like more of the same.
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