Spring Training So Far

So far this team looks like a continuation of past seasons, which means, of course, spotty pitching, no patience, no runs, not much excitement.  Yesterday, Dale Sveum, now the third base coach of the Royals, visited Mesa.  He said he had no regrets and would not have done anything differently. I suppose that is why he was fired.

The biggest disappointment to date is really the strategy the Cubs have adopted in their early games in terms of who is getting a serious look.  These games seem designed to showcase some of the marginal talent competing for roster spots, the guys who are non-roster invitees or players signed to minor league contracts, not the decent regular players or the hot-shot prospects.  Kind an odd perspective for a team this bad.

In all honesty, in particular if you look at the 40-man roster, there is not much room to add or subtract without running into protected prospects.  So, partly as a result of this, for a team still in rebuild mode and for a team that is so appallingly bad, there are relatively view spots at issue.  Go figure.

Some of this apparent contradiction is the result of the Cubs development plan for young players, which consists in bringing them along quite methodically through each level of the minor leagues, as well as being too cheap to let prospects accumulate major league playing time while the Cubs are unlikely to contend. This is a bit of Catch-22 for the kids, as the Cubs are likely to contend only if they eventually bring up the kids and let them play.

In any case, the Cubs have major league talent at only four positions: catcher, first base, second base, and shortstop.  Also, it is not as if the talent at these positions is without question marks.  Strangely enough, I guess in view of his bad 2013 season offensively, Darwin Barney's job is in doubt. Management keeps trotting out the flawed utility man Emilio Bonifacio as some sort of alternative. Bonifacio is fast and steals bases. A problem with his game, however, is he hardly ever gets on base. Also, he cannot catch or throw.

As to the other positions, someone is under the illusion that guys like Murphy and Valbuena and Ruggiano and Sweeney and Schierholtz are players who belong in the lineup every day and can provide a transition to better things.  If they were, the Cubs would not have lost over a hundred games in 2012 and nearly as many in 2013.  Still, these guys will all be coming north with the team.

Given the fact the Cubs will break camp with 12 pitchers and two catchers, when you add in the players who seem to have a lock on spots to fill out the remaining 11, it leaves very little competition to be had and very little improvement to anticipate. Assuming the Cubs stick with the third base platoon of Murphy and Valbuena, that means there is only one slot for certain left for the infield, a slot seemingly reserved for the aforementioned Bonifacio. Pretty depressing, eh?  Even if Olt is given a shot at third base, that just means they will cut Murphy.

Now, assuming Lake, Schierholtz, Ruggiano, and Sweeney are locks,  you get only two remaining roster spots to fill, likely a utility infielder and a reserve outfielder. What is kind of puzzling, though, is how tight the 40 man roster is packed and how little room for manoueuvre exists.  Maybe some of the pitchers like Dallas Bieler are expendable, but certainly none of the outfielders are likely to go to make room for a Chris Coglan, for example.  Nor are any of the infielders likely to be cut loose.  Maybe Logan Watkins would clear waivers.

So not only is the roster tight and the major league ready talent thin, but you have to wonder why all these non-roster invitees are playing now.  I mean, there are fifteen position players in this category and the only prospects among them are Baez and Almora, so how come these other guys are getting such a hard look?  To my mind, it rather telegraphs management's intentions, which are to pretty much hold back any talent and field another team that is just as bad as was fielded the past two seasons.  In fact, almost the identical team.  It makes you wonder, doesn't it?

Spring

At least in Arizona.  Here, in Chicago, not so good.

As far as Cubs news goes, not so good either.  Actually, this spring training so far has not provided the usual happy talk stories we have come to expect.  A shame really, as these typical stories, which I have on occasion summarized on this blog before they actually occurred, did provide some respite from the cold winter season.

Perhaps the lack of happy talk is a function of the lack of activity the Cubs manifested in the off-season.  The scorecard so far: a middle of the road closer (Veras), several third-rate backup catchers (Kottaras & co.), an OK left-handed specialist (Wright), two "starter" rehab projects likely to be traded if they win more than five games before the All-Star break (Hammel and MacDonald), a right -handed hitting journeyman outfielder (Ruggiano).  Not much to write home about, eh?

Epstein does assure us, however, we are on the right track, but, of course, it's not an easy track.  And, of course, there's plenty of money in the kitty just in case a difference-maker comes along we can pick up cheap or there happens, by some wild stretch of the imagination, to be a difference to be made this season or next.

People still seem to have faith in Epstein & co., although there are signs it is beginning to wane ever so slightly.  Still, everybody seems to be up in arms about how Jeff Samardzija is showing just what a little money-grubber he is by not signing a low-ball extension.  If there is any team more ruthless than the Cubs are now in terms of loyalty and the strict monetary valuation of their assets, I'd like to know about it.

In any case, here's the scorecard on Epstein/Hoyer.  They do seem to have some legitimate prospects in the minor league system.  Most, if not all, of the hottest properties were acquired through the draft or international signings.  As to the trades, the Cubs have traded off more middle of the rotation pitchers than you can count, plus a first-class relief pitcher (Marshall), plus a couple of major league outfielders with declining skills (Soriano and DeJesus).

In return, they have brought in a bunch of minor league prospects who were not at the top of their former team's prospect list, along with several guys who might be major league talents if they ever recover from serious injuries.  There are only four players on the roster acquired via trades: Ruggiano, Wood, Strop, and Rizzo.  The only unequivocal plus trade was Marshall for Wood.

You wonder what sort of sense some of the evaluations the front office makes other than monetary ones.  The Cubs have by and large passed on mid-rotation starters like Jimenez and Garza.  These guys generally will command contracts in the neighborhood of $50MM and four years.  Players like them are a bit of a crap-shoot, but they can really help a team.  The Cubs actually traded Garza to the Rangers.  He signed this off-season with the Brewers for, essentially, the same deal the Cubs gave Jackson last year.

Instead, the Cubs have gone for real rehab projects or back of the rotation pitchers like Maholm and Feldman and so on, whom they propmptly flipped at the trade deadline.  But, unaccountably, they signed the decidedly inferior Jackson to a similar deal and seem disinclined to make the same offer to Samardzija.  There is some kind of logic here, but it escapes me right now.

Oh, well, the season is just around the corner.  They cannot get any worse than they have been the last four years, can they?  Don't answer that question now, OK?

Foiled Again

My apologies for not having posted in over a month.  Lots of things going on in my life, not so much in the life of the Cubs, who seem remarkably content to remain one of the worst major league teams in baseball whilst holding out the hope of future greatness blossoming just beneath the surface.

The big news this week is the Cubs lost out in the Tanaka sweepstakes, just as they lost out in Year 1 of the Epstein reign in both the Cespedes and Darvish courtships.  Beyond the bad luck part of it is the simple truth that no free agent of difference-making quality in his right mind would want to play for the Cubs now no matter how much money or how many years the team guaranteed.

Gordon Wittenmeyer, in a recent column, pointed out these and other sad flaws in the Cubs plan, most of which points we have been emphasizing in this blog for quite a while.  The Cubs have a business plan, not a baseball plan, nor even anything remotely resembling a hybrid of the two.  They are a major market team that makes a lot of money but refuses to spend as a major market team needs to spend.

I'm not suggesting the Cubs go out and blow a ton of money on overpriced free agents like Pujols or even guys like Ellsbury who have some good years left.  But there are guys around every year who can elevate the team to at least mediocrity, so that somehow when a real established talent who might take the team up a level comes along, he will not just look the other way at a serious offer.

The other thing is the Cubs really cannot afford to trade decent starting pitchers who are under team control at the trade deadline for A and AA prospects.  This off-season the Cubs pretty much stood pat.  They picked up a right-handed hitting platoon player to complement Nate Schierholtz.  OK, but neither one of these guys is good enough to play anything but a bench role on a contending team.

They strengthened their relief pitching, which has been inconsistent for several years.  Fine.  However, with a pitching staff that consists of two good starters in Wood and Samardzija, one has-been or never was in Jackson, and one failed prospect in Arrieta, plus a swingman in Villanueva, and a pitcher to be named later, that bullpen is going to burn out in two months max.

There are three decent free agent pitchers now on the market, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez. and Ervin Santana.  The Cubs need to make a run at one of these if only to demonstrate they are serious.  Any of the three make more sense than Edwin Jackson did last year.  They also need to extend Samardzija.  The last thing they need to do to have any chance at finishing somewhere near .500 is to get themselves a real center fielder who can catch, get on base, and hit his way out of a paper bag.  God knows where they can find one, but unless they can somehow resurrect the career of Brett Jackson, they are pretty much DOA again this year.

Ho-hum

I haven't written to this blog lately because, quite honestly, there is nothing to say.  The winter meetings are about to pass into the books and the Cubs have, predictably, done nothing at all, or next to nothing.

As I have noted before, I have nothing against building from the bottom up.  I just think you can do so and still field a team that is marginally competitive and entertaining.  I also think that to the extent you do not at least try to become mediocre, you penalize the handful of genuinely talented players you may have by forcing them to play like losers in games that everybody knows do not matter.

So far then, the Cubs acquired several placeholders of note.  They traded Bogusevic to the Marlins for Ruggiano, a right-handed slugger who presumably will platoon with Nate Schierholtz in RF.  OK, so you are counting on Schierholtz to come back and hit .250, drive in 70 runs and Ruggiano to add some right-handed pop.

This gives you the illusion of having a complete right-fielder who hits 30 homers and drives in 100 runs.  Ruggiano is Hairston revisited.  Looks good on paper, but on the field it is about as meaningless as the great third base tandem that produced similar stats last year but no wins to speak of.

All these guys are journeyman players who do not get on base or hit for average and who strike out a lot.  For the past few years, the Cubs have had the worst outfield in baseball in terms of speed, hitting, and defensive skills.  This year, they go into the season with a likely starting alignment of Lake, Sweeney, and the aforementioned platoon.  Lake is the only player of this group with any genuine potential and he has a skill set more or less akin to that of Starlin Castro when he first came up.

In addition to the Ruggiano pickup, the Cubs added a left-handed hitting catcher, George Kottaras, who can neither hit nor catch and a left-handed pitcher, Wesley Wright, who will definitely help out James Russell in the bullpen, but, whoopty-do, is that all there is?

Renteria

So the choice is Rick Renteria.  We are hearing all the good things it is possible to make up about this guy.  Some of them may be true.  Some may not.  At bottom, unless you are dealing with a proven commodity, you have to defer to management in terms of the choices they make.  In any case, how could he be a worse choice than Dale Sveum?  Of course, on the other side of the ledger, the same team that chose Sveum has chosen Renteria.

In other news, we hear from Theo Epstein that the Cubs will be passionate in their pursuit of quality pitching.  Sounds good, but lets recall that in their brief tenure, Epstein and Hoyer have traded away five starting pitchers of some ability, Cashner, Dempster, Maholm, Feldman, and Garza, only one of whom, Dempster, who is over the hill, would have any difficulty breaking the Cubs current rotation.  In addition, they traded the solid set up man Sean Marshall.

Now they have received a bunch of guys in return and one of more of them might turn out to be keepers, but, so far, in terms of major league talent, they have got back Anthony Rizzo, a first baseman, and Travis Wood, a genuine good pitcher.  Still, I doubt anyone would care to hang their hat on that level of return.

Supposedly the Cubs are all in on the Japanese phenom Masahiro Tanaka.  One hopes this means what it says.  Last time around, the Cubs underbid on two genuine star international free agents, Darvish and Cespedes.  They would have been a different team with either of those players on the field.

Back to Renteria, one legitimate concern, actually two, is his history.  Everybody talks about how great he is in developing young talent, but I cannot recall a single young talent, a real talent, that San Diego has developed recently.  Of equal concern is that San Diego doesn't exactly have the reputation of being a franchise that has a winning tradition.

The Way Forward?

Hey, I don't know about other fans, but I'm a little confused about the "plan."  In the sense of, geez, what is the plan?  So far we have had the firing of Dale Sveum, completely justified, but something that was initially presented to the world as not just a rejection of Sveum's style and methods, but a step toward bringing in a genuinely successful manager who might turn things around, namely, Joe Girardi.

Now maybe that was never in the cards, but no one among the Cubs brass made much of an effort to deny the rumors and it does appear some behind the scenes dealing was going on and the Cubs lost out.  A critical view here is they were played.

So now, in the managerial search, we hear, several hours before he takes the Detroit job, that Brad Ausmus is a serious candidate.  So much for that.  Next we hear that Torey Lovullo of the Red Sox is in the mix, but, unfortunately the Red Sox are invoking some sort of agreement that the Cubs made not to hire any of their people.  Not ever.

That's a little weird because most of the non-competition agreements I know of pertain to the hiring of individuals who are on the payroll at the time of the agreement, not several years after.  Lovullo came over to Boston from the Toronto organization along with John Farrell a year after Theo Epstein left.  In any case, the whole thing is a bit of a shambles.

Other rumors and pronouncement from on high.  The Cubs will not seriously compete in the free agent market this year, primarily because their farm system is so well stocked with prospects who are at least two years away from the majors.  Oh, um, whatever.  The truth is that there are several players who would be an instant upgrade for the Cubs.  The best ones would be expensive, but fact is that teams cannot compete without making an investment in good players, players who make a difference.  The Pirates and Royal, for example, after years of building up their farm systems, only became respectable when they invested resources in players who would make a difference right now at the major league level.

Another random thought.  Jeff Sarmardzija and the Cubs have not been able reach agreement on a contract extension.  So all the experts naturally make him the next Matt Garza.  Got to trade this puppy while we can still land the pick of someone's A ball prospects who are three years off.  I've been critical of Samardzija in the past, but he is a pretty good pitcher and guys of his ability and age get  five year contracts in the range of $13MM-$15MM per year.

Final Thoughts on the Series

Ultimately I think the Red Sox won because they saw more pitches from the Cardinals starters than the Cardinals saw from them.  Post-season ball, especially late in October in northern cities often boils down to pitching.  The one problem with the way the Cards are built is they take a very aggressive approach at the plate.  This worked well for them all season, although you have to question whether that same tactic can be sustained.  They have good hitters, but when it comes down to the crunch, good pitching can silence these bats.  Boston's starters were pitching into the eighth inning most of the time and then turning it over to Uehara.  St. Louis's starters, on the other hand, were up to 100 pitches by the sixth inning.

There is a lesson here for the Cubs.