Wind Blowing Out - Same Result

Though I certainly would like to do so, just because I think he is basically a dunce, I can't blame Lou for this loss. You could tell from the start that they were going to lose. They were uppercutting everything. This is not a smart team and when they are going bad, they don't make adjustments. Lilly was getting everything up and lost command, so the result was a 13-5 trouncing. Actually, I have not been impressed with Lilly since his return even though he beat the Brewers last Saturday. He was pitching up in the zone then too, but, hey, if there is a dumber team in baseball than the Cubs it has to be the Brewers.

I read an interesting article about Lou Piniella and his management style at Bleacher Report. I don't agree with all of the author's recommendations, but it is worth a read. Some people wonder what I am talking about when I criticize Piniella and say he is managing on auto-pilot. Isn't he supposed to be a shoot-from-the-hip guy who is not afraid to try anything to win even if it is stupid and outlandish? Not. Piniella manages from the book. He rarely defies the lefty-righty percentages no matter who is concerned, except that his tactics often contradict even this stereotype, as he acts as if lefties can never hit lefties, whereas righties can learn to hit righties.

Things he has learned are really just generalities. Take the Fontenot bunt situation from Wednesday's game. Yes, a left-handed hitter ought to be able to pull the ball, but that's just the point. Lou acts as if - and he does this consistently - he were managing a team of generic left-handed and right-handed hitters, not these specific players. So anybody who does not accept his lazy assumptions is some kind of blockhead. But actually, if you have watched the Cubs play this year, you will have noticed that Fontenot has changed his approach a bit and that he is now often hitting the ball the other way. This has helped his performance a lot, but unfortunately, to my mind, it makes the consideration of a bunt at least something you might want to seriously think about in that situation.

A Disappointing Series

Once again, the Cubs seemed to have played to the level of their competition. They took the first game not necessarily because they played all that well, but because they got their usual fine pitching and managed to be patient enough at the plate to pull out a tenth inning victory.

The other two games, despite good pitching, fell back into the pattern of no hitting when runners are on base or when it is cold outside. Ramirez is definitely all screwed up. His double play ball in the seventh was a key play. But in general the last two games showed bad baseball, especially today's.

You also have to question Piniella's moves in the eighth inning after the Byrd double. Fontenot certainly failed to move the runner to third, but Tracy, while the percentage move, was a questionable decision, and using Nady instead of Soto who is hot and had to enter the game anyway is also an odd call.

Lou was certainly testy in the post-game interview. In fact, his performance was pretty nearly inexcusable and just plain obnoxious. The reporter - I don't know who it was - had every right to question him, but like many guys who are basically bullies at heart, Piniella got all defensive and hurt and lashed out.

Look, as Lou is so fond of saying, look, if your teams consistently play uptight and don't produce in the clutch, maybe there's something wrong with your own style. And maybe if you didn't manage on auto-pilot all the time, you'd get different results. Maybe you'd get better results.

A Series Sweep

I don't know if the Cubs have hit stride or if the Brewers pitching is really this bad, but, in any case the weekend games were a welcome relief. They have to find a way to play Colvin almost every day.

On the roster front, the Cubs sent Samardzija down to Iowa to make room for Lilly. No great surprise, but I was a bit surprised to see they were going to keep him in the bullpen. It is possible he might develop over time to a decent starter, but I don't think he will ever be suited to relief. One of the things a young pitcher like Samardzija needs is to log innings and game situations and to develop his secondary pitches and command, which he is not going to do in short relief at AAA.

Samardzija is another example of having business decisions guide baseball decisions. Hendry gave this kid an outrageous contract for an unproven talent more famous for playing football at Notre Dame. You have to wonder that part of the thinking was that a lot of Notre Dame fans are big Cubs fans and wouldn't it be a great draw to see this guy hit the big leagues with a band in the middle of a pennant race, which he did in 2008 for about a two week stretch before major league hitters figured out he had a 98 mph straight fastball and nothing else.

Juan Cruz was released by the Royals. He has been terrible the last two years in the AL and even at his best he walked a lot of guys, but he did have a good run with the Diamondbacks as a setup man. The Cubs might want to take a flyer on him for a minor league contract if he clears waivers.

Rumors

Last night's game was a good one. Dempster pitched very well, and the Cubs hitters seem to have Milwaukee's number. Lots of people are commenting on the surprising effectiveness of the Cubs' lineup, composed as it was of many bench players. What I think they don't understand is that it was a lineup, not an agglomeration of players batting in certain spots without rhyme or reason, which is most of the time what the Cubs do field, even though their regulars, on paper, look like a more formidable team. Last night's lineup had most guys batting in positions where they could contribute, and it had a nice alternation of lefties and righties and batting styles so that a pitcher was not likely to be able to get too comfortable. The result was nine runs, and the other result was that most of them came from solid innings with multiple hits and walks rather than home runs.

There are lots of rumors on the Cubs boards of looming blockbuster trades. I rather think it is a little early in the season for such talk. The most rational one is the idea of trading Gorzelanny for a proven setup man, most likely Heath Bell of the Padres. Not a bad thought. If Lilly is healthy, this brings Zambrano back to the rotation and even if he is not, there are some other options down on the farm.

Realistically, aside from finding someone to fill the hole left by the Guzman injury, the Cubs do not seem to have pressing needs that cannot be ameliorated from within their own organization, and I'm not sure they have the chips at hand to pull off a genuine blockbuster that would really improve their chances this year and into the near future. They sure don't want to trade Castro. In fact, they should seriously consider bringing him up right now.

The Cubs would surely be improved by dumping Soriano, but who wants him, what are they willing to give in exchange, and how much will it cost? Aside from Gorzelanny, the only chips on their major league roster that have value and are likely to be considered trade bait are Ted Lilly and Derrick Lee, who are both in the final year of their contracts and are at least possible candidates for being allowed to go in free agency. I would consider trading Lilly even this early in the year. He is a good pitcher, but, if you look at the numbers, he isn't that good. He is 34 and has a history of injuries. Given that the strength of the Cubs, both in the majors and minors is starting pitching, you've got to think they are going to be hesitant to tie up big money on this guy and that he could be dangled for sure around the trade deadline, especially if the Cubs are out of contention.

Lee is also a potential chip for the same reasons as Lilly, though, to my mind, the Cubs have no one coming up to replace him and moving Nady to 1B, though possible as a stopgap, is a significant downgrade. I could see a potential blockbuster in moving Lee to the Padres as part of a deal for Gonzalez, and I would take that deal in a minute if it didn't cost too much in the way of serious prospects.

Nady and Tracy are also potential trade bait, as is Baker, but I'm not sure they bring much in return. There is probably a lot of interest in some of the Cubs better minor league prospects, and the fact that Hendry has said he could move some of them is cause for some concern. This is always a problem when you have what is essentially a lame duck organization in place that is on the bubble. They want to win now, and based on past performance, it doesn't look like they know how.

Yet Another Woeful Effort

1 for 13 with runners in scoring position, 10 men left on base. That's the story. A nice effort by Gorzelanny that came apart in the sixth, partly because he lost command, also because Soriano misplayed a fly ball into a double and Fontenot committed an unlucky error. On the plus side, Fontenot and Fukudome had hits off a tough lefty. In Lou's world this shouldn't happen, although righties can always hit righties.

Anyway, this team is 6-10 after a tenth of the season. They are in serious trouble. 2-5 against two of the worst teams in baseball. It's not because of the bullpen either, though the most plausible reason for demoting Zambrano seems to be to send a message to Hendry to get Lou an experienced right-hander to complement the thoroughly incompetent Grabow for eighth inning duties. There are surely more effective ways to communicate, like maybe picking up the telephone or, God forbid, meeting face to face.

Unless the idea is to humiliate Zambrano, which makes no sense whatsoever, but then Piniella often does things that make no sense and, like many baseball lifers in management positions, is not a nice guy.

Cubs Win 9-3

So the Cubs finally played a decent game, scored runs, etc., and this made all the difference. Soriano is on a roll right now and it is fun to watch. He has about three or four of these incredible one week streaks. But listen, fans, enjoy it while it lasts because he always comes down to earth and when he does it can get pretty ugly. Ramirez continues to struggle. Over the long haul, Ramirez is much more important to the team. Last year's woes were mostly the result of his extended time on the DL. If he doesn't find himself, this team is in big trouble.

Listening to the sports radio shows and so on, I still find the Zambrano move incredible and pretty much the work of, as one commentator noted, an imbecile. Lou started nattering on about all the guys who were starters and moved to the bullpen like Smoltz and Guidry and Eckersley, but, hey, they became closers, not setup guys.

I am convinced that before the game Piniella maps out his pitching expectations and then, no matter what actually happens, just puts it on auto-pilot. Silva again was dominant, threw only 87 pitches and was pulled for a pinch-hitter with a four run lead. Why? Marmol was used to finish the game with a six run lead. Why?

There are only so many innings in a season, 1458, to be exact, say 1500 to round things off allowing for extra innings. You would like to get 200 innings from each of your starters, 1,000 innings. Realistically that's not going to happen, but lets say you are left with between 450 and 600 innings for the remaining seven guys. So for every inning you subtract from the starter's workload unnecessarily, you add innings to the bullpen. More innings for these guys, more stress, more chance for failure. 70 innings or so is ideal for most relievers, maybe 80 for your closer who by definition ought to be the best and most durable. Start pushing 80 or 90 innings for these guys, especially in tight games and you are going to have problems.

Zambrano to the Bullpen?

My gut reaction to this announcement is pretty negative. In fact, I suppose the decision is further evidence of a total lack of good sense by this organization. What you are really saying is that you would prefer Gorzelanny starting rather than Zambrano. Is this the case?

Come on, this is pushing the panic button and in a lot of ways it doesn't even coincide with the best characteristics of the players. Zambrano may have issues, but the fact is he has pitched pretty well in three of his four starts and his worst inning is usually his first. Gorzelanny, on the other hand, has pitched well in relief, so why isn't he the guy? One reason is that Piniella can never think unconventionally. Gorzellany is a lefty and everyone knows that setup men and closers can never be lefties because you can only use lefties to get lefties out even when starters are supposed to be able to get anyone out and the good ones usually do.

Lets hope this is only temporary, because if it is permanent, you are essentially trading a fifteen game winner for a ten game winner and you are taking away 200 innings for fifty in return.

The real reason the Cubs are losing right now is because, like last year, they do not score runs. If they scored runs, they would not have the bullpen problems they do now because their inexperienced relievers would have a little bit more of a cushion. What it does indicate is that Piniella and Hendry are on the bubble and they are scared. If I were the owner, I'd just pull the plug right now on these guys.

Another Stinker

Does anybody here no how to play this game? I guess not. The Cubs wasted another good start, this time from Zambrano. Everybody wants to hit a home run. After a promising start of mostly working the count the first time through the order (with the exception of Ramirez who hasn't a clue at all lately), the Cubs settled into their old ways and the result was a night of utter futility. Hard to imagine them ever scoring again. So far this season they have had maybe three competent offensive innings. Forget about scoring as a result of homers, I mean actually playing baseball, stringing together hits, etc., all that old-fashioned stuff.

Under Piniella, the Cubs have played good ball consistently for half of 2007 and most of 2008. That's been it, so you have to wonder whether the core of this team is really as good as they think it is. You know they are not as smart as they could be. In fact, they usually play dumb baseball most of the time. An example: men at first and second, one out, Zambrano attempts a bunt (don't ask why, I suppose we are playing for a tie on the road or something, it doesn't matter) he misses and Fontenot is picked off. Fontenot, playing SS to rest Theriot had earlier thrown to the wrong base on Reyes' triple.

Grabow worked his usual eighth inning magic, allowing a two-run homer to Fernando Tatis, who must be like sixty years old by now, to put the game out of reach. There is a report the Cubs gave a tryout to Braden Looper yesterday. Looper, who gave up 39 homers last year for the Brewers, should fit into the pen just fine.

There was a good interview on WSCR with Bob Brenly Tuesday morning, in which Bob is pretty outspoken in his criticism of Alfonso Soriano. I forgot to mention Soriano's actions Monday evening, when he stopped to admire his long double long enough to make what should have been a stand-up triple and close two-base hit. After the game, Soriano thought he had played a terrific game, two hits, no errors, several hops that were supposed to stop. He did just fine. Brenly characterizes Soriano as pretty much disgusting to watch and one of the most selfish players he has ever seen. I should add he is possibly one of the dumbest, but since he got a hit and actually took a base on balls tonight, Lou will just pencil him in again on Wednesday.

Same Old Story

So Piniella tweaked the lineup to no effect and the Cubs lost again despite a good outing by Randy Wells. I noted yesterday that the lineup adjustments made no sense, and indeed the outcome proved the point. Once again twelve runners left on base, against a really mediocre lefty. So far all the vaunted hitting adjustments from Jaramillo have meant nothing.

People are going to blame the bullpen - and it was pretty bad - but you cannot expect these guys to pitch every day in tie games or one-run games. Good teams usually have two or three arms in the bullpen who can consistently get outs in close games and if you use them over and over again they are going to wear out. When you have to use your marginal pitchers in close games, you are going to lose more often than not.

It is hard to figure out why Wells was pulled after six innings and 93 pitches, but go figure. After the game, Lou said he thought Wells lacked command, and Wells said he thought he had pretty good command. This will probably earn Wells a trip to the woodshed similar to Silva's a week or so back when Piniella said he had a sore shoulder and Silva said there was nothing wrong with him.

Samardzija showed remarkable efficiency today, allowing three runs while throwing only ten pitches, including a walk. A sharp contrast to the usual agony of watching him scratch away at the plate, but with the same result. Hopefully, he will sooner or later get a ticket to Iowa, which, at this stage of his career, is where he belongs.

Two Diasappointing Losses

The Cubs lost back to back one-run games this weekend to the Houston Astros, one of the worst teams in the NL. This is pretty much inexcusable, and they should have won at least one of the games, that being the Sunday game in which a terrific start by Dempster was wasted. It's easy to second-guess Piniella on letting Dempster in one batter too long, etc., but really when you don't score runs, it puts pressure on everyone. It just becomes a craps shoot sometimes and in these two games the Cubs lost.

One observation you can make is that this team doesn't score runs against decent pitching when the wind is blowing in, which, as everyone knows, is at least as often as when it blows out. The Saturday game you can chalk up to running into Oswalt when he was on his game. They got back in it that day when the Astros put in mediocre pitching to get to their closer, but once they did, it was over.

The Cubs were hooked up in a pitcher's duel on Sunday, but Rodriguez was nowhere near as dominant as Oswalt, thought the Cubs failed to add on. Hard to say why, but the all right-handed lineup they are in love with against lefties hardly ever scores runs, and the same thing has been true last year and often the year before. I think the reason is that it is not really a lineup in any sense. It is a jumble of right-handed hitters in no particular order who lack patience and just swing for the fences even when the likelihood of hitting it out is minimal.

Piniella has announced he is going to shake up the lineup against lefties this week in New York, but if the reports are true, it could be a long week. Maybe they will get lucky, since the only really dominant lefty on the Mets is Santana, but moving Byrd to the top and Baker second doesn't really provide an immense advantage. That lineup in any case loses a lot defensively, and really would it kill you to just mix in a couple of left-handed hitters just to change the opposing pitchers style a bit? It's not like the Baker and Nady are knocking the cover off the ball, is it?

Are Baseball Games Too Long?

Well, sometimes when the Cubs are in a bad streak, one is tempted to agree. There is an interesting piece in The Atlantic that argues this point to good effect, based, I think on watching the opening series of the season between the Red Sox and Yankees. These games, despite all the hype, were appalling yawners.

I'm inclined to think this is more an AL phenomenon. I watch mostly Cubs games and I haven't noticed too much degeneration there. To be sure, the days of the 90 minute 1-0 pitchers duel between Gibson and Jenkins are gone, but the Cubs' games seem to move along at a crisp pace, whereas I am just unable to watch the White Sox, and not just because of the insufferable Hawk and Steve, not to mention their radio guys.

The Cubs game yesterday moved along at a nice pace, just under 2 1/2 hours. Silva continues to be a pleasant surprise. The Cubs put together another nice inning in the seventh to put it away, good ABs, some luck, and nice situational hitting by Theriot and Fukudome before Lee put things out of reach with his home run.

A Sloppy Game

The Cubs lost today 8-6. Just a poorly played sloppy game on both sides. Is it just my imagination or are the games always tense and do weird things happen whenever Zambrano pitches? Maybe it was the wind today. Anyway, he was so-so, but his pitching isn't why the Cubs lost. The plate umpire was really bad, and at least from looking at it on TV, not just squeezing the pitchers but calling he game inconsistently as well.

The Cubs lost mainly because the bullpen failed. Marshall was a little unlucky to give up one run, but Samardzija and Grabow were, as usual, just awful. I still don't get the rotations Piniella is using with his relievers. You don't always have to use the least reliable pitchers to set up Marmol, especially when you are aware the umpire is calling a tight strike zone. I mean, these two guys are the least likely to throw strikes on a good day.

Just as a note, Colvin continues to impress. Tomorrow it is Houston in town, one of the worst teams in the major leagues. No excuse not to sweep.

A Nice Rally

Yesterday's game was quite a snooze and I really thought they were going to lose when Gray gave up back to back triples in the top of the eighth to let the Brewers take a 6-3 lead. Up until then the pitching was pretty good. Wells pitched a nice game until he began to weaken in the seventh, but Berg and Russel managed to stop the Brewers rally at one run.

But the Cubs managed surprisingly to come back with a terrific two-out rally in the bottom of the eighth against Hawkins, actually the first real major league inning of the season in terms of patience, solid ABs and clutch hitting. Theriot and Fukudome got the key hits, but it was a real team effort and nice to see them score runs other than by hitting home runs.

Earlier Soriano chalked up another error and continued his generally sloppy outfield play, but in this game it didn't matter much.

Opening Day/Soriano

Good game for opening day, solid play all around. the game pretty much demonstrates the Cubs are just a much better team than the Brewers, who really have only Braun and Fielder as first-rate players. If Doug Davis is an upgrade to their pitching staff, they are in serious trouble.

It was disappointing to see several Cubs booed in the introductions. This is bush-league stuff, but the fans here have changed a lot since I was a kid. Granted that the team is now expected to contend, but at least the boos in the past were reserved for times when a player really messed up, not the pre-game. I've certainly been critical of Soriano and Grabow, but come on, booing a rookie pitcher like Caridad?

On the subject of Soriano, I saw a couple of interesting pieces, one by Rick Miller, traces the history of the Soriano signing and his career here, along with some options. Miller's thesis is the Cubs signed him to put themselves on the map as big-money players and bump up the value of the franchise when it came on the market. More of a marketing ploy than a baseball decision, and I have to agree. Maybe that's why McCullough is working for the Black Hawks now. Somebody had to take the fall, though it should have been Hendry. I remember seeing all those billboards and stuff with Soriano's face plastered all over the place and wondering, this guy is the savior of the franchise?

They do not have many options with Soriano. Ultimately, they are going to have to try to peddle him off to the AL and eat a lot of salary. He is a real albatross if he doesn't start hitting, and that is a distinct possibility. After all, he is 34 now, has had some injuries, seems to be impossible to coach, and his bat is definitely slowing down. Carrying him another four years just completely screws up any planning you can do, so sooner or later somebody is going to have to bite the bullet.

On a more amusing note, it appears that Piniella has finally discovered what an awful outfielder Soriano really is and intends to work with him and also replace him defensively in the late innings of close games. This spectacular lack of observation is pretty astonishing, although when you factor in the idea that Soriano was a savior and Lou is in the final year of his contract, maybe not that surprising at all.

Discovering the weaknesses of players who get substantial undeserved contracts is often difficult for management to accomplish. It took 2 1/2 years to determine that Soriano never got on base and therefore was ill-suited to leading off. Now we find out that he is afraid of the wall, which is what he has been saying out loud for a while, but which most fans have observed in the past since he just stops running as soon as one foot hits the warning track. You can teach players how to play the warning track - and it is kind of weird that no one has worked with him on this before - but in Soriano's case, I just cannot see a lot of room for development in his disposition or attitude.

Soriano and Grabow Combine

to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. With Gorzelanny pitching a gem into the seventh inning, Alfonso Soriano dropped a routine chance in left field. After that, everything changed. Marshall managed to get them out of the inning tied 1-1, but Lou went to his go-to guy Grabow to clinch the loss and he comes through with a little help from Caridad.

They also had some help from the aforementioned habit of batting entirely differently when they are trying to start a rally than when they are trying to drive in runs. Today they left 13 runners. So far they look like the same old Cubs despite the much-heralded addition of a new batting coach. Old habits die hard.

Old habits also continue to reign in the management of the bullpen. Granted the Cubs have a young bullpen, but some rethinking needs to take place here. It's certainly becoming apparent that Grabow is the same pitcher he always was and maybe his performance at the end of last year was a bit of a fluke, just one of many hot streaks in a middling career. Not the guy to pitch the eighth inning in a tie game. He has average stuff and mediocre command. I'm coming round to the view that some of the stats guys were right and signing Grabow, especially with this role in mind, was a serious mistake.

Caridad has great stuff, but one pitch he can rely upon and little command right now. Pitching with the game on the line is not the way to develop this kid. After the game got away, someone must have awakened Lou in the dugout to put in Russell and end the inning.

Again, the success of the season depends on making the correct adjustment and managing the team with a little more thought and creativity.

A Solid Win

Carlos Zambrano pitched a nice game, going seven innings. He was pretty much in control all the way except for the Phillips homer in the third. Were it not for Soriano playing a routine fly into a double, he might only have given up two runs. But a good sign is he kept it together.

Today the Cubs were very efficient, leaving only one man on base. This is largely due to having gotten only five hits and a walk and hitting three home runs. But still, it's progress. Soriano, as noted above, continues to be a ticking time bomb in left field, though he made amends by hitting a solo home run to lead off the fifth and tie the score. I wonder if anyone keeps statistics on how many runs he creates and how many runs he gives up with poor defense.

Grabow made the eighth inning an adventure, but Marmol was dominant in the ninth to gain his second save.

13 Left on Base

13 LOB, that's the real story. You cannot leave that many guys on and expect to win. I guess old habits die hard. The only season in memory where the Cubs did not bat differently when they wanted to get guys on and when they needed to drive them in was 2008. Clearly they are not back to any semblance of situational hitting yet.

Another observation, similar to the other Cubs losses. Silva is cruising, 1 run, 3 hits, 71 pitches, 6 innings. Well, when you are playing Lou-ball, that's it, and it's on to the young, unreliable bullpen. Berg is OK, Cardidad wild. What I don't get is when a reliever is wild, and not getting the benefit of the doubt from the umpires, how does it inspire confidence in the pitcher to leave him in? The result ultimately is a loss.

Characteristically for a Dusty Baker team, they did their best to lose, bungling up two routine plays, but Tracy made the final out on an excuse-me swing.

A Nice Win

Well, they have finally won a game! Randy Wells pitched a nice game, getting ground balls and double plays when he needed them. I've always liked Wells. He may not have dynamite stuff, but he knows how to pitch and he gives the team a chance to win more often than not. The bullpen was solid, although I don't understand some of Piniella's moves, in particular, why he replaced Caridad with Grabow in the eighth. He dodged a bullet with that one, but only by forcing Marmol into a four-out 25-pitch save.

Not much hitting there, but I was glad to see Colvin get a shot and he rewarded the fans with a home run in his first AB. Byrd added another and that turned out to be all they needed. Baker and Hill were other additions to the lineup. Baker didn't exactly distinguish himself at the plate, but then no one seriously expects him to do so. Theriot had another bad day at the plate. He can hit, but I wonder if he isn't putting too much pressure on himself in the leadoff spot. I've always thought of him as a perfect #8 hitter and I wager over the long haul his splits there would at least equal his performance in the one or two holes.

I would be remiss, given the large number of Fukudome haters in Cubdom and the sports media, were I not to mention that Fukudome's outfield play, especially the plays in the late innings where he held Braves hitters to singles on potential doubles, had as much to do with winning the game as the fine pitching and timely hitting displayed tonight.

Is the Season Over?

Well, you would think so based on some of the call-ins to the post-game shows. But, seriously, fans, this is not the case, though the fact that people are discussing it is an indication of just how much pressure is out there to win and how much irrationality exists is the Cubs nation.

This was, however, a tough loss, a game they should have won. Who's to blame? Again, in tight, well-pitched games, the result often hinges on a mistake or an error or a failure to execute. In this case, although there were a few miscues, the Cubs played well in the field. Theriot showed a lack of range on a couple of ground balls early, but the plays didn't matter. The Braves scored on a solid double by Heyward on a mistake pitch by Dempster.

The Cubs got into a position to score mainly as a result of Jurrjens wildness. Byrd walked to start the fifth, followed by a double play ground ball from Soriano where he showed uncharacteristic hustle to beat the throw at first on a generous call by the ump. Fontenot had a nice AB to crack a single and advance Soriano to third. Soto walked to load the bases. Unfortunately the pitcher was up next, but the Cubs got a break when the Braves 1B misplayed Dempster's ground ball. Theriot put the Cubs ahead with a weak sacrifice fly that was really a pop-up. Even when he is successful, Theriot right now looks lost. He made a deliberate attempt, it seems, to hit the ball in the air, but that isn't his strength.

So the Cubs carried the lead into the eighth, but if you are going to hold anyone accountable for the loss, it has to be Piniella, who managed the game on auto-pilot. Most managers these days do, unfortunately. Dempster was cruising through six innings. Maybe I'm old-school, but one rule is never take out a pitcher who is cruising. So Marshall comes in and gets three quick outs, two against tough lefties, which makes Lou look good until he decides to put in Grabow for the eighth.

I noted yesterday that the Cubs success is going to come from making the necessary adjustments. In this case, the lesson to be learned is that Grabow is not an eighth inning guy. Your eighth inning guy, like your closer, ideally needs lights out stuff. Guzman had it last year, and Caridad looks like he might fit the bill this year. So the truth is Grabow is a journeyman pitcher who is sometimes good, but he has control problems and he was getting behind the hitters. When Prado got the double, it was time to call it quits and bring in a power arm. Piniella, though, like most managers was on automatic. Grabow is a lefty, Jones is thought (incorrectly) to be a weaker hitter from the right side and the next batter is a lefty, so the book says let him in the game.

And, that, as they say, is the ball game.

It's only one game

but it certainly was a stinker. After playing well most of the spring, the Cubs played an execrable game to open the season. Some observations:

Cubs were solid batting 2 through 5. Everyone else was useless. Fukudome had four impressive ABs, working the count, 2 for 3 with a walk. Why isn't he hitting first? Lee was patient and workman-like. Ramirez and Byrd showed pop.

Theriot looked over-matched and impatient. Seemed as if he was trying to pull everything or hit for power. No plate discipline. He hit two balls well. In the first, he hit a long fly, but it was not in danger of falling in. Later he hit a hard liner right to the shortstop that turned into a double play because of really poor base-running by Tracy. He's supposed, though, to walk and hit singles to right field.

Soriano was just plain awful. If he has been working with Jaramillo on his mechanics, it sure doesn't show. In his first two ABs, he saw three pitches and hit the ball altogether less than 80 feet. After that he was content to strike out twice on pitches well out of the strike zone.

People are going to be quick to criticize Zambrano's performance, and he surely did not have sharp stuff or good command, but how many outs does a guy have to throw to get out of a jam? After a lead-off walk, Prado hit a bloop single to right. A cheap hit, but a clean one. No one could have caught that ball. After that there was a succession of misplays. Popup behind shortstop. Theriot should have caught it, but where were Byrd and Soriano? Another popup where Byrd was evidently playing too deep or sound asleep because it was far enough out to have been a relatively easy play. Then a routine ground ball up the middle that Theriot fails to even come close to getting a glove on. Then, of course, the home run. A few more botched popups and misplays before the inning ends. And the second inning was the same thing. Zambrano makes a terrific play to cover first on a ground ball, but then throws it away. On this play, Ramirez was way out of position. Another homer and it is over for Z.

Oddly enough, though, they still made a game of it for awhile, even though there was a succession of errors, fumbles, throws to the wrong base or errant relay throws, etc. One of the sloppiest games I've seen. In the sixth, they might have had Lowe, who did not pitch well (5 runs in 6 innings), on the ropes were it not for being the victim of a really bad umpire's ruling when the Braves CF clearly dropped the ball after making a great diving attempted catch. Instead of men on first and second and no outs, the Cubs had two outs and no one on base. Soriano promptly struck out.

Just as an aside, the umpiring in major league baseball has been deteriorating for some time, reaching its pinnacle in the post-season last year. The arrogance of the umps, however, has been moving in the opposite direction. In this case - and I know the umps are supposed to rely on their own judgment and observation - the Braves stadium has an enormous jumbotron and they must have been the only guys in the stadium who didn't know that the ball had clearly been dropped.

Relief pitching:

Marshall was excellent. I still think he should be the fifth starter. Russell also did well. The Braves don't seem to hit lefties that well. Everything went to pieces when Lou seemed to give up on the game and inserted Samardzija. I have observed many times that he does not belong in the big leagues. Today he demonstrated why yet again. Walked the bases full, then Rothschild came out and evidently told him to throw strikes, whereupon the Braves hitter cleared the bases with a double. It got worse and the final was 16-5. which I think is the worst loss ever on opening day for a Cubs team.

I still expect the Cubs to win their division even though the team has some obvious weaknesses, not because they are a great team, but because the Cardinals and Brewers are not. Part of that is contingent on their making the adjustments that need to be made and that were made by Piniella in his two successful seasons here. So far, and I know it is only one game, but it is going to become fairly obvious that the Cubs are not strong defensively up the middle. Byrd is not a good CF and, even though I have always defended Theriot as at least a steady SS, it is becoming increasingly obvious that he has his limits. If Castro starts strong, they will need to consider bringing him up sooner rather than later. They also need to get Colvin in the lineup and the odd man out is Soriano. Their strongest outfield right now would be Fukudome, Colvin, and Byrd, from right to left.

The Cubs success this season is going to depend on how many games they lose early before they make adjustments.

Anyway, Tuesdy is an off-day, so lets hope Wednesday brings better news.