Rumors and Assessments

The papers and blogs are full of rumors of trades and possible trades. There are also hopes the Cubs can redefine themselves somehow and make a run, much as they did in 2007 when they had a similar record at this stage of the season, roughly a third of the way through. They certainly have the opportunity. It is unlikely the Reds will hold up and the Cardinals are having injury problems with their pitchers and are playing mediocre ball.

The real question is whether the Cubs have the talent to contend with the team they have now allowing for lineup adjustments and so on. Clearly they did in 2007 when they were able to plug in some young players and ride their pitching into the playoffs. So lets try to assess their current status and maybe suggest who should stay and who should go, who should play and who should sit.

First off, the pitching is fine. Actually, they have an abundance of good pitchers and their bullpen issues seem to have resolved themselves. They could use maybe a veteran right-handed setup man, but the question is who is available and what is the cost. They could afford to trade Lilly or Gorzelanny if they could get the right return and still contend. They should dump Grabow before he comes back and messes everything up. They should also try to ease Cashner into the rotation if they open up a spot by moving Lilly. They have an abundance of minor league pitching prospects, so they could easily include one in the right deal provided they have correctly evaluated their AA and AAA talent so they no which ones are the real prospects and which the ones with limitations.

Catching has been a disappointment both this year and last. Soto has become something of a platoon player. Hill is not a great hitter, but he gives you everything he has. This is a defensive position anyway, so they can make do with what they have. Obviously, they would be a better team if Soto returned to his 2008 hitting form, but they can afford to sit tight here. They have a good prospect in Robinson Chirinos at AA, so they have some cushion here for the future.

1B. Derrick Lee looks like he is past his prime. I know that last year he was awful through the first part of the year and came back, but I just do not see the signs here. He is in the final year of his contract and I can't see the Cubs giving him big bucks for a multiple year deal, so if he will agree to wave the no trade clause, he should be moved. He makes a lot of money, but any taker is likely to be a contender that needs a bat and they are only liable for $5 or $6 million, so from their point-of-view it is worth a shot. Besides, Lee is right-handed and the Cubs need to get more left-handed, so I don't see how he fits their plans or what should be their plans whether he rights the ship or not.

2B/SS. They are OK here, lots of depth in the minors. Castro is potentially a star player. He shouldn't bat eighth though. He has no protection there, won't get good pitches to hit, and it is going to make him more aggressive than he already is. The 2B situation is tolerable. I'd like to see Theriot play less and bat eighth where he belongs. Fontenot can hit right-handers and should play more often. Actually, I would consider moving Theriot if I could get good value in return. He started out as a heady, scrappy player who could move runners and get on base, but he has become something of a jerk. He really doesn't seem to understand the game right now, nor what he is expected to do.

3B. This season, like most lately, hinges on Ramirez getting healthy and returning to form. If you look at the stats and just really look at the games from an impressionistic perspective, this guy is the franchise offensively and has been since 2003. If he doesn't hit, they will not score runs, will not win and will not contend.

Utility IF, i.e., Tracy and Baker. Baker hits lefties, but he is a defensive liability. Tracy is no great shakes defensively, but there is more upside for him because he bats left-handed and he has been a successful everyday player before his injuries and slumps of the past two years.

OF. This is where things get tricky, and maybe where people are going to part company with my opinion. First off, Soriano. Soriano is not a baseball player and not a good outfielder. Nobody is going to win consistently as long as he plays every day. All his stats are meaningless. Every now and again he gets on a roll, but it is short-lived and he quickly returns to mediocrity. He does not hit with men on base at all. Sure, he was awful last year and looks better this year, but in truth he has not had a good year with the Cubs and he is only going to get worse. Of course, the Cubs are saddled with a huge commitment to Soriano, but if there were any way to dump this player, even if it cost $10 million per year for the rest of his remaining contract, he should go. If they keep him, he should be platooned.

Byrd has been a pleasant surprise to me. I had him down as a journeyman player who would hit .280 or so, but he has been better than that so far. He hustles and is a fan favorite, so maybe this contract will work out. Not a lot of upside here, though. What you are getting now is the best you are likely to see. He is hitting better this year than through his career against lefties and a little worse against righties, but it is too early to tell if this is a significant trend. One bad rap is that he is not a patient hitter.

Fukudome is another guy that people will have differences with me about. Fukudome is a great outfielder and a great right-fielder. This is a big consideration at Wrigley Field because RF is the most difficult OF position to play there and the adventures of Colvin and Nady in the last week give ample evidence of this. Fans also don't appreciate his skills as a hitter. Even though he has had terrible streaks and has slumped very badly late in the year, he still gets on base and makes pitchers work. I wish he could overcome these flaws, but I would still bat him leadoff and play him almost every day. He is a thinking and fundamentally sound player who pays attention to the game all the time, which is something most Cubs do not do, as was in evidence Tuesday night.

Tyler Colvin is a potential star. He should be playing a lot more, though at the expense of Soriano and Byrd if possible. I also think they should be breaking him in playing CF and LF more that RF, at least at Wrigley Field.

Xavier Nady. I must confess I thought he was a decent investment, but I was wrong. He has no position right now, and I'm not sure he ever had one other than DH. If somebody wants this guy, trade him right away.

What do the Cubs need to contend now and next year? They need a new manager and GM for one thing. Their scouts and coaches and minor league administrators probably have a better evaluation than even informed fans, but it looks like they are strong in their minor league affiliates in pitching, catching, and middle infielders. Josh Vitters was supposed to be the heir apparent at 3B, but he seems to be overmatched at AA and to lack plate discipline. They don't seem to have good prospects at either of the corner infield positions. So I would suppose left-handed or switch hitting prospects at 1B or 3B would be their principal need. They seem to have some outfielders coming along, but again if they could get a really good prospect who hit left-handed and played CF, they would be foolish to pass.

Now obviously if they were able to pick up a proven star like Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez, their lineup would be instantly transformed. But this is pretty unlikely as the Red Sox still have a shot and the Padres are unexpectedly in contention as well.

Tonight's game, by the way, was an absolute disaster. More about it later, but they have put on a clinic lately on how to screw up nearly every aspect of the game.