The Garza Trade

There are mixed reviews of the Garza trade and I have to admit it is pretty hard to assess a trade of prospects for what amounts to a single veteran. Short term it improves the Cubs. Long term is problematic and impossible to assess now for obvious reasons, though at first glance it looks as if the Cubs overpaid. Garza is certainly a pretty good pitcher who projects to be the #2 starter behind Zambrano. He's no Cliff Lee, though, even though he is still young enough to see his best years ahead of him.

The Cubs gave up a lot, however, in Lee and Archer. I'm not so much bothered by the others. Fuld is a good defensive outfielder, but he is the sort of player who never gets much of a chance in the Cubs scheme of things, a little like Andres Torres who ended up playing CF for the Giants in the World Series. But realistically, he, just as Torres, would have spent his career playing in AAA. Chirinos has potential, but he is blocked by both Soto and Castillo, so you had to suppose he was trade-bait after his breakout minor league season last year. The same goes for Guyer who projects as a fourth outfielder despite his AA numbers.

But Lee looked like the real deal even though he is at least a year and possibly two years away, and Archer also has looked like a potentially dominant pitcher. The Cubs evidently do not value any of these players so highly as Tampa does, or the Cubs don't recognize their real situation as well as Tampa. The Rays have lost quite of few of their star players, they still have a solid starting staff, and they know they are not going to be able to challenge the Red Sox or the Yankees this year no matter what they do. If any one of the prospects the Cubs have traded delivers a year or two down the road when the Rays are in a position to contend again - and it is likely one or more will - they have got the better of the deal.

The Cubs, on the other hand, have made a deal that makes sense from only two points-of-view, one of which, the first, makes sense only to people as seriously deluded as the Cubs brass who think Marlon Byrd is a marque player and that fans are actually going to hop on a plane to Arizona to see the highest paid reserve outfielder tune up for another season.

First off, this is a deal you make when you think you can win now, and I don't mean contend now against deeply flawed and mediocre teams in a weak division. I mean actually win, as in getting beyond the first round of the playoffs and at least winning the NL championship or having a shot at it. This is the deal that puts you over the top. Now I think the Cubs will contend for the Central Division title and could easily win it and I thought that even before this trade, but I don't think anybody seriously thinks this is a good team, not a really good team anyway.

Of course, the second viewpoint, and probably the real operating factor here, is that it makes sense for a GM in survival mode, and we all know how Hendry feels about survival. You go through an off-season when you essentially offer contracts to mopes like Hill and Baker, sign a first basemen who batted under .200, and pick up Kerry Wood at a bargain rate almost as an act of God while your division rivals and the arch-rival White Sox go crazy with changes. You get to act like you knew all along that all the team needed was a first basemen, a veteran reliever, and a veteran starter.

OK, mission accomplished. The Cubs are a lock on winning a few more games than they lose. If they win 85 in their division, they have a good shot, and the trade moves them into that range. Worst case scenario, you just miss, but you're safe for another year. So much for the big plans of nurturing your own talent and building that winning tradition from within.