What’s Wrong with the Cubs Lineup?

Everyone else is plotting out the Cubs everyday lineup and batting order, so I suppose I should get into the act as well.

Based on spring training so far, this looks like Quade’s preferred batting order, at least against right-handers.

Fukudome, RF

Castro, SS

Byrd, CF

Ramirez, 3B

Pena, 1B

Soriano, LF

Soto, C

DeWitt, 2b

Pitcher

I have no problem with the first two slots. Fukudome gets on base, Castro continues to impress. The problems begin with the middle of the order. I don’t care how hot Byrd is in spring training, he is not a #3 hitter. He isn’t patient enough and he doesn’t hit for power. Fans should remember that Milton Bradley batted .500 in spring training. The same goes for Soriano. Also Byrd did not hit right-handers very well last season.

Pena should bat third. He does not hit for average, but he is patient and he will get pitches to hit with men on base if Ramirez returns to form. He also provides a nice left-right-left-right alternation at the top of the order. Ramirez is the obvious choice for clean-up, but Soto should bat fifth. Soto is patient and hits for average and power and the Cubs need to bat him higher in the order to maximize his production.

Byrd, when he is in the lineup, should hit sixth and Soriano should hit seventh. Quade’s lineup against righties is actually short a left-handed bat, which, as the team is currently configured, should be Colvin. I’ve argued previously that Byrd and Soriano are platoon players at this stage of their careers.

The Cubs need to work out some sort of platoon system with Colvin to give him opportunities and to sit one or the other of the Soriano/Byrd combo on a regular basis, especially against the better right-handed pitchers. In that case, I’d like to see Colvin bat sixth and whoever else is in the lineup seventh. DeWitt is an obvious choice for eighth.

The Cubs have more options against left-handers simply because they are still a predominantly right-handed hitting team and their three most consistent all-around hitters (Ramirez, Castro, and Soto) are right-handed. It looks line they are thinking of a platoon of Baker and DeWitt at second base, with Baker batting leadoff.

I’m not a big fan of this idea. I must confess I am not a big fan of Baker or his type of player in general, but maybe that is just a prejudice on my part. The Cubs may be reading a little more into last year’s numbers than they merit. Granted he was terrific against lefties, but, to a certain extent, these numbers look great because he was so awful against righties. His career numbers against lefties are good, but not that good. Plus the guy doesn’t walk much and he strikes out a lot.

Cubs management and Cubs fans historically have not set much store on building a balanced lineup that scores runs, but it makes a big difference. They tend to look at and acquire players in isolation, separate from their impact on the lineup and the team as a whole. What seems to be the preferred lineup this season will score runs against left-handers, but it has serious flaws against righties that could sink their chances unless they are flexible enough to make the necessary changes right away.

Even the early days of spring training support my thesis. The Cubs are not scoring runs, and when they have had an outburst from the regulars, it has been against left-handed pitching.