The Cubs just finished up the first two home series against arguably the two worst teams in the National League even up at 3-3. They should certainly have gone 4-2 against these teams, and probably 5-1. Not a cause for panic, but still a disturbing sign.
Pitching has not been the problem so much as scoring runs, which has been the problem perennially for this franchise. The Cubs achieved four quality starts from their five starters, the only bad outings being from their supposed ace Ryan Dempster.
Unfortunately, the Cubs have lost their four and five starters, Wells and Cashner, who were actually the most impressive of the starting rotation in its first cycle, to what one hopes are minor injuries, for at least one month. In their absence, the Cubs are likely to bring up Casey Coleman to become the fourth starter and to use James Russell as a spot starter, at least through the month of April when there are still a few off-days to lessen the blow.
The back end of the Cubs bullpen is outstanding and really held its own but for one lapse by Carlos Marmol in the final game of the Pirates series. What Mike Quade is finding out, though, is the unfortunate truth that he cannot use Marshall, Wood, and Marmol in tandem every day, and that once he gets past them, there isn't a whole lot he can count on.
Mateo and Russell will get you some outs, though you wish they were more consistent. Grabow and Samardzija are awful, especially Samardzija. I defy anyone to provide a logical reason this guy is "pitching" in the major leagues and why he was not waived at the end of spring training. And don't tell me you would risk losing him. Actually, having him claimed would be doing the Cubs a favor, but no one wants him at his salary, so how come he is still here? You would hope that sooner rather than later they would pull the plug on Samardzija.
Lets not kid ourselves about the reason that this is a .500 team so far against the weakest opponents you could possibly imagine. I hate to seem like a broken record, but so far the season has exposed the inherent weaknesses of this lineup and of the decisions the Cubs have usually made.
Whether these decisions are the result of simple inattention or the inability to read and interpret basic statistics, who knows? So much of the Cubs strategy and deployment of personnel looks and feels like a holdover from previous seasons. I have to admit this was one of my worst fears when they chose Quade to be the manager. Too much of a continuation of the old tradition, not exactly a fresh set of eyes or a fresh approach.
If you don't want to accept this premise, I urge you to think of another team that would platoon two left-handed hitters in right field when there are two right-handed hitters playing center and left who do not hit right-handed pitching consistently. And what other team would "platoon" two right-handed hitters at second base?
And, come to think of it, what team would profess to be searching for a lead off hitter when their obvious choice, Kosuke Fukudome, has a .528 OBP so far and, given his performance in three previous seasons, should be called "Mr. April"? Last night in Milwaukee, Tyler Colvin looked lost against the lefty Wolff, and he has only two hits all year. The Baker platoon looked good, though I still doubt that he should be leading off.
The other realization I took away from the first two series, and which was confirmed last night in Milwaukee, is just how bad the Cubs outfield is defensively, with the exception of right field. It is not just the errors and misjudged balls by Soriano, although they contributed heavily to the Wednesday loss and he continued the trend by goofing up a little flare last night. These guys in center and left field have limited range. It is hard to judge outfield play on TV, but it just seemed to me that the Pirates and Diamondbacks outfielders, with the exception of right field, were consistently running down drives in the alleys when the Cubs were letting them drop for extra bases.
This is going to be a problem for the Cubs and Mike Quade as the season progresses and another reason to give Colvin playing time in left and occasionally center field until better alternatives become available. The Cubs match up a lot better defensively against the Brewers, which was also evident last night. Ryan Braun is arguably in his own fashion as much of a liability as Soriano and the rest of their guys aren't a whole lot better, so look for hits to fall this weekend like raindrops at Miller Field.
For the future, or actually for the month of April, the Cubs play against a pretty weak schedule. They are fortunate this is so. Without Wells and Cashner, they are going to need long outings from the top three to prevent a real collapse of the bullpen. If they come out of this stretch with their rotation back in order playing .500 ball, they can stay in contention.
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