It’s that time of year again in Cubland when fans, hopelessly disenchanted with the teams dwindling prospects, turn their thoughts to next year. They also turn their thoughts to getting rid of their most overpaid and under-performing athletes in the forlorn hope of rebuilding.

I’ve actually read a bunch of these rants and analyses, and so far I haven’t seen many that make a lot of sense. The Cubs management is supposed to be planning their annual pre-trade deadline summit this week, or maybe they have already had it.

Given their performance up to now, one may be permitted doubts as to whether they will achieve anything resembling a more rational assessment than the pundits, professional or amateur, have done. There is no doubt the team is in need of a serious makeover, but one wonders if Hendry, Quade, and company are the ones to do it.

The first thing you need to do in terms of this analysis is to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the team and its farm system. The second thing you need to do is to figure out which of the current players has value in the deadline market.

Readers will probably find reason to disagree with a number of my assessments, but at least they will serve as a catalyst for some more constructive initiatives than trade everybody but Castro and start all over.

At the start of the season, I wrote that the Cubs looked to me like a seriously flawed team that could nevertheless contend in a weak division if a couple of breaks went their way. I haven’t changed that opinion, at least insofar as the division is concerned. Obviously, the breaks have not gone their way and they have not played well enough to hang around long enough to be a serious factor in the race so far.

Most everyone thinks the Cubs pitching stinks, but I want to stake out a minority position and say that it is really impossible to assess the staff so far and that it is not nearly so bad as the stats make it look.

The reason for this is an obvious one. They lost their fourth and fifth starters in the first week of the season. They were not able to bring up young pitchers well enough along in their development to fill in, nor were they able to acquire veteran arms to tide them over. This put a lot of pressure on the bullpen, especially middle relief, so they were never able to compete in the so-called bullpen games.

The three veteran starters were also compromised, as Quade found it necessary to stretch them out early in the season even when it was obvious they didn’t have their best stuff on a given night.

Personally, I would not give up on this staff, at least not in mid-season when you are really not going to get good value. The Cubs, like any seller, are going to be looking for top notch, can’t miss prospects in return, the kind of players they traded for Garza, maybe even better. They are not going to get them.

The nucleus of this staff is not that bad, so why give away starters who on any kind of decent team would have much better records? The only possible justification is salary dumping, but that’s just not something the Cubs can afford to do. The Cubs, like it or not, are a major market team. Major market teams don’t dump salary, at least not for the sake of dumping salary.

Besides the buyers of the baseball world, the contenders, are all looking for rentals right now and they are determined not to overpay. Thanks to the largesse of Jim Hendry, the Cubs don’t have any rentals, at least among their pitchers. Maybe Garza fits this bill, but they just traded away half their farm system to get him, and they are not likely to trade him to get back to square one, are they?

Maybe Kerry Wood among the relievers, but I do not look for Hendry to actively market Wood given the circumstances of his signing, among other things. Like nearly everyone else, Wood also appears to have a no-trade clause in his contact.

Of the rest, the one I would consider trading is Ryan Dempster. Dempster is showing signs of an aging arm, and just from observing the trajectory of his career, I would not put my money on him being a top of the line starter next season. Unfortunately, Dempster has a player’s option for $14M or so that vests if he is traded, so good luck with that.

None of what I have said above means the Cubs don’t need pitching. I think the Cubs themselves thought they had a bunch of arms at AA and AAA before the season began, but this has proved to be an illusion.

So many of their prospects, Chris Carpenter, for example, and Jeff Samardzija before him, have turned out to be middle relievers or set-up men. Besides Coleman, who may yet turn out to be a useful back of the rotation starter or swing man, the Cubs look like they have only two pitching prospects at AA or above: Whitenack, who is hurt and has had Tommy John surgery, and McNutt.

That’s slim pickings, so one of their needs has to be starters who are legitimate prospects at AA or better. Assuming Cashner comes back strong, they are still going to have to replace Dempster in the rotation, and probably sooner than they are counting on doing. Even if Cashner has completely recovered, they may have to dip into the free agent market in the off-season.

As for the rest of the farm system, to my mind, the Cubs have three legitimate prospects one year or less away from the majors: Ryan Flaherty (3B), Brett Jackson (OF), and Wellington Castillo (C). In addition, the Cubs have a potentially great player in Starlin Castro and a pretty good middle-infielder in Darwin Barney.

These are the guys they are likely to build around for the future. I had once thought that Tyler Colvin showed enough promise to play left field and hit home runs even if he struck out too much and lacked plate discipline. Now I don’t think you can count on him, which means another need is going to be young outfielders, preferably left-handed hitting outfielders who can catch and throw and get on base.

For many years, the Cubs offense has been built in large measure around Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez hit for power, showed adequate patience, drove in runs, etc.

Ramirez is clearly not the player he once was, although he is only 33. He seems to have changed his style of hitting completely, whether the result of age or accumulated injuries. He is just not cutting it, whatever the reason, and this is hurting the Cubs more than anything else on offense, especially as the three batters in front of him, Fukudome, Barney, and Castro are having good years.

Ramirez is in the last year of his contract and the Cubs have a team option for next year. Even though Ramirez has picked it up lately, one doubts the Cubs will pick up his option. This makes him a prime candidate for a trade, and he would help a good team down the stretch. The Cubs are unlikely to want his services next year and they are right to let him go. Ramirez, however, has let it be known he will not waive his no-trade option, so this effectively ties their hands.

The other expensive free agents in their contract years, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena, have little value on the trade market. They are also having pretty good years, especially Fukudome.

Fukudome is overpaid, but he is a pretty good player, and given the Cubs' outfield situation, I would not be surprised if the Cubs tried to sign him for another two years at a reduced cost, nor would I disapprove of that move. The Cubs don’t have a lot of complete and intelligent players, and they are not in a position to give players like that away.

Pena counts as another player in the same category. He’s not a great player, but he fills a need that on a good team is worth having filled. I’m not one of those who support the idea of signing Albert Pujols for eight years. Prince Fielder is a better proposition, but even there, though you can count on more good years from Fielder, you also have to consider his body type as a factor in offering a long-term deal.

I would not be surprised if the Cubs backed off on both these guys and went after a first base prospect in a trade if they do not re-sign Pena. Neither Fielder or Pujols by themselves are going to make this team an instant contender. Pena is likely to want a multi-year deal if he continues to perform reasonably well, so that is going to count heavily in assessing the Cubs options.

So who is left that can bring help? Obviously, Alfonso Soriano is trade bait, though nobody wants him. On general principle, the Cubs should get rid of him to anyone who wants him. They are on the hook for three more years at $18M.

Nobody wants that, especially when you get a one-dimensional player who cannot catch, can no longer run, etc. Wishful thinking is some AL team would pick him up for the stretch, and if someone bites, Hendry should not worry about the details.

On a serious level, though, to my mind the only guys the Cubs have who might bring something in return are Marlon Byrd, Jeff Baker, and Geovanny Soto. The Cubs and a lot of other teams overvalue each of these players, and each is a pretty cheap short-term solution for someone.

John Grabow is another guy they might want to move, not that he will bring a big return, but left-handed relievers are always overvalued at the trade deadline, even overpaid ones who are not especially effective against left-handed hitters. But given his performance lately and really all through his career with the Cubs, he might just be a candidate for unconditional release if they cannot find a taker. Right now, he is the guy you use to mop up when you are behind 8-0 in the fourth inning.

For the top three, here’s my reasoning. Marlon Byrd is a pretty expensive contract for a guy who never takes a pitch, drives in runs, or hits for power. I know he hustles and all that, but he had 11 RBI in two months regular play batting behind Fukudome and Castro and Barney. He is not going to be the center-fielder on the team you are building toward anyway.

If the Cubs are confident in the abilities of Brett Jackson, then they should move Byrd now, save next year’s salary, and move on. Assuming he has recovered from his horrific injury, he’s worth more now than he ever will be to a team that is looking for a right-handed bat.

Jeff Baker falls into somewhat the same category as Byrd, though he is more a utility type and so will not bring the same return. Baker is having a good year. He is hitting righties better than he has in the past. However, his major value is as a right-handed hitter against left-handed pitching. He is slow and a defensive liability in most all of the positions he plays. Besides, the Cubs are loaded with infield talent in the minors.

Soto is a more difficult case. I was once willing to throw out his awful 2009 season, especially when he had quite a good year in 2010 after he came back from injuries that limited his play early that year. This year, though, he seems, like Ramirez, to have totally changed his approach. Soto used to walk a lot and have a high OBP. This year he is not taking pitches, nor is he hitting for power or average. You’d like to think he will snap out of his funk, but it makes you wonder.

Wellington Castillo, the Cubs principal catching prospect, is putting up good numbers at Iowa after injuries slowed his start at the beginning of the season. He tore up the Cactus League this spring, though he showed very little in limited major league play when Soto was on the DL. What you do with Soto depends a lot on the team’s judgment of Castillo’s potential and his readiness to step in to the starting job.

If the Cubs think they have a winner in Castillo, trading Soto is the kind of move they could make that would bring bigger returns.

A version of this article has also been posted at Bleacher Report.