With the same preface as my evaluation of pitching in Part
One, here is a shot at evaluating current personnel and moving forward toward
next year. Just a warning, the
outlook is not good, or at least not so good as the Cubs management may think.
This pessimism must be contrasted with the notion that more
surprising recoveries have happened in the past. The Diamondbacks this season, for example. Also, the Cubs play in one of the
weakest division in all of baseball.
The Cardinals will likely return the same lineup and pitching as they
fielded this season. The Brewers,
despite their performance thus far, are not a genuinely good team. They have not won a series from a team
with a winning record since April or something. They will very likely lose both Prince Fielder and K-Rod,
and they will very likely be eliminated in short order by the Phillies when
they meet in the post-season if the Cardinals don’t knock them out first.
Catcher
Geovanny Soto has
been really bad this season, offensively and defensively. He calls a predictable game, has
indifferent mechanics, doesn’t thwart a good running game. Fundamentally, he is a weak player. He doesn’t seem to manage his pitchers
very well. I am constantly
noticing the little plays he does not make, backing up first and third base,
etc. Offensively, he had an
off-year after a pretty good year in 2010. Strikeouts are up, walks are down, average is down.
I was hoping to get a look at Wellington Castillo in the
September call-up, but a hamstring injury made him unavailable. The Cubs did call up AA catcher Steve
Clevenger, who seems to be able to hit, after the AA post-season is done, but
Quade did not give him much of a look.
Catcher is definitely a spot where the Cubs, who are
probably thinking they are OK, need a serious upgrade. If they are going with youth – and I
cannot see they have much choice – they should trade Soto while he is still a
marketable commodity and let Castillo and Clevenger contend for the spot.
Koyie Hill is an OK backup who knows how to play even though
he seems to lack the talent to actually play competitively. Maybe they should offer him a coaching
spot. It would be a sign of
serious desperation to bring him back as a backup.
First Base
Carlos Pena has
had what has become a typical Carlos Pena year, that is, he hit for a low
batting average, but had an OBP about 120 points higher because he is a patient
hitter, so he walks a lot He hit
close to 30 HRs. This year his RBI
were down. For my money, that is
inexcusable. Batters ahead of him
in the lineup are getting on base.
He is not coming through. His
batting average with men in scoring position was lower even that Marlon
Byrd’s. Pena’s walks are a little
deceptive. Because he bats in
front of the phenomenally unproductive trio of Byrd, Soriano, and Soto,
right-handers are often pitching around him, knowing the players behind him are
not going to drive him home. Defensively,
Pena is a plus.
You could possibly live with Pena at first for another year,
but certainly not two, which is what he will want to get in terms of a
contract. If you think an OPS in
the high 700s or low 800s is OK for a first baseman, then you’ll stick with
him. This is a position where the
Cubs also need an upgrade.
Fans are agog with the idea of bringing in either Pujols or
Fielder as a free agent. These
guys are really good. I would not
be all that keen on giving Pujols a long-term deal considering his age. Also, I cannot see the Cardinals
letting him walk. Fielder might be
worth a shot. He’s a lot
younger. Of course, he is not much
of defensive player and he does
not look like the kind of guy who will have a long productive career. If the Brewers advance beyond the NLCS,
I can’t see them letting Fielder go cheap. Anybody who gets him will overpay, so the question is
whether getting him is going to put you over the top. Is Fielder the one guy who brings it all together? For the Cubs, neither Pujols or Fielder
does this for the roster. The Cubs
right now are a bad team in many ways.
The addition of a single superstar will not make the difference. Lets face it, the Cardinals, though
perennial contenders, were losing games and playing crappy baseball with Pujols
on the roster before they backed into the playoffs, and the Brewers, before
they improved their pitching, were a mediocre team with both Fielder and Braun
on the roster.
In-house, the Cubs have professional minor league star Bryan
LaHair. I liked what I saw this
September even though he was playing out of position. Is he the reincarnation of Micah Hoffpauir
or Casey McGehee? The Cubs are so
loathe to expose their minor league talent that you can never be certain. One thing I cannot figure out is why
Carlos Pena played every day when you knew everything you needed to know about
him. Letting him build up his
numbers also just made him more expensive if you were thinking about extending
his contract.
Second Base
I’m OK with Darwin
Barney, at least for the short term.
I’d like to see him take more pitches, but he is at least as good as
Ryan Theriot with a lot more upside.
You cannot remake an entire team, much as you would like to do so. Besides, Jim Hendry really liked second
basemen, so the team now has Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker as backups, as well as
Ryan Flaherty and D.J.LeMahieu waiting in the wings. They ought to think about trading one or both of their
veteran backups, especially the utterly useless and over-rated Baker. DeWitt can also play third base (not,
despite Quade’s beliefs, left field), and he bats left-handed, so he could be
back as a bench player.
Third Base
Aramis Ramirez had a solid year after an awful start. The Cubs have an option on him for $16M
and he has a player option to refuse.
The Cubs are likely to be in a bind here as both Ramirez and his agent
have indicated he wants a multiple year deal, believes the Cubs are in
rebuilding mode, and is likely to test the market.
I’m always of two minds on the Ramirez question, largely
because the Cubs have no replacement.
They should probably offer to pick up his option knowing he will
refuse. This gets them a draft
pick. Now that they have a GM in
Theo Epstein, he might negotiate a quick two or three year deal for around $12M
per year. Ramirez has sent signals
he would take the deal.
If they don’t get it done, it looks like the Cubs will be
shopping for a new third baseman.
The free agent market is pretty lean here, so unless there is a hidden
gem in the minors, it looks like a trade is the only option here.
Stay tuned for Part Three, the Outfield. That’s where things look really grim.
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