Maybe it is just me or my impression, but has anyone else noticed that particularly on the last day of a homestand, especially an afternoon game, these guys just go up there and make quick outs. Like they have one foot on the tarmac. Sure, Lynn pitched a great game for the Cardinals, but the Cubs hitters helped a lot.
I watched yesterday's performance, the highlight of which, except for LaHair's 4th HR, was Seinfeld's Jason Alexander singing the 7th inning stretch. Unfortunately, his visit with Bob and Len was exceedingly brief as the Cubs made three quick outs on maybe four or five pitches.
Seriously, the problem with this team for the past four years has been hitting, not pitching. Last year the pitching broke down completely when their fourth and fifth starters were hurt the first week of the season, but, although this needed attention and got some in an odd way from Epstein & co., I still contend it is difficult to evaluate pitching on a team that is always tied or behind early in the game.
These guys do not score runs. They do not score runs because they do not get on base. They do not get on base because they are impatient at the plate and fail to walk or work the count to their advantage. Another factor is they have been and still are overwhelming right-handed. Epstein remarked on this factor in the pre-season, and, of course, the team's best prospects, Rizzo and Jackson, are left-handed hitters, but this aspect of the Cubs game is unlikely to change until their arrival.
Another factor in the failure to produce runs has been the batting order. For quite a while, actually until the last week, LaHair, so far the best hitter, was buried in the seventh spot. Another factor has been Starlin Castro. He may be the #3 hitter of the future, but he isn't now.
Castro seems to be an entirely different hitter with men on base, really anxious and antsy, which is all the more surprising since LaHair is batting behind him and one would expect right-handed pitchers, at least, to give Castro something to hit. The problem is that in key situations, Castro is not giving pitchers much of a chance to make a mistake.
I suppose their are two schools of thought on exposing Castro to the #3 slot, one being that this team is not going anywhere anyway, so why not let him get the pressure experience, the other being that constant exposure to failure is going to sap his confidence in these situations. I'm not sure where I land on this issue, though, if you do not project him as the #3 on the team you are building, it makes little sense to bat him there now.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Another Walk-Off Win
The Cubs pulled out another one yesterday, this time in 10 innings. Jeff Samardzija pitched very well. He seemed to be back on track. The same cannot be said for Carlos Marmol, who surrendered the lead after being summoned from the bullpen in the eighth inning.
Some of Sveum's bullpen decisions are a little eccentric. I know he has limited options, but from the 7th on, things always get sticky. I sometimes wonder if some of the troubles aren't due to Soto. Late in the game, Cubs pitchers just seem to start nibbling and Soto just seems to set up all over the place as a receiver. He calls a very nervous game from there out. Look, as Sweet Lou would say, these guys have no idea where the ball is going to go, so maybe he should just sit in the middle and hope for the best.
Samardzija suddenly lost the strike zone in the 7th and had to be removed with two out and two on. Camp managed to get the last out. After that, until the 10th inning, the bullpen seemed to lose sight of home plate, with the exception of Marmol, who found it in time to serve up the two-run homer that nearly lost the game.
Dolis, who had pitched two innings in relief on Monday with nail-biting efficiency, continued to flirt with disaster on Tuesday. The same with the new guy, Bowden, who looked as if he had no idea when to let go of the ball and where to do so in his unorthodox delivery. He was lucky to escape the ninth without giving up a run.
Thanks to Bryan LaHair, who was allowed a rare plate appearance against a left-handed pitcher and promptly deposited the first pitch into the bleachers in left-center, the Cubs managed to tie the game. James Russell, who has become the only reliable arm out of the bullpen and who is rarely used because he is afflicted with the disease of left-handedness and therefore can only be trusted to pitch to lefties most of the time, shut the door on the Cardinals in the top of the 10th.
That set the stage for a nice rally. Campana sure is fast and a disrupting influence on the bases. If this kid could only learn how to take pitches, work the count, and hit more ground balls, he could become a useful player. He is hot now, though, and he pretty much gets into scoring position automatically when he does get on. He was the beneficiary of a close call on his steal of second base that wound up with the Cards manager getting tossed.
I thought when they intentionally walked LaHair, the Cards might escape, but Soriano delivered an uncharacteristically thoughtful AB. He hit a smash directly at 2B Tyler Greene on a 3-2 pitch that must have terrified the infielder as he chose to play it off to the side and wound up getting eaten up, the ball ricocheting over his shoulder for a single that allowed the winning run to score.
Some of Sveum's bullpen decisions are a little eccentric. I know he has limited options, but from the 7th on, things always get sticky. I sometimes wonder if some of the troubles aren't due to Soto. Late in the game, Cubs pitchers just seem to start nibbling and Soto just seems to set up all over the place as a receiver. He calls a very nervous game from there out. Look, as Sweet Lou would say, these guys have no idea where the ball is going to go, so maybe he should just sit in the middle and hope for the best.
Samardzija suddenly lost the strike zone in the 7th and had to be removed with two out and two on. Camp managed to get the last out. After that, until the 10th inning, the bullpen seemed to lose sight of home plate, with the exception of Marmol, who found it in time to serve up the two-run homer that nearly lost the game.
Dolis, who had pitched two innings in relief on Monday with nail-biting efficiency, continued to flirt with disaster on Tuesday. The same with the new guy, Bowden, who looked as if he had no idea when to let go of the ball and where to do so in his unorthodox delivery. He was lucky to escape the ninth without giving up a run.
Thanks to Bryan LaHair, who was allowed a rare plate appearance against a left-handed pitcher and promptly deposited the first pitch into the bleachers in left-center, the Cubs managed to tie the game. James Russell, who has become the only reliable arm out of the bullpen and who is rarely used because he is afflicted with the disease of left-handedness and therefore can only be trusted to pitch to lefties most of the time, shut the door on the Cardinals in the top of the 10th.
That set the stage for a nice rally. Campana sure is fast and a disrupting influence on the bases. If this kid could only learn how to take pitches, work the count, and hit more ground balls, he could become a useful player. He is hot now, though, and he pretty much gets into scoring position automatically when he does get on. He was the beneficiary of a close call on his steal of second base that wound up with the Cards manager getting tossed.
I thought when they intentionally walked LaHair, the Cards might escape, but Soriano delivered an uncharacteristically thoughtful AB. He hit a smash directly at 2B Tyler Greene on a 3-2 pitch that must have terrified the infielder as he chose to play it off to the side and wound up getting eaten up, the ball ricocheting over his shoulder for a single that allowed the winning run to score.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
A Good Win Last Night
I think it is too early to say whether this win could prove a turning point. I mean, the last of the 9th was a great inning in what otherwise might have been another frustrating loss.
First for the good bits. Joe Mather gets the credit for a nice game-winning hit, but the inning was set up by Bryan LaHair's wonderful AB where he fouled off six two-strike pitches and saw 12 before he walked. Relief pitchers like Motte are not used to throwing that many pitches in an inning.
Really relief pitchers are not actually good pitchers in general. They have one or maybe two plus pitches and if they don't get quick outs, they usually get frustrated and tired, which is what happened to Motte last night. The lesson for the Cubs is one we have preached more than once. Good things happen when you work the count.
Lost in the late inning heroics is yet another lineup in which Dale Sveum seemed to channel the demonic ghost of Mike Quade. How many times have we seen this lineup of doom. Baker at 1st, Soriano batting cleanup, etc. At least the front office had made a move to break up the K brothers (Soriano, Soto, Byrd) that right-handed trio of automatic outs over the weekend.
Anyway, that platoon lineup is guaranteed to produce few if any runs and to allow the opposing pitcher to go deep into the game throwing relatively few pitches. Sveum vowed at the beginning of the year that there would be no idiotic platoons. Of course, all we have seen thus far from Sveum is more idiotic platoons. For some reason, the Cubs failed to notice that lefties were batting over .500 against the Cardinals starter Garcia, so we loaded up with righties with the exception of David DeJesus, who genuinely does not hit lefties all that well these days.
Excuse the rant, but another thing I don't get is that managers always seem to think that left-handed batters have to prove they can hit left-handed pitching before they become everyday players, whereas right-handed batters are subject to no such restrictions. Is it because many mangers when they played the game hit right-handed? Is it because managers by and large are baseball lifers and, by definition, are presumed to be dumb?
Who knows? Anyway, just a tip here, the percentages work both ways, guys, so wise up. In the case of left-handed hitters, too often, because of the built-in prejudice that seems to be at the heart of the baseball lifers perceptions of reality, young players frequently never get the chance to demonstrate any versatility on this score. I would say that LaHair should get a shot at playing every day. His major league numbers against lefties are not all that great, but the statistical sample is insignificant. I couldn't find any splits for LaHair's minor league career, but he seems to have played every day and his numbers were pretty impressive.
Just for information, the other two Cubs regular left-handed hitters are David DeJesus and Ian Stewart. Stewart's numbers are not that great in terms of average or home runs in general, but he seems to perform equally well (or badly) against any pitching. DeJesus was a rather balanced hitter statistically throughout his career, but over the last three seasons his numbers have declined precipitously against left-handers, so you might make a good case for platooning him should you be able to find an adequate right-handed hitter to put in right-field who could catch.
That player is probably Reed Johnson, who throughout his career has been a platoon-type player even though teams have not always employed him as such. Johnson, however, was an odd signing for the Cubs as he is getting pretty long in the tooth and obviously does not figure in the team's long term plans.
First for the good bits. Joe Mather gets the credit for a nice game-winning hit, but the inning was set up by Bryan LaHair's wonderful AB where he fouled off six two-strike pitches and saw 12 before he walked. Relief pitchers like Motte are not used to throwing that many pitches in an inning.
Really relief pitchers are not actually good pitchers in general. They have one or maybe two plus pitches and if they don't get quick outs, they usually get frustrated and tired, which is what happened to Motte last night. The lesson for the Cubs is one we have preached more than once. Good things happen when you work the count.
Lost in the late inning heroics is yet another lineup in which Dale Sveum seemed to channel the demonic ghost of Mike Quade. How many times have we seen this lineup of doom. Baker at 1st, Soriano batting cleanup, etc. At least the front office had made a move to break up the K brothers (Soriano, Soto, Byrd) that right-handed trio of automatic outs over the weekend.
Anyway, that platoon lineup is guaranteed to produce few if any runs and to allow the opposing pitcher to go deep into the game throwing relatively few pitches. Sveum vowed at the beginning of the year that there would be no idiotic platoons. Of course, all we have seen thus far from Sveum is more idiotic platoons. For some reason, the Cubs failed to notice that lefties were batting over .500 against the Cardinals starter Garcia, so we loaded up with righties with the exception of David DeJesus, who genuinely does not hit lefties all that well these days.
Excuse the rant, but another thing I don't get is that managers always seem to think that left-handed batters have to prove they can hit left-handed pitching before they become everyday players, whereas right-handed batters are subject to no such restrictions. Is it because many mangers when they played the game hit right-handed? Is it because managers by and large are baseball lifers and, by definition, are presumed to be dumb?
Who knows? Anyway, just a tip here, the percentages work both ways, guys, so wise up. In the case of left-handed hitters, too often, because of the built-in prejudice that seems to be at the heart of the baseball lifers perceptions of reality, young players frequently never get the chance to demonstrate any versatility on this score. I would say that LaHair should get a shot at playing every day. His major league numbers against lefties are not all that great, but the statistical sample is insignificant. I couldn't find any splits for LaHair's minor league career, but he seems to have played every day and his numbers were pretty impressive.
Just for information, the other two Cubs regular left-handed hitters are David DeJesus and Ian Stewart. Stewart's numbers are not that great in terms of average or home runs in general, but he seems to perform equally well (or badly) against any pitching. DeJesus was a rather balanced hitter statistically throughout his career, but over the last three seasons his numbers have declined precipitously against left-handers, so you might make a good case for platooning him should you be able to find an adequate right-handed hitter to put in right-field who could catch.
That player is probably Reed Johnson, who throughout his career has been a platoon-type player even though teams have not always employed him as such. Johnson, however, was an odd signing for the Cubs as he is getting pretty long in the tooth and obviously does not figure in the team's long term plans.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Two Pieces of Good News
The first, of course, is the Cubs won their game for this week. After a rough first inning, Paul Maholm settled down, and pitched pretty well once he did so and the Cubs secured a comfortable lead. Maholm has usually done best against free-swinging teams like the Reds.
Sometimes just not having a guy or two in the lineup can benefit a team. This was the case today, as automatic outs Soriano, Soto, and Byrd were benched. Two of the replacements, Clevenger and Mather, contributed to the win and DeWitt did no harm.
Which brings me to the second item of good news, namely, that it appears the Cubs are on the verge of trading Marlon Byrd, a move that has long been overdue. I may be wrong, but I for one do not think Byrd's poor performance at the plate has a whole lot to do with his horrific beaning last season. If you look at the numbers, his production has been in serious and steady decline since the All-Star break of 2010.
By all accounts, the Cubs will have to pay all or most of his remaining salary and will likely get the young but so far disappointing Michael Bowden as part of the deal. Bowden was once a hot prospect from the Epstein era in Boston, an early round pick who seems never to have found himself either in the minors or majors. He projects now as a middle-inning reliever of modest ability.
The fact that we will wind up paying Byrd to play for someone else underscores not only the absolute incompetence of the preceding regime, but another disturbing trend of the current one. I noticed that Carlos Zambrano pitched another good game on Friday, yielding only two hits over seven innings. Unluckily, he got no support. Contrast his performance thus far with that of Chris Volstad, the player the Cubs received in return for Zambrano. In effect, the Cubs are paying Volstad something like $19MM to pitch badly. And Volstad was really, really bad yesterday. Five innings, five earned runs, six in all.
Sometimes just not having a guy or two in the lineup can benefit a team. This was the case today, as automatic outs Soriano, Soto, and Byrd were benched. Two of the replacements, Clevenger and Mather, contributed to the win and DeWitt did no harm.
Which brings me to the second item of good news, namely, that it appears the Cubs are on the verge of trading Marlon Byrd, a move that has long been overdue. I may be wrong, but I for one do not think Byrd's poor performance at the plate has a whole lot to do with his horrific beaning last season. If you look at the numbers, his production has been in serious and steady decline since the All-Star break of 2010.
By all accounts, the Cubs will have to pay all or most of his remaining salary and will likely get the young but so far disappointing Michael Bowden as part of the deal. Bowden was once a hot prospect from the Epstein era in Boston, an early round pick who seems never to have found himself either in the minors or majors. He projects now as a middle-inning reliever of modest ability.
The fact that we will wind up paying Byrd to play for someone else underscores not only the absolute incompetence of the preceding regime, but another disturbing trend of the current one. I noticed that Carlos Zambrano pitched another good game on Friday, yielding only two hits over seven innings. Unluckily, he got no support. Contrast his performance thus far with that of Chris Volstad, the player the Cubs received in return for Zambrano. In effect, the Cubs are paying Volstad something like $19MM to pitch badly. And Volstad was really, really bad yesterday. Five innings, five earned runs, six in all.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Cubs Clubhouse Happy
Now that Carlos Zambrano is gone, that is. At least according to Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Sun-Times.
You have got to wonder where they get these sportswriters. According to Gordo, the clubhouse is such a relaxed place now that the evil demon Z has moved on to Miami. It must feel great now that the burden of unreasonable expectations of professional play has been lifted.
But, hey, they are unified. They are together. These guys can finally concentrate on business. Like going 3-7 in the first ten games. Now that the pressure is off, Chris Volstad, Zambrano's replacement in the rotation, can pitch two rotten games, going 0-1 with an ERA just south of 5.
Zambrano, incidentally, has pitched pretty well in two starts for the Marlins and would be 2-0 had his closer, Health Bell, not blown safe leads in the ninth inning of each of his outings.
Go Cubs! Lets lose two tonight to celebrate.
You have got to wonder where they get these sportswriters. According to Gordo, the clubhouse is such a relaxed place now that the evil demon Z has moved on to Miami. It must feel great now that the burden of unreasonable expectations of professional play has been lifted.
But, hey, they are unified. They are together. These guys can finally concentrate on business. Like going 3-7 in the first ten games. Now that the pressure is off, Chris Volstad, Zambrano's replacement in the rotation, can pitch two rotten games, going 0-1 with an ERA just south of 5.
Zambrano, incidentally, has pitched pretty well in two starts for the Marlins and would be 2-0 had his closer, Health Bell, not blown safe leads in the ninth inning of each of his outings.
Go Cubs! Lets lose two tonight to celebrate.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Is Alfonso Soriano Really Back?
Fans and even the front office are talking up a turnaround
for Alfonso Soriano, the beleaguered, maligned, and overpaid Cubs left
fielder. Through nine games – he
had and off-day on Sunday – Soriano was batting .313.
A legitimate question is whether Soriano is back or whether
this is just an illusion. The
answer is that it is likely just an illusion. Looking behind the obvious numbers, things are not so rosy. The single biggest stat that stands out
is his BABIP, batting average on balls in play. It is .400!
That is just an astonishing number and it obviously cannot last. His best BABIP was .335 back in 2002
and his career BABIP is .313. Just
an impression, but I have watched most of the season so far and it just seems
he is getting a lot of bloop singles and seeing-eye hits. This cannot last.
Another revealing statistic is this. His slugging average is .313, woeful
even compared to his substandard production in 2009 through 2011. All his hits are singles. He has no home runs and no extra base
hits. Traditionally, at least in
recent years, Soriano has not been a slow starter and his best numbers have
been early in the season, well before the All-Star break. Last year he hit ten home runs in
April.
His strikeouts and walks are pretty much in line with career
numbers. But, batting clean-up, he
has left 17 men on base in the nine games he has started. There really is no denying that Alfonso
Soriano is a player in serious decline since the 2008 season and no amount of
happy talk is likely to change that.
One thing I will say is that he seems to have been energized
on defense. He has caught several
balls he would ordinarily have muffed.
I was out at the game last Wednesday when he made an astonishing catch
of a line drive in left field against the Brewers. Astonishing not just because it was good, but because it was
Soriano making the play. I think
it took fans a while to react just because they expected him to botch the play.
Back to Earth
Well, you knew it was too good to last. The Cubs lost another series today, getting blown out for the second straight day. Two times through the rotation and it kind of looks like last year, three quality starters, two mopes.
I have to say I disapproved of the Zambrano deal when it happened and nothing so far has changed my mind. Faithful readers of this blog will note that I maintained that Volstad had very little upside and that, statistically, he was had mediocre stuff and was easy to hit. So far in two outings, he has proved to be just that, a journeyman pitcher and nothing more.
Maholm was another questionable acquisition. His secondary numbers with the Pirates, while not great, gave you the the impression he was not so bad as he seemed. He is. Maybe worse. Watching his first two starts were about as exciting as watching batting practice on a rainy day.
Another observation: did Mike Quade take possession of Dale Sveum's mind today? I mean, only Quade could have put together this batting order: Johnson, DeWitt, Castro, Baker, Stewart, Mather, Soto, Byrd, Maholm. Allegedly because RH hitters do better against Westbrook than LH. Not today, Dale.
I have to say I disapproved of the Zambrano deal when it happened and nothing so far has changed my mind. Faithful readers of this blog will note that I maintained that Volstad had very little upside and that, statistically, he was had mediocre stuff and was easy to hit. So far in two outings, he has proved to be just that, a journeyman pitcher and nothing more.
Maholm was another questionable acquisition. His secondary numbers with the Pirates, while not great, gave you the the impression he was not so bad as he seemed. He is. Maybe worse. Watching his first two starts were about as exciting as watching batting practice on a rainy day.
Another observation: did Mike Quade take possession of Dale Sveum's mind today? I mean, only Quade could have put together this batting order: Johnson, DeWitt, Castro, Baker, Stewart, Mather, Soto, Byrd, Maholm. Allegedly because RH hitters do better against Westbrook than LH. Not today, Dale.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Break Up the Cubs
I have to say I am somewhat shocked by the offensive production the Cubs have generated in the last two games, both easy wins, 8-0 over the Brewers and 9-5 to wreck the Cardinals home opener. Good solid ABs from most of the team. They are seeing a lot more pitches and swinging less at pitcher's pitches.
All in all, a good sign that maybe holds some hope for the future. Soto and Byrd continue to stink, however. Clevenger, on the other hand, has been pretty impressive as a hitter, and also as a catcher. He was the receiver in both the near complete game performances of Samardzija and Garza respectively. Too early maybe to discern a trend, but I have never liked the way Soto calls a game, so maybe the Cubs have a better all around player in their backup catcher than they bargained for when they brought him up.
The top three in the rotation continue to shine, though Samardzija got careless with a 9-0 lead and was lucky to get through the fifth inning to claim the win. He seemed to lose his focus and edge there and started getting the ball up and failing to change speeds. Probably a lesson he needs to learn if he is to reach the higher echelon of pitchers this year.
Volstad is up on Saturday and Maholm Sunday. So far these are the weaker links, so don't expect a sweep this weekend.
All in all, a good sign that maybe holds some hope for the future. Soto and Byrd continue to stink, however. Clevenger, on the other hand, has been pretty impressive as a hitter, and also as a catcher. He was the receiver in both the near complete game performances of Samardzija and Garza respectively. Too early maybe to discern a trend, but I have never liked the way Soto calls a game, so maybe the Cubs have a better all around player in their backup catcher than they bargained for when they brought him up.
The top three in the rotation continue to shine, though Samardzija got careless with a 9-0 lead and was lucky to get through the fifth inning to claim the win. He seemed to lose his focus and edge there and started getting the ball up and failing to change speeds. Probably a lesson he needs to learn if he is to reach the higher echelon of pitchers this year.
Volstad is up on Saturday and Maholm Sunday. So far these are the weaker links, so don't expect a sweep this weekend.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Two More Depressing Games
Tuesday night's game was over in the first inning when Paul Malholm gave up five runs.
On Wednesday, a friend of mine who is a season ticket holder called with an extra ticket, so I went along. I usually don't go out to Wrigley this early in the season. There is a reason for this. It is really, really cold. Wednesday was no exception. Still, it was nice to visit and to get out to the park and I was happy to get the invite.
I wish I could say the game was exciting, but it was pretty frustrating. The Cubs got ahead in the first inning and after that it was a pitcher's duel. I love a good pitcher's duel, but some of the luster is removed when your core body temperature drops around ten degrees. Dempster pitched very well until the seventh when he served up a fat splitter to the Brewers reserve catcher that would up in the right field stands as a two-run homer.
The Cubs had a lot of opportunities to add on all day long. Once they got behind, they had scoring chances in the last three innings, but they could not deliver. One of the problems, of course, is that whenever they got a shot, Soto or Byrd or the pitcher seemed to be up and the whole rally would collapse.
The Cubs had three big problems last year: bad starting pitching after the injuries to Wells and Cashner, bad fielding, and bad hitting. They just did not score runs. They took some steps toward correcting the first problem by stockpiling decent or promising arms, but they have not really addressed the most glaring problem, which is that they just do not get on base enough or score enough runs.
I suppose, as a fan, one must be patient, but I really do not see any evidence of serious rebuilding going on right now. This is essentially the same team as last year with the subtraction of Fukudome, Ramirez, and Pena and the addition of DeJesus, Stewart, and LaHair. Really a wash.
The real problem this team has is an overly aggressive approach at the plate, especially with men on base. The opposite approach is hard to teach. Maybe the young guys can get it, but the real long-term problems are Soriano and Byrd and things will not get a whole lot better until they are replaced by Jackson and Rizzo.
Some incidental thoughts. I really like this Clevinger kid both as a hitter and a receiver. I'd like to see more of him in the lineup. Also - and I never thought I would say this - Soriano actually made a very nice play in left field on a sinking liner. The fans were so surprised that I think they didn't know whether to cheer or clean their glasses.
On Wednesday, a friend of mine who is a season ticket holder called with an extra ticket, so I went along. I usually don't go out to Wrigley this early in the season. There is a reason for this. It is really, really cold. Wednesday was no exception. Still, it was nice to visit and to get out to the park and I was happy to get the invite.
I wish I could say the game was exciting, but it was pretty frustrating. The Cubs got ahead in the first inning and after that it was a pitcher's duel. I love a good pitcher's duel, but some of the luster is removed when your core body temperature drops around ten degrees. Dempster pitched very well until the seventh when he served up a fat splitter to the Brewers reserve catcher that would up in the right field stands as a two-run homer.
The Cubs had a lot of opportunities to add on all day long. Once they got behind, they had scoring chances in the last three innings, but they could not deliver. One of the problems, of course, is that whenever they got a shot, Soto or Byrd or the pitcher seemed to be up and the whole rally would collapse.
The Cubs had three big problems last year: bad starting pitching after the injuries to Wells and Cashner, bad fielding, and bad hitting. They just did not score runs. They took some steps toward correcting the first problem by stockpiling decent or promising arms, but they have not really addressed the most glaring problem, which is that they just do not get on base enough or score enough runs.
I suppose, as a fan, one must be patient, but I really do not see any evidence of serious rebuilding going on right now. This is essentially the same team as last year with the subtraction of Fukudome, Ramirez, and Pena and the addition of DeJesus, Stewart, and LaHair. Really a wash.
The real problem this team has is an overly aggressive approach at the plate, especially with men on base. The opposite approach is hard to teach. Maybe the young guys can get it, but the real long-term problems are Soriano and Byrd and things will not get a whole lot better until they are replaced by Jackson and Rizzo.
Some incidental thoughts. I really like this Clevinger kid both as a hitter and a receiver. I'd like to see more of him in the lineup. Also - and I never thought I would say this - Soriano actually made a very nice play in left field on a sinking liner. The fans were so surprised that I think they didn't know whether to cheer or clean their glasses.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Another Bullpen Failure
Chris Volstad left after five innings in a tie game, but the bullpen once again failed the Cubs and they wound up losing 7-5. With Volstad, you pretty much get this kind of performance whenever he goes to the mound. He's usually going to eat more innings than last night, but he is going to give up four or five runs in the process. In other words, major league teams are going to take their hacks at him and he's not going to shut anyone down. I suspect the only real reason he is in the rotation instead of Wells is that he was included in the Zambrano deal and management has to prove they got something for their $15 odd million when really they did not.
I hate to be super-critical of Dale Sveum this early in the season. Maybe he will turn it around. However, the idea that you are feeling your way around a whole new team is rather bogus. These guys have a track record that is plain for anyone to examine.
Shawn Camp has been around for nine seasons and he is what he is, a mop-up guy who will eat up some innings in games you have already lost or are likely to lose. This is how Toronto used him. So to stick him out there in a winnable game and to stick with him while he struggles is just not a winning strategy. I'm OK with giving Castillo a look once the damage has been done, but, honestly, the guy you go to that early has got to be Rodrigo Lopez.
On the subject of having a record upon which to base decisions, I have a lot of problems with that batting order. First off, Castro has the worst career splits batting third than any other spot in the lineup. He is much better off hitting first or second and probably second right now is his natural position. I suspect the reason for this is that he is naturally aggressive in his approach and when he bats third, he just gets into a swing mode and cannot get out of it. You could see this last night when he hit with the bases loaded and struck out to end the game. Axford knew he would go for the first pitch, a ball, and after that he was pretty much at his mercy.
Next, what on earth is the thinking in hitting Soriano clean-up? You know this guy, throughout his career, is a better hitter with no one on base. So I'm curious what the thinking is behind this, if there is any. I know there are limited options, but I rather thought LaHair was the obvious choice here and since he has come back from his minor injury, he has certainly earned it.
On the subject of LaHair, this is one move the new regime has made that is likely to prove out in the long run. This guy looks like he can really hit and hit with power. So it is nice that he has finally got a shot. I also like what I have seen so far from Stewart. He seems to give you a professional at-bat most of the time. I haven't been impressed with DeJesus at all. He just does not look comfortable either at the plate or in the field.
When you think about it, the three players mentioned above are the only real changes to the opening day lineup from last year. Coming into the season, you had to figure that at best it was a wash. So that doesn't bode too well for this season, does it?
I hate to be super-critical of Dale Sveum this early in the season. Maybe he will turn it around. However, the idea that you are feeling your way around a whole new team is rather bogus. These guys have a track record that is plain for anyone to examine.
Shawn Camp has been around for nine seasons and he is what he is, a mop-up guy who will eat up some innings in games you have already lost or are likely to lose. This is how Toronto used him. So to stick him out there in a winnable game and to stick with him while he struggles is just not a winning strategy. I'm OK with giving Castillo a look once the damage has been done, but, honestly, the guy you go to that early has got to be Rodrigo Lopez.
On the subject of having a record upon which to base decisions, I have a lot of problems with that batting order. First off, Castro has the worst career splits batting third than any other spot in the lineup. He is much better off hitting first or second and probably second right now is his natural position. I suspect the reason for this is that he is naturally aggressive in his approach and when he bats third, he just gets into a swing mode and cannot get out of it. You could see this last night when he hit with the bases loaded and struck out to end the game. Axford knew he would go for the first pitch, a ball, and after that he was pretty much at his mercy.
Next, what on earth is the thinking in hitting Soriano clean-up? You know this guy, throughout his career, is a better hitter with no one on base. So I'm curious what the thinking is behind this, if there is any. I know there are limited options, but I rather thought LaHair was the obvious choice here and since he has come back from his minor injury, he has certainly earned it.
On the subject of LaHair, this is one move the new regime has made that is likely to prove out in the long run. This guy looks like he can really hit and hit with power. So it is nice that he has finally got a shot. I also like what I have seen so far from Stewart. He seems to give you a professional at-bat most of the time. I haven't been impressed with DeJesus at all. He just does not look comfortable either at the plate or in the field.
When you think about it, the three players mentioned above are the only real changes to the opening day lineup from last year. Coming into the season, you had to figure that at best it was a wash. So that doesn't bode too well for this season, does it?
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Finally a Win!
The Cubs probably should have swept the Nats, but at least they salvaged a victory in the final game behind a superb performance from Jeff Samardzija. I have to admit I had to hold my breath a bit when Marmol was summoned to get the final out after a Castro error extended the game enough for LaRoche to hit a home run to make the score 4-3.
I have been a bit of a skeptic all through spring training with respect to Samardzija's conversion to the starting rotation. Today's outing is beginning to make me a believer. He was still throwing 97mph in the ninth and would have had a complete game were it not for the Castro throwing error.
Some pitchers take longer than others to figure things out and sometimes being able to throw really hard can make that process even more difficult. Samardzija showed good signs of becoming a pitcher last year when he had a good full season in the bullpen.
I'm glad to see he has turned it around and he may well become the kind of impact starter this franchise seems to have had trouble producing in recent seasons. I always thought the prior regime seriously messed up his career development, forcing him to the majors much too soon and then dropping him back and forth from AAA to MLB and from starting to the bullpen.
Glad also to see LaHair in the lineup at 1B. He collected two nice doubles. He's another guy who never really had a shot during the Hendry era even though he put up monster numbers in AAA.
I have been a bit of a skeptic all through spring training with respect to Samardzija's conversion to the starting rotation. Today's outing is beginning to make me a believer. He was still throwing 97mph in the ninth and would have had a complete game were it not for the Castro throwing error.
Some pitchers take longer than others to figure things out and sometimes being able to throw really hard can make that process even more difficult. Samardzija showed good signs of becoming a pitcher last year when he had a good full season in the bullpen.
I'm glad to see he has turned it around and he may well become the kind of impact starter this franchise seems to have had trouble producing in recent seasons. I always thought the prior regime seriously messed up his career development, forcing him to the majors much too soon and then dropping him back and forth from AAA to MLB and from starting to the bullpen.
Glad also to see LaHair in the lineup at 1B. He collected two nice doubles. He's another guy who never really had a shot during the Hendry era even though he put up monster numbers in AAA.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Deja Vu All over Again
Chalk this loss up to the bullpen, specifically Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol. Wood managed to get two quick outs in the 8th inning before allowing an opposite field home run to Espinosa and coming unglued.
After two more hits, Sveum turned things over to Marmol who faced four additional batters without getting a single out. Either Marmol has just lost his stuff or the Cubs are trying to change his style without success. He is throwing more fastballs and his slider is not biting. Whatever is wrong, both he and Wood stink so far.
If this continues, it is going to be a really long season for Cubs fans. Really long. They have gone from being a team with potentially a very strong bullpen - Russell, Samardzija, Cashner, Wood, Marshall, Marmol - to one that is simply a train wreck.
One plus is that Sveum managed to pull both of his troubled hurlers, albeit only after each had allowed four consecutive batters to reach base with two outs in the 8th inning which began with the team seemingly cruising to victory with a 4-2 lead.
Garza, like Dempster, pitched well, this time under substantially less favorable conditions for pitchers than on opening day.
After two more hits, Sveum turned things over to Marmol who faced four additional batters without getting a single out. Either Marmol has just lost his stuff or the Cubs are trying to change his style without success. He is throwing more fastballs and his slider is not biting. Whatever is wrong, both he and Wood stink so far.
If this continues, it is going to be a really long season for Cubs fans. Really long. They have gone from being a team with potentially a very strong bullpen - Russell, Samardzija, Cashner, Wood, Marshall, Marmol - to one that is simply a train wreck.
One plus is that Sveum managed to pull both of his troubled hurlers, albeit only after each had allowed four consecutive batters to reach base with two outs in the 8th inning which began with the team seemingly cruising to victory with a 4-2 lead.
Garza, like Dempster, pitched well, this time under substantially less favorable conditions for pitchers than on opening day.
More Thoughts on Opening Day
It's just one game, but it is interesting to see how quickly the honeymoon, at least with Dale Sveum, has ended. I rather think deservedly so. Managers are rarely actually responsible for winning games. They are frequently responsible for losses, and in the case of Thursday's game, it is hard not to fault Sveum.
Removing Dempster was the right move, but sticking with Wood when he obviously did not have it was not. I've watched Kerry Wood a lot since his move to the bullpen. You can always tell from the first batter if he is going to be effective or not. Cubs managers generally defer to his iconic status and allow him to remain in the game to lose the lead or the game. Wood is either lights out or awful. He is also rarely effective when he comes in with men on base as opposed to starting the inning. The right move was to take him out for a lefty after the Zimmerman walk, but no one was warming up.
Actually, Cubs management as a whole genuflected to Wood's iconic status by signing him in the first place. Wood is not Kid-K anymore.
Another knock on Sveum. It is always a mistake to start Baker against a right-hander, and an even greater error to play him at first base. With a runner on third base and the game on the line, any left-handed batter is preferable to allowing Baker to hit. This is just a question of knowing your players. Perhaps Sveum will learn this as the season progresses, but you would think a management team that is virtually obsessed with statistical analysis would have figured this out already.
Finally, this whole aggressive running game is fine if you have the players to do it. Statistically, it is generally considered to be risky at best. I've got no problem forcing matters on the bases with Castro or DeJesus or Mather or even Barney, but Soriano? Come on.
And the whole run on contact thing with a runner on third and one out was a major blunder. You've got two chances to tie the game in that spot, so you cannot give them up on one swing when everybody in the park knows what you are going to do. I guess it means that you do not think your hitter can hit the ball to the right side or in the air or even bunt. So why is he batting then?
Removing Dempster was the right move, but sticking with Wood when he obviously did not have it was not. I've watched Kerry Wood a lot since his move to the bullpen. You can always tell from the first batter if he is going to be effective or not. Cubs managers generally defer to his iconic status and allow him to remain in the game to lose the lead or the game. Wood is either lights out or awful. He is also rarely effective when he comes in with men on base as opposed to starting the inning. The right move was to take him out for a lefty after the Zimmerman walk, but no one was warming up.
Actually, Cubs management as a whole genuflected to Wood's iconic status by signing him in the first place. Wood is not Kid-K anymore.
Another knock on Sveum. It is always a mistake to start Baker against a right-hander, and an even greater error to play him at first base. With a runner on third base and the game on the line, any left-handed batter is preferable to allowing Baker to hit. This is just a question of knowing your players. Perhaps Sveum will learn this as the season progresses, but you would think a management team that is virtually obsessed with statistical analysis would have figured this out already.
Finally, this whole aggressive running game is fine if you have the players to do it. Statistically, it is generally considered to be risky at best. I've got no problem forcing matters on the bases with Castro or DeJesus or Mather or even Barney, but Soriano? Come on.
And the whole run on contact thing with a runner on third and one out was a major blunder. You've got two chances to tie the game in that spot, so you cannot give them up on one swing when everybody in the park knows what you are going to do. I guess it means that you do not think your hitter can hit the ball to the right side or in the air or even bunt. So why is he batting then?
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Live Blog: Opening Day 9
Lidge to pitch the ninth for the Nationals. Stewart just misses a home run, but I've got to question Sveum' strategy. Baker swings at everything and they have the pinch runner Mather going on contact. Out easily on a two-hopper to third base. Byrd's up. Game over. Byrd strikes out.
Tough loss, but you have to say the Cubs blew a winnable game with some really sloppy play and bad relief work from Wood and Marmol.
Welcome to the new Cubs, just like the old Cubs.
I've got to say that watching both teams, even accounting for the weather conditions, you've got a long wait to see either of them score runs. In games like this, it all boils down to giving up outs in terms of errors and misplays and bad base-running. The Cubs came out on top in both of these categories and lost the game as a result.
Tough loss, but you have to say the Cubs blew a winnable game with some really sloppy play and bad relief work from Wood and Marmol.
Welcome to the new Cubs, just like the old Cubs.
I've got to say that watching both teams, even accounting for the weather conditions, you've got a long wait to see either of them score runs. In games like this, it all boils down to giving up outs in terms of errors and misplays and bad base-running. The Cubs came out on top in both of these categories and lost the game as a result.
Live Blog: Opening Day 8
Bottom of the eighth. Brand new ballgame, as they say. Cubs get a break when Espinosa boots a routine grounder. They need to take advantage of this break. Nothing doing. Ninth inning coming up.
Top of the ninth. Marmol in to pitch. He looks OK, more fastballs than I remember. Tracy hits a hard liner off the wall. Another misplay by the Cubs, though, DeJesus got all turned around. Should have caught it even though it was hit hard. Desmond beats Marmol with a single off the end of his bat. Looked like a pretty good pitch. Once again, you cannot give away outs like the Cubs do and win.
Top of the ninth. Marmol in to pitch. He looks OK, more fastballs than I remember. Tracy hits a hard liner off the wall. Another misplay by the Cubs, though, DeJesus got all turned around. Should have caught it even though it was hit hard. Desmond beats Marmol with a single off the end of his bat. Looked like a pretty good pitch. Once again, you cannot give away outs like the Cubs do and win.
Live Blog: Opening Day 7
Murray still in the booth to start the eighth, but Strasburg is taken down for a pinch hitter. Dempster still looks good, but Baker gave the Nats an out by misplaying a ground ball into a hit. I really do not like Baker in the field, especially at first base. After striking out Espinosa, Sveum makes his first move and replaces Dempster with Wood. I have to say I agree with this. Dempster at 108 pitches. Zimmerman has hit Dempster hard all day, though I rather mistrust Wood coming in mid-inning. Desmond steals a base on Kerry Wood, who then starts nibbling and walks Zimmerman. Oh-oh, wild pitch. Wood is struggling, walks LaRoche. Maybe it wasn't such a hot idea to replace Dempster after all.
Wood doesn't seem to be able to close the door, gets ahead but can't make an out pitch. I've seen this act before and usually it doesn't end well. Sveum is being pretty rigid here. When Wood is like this, it means trouble. Fortunately, Barney makes a really good play on a grounder up the middle to save the day.
Wood doesn't seem to be able to close the door, gets ahead but can't make an out pitch. I've seen this act before and usually it doesn't end well. Sveum is being pretty rigid here. When Wood is like this, it means trouble. Fortunately, Barney makes a really good play on a grounder up the middle to save the day.
Live blog: Opening Day 6
Top of the seventh. Dempster is cruising along. Next inning may be the test as he is closing in on 90 pitches.
Bottom of the seventh. I may have to mute the TV sound. The insufferable Bill Murray is singing the stretch, which means he will chatter on through any exciting plays that may occur in the bottom half of the inning.
Lots of times on days like this, the game will break down to outs the other team gives you. The Cubs gave the Nats an out early in the game, but it didn't matter. The Cubs got an out from the Nationals later and turned it into a run. The Cubs got another break to start this inning when Desmond played a tough chance into a hit that should have been called an error. Byrd, however, promptly hit into a double play.
Bottom of the seventh. I may have to mute the TV sound. The insufferable Bill Murray is singing the stretch, which means he will chatter on through any exciting plays that may occur in the bottom half of the inning.
Lots of times on days like this, the game will break down to outs the other team gives you. The Cubs gave the Nats an out early in the game, but it didn't matter. The Cubs got an out from the Nationals later and turned it into a run. The Cubs got another break to start this inning when Desmond played a tough chance into a hit that should have been called an error. Byrd, however, promptly hit into a double play.
Live Blog: Opening Day 5
Top of the fifth. Dempster has an easy inning and actually gets the first two guys in the Nats order out.
Bottom of the fifth. Nothing doing, three up and three down. Curiously, the Cubs are not striking out much against Strasburg, who is a strikeout pitcher.
Top of the sixth. Ryan Zimmerman must be feeling bad, having hit two likely homers that came down well inside the park. Dempster continued to dominate LaRoche and Werth. I notice Gorzelanny is warming up. I wonder if Strasburg is on a pitch count, although so far he has thrown only 60.
Bottom of the sixth. Strasburg still in there. Nothing doing for the Cubs including a couple of whiffs.
Bottom of the fifth. Nothing doing, three up and three down. Curiously, the Cubs are not striking out much against Strasburg, who is a strikeout pitcher.
Top of the sixth. Ryan Zimmerman must be feeling bad, having hit two likely homers that came down well inside the park. Dempster continued to dominate LaRoche and Werth. I notice Gorzelanny is warming up. I wonder if Strasburg is on a pitch count, although so far he has thrown only 60.
Bottom of the sixth. Strasburg still in there. Nothing doing for the Cubs including a couple of whiffs.
Live Blog: Opening Day 4
Dempster sure can dominate crappy players at the bottom of the order, so he gets a nice easy inning here.
Cubs get lucky after Soriano's single. Stewart, who is not having a good day, hit the ball all of two feet for the second time, but the catcher made an ill-advised bad throw to second that went into CF. Balanced, unfortunately, by a really dumb steal attempt by Soriano. Caught stealing, naturally. Baker walks, Byrd singles home a run. Could have been a bigger inning, but at least they are on the board.
Cubs get lucky after Soriano's single. Stewart, who is not having a good day, hit the ball all of two feet for the second time, but the catcher made an ill-advised bad throw to second that went into CF. Balanced, unfortunately, by a really dumb steal attempt by Soriano. Caught stealing, naturally. Baker walks, Byrd singles home a run. Could have been a bigger inning, but at least they are on the board.
Live Bog: Opening Day 3
Dempster looked a lot better this inning against the bottom part of the order. Three quick outs.
Eight pitch inning. Baker hit the first pitch hard. Byrd struck out on four pitches. Not much doing here, is there?
Top of the third. First error of the season for Stewart who just plain muffed a routine ground ball. Dempster does not seem the same pitcher from the stretch so far. Walked Espinosa again, then Zimmerman to load the bases. Came back to get out of it. Dempster is getting squeezed a little by the plate ump, but to me he was on the point of having a typical meltdown inning until Werth bailed him out by swinging for the fences.
Bottom of the third. Dempster is the only guy so far to work the count even though he grounded out, he saw five pitches. DeJesus gets a hit, but Barney grounds out to end the inning.
Eight pitch inning. Baker hit the first pitch hard. Byrd struck out on four pitches. Not much doing here, is there?
Top of the third. First error of the season for Stewart who just plain muffed a routine ground ball. Dempster does not seem the same pitcher from the stretch so far. Walked Espinosa again, then Zimmerman to load the bases. Came back to get out of it. Dempster is getting squeezed a little by the plate ump, but to me he was on the point of having a typical meltdown inning until Werth bailed him out by swinging for the fences.
Bottom of the third. Dempster is the only guy so far to work the count even though he grounded out, he saw five pitches. DeJesus gets a hit, but Barney grounds out to end the inning.
Live Blog: Opening Day 2
So far Dempster has nothing. Doesn't seem to have control of his breaking stuff. Single and a walk. Then he started throwing fastballs to Zimmerman. Got one up in the zone to induce a long fly to CF that would have been a homer or a double on an ordinary day. Came back nicely to strike out LaRoche and get an easy fly to RF to end the inning. Dempster threw a lot of pitches that inning and didn't seem right, but no damage done.
Could be a long day. Three pitches, two outs. Then Castro hit an easy popup on the second pitch that mysteriously fell right next to the mound. Soriano hit a long fly on the second pitch to end the inning. Nothing is going to carry today. These guys need to stop swinging at pitcher's pitches.
Could be a long day. Three pitches, two outs. Then Castro hit an easy popup on the second pitch that mysteriously fell right next to the mound. Soriano hit a long fly on the second pitch to end the inning. Nothing is going to carry today. These guys need to stop swinging at pitcher's pitches.
Live Blog: Opening Day 1
Just tuned in to see Bill Murray jog around the bases wheezing most of the way. Got to say he is not my favorite professional Cubs fan. Really hammed it up. Hope this is not a precursor of things to come.
Looks like the wind is howling in from CF. That's got to help Dempster. Neither of these teams are built to score runs, so this should be a low scoring affair unless Dempster is wild.
Disappointing to see Baker at 1B. Guess LaHair's back is still bothering him.
Looks like the wind is howling in from CF. That's got to help Dempster. Neither of these teams are built to score runs, so this should be a low scoring affair unless Dempster is wild.
Disappointing to see Baker at 1B. Guess LaHair's back is still bothering him.
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