Fans and even the front office are talking up a turnaround
for Alfonso Soriano, the beleaguered, maligned, and overpaid Cubs left
fielder. Through nine games – he
had and off-day on Sunday – Soriano was batting .313.
A legitimate question is whether Soriano is back or whether
this is just an illusion. The
answer is that it is likely just an illusion. Looking behind the obvious numbers, things are not so rosy. The single biggest stat that stands out
is his BABIP, batting average on balls in play. It is .400!
That is just an astonishing number and it obviously cannot last. His best BABIP was .335 back in 2002
and his career BABIP is .313. Just
an impression, but I have watched most of the season so far and it just seems
he is getting a lot of bloop singles and seeing-eye hits. This cannot last.
Another revealing statistic is this. His slugging average is .313, woeful
even compared to his substandard production in 2009 through 2011. All his hits are singles. He has no home runs and no extra base
hits. Traditionally, at least in
recent years, Soriano has not been a slow starter and his best numbers have
been early in the season, well before the All-Star break. Last year he hit ten home runs in
April.
His strikeouts and walks are pretty much in line with career
numbers. But, batting clean-up, he
has left 17 men on base in the nine games he has started. There really is no denying that Alfonso
Soriano is a player in serious decline since the 2008 season and no amount of
happy talk is likely to change that.
One thing I will say is that he seems to have been energized
on defense. He has caught several
balls he would ordinarily have muffed.
I was out at the game last Wednesday when he made an astonishing catch
of a line drive in left field against the Brewers. Astonishing not just because it was good, but because it was
Soriano making the play. I think
it took fans a while to react just because they expected him to botch the play.
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