The Home Stand

I've been a little tardy in keeping up with the Cubs on their recent stretch of baseball which, by and large, has shown belated signs of life.  The Cubs are 12-4 since they brought up Anthony Rizzo, or at least since they said they were bringing him up.

Which is probably a strong argument in favor of the influence an impact player can have on a team both in terms of his contribution and the psychological effect of confidence he brings.  I think Rizzo has had this kind of influence, but we should note that the Cubs still don't score enough runs and that the real reason for this is they just don't get on base enough.  DeJesus is an acceptable lead-off hitter (.354 OBP), but Castro, although he hits for a high average, just doesn't get on base enough and doesn't make productive outs.  So the three, four, and five hitters get fewer chances to put up so-called crooked numbers than they should.

Still, at least the team is providing entertainment.  Mostly this streak is the result of solid, really good pitching.  The Cubs have scored sixty runs in the twelve victories, but the most revealing stat in the string of wins is that they gave up only eighteen runs in their wins.

With respect to the improvement of their pitching, the impact player here seems to be Travis Wood, who has established himself as a pretty solid starting pitcher over the course of the last month or so.  That and the stabilization of the bullpen with Corpas, Camp, Russell, and Marmol turning in pretty effective work.

It is kind of ironic then that all the trade talk seems to center around trading two very good pitchers, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster.  Don't misunderstand me here.  The Cubs will and should trade Ryan Dempster.  Dempster is 36 years old and despite his having his best season since 2008, he is a free agent the Cubs have no intention of extending who has been on the DL twice already this year.

Garza is another story, however, and the Cubs would do well to think this one over very carefully.  Good rich teams like the Cubs are extending guys like Garza, not trading them for uncertain prospects.  In my mind, the replacement cost is pretty high.  For two reasons really.  Teams are not giving up their best AAA and AA can't miss pitchers.  Secondly, if the guys you get don't pan out right away, you are back on the free agent market looking at the Paul Maholms of the world or signing guys just like the guy you traded for more money.