Sunday, August 10, 2014

Javier Baez

Mixed reviews so far for Baez.  The die-hards, of course, welcome him as the second coming of Ernie Banks or something.  Witness the standing ovation in his first at-bat.  Are these fans nuts, or just desperate?

Anyway, I'm of two minds on the issue as well.  On the one hand, I would like to see the kid succeed, and I do see the makings of a really talented hitter somewhere in there, at least a guy with enormous power potential.

On the other hand, however, there is the just simply out-of-control play, even in the field.  Baez just simply strikes out too often, and if he continues to do so, I wonder whether he can ever become a real star on a winning team.  The sobering thing is that not only does he strike out about a quarter of the time, but his strikeout rate has increased at each level, from 21% in 2012 to 26% in 2013 to 30% this season before the promotion.

Right now he looks over-matched by major league pitching, despite the three home runs and the respectable average.  Ten Ks in 23 ABs is just awful.  The thing is that you don't have to offer at every pitch.  When Baez settled down in the AB in which he doubled yesterday, he made the pitcher throw a strike.  Right now no pitcher in his right mind should throw him a strike.

On a deeper level, I wonder what is it about this organization that they are seemingly unable to develop players through the minor league system who do not strike out all the time or exercise much plate discipline?  I know this is a problem throughout baseball, but, geez, isn't there anyone down there who knows a strike from a ball?

There is quite a litany here of failures in this respect going back to Tyler Colvin and Brett Jackson.  Junior Lake, Mike Olt...  Even Alcantara is pushing a 30% rate though he does take walks.  It is simply the case that teams that strike out that often and do not take walks do not win consistently.

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